918 resultados para Almost always algebra
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We describe an unprecedented radiation of sanguinicolid blood flukes ( Digenea: Sanguinicolidae) from two species of Labridae (Choerodon venustus and C. cauteroma), seven species of Mullidae (Mulloidichthys vanicolensis, Parupeneus barberinoides, P. barberinus, P. bifasciatus, P. cyclostomus, P. indicus and P. multifasciatus) and ten species of Siganidae (Siganus argenteus, S. corallinus, S. doliatus, S. fuscescens, S. lineatus, S. margaritiferus, S. puellus, S. punctatus, S. virgatus and S. vulpinus) from sites off Australia and Palau. The flukes were morphologically similar in having the combination of a long thread-like body, tegumental spines in lateral transverse rows, a vestigial oral sucker bearing concentric rows of fine spines, an H-shaped intestine, a cirrussac, a notch level with the male genital pore, a lateral or post-ovarian uterus, a uterine chamber and separate genital pores. These species are divided into two genera on the basis of testis number. Sanguinicolids from Siganus fuscescens have a single large testis between the intestinal bifurcation and the ovary and are placed in Ankistromeces Nolan & Cribb, 2004. Species from the remaining nine species of Siganidae, Labridae and Mullidae are placed in Phthinomita n. g.; these species have two testes, the anterior testis being large and between the intestinal bifurcation and the ovary whereas the small posterior testis is at the posterior end of the body and appears rudimentary or degenerate and probably non-functional. The second internal transcribed spacer (ITS2) of ribosomal DNA ( rDNA) from 29 host/parasite/location combinations (h/p/l) was sequenced together with that of Ankistromeces mariae Nolan & Cribb, 2004 for comparison. From 135 samples we found 19 distinct genotypes which were interpreted as representing at least that many species. Replicate sequences were obtained for 25 of 30 h/p/l combinations ( including A. mariae); there was no intraspecific variation between replicates sequences for any of these. Interspecific variation ranged from 1 - 41 base differences (0.3 - 12.7% sequence divergence). The 19 putative species were difficult to recognise by morphological examination. We describe 13 new species; we do not describe (= name) six species characterised solely by molecular sequences and three putative species for which morphological data is available but for which molecular data is not. We have neither morphological nor molecular data for sanguinicolids harboured in five hosts species ( Siganus margaritiferus, S. puellus, Choerodon cauteroma, Parupeneus indicus and P. multifasciatus) in which we have seen infections. Where host species were infected in different localities they almost always harboured distinct species. Some host species ( for example, S. argenteus and S. lineatus from Lizard Island) harboured two or three species in a single geographical location. This suggests that, for parts of this system, parasite speciation has outstripped host speciation. Distance analysis of ITS2 showed species from each host family ( Siganidae, Mullidae and Labridae) did not form monophyletic clades to the exclusion of species from other host families. However, a host defined clade was formed by the sequences from sanguinicolids from S. fuscescens.
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Monogenic mutations leading to excessive activation of the mineralocorticoid pathway result, almost always, in suppressed renin and hypertension in adult life and sometimes in hypokalaemia and alkalosis, which can be severe. In most of these syndromes, precise molecular changes in specific steroidogenic or effector genes have been identified, permitting appreciation of (1) pathophysiology, (2) great diversity of phenotype and (3) possibility of genetic methods of diagnosis. Yet to be achieved elucidation of the genetic basis of familial hyperaldosteronism type 11, the most common and clinically significant of them, will enhance detection of primary aldosteronism, currently the commonest specifically treatable and potentially curable form of hypertension. While classic, complete-phenotype presentations of monogenic forms of mineralocorticoid hypertension are rarely recognised, more subtle genetic expression causing less florid manifestations could represent a significant proportion of so-called 'essential hypertension.'
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A number of systematic conservation planning tools are available to aid in making land use decisions. Given the increasing worldwide use and application of reserve design tools, including measures of site irreplaceability, it is essential that methodological differences and their potential effect on conservation planning outcomes are understood. We compared the irreplaceability of sites for protecting ecosystems within the Brigalow Belt Bioregion, Queensland, Australia, using two alternative reserve system design tools, Marxan and C-Plan. We set Marxan to generate multiple reserve systems that met targets with minimal area; the first scenario ignored spatial objectives, while the second selected compact groups of areas. Marxan calculates the irreplaceability of each site as the proportion of solutions in which it occurs for each of these set scenarios. In contrast, C-Plan uses a statistical estimate of irreplaceability as the likelihood that each site is needed in all combinations of sites that satisfy the targets. We found that sites containing rare ecosystems are almost always irreplaceable regardless of the method. Importantly, Marxan and C-Plan gave similar outcomes when spatial objectives were ignored. Marxan with a compactness objective defined twice as much area as irreplaceable, including many sites with relatively common ecosystems. However, targets for all ecosystems were met using a similar amount of area in C-Plan and Marxan, even with compactness. The importance of differences in the outcomes of using the two methods will depend on the question being addressed; in general, the use of two or more complementary tools is beneficial.
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The successful development and optimisation of optically-driven micromachines will be greatly enhanced by the ability to computationally model the optical forces and torques applied to such devices. In principle, this can be done by calculating the light-scattering properties of such devices. However, while fast methods exist for scattering calculations for spheres and axisymmetric particles, optically-driven micromachines will almost always be more geometrically complex. Fortunately, such micromachines will typically possess a high degree of symmetry, typically discrete rotational symmetry. Many current designs for optically-driven micromachines are also mirror-symmetric about a plane. We show how such symmetries can be used to reduce the computational time required by orders of magnitude. Similar improvements are also possible for other highly-symmetric objects such as crystals. We demonstrate the efficacy of such methods by modelling the optical trapping of a cube, and show that even simple shapes can function as optically-driven micromachines.
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Esta pesquisa propõe um estudo do Evangelho produzido pela comunidade de Mateus, mais especificamente, o trabalho consiste em demonstrar a possibilidade de leitura desse evangelho a partir de implicações econômicas no seio da comunidade que o produziu. Entendemos o Evangelho de Mateus como um dos diversos movimentos judaicos do período pós-destruição do templo em 70 d.C.. Por causa desse contexto percebemos que o Evangelho de Mateus, debate com uma realidade de disputas religiosas desse período. É importante frisar que essas questões possuem vertentes e não terminam no âmbito religioso. As disputas religiosas conseqüentemente têm relações com todas as dimensões da vida, entre elas a econômica. Mateus resignifica para seu grupo a questão das posses, das riquezas, em virtude de uma realidade de crise econômica. E em meio a essa crise o Evangelho de Mateus, a partir de um trabalho redacional, dá novos significados à vida de fé da comunidade à luz das histórias de Jesus recebidas das fontes Marcos e Lucas. Este estudo justifica-se pela lacuna existente no material produzido sobre o Evangelho de Mateus, uma vez que o que é produzido a respeito dessas narrativas quase sempre se preocupa em analisar o conflito entre a comunidade de Mateus e os Fariseus somente no campo religioso deixando de lado as demais possibilidades, entre elas as relações econômicas.(AU)
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O estudo realizado nesta pesquisa tem como foco aprofundar as discussões e reflexões sobre o processo criativo e sua importância na relação pedagógica a partir das práticas de professores de Artes. Quando abordamos o processo de criar do aluno e a experimentação no contexto escolar, que possibilidades, limites e obstáculos se manifestam? Trata-se de uma investigação de cunho qualitativo, realizada com base teórica em pesquisa bibliográfica, tendo como referenciais: Paulo Freire (2007) e sua discussão sobre a importância da relação-pedagógica para a construção da autonomia do aluno; Ana Mae Barbosa (2008) e seus estudos sobre a Arte-educação no Brasil e a formação do professor de Arte; os Parâmetros Curriculares Nacionais de Arte (1998) com ênfase na recomendação sobre a articulação dos três eixos metodológicos: criação/produção em Arte, fruição estética, e reflexão; Porcher (1982) e sua discussão sobre a importância da Educação Artística e Albano (1998) com o seu relato sobre a experiência vivida entre a artista Tarsila do Amaral e o seu aprendiz Tuneu. A pesquisa de campo foi desenvolvida com a realização de entrevistas com três professoras de Arte e três alunos (um aluno de cada professora), de duas escolas estaduais da Rede Pública de Ensino de São Bernardo do Campo e uma escola estadual da Rede Pública de Ensino de Diadema. Para o tratamento dos dados coletados nas entrevistas foi utilizada a Metodologia de Análise de Conteúdo proposta por Franco (2008). A análise dos dados demonstrou que o processar de ideias, a experimentação e todo o processo criativo do aluno passa quase sempre desapercebido na sua importância enquanto prática pedagógica desenvolvida no contexto escolar nas aulas de Arte. Os dados apresentados na pesquisa, quanto à formação do professor, indicam um grau elevado formativo, mas que, quando comparado à prática pedagógica, percebemos lacunas sobre a importância do papel da relação pedagógica no processo criativo do aluno. Apesar disto se apresentar como uma realidade na pesquisa, não poderíamos deixar de mencionar que, mesmo tendo uma pequena representação, observamos uma prática metodológica que cristaliza positivamente o processo criativo do aluno como forma de construção da autonomia, onde o aluno é presenteado com uma relação pedagógica que promove o experimentar, o criar e todas as formas de se expressar, de se fazer atuante, de expressar sua visão de mundo.
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A presente pesquisa analisou a posição e ação política nas Assembleias de Deus do Brasil nos períodos 1930-1945 e 1978-1988. Defendemos a tese de que desde 1930 há no interior do pentecostalismo brasileiro posições e intervenções no mundo da política. Tanto no período de 1930-1945 como o de 1978-1988 nossas análises serão realizadas a partir das temporalidades discutidas por Giorgio Agamben: chronos, aiôn e kairos. No que diz respeito ao primeiro período 1930-1945, as pesquisas quase sempre vinculam o discurso escatológico do pentecostalismo a processos de alienação e não envolvimento com a política partidária. Entretanto, acredita-se que as narrativas escatológicas não foram causa de certo afastamento da esfera pública brasileira, mas sim efeito de processos de exclusão aos quais homens e mulheres de pertença pentecostal estiveram circunscritos. Doutrinas como a escatologia e a pneumatologia foram potencializadoras de processos que aqui denominamos de biopotência. Já no segundo período, de 1978-1988, a posição e a ação política que predominaram no pentecostalismo estiveram relacionadas com a biopolítica. Chamamos de capítulo intermedário ou de transição o período correspondente às datas 1946-1977. Nele descreveremos e analisaremos personalidades pentecostais de destaque no campo da política brasileira. Metodologicamente, fizemos nossa análise a partir de artigos publicados no órgão oficial de comunicação da denominação religiosa em questão, o jornal Mensageiro da Paz. Esse periódico circula desde 1930. Além dos artigos, destacamos também as autoras e os autores, todas elas e todos eles figuras de destaque no assembleianismo. Ao longo da pesquisa questionamos a ideia do apoliticismo pentecostal. Defendemos a tese de que desde 1930, que é o início de nossa pesquisa, há posição e ação política nas Assembleias de Deus. Como resultado disso, questionamos a ideia do apoliticismo pentecostal. Nossa hipótese é de que no período 1930-1945 o pentecostalismo foi um polo de biopotência. Se a biopolítica é o poder sobre a vida, a biopotência é o poder da vida. Doutrinas como a escatologia e pneumatologia contribuíram para que nos espaços marginais onde se reuniam os pentecostais fossem criados novos modelos de sociabilidade e de cooperação; eram também espaços de criação de outras narrativas e de crítica a modelos hegemônicos e excludentes. O pentecostalismo foi um movimento que promoveu a dignidade humana de sujeitos subalternos.
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While storytelling in conversation has been extensively investigated, much less is known about storytelling in the English language classroom, particularly teachers telling their personal experience stories, termed teacher personal narratives in this study. Teacher personal narratives, a combination of the ancient art of human storytelling and the current practices of teaching, offer an innovative approach to language teaching and learning. This thesis examines teacher personal narrative use in Japanese university English language classrooms and is of relevance to both practicing classroom teachers and teacher educators because it explores the role, significance, and effectiveness of personal stories told by teachers. The pedagogical implications which the findings may have for language teaching and learning as well as for teacher education programs are also discussed. Four research questions were posed: 1. What are the characteristics of teacher personal narratives? 2. When, how, and why do language teachers use personal narratives in the classroom? 3. What is the reaction of learners to teacher personal narratives? 4. How do teacher personal narratives provide opportunities for student learning? A mixed methods approach using the tradition of multiple case studies provided an in-depth exploration of the personal narratives of four teachers. Data collection consisted of classroom observations and audio recordings, teacher and student semi-structured interviews, student diaries, and Japan-wide teacher questionnaires. Ninety-seven teacher personal narratives were analyzed for their structural and linguistic features. The findings showed that the narrative elements of orientation, complication, and evaluation are almost always present in these stories, and that discourse and tense markers may aid in student noticing of the input which can lead to eventual student output. The data also demonstrated that reasons for telling narratives mainly fall into two categories: affectiveoriented and pedagogical-oriented purposes. This study has shown that there are significant differences between conversational storytelling and educational storytelling.
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This paper will argue that the American economy could and will absorb the recent shocks, and that in the longer run (within a matter of years), it will somehow convert the revealed weaknesses to its advantage. America has a long record of learning from its excesses to improve the working of its particular brand of capitalism, dating back to the imposition of antitrust controls on the robber barons in the late 1800s and the enhancement of investor protection after the 1929 crash. The American economy has experienced market imperfections of all kinds but it almost always has found, true, not perfect, but fairly reliable regulatory answers and has managed to adapt to change, (e. g. Dodd-Frank Act on financial stability). The U.S. has many times pioneered in the elaboration of both theoretical and policy oriented solutions for conflicts between markets and government to increase economic welfare (Bernanke, 2008, p. 425). There is no single reason why it should not turn the latest financial calamities to its advantage. At the same time, to regain confidence in capitalism as a global system, global efforts are indispensable. To identify some of the global economic conflicts that have a lot to do with U.S. markets in particular, we seek answers to global systemic questions.
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In line with the model of grammar competition (Kroch, 1989; 2001), according to which the change in the syntactic domains is a process that develops via competition between different grammars, we describe and analyze the superficial constructions V2 / V3 in matrices / roots sentences of brazilian personal letters of the 19th and 20th centuries. The corpus, composed by 154 personal letters of Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Norte, is divided into three century halves: (i) latter half of the 19th century; (ii) first half of the 20th century; and (iii) latter half of the 20th century. Our focus was the observation of the nature of preverbal constituents in superficial constructions V2 (verb in second position in the sentence) and V3 (verb in third position in the sentence), with a special attention on the position of the subject. Based on the various diachronical studies about the Portuguese ordination standards (Ambar (1992); Ribeiro (1995, 2001); Paixão de Sousa (2004); Paiva (2011), Coelho and Martins (2009, 2012)), our study sought to realize what are empirical ordination standards that involve superficial constructions V2 / V3 and how these patterns structure syntactically within a formal theoretical perspective (Chomsky, 1981; 1986), more specifically, in accordance with studies of Antonelli (2011), and Costa & Galves (2002). The survey results show that the data from the second half of the 19th century – unlike the first and second half of the 20th century data – have a greater balance in relation to the syntactic nature of preverbal constituent (contiguous or not), so that, in this period, the occurrence of orders with the subject in a preverbal position arrives at, at most, 52% (231/444 data); while in the 48% (213/444 data) remaining, the preverbal constituents are represented by a non-subject constituent, almost always an adverbial adjunct. Seen the results, we advocate that the brazilian personal letters of the 19th century have ordination patterns associated with a V2 system and an SV system, configuring, therefore, a possible competition process between different grammars that instantiate or a V2 system or an SV system. In other words, the brazilian letters of the 19th century instantiate a competition between the grammar of Classic Portuguese (a V2 system) and the grammars of Brazilian Portuguese and European Portuguese (an SV system). Therefore, that period is subject to the completion of two distinct parametric markings: (i) verb moved to the Fin core (grammar of Classic Portuguese) and (ii) verb moved to the T core (grammar of Brazilian Portuguese /European Portuguese). On the other hand, in the personal letters of the 20th century (first and second halves), there is a clear increase in ordenation patterns associated with the SV system, which shows more stable.
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The Buchans ore bodies of central Newfoundland represent some of the highest grade VMS deposits ever mined. These Kuroko-type deposits are also known for the well developed and preserved nature of the mechanically transported deposits. The deposits are hosted in Cambro-Ordovician, dominantly calc-alkaline, bimodal volcanic and epiclastic sequences of the Notre Dame Subzone, Newfoundland Appalachians. Stratigraphic relationships in this zone are complicated by extensively developed, brittledominated Silurian thrust faulting. Hydrothermal alteration of host rocks is a common feature of nearly all VMS deposits, and the recognition of these zones has been a key exploration tool. Alteration of host rocks has long been described to be spatially associated with the Buchans ore bodies, most notably with the larger in-situ deposits. This report represents a base-line study in which a complete documentation of the geochemical variance, in terms of both primary (igneous) and alteration effects, is presented from altered volcanic rocks in the vicinity of the Lucky Strike deposit (LSZ), the largest in-situ deposit in the Buchans camp. Packages of altered rocks also occur away from the immediate mining areas and constitute new targets for exploration. These zones, identified mostly by recent and previous drilling, represent untested targets and include the Powerhouse (PHZ), Woodmans Brook (WBZ) and Airport (APZ) alteration zones, as well as the Middle Branch alteration zone (MBZ), which represents a more distal alteration facies related to Buchans ore-formation. Data from each of these zones were compared to those from the LSZ in order to evaluate their relative propectivity. Derived litho geochemical data served two functions: (i) to define primary (igneous) trends and (ii) secondary alteration trends. Primary trends were established using immobile, or conservative, elements (i. e., HFSE, REE, Th, Ti0₂, Al₂0₃, P₂0₅). From these, altered volcanic rocks were interpreted in terms of composition (e.g., basalt - rhyodacite) and magmatic affinity (e.g., calc-alkaline vs. tholeiitic). The information suggests that bimodality is a common feature of all zones, with most rocks plotting as either basalt/andesite or dacite (or rhyodacite); andesitic senso stricto compositions are rare. Magmatic affinities are more varied and complex, but indicate that all units are arc volcanic sequences. Rocks from the LSZ/MBZ represent a transitional to calc-alkalic sequence, however, a slight shift in key geochemical discriminants occurs between the foot-wall to the hanging-wall. Specifically, mafic and felsic lavas of the foot-wall are of transitional (or mildly calc-alkaline) affinity whereas the hanging-wall rocks are relatively more strongly calc-alkaline as indicated by enriched LREE/HREE and higher ZrN, NbN and other ratios in the latter. The geochemical variations also serve as a means to separate the units (at least the felsic rocks) into hanging-wall and foot-wall sequences, therefore providing a valuable exploration tool. Volcanic rocks from the WBZ/PHZ (and probably the APZ) are more typical of tholeiitic to transitional suites, yielding flatter mantlenormalized REE patterns and lower ZrN ratios. Thus, the relationships between the immediate mining area (represented by LSZ/MBZ) and the Buchans East (PHZ/WBZ) and the APZ are uncertain. Host rocks for all zones consist of mafic to felsic volcanic rocks, though the proportion of pyroclastic and epiclastic rocks, is greatest at the LSZ. Phenocryst assemblages and textures are common in all zones, with minor exceptions, and are not useful for discrimination purposes. Felsic rocks from all zones are dominated by sericiteclay+/- silica alteration, whereas mafic rocks are dominated by chlorite- quartz- sericite alteration. Pyrite is ubiquitous in all moderately altered rocks and minor associated base metal sulphides occur locally. The exception is at Lucky Strike, where stockwork quartzveining contains abundant base-metal mineralization and barite. Rocks completely comprised of chlorite (chloritite) also occur in the LSZ foot-wall. In addition, K-feldspar alteration occurs in felsic volcanic rocks at the MBZ associated with Zn-Pb-Ba and, notably, without chlorite. This zone represents a peripheral, but proximal, zone of alteration induced by lower temperature hydrothermal fluids, presumably with little influence from seawater. Alteration geochemistry was interpreted from raw data as well as from mass balanced (recalculated) data derived from immobile element pairs. The data from the LSZ/MBZ indicate a range in the degree of alteration from only minor to severe modification of precursor compositions. Ba tends to show a strong positive correlation with K₂0, although most Ba occurs as barite. With respect to mass changes, Al₂0₃, Ti0₂ and P₂0₅ were shown to be immobile. Nearly all rocks display mass loss of Na₂O, CaO, and Sr reflecting feldspar destruction. These trends are usually mirrored by K₂0-Rb and MgO addition, indicating sericitic and chloritic alteration, respectively. More substantial gains ofK₂0 often occur in rocks with K-feldspar alteration, whereas a few samples also displayed excessive MgO enrichment and represent chloritites. Fe₂0₃ indicates both chlorite and sulphide formation. Si0₂ addition is almost always the case for the altered mafic rocks as silica often infills amygdules and replaces the finer tuffaceous material. The felsic rocks display more variability in Si0₂. Silicic, sericitic and chloritic alteration trends were observed from the other zones, but not K-feldspar, chloritite, or barite. Microprobe analysis of chlorites, sericites and carbonates indicate: (i) sericites from all zones are defined as muscovite and are not phengitic; (ii) at the LSZ, chlorites ranged from Fe-Mg chlorites (pycnochlorite) to Mg-rich chlorite (penninite), with the latter occurring in the stockwork zone and more proximal alteration facies; (iii) chlorites from the WBZ were typical of those from the more distal alteration facies of the LSZ, plotting as ripidolite to pycnochlorite; (iv) conversely, chlorite from the PHZ plot with Mg-Al-rich compositions (chlinochlore to penninite); and (v) carbonate species from each zone are also varied, with calcite occurring in each zone, in addition to dolomite and ankerite in the PHZ and WBZ, respectively. Lead isotope ratios for galena separates from the different various zones, when combined with data from older studies, tend to cluster into four distinctive fields. Overall, the data plot on a broad mixing line and indicate evolution in a relatively low-μ environment. Data from sulphide stringers in altered MBZ rocks, as well as from clastic sulphides (Sandfill prospect), plot in the Buchans ore field, as do the data for galena from altered rocks in the APZ. Samples from the Buchans East area are even more primitive than the Buchans ores, with lead from the PHZ plotting with the Connel Option prospect and data from the WBZ matching that of the Skidder prospect. A sample from a newly discovered debris flow-type sulphide occurrence (Middle Branch East) yields lead isotope ratios that are slightly more radiogenic than Buchans and plot with the Mary March alteration zone. Data within each cluster are interpreted to represent derivation from individual hydrothermal systems in which metals were derived from a common source.
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A estrutura política e econômica brasileira promove uma sociedade marcada por desigualdades sociais, gerando indignações e diversos conflitos. Estresse, ansiedade, depressão, mal estar profissional, infraestrutura precária, alimentação inadequada, sedentarismo, (i)mobilidade urbana, fragilidade dos vínculos sociais, poluição, dentre outros, são fatores contemporâneos que afetam a qualidade de vida dos seres humanos. Este cenário merece atenção peculiar quando nos remetemos ao ambiente escolar. Este estudo teve por objetivo avaliar a qualidade de vida bem como identificar o grau de estresse percebido em diretores de Escolas Municipais de Educação Infantil (EMEIs) na Cidade de São Paulo. Participaram do estudo 86 Diretores de Escolas, correspondendo a 16,04% do total de diretores de EMEIs da Rede Municipal de Educação (RME). Os instrumentos utilizados foram: Questionário sociodemográfico, Instrumento de Avaliação de Qualidade de Vida-abreviado - WHOQOL-bref e a Escala de Estresse Percebido – PSS. Os resultados revelaram que, em média, 70,9% possuem uma excessiva rotina de trabalho, caracterizadas por: chegar mais cedo e/ou sair mais tarde do expediente normal; receber e/ou fazer ligações, mensagens, e-mails ou similares, relacionados à direção, fora do expediente de trabalho e levar serviços para casa e/ou se preocupar com questões relativas à direção, após encerrar o expediente. A maioria (60,05%) acredita que as condições de trabalho, enquanto Diretor de Escola influenciam negativamente na saúde pessoal. Tanto o índice geral da Qualidade de Vida quanto em relação aos domínios do WHOQOL-bref mostraram médias significativamente abaixo dos dados normativos brasileiros 12,7±3,1 (p<0,001). Quanto ao nível de estresse percebido, inicialmente analisamos as frequências referentes aos respectivos níveis. Os resultados mostraram que o nível de estresse percebido se situa entre 48,8% de “às vezes” para 41,9% de “quase sempre”. Este resultado se apresenta estatisticamente significativo (χ2 p<0,05). Com base neste estudo pudemos observar a escassez de estudos sobre QV e estresse com Diretores de Escolas e que a QV se apresentou significativamente baixa, bem como a percepção de estresse em quase metade da amostra estudada.
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Many modern applications fall into the category of "large-scale" statistical problems, in which both the number of observations n and the number of features or parameters p may be large. Many existing methods focus on point estimation, despite the continued relevance of uncertainty quantification in the sciences, where the number of parameters to estimate often exceeds the sample size, despite huge increases in the value of n typically seen in many fields. Thus, the tendency in some areas of industry to dispense with traditional statistical analysis on the basis that "n=all" is of little relevance outside of certain narrow applications. The main result of the Big Data revolution in most fields has instead been to make computation much harder without reducing the importance of uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods excel at uncertainty quantification, but often scale poorly relative to alternatives. This conflict between the statistical advantages of Bayesian procedures and their substantial computational disadvantages is perhaps the greatest challenge facing modern Bayesian statistics, and is the primary motivation for the work presented here.
Two general strategies for scaling Bayesian inference are considered. The first is the development of methods that lend themselves to faster computation, and the second is design and characterization of computational algorithms that scale better in n or p. In the first instance, the focus is on joint inference outside of the standard problem of multivariate continuous data that has been a major focus of previous theoretical work in this area. In the second area, we pursue strategies for improving the speed of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, and characterizing their performance in large-scale settings. Throughout, the focus is on rigorous theoretical evaluation combined with empirical demonstrations of performance and concordance with the theory.
One topic we consider is modeling the joint distribution of multivariate categorical data, often summarized in a contingency table. Contingency table analysis routinely relies on log-linear models, with latent structure analysis providing a common alternative. Latent structure models lead to a reduced rank tensor factorization of the probability mass function for multivariate categorical data, while log-linear models achieve dimensionality reduction through sparsity. Little is known about the relationship between these notions of dimensionality reduction in the two paradigms. In Chapter 2, we derive several results relating the support of a log-linear model to nonnegative ranks of the associated probability tensor. Motivated by these findings, we propose a new collapsed Tucker class of tensor decompositions, which bridge existing PARAFAC and Tucker decompositions, providing a more flexible framework for parsimoniously characterizing multivariate categorical data. Taking a Bayesian approach to inference, we illustrate empirical advantages of the new decompositions.
Latent class models for the joint distribution of multivariate categorical, such as the PARAFAC decomposition, data play an important role in the analysis of population structure. In this context, the number of latent classes is interpreted as the number of genetically distinct subpopulations of an organism, an important factor in the analysis of evolutionary processes and conservation status. Existing methods focus on point estimates of the number of subpopulations, and lack robust uncertainty quantification. Moreover, whether the number of latent classes in these models is even an identified parameter is an open question. In Chapter 3, we show that when the model is properly specified, the correct number of subpopulations can be recovered almost surely. We then propose an alternative method for estimating the number of latent subpopulations that provides good quantification of uncertainty, and provide a simple procedure for verifying that the proposed method is consistent for the number of subpopulations. The performance of the model in estimating the number of subpopulations and other common population structure inference problems is assessed in simulations and a real data application.
In contingency table analysis, sparse data is frequently encountered for even modest numbers of variables, resulting in non-existence of maximum likelihood estimates. A common solution is to obtain regularized estimates of the parameters of a log-linear model. Bayesian methods provide a coherent approach to regularization, but are often computationally intensive. Conjugate priors ease computational demands, but the conjugate Diaconis--Ylvisaker priors for the parameters of log-linear models do not give rise to closed form credible regions, complicating posterior inference. In Chapter 4 we derive the optimal Gaussian approximation to the posterior for log-linear models with Diaconis--Ylvisaker priors, and provide convergence rate and finite-sample bounds for the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the exact posterior and the optimal Gaussian approximation. We demonstrate empirically in simulations and a real data application that the approximation is highly accurate, even in relatively small samples. The proposed approximation provides a computationally scalable and principled approach to regularized estimation and approximate Bayesian inference for log-linear models.
Another challenging and somewhat non-standard joint modeling problem is inference on tail dependence in stochastic processes. In applications where extreme dependence is of interest, data are almost always time-indexed. Existing methods for inference and modeling in this setting often cluster extreme events or choose window sizes with the goal of preserving temporal information. In Chapter 5, we propose an alternative paradigm for inference on tail dependence in stochastic processes with arbitrary temporal dependence structure in the extremes, based on the idea that the information on strength of tail dependence and the temporal structure in this dependence are both encoded in waiting times between exceedances of high thresholds. We construct a class of time-indexed stochastic processes with tail dependence obtained by endowing the support points in de Haan's spectral representation of max-stable processes with velocities and lifetimes. We extend Smith's model to these max-stable velocity processes and obtain the distribution of waiting times between extreme events at multiple locations. Motivated by this result, a new definition of tail dependence is proposed that is a function of the distribution of waiting times between threshold exceedances, and an inferential framework is constructed for estimating the strength of extremal dependence and quantifying uncertainty in this paradigm. The method is applied to climatological, financial, and electrophysiology data.
The remainder of this thesis focuses on posterior computation by Markov chain Monte Carlo. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is the dominant paradigm for posterior computation in Bayesian analysis. It has long been common to control computation time by making approximations to the Markov transition kernel. Comparatively little attention has been paid to convergence and estimation error in these approximating Markov Chains. In Chapter 6, we propose a framework for assessing when to use approximations in MCMC algorithms, and how much error in the transition kernel should be tolerated to obtain optimal estimation performance with respect to a specified loss function and computational budget. The results require only ergodicity of the exact kernel and control of the kernel approximation accuracy. The theoretical framework is applied to approximations based on random subsets of data, low-rank approximations of Gaussian processes, and a novel approximating Markov chain for discrete mixture models.
Data augmentation Gibbs samplers are arguably the most popular class of algorithm for approximately sampling from the posterior distribution for the parameters of generalized linear models. The truncated Normal and Polya-Gamma data augmentation samplers are standard examples for probit and logit links, respectively. Motivated by an important problem in quantitative advertising, in Chapter 7 we consider the application of these algorithms to modeling rare events. We show that when the sample size is large but the observed number of successes is small, these data augmentation samplers mix very slowly, with a spectral gap that converges to zero at a rate at least proportional to the reciprocal of the square root of the sample size up to a log factor. In simulation studies, moderate sample sizes result in high autocorrelations and small effective sample sizes. Similar empirical results are observed for related data augmentation samplers for multinomial logit and probit models. When applied to a real quantitative advertising dataset, the data augmentation samplers mix very poorly. Conversely, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and a type of independence chain Metropolis algorithm show good mixing on the same dataset.
Resumo:
The impact of widowhood on suicide and accident mortality in Ireland was investigated using Poisson regression analysis applied to routine data relating to all 10 561 suicidal and accidental deaths of married or widowed persons aged at least 35 years in Ireland during 1986–2005. Mortality rates were almost always higher among the widowed and often by a 2-fold, statistically significant difference. The excess mortality was equivalent to 2083 or 57.6% of all suicidal or accidental deaths of widowed persons in 1986–2005. Routine contact with recently widowed persons by public health professionals may be warranted with a view to reducing their excess mortality.
Resumo:
The effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy (ART) transformed the pediatric HIV epidemic. The disease changed significantly over the course of three decades: while early in the epidemic it was almost always fatal, it has become a chronic condition. This study examined how perinatally-infected youth experience the impact of HIV in their lives. A qualitative study using interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA) was conducted. Twenty in-depth interviews were carried out among 12 women and 8 men aged 18 to 30 years in Puerto Rico. These were conducted in Spanish, audio-recorded, transcribed and translated into English. While narrating their experiences, participants were interpreting what the situation meant to them and how they make sense of it. Three topics emerged: (1) perception and response to treatment and illness, particularly their lived experiences with ART; (2) disclosure experiences; and (3) family matters. Most participants challenged their therapy, in most cases to force their caregivers to disclose their status. Problems with adherence were attributed to busy schedules or forgetfulness. Participants experienced the disfiguring adverse effects of ART, which they endured for years without being informed that ART was the cause of these. Participants’ experiences with disclosure demonstrated the importance of validating them as individuals capable of managing their health. The paternalistic approach of withholding their diagnosis to spare them suffering resulted in increased anxiety. Participants acknowledged the difficulties of revealing their HIV status to their partners. They referred to family and friends as essential in coping with HIV. However, some encountered discrimination and stigma within their families. Participants who had suffered the loss of their parents found other parental figures such as adoptive parents or other family members. Most participants expressed a desire to have children. Perinatally HIV-infected youth will require health services for the rest of their lives. The adult health care into which they transition should consider their needs and journey. Services should consider including family members. This study underscores the need for improved access to mental health services. It is also essential to transcend medical treatment and develop a broader perspective of health care. Health care services should include reproductive decision-making counselling services.