831 resultados para All-cause mortality
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PURPOSE To assess the need for clinically-driven secondary revascularization in critical limb ischemia (CLI) patients subsequent to tibial angioplasty during a 2-year follow-up. METHODS Between 2008 and 2010, a total of 128 consecutive CLI patients (80 men; mean age 76.5±9.8 years) underwent tibial angioplasty in 139 limbs. Rutherford categories, ankle-brachial index measurements, and lower limb oscillometries were prospectively assessed. All patients were followed at 3, 6, 12 months, and annually thereafter. Rates of death, primary and secondary sustained clinical improvement, target lesion (TLR) and target extremity revascularization (TER), as well as major amputation, were analyzed retrospectively. Primary clinical improvement was defined as improvement in Rutherford category to a level of intermittent claudication without unplanned amputation or TLR. RESULTS All-cause mortality was 8.6%, 14.8%, 22.9%, and 29.1% at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months. At the same intervals, rates of primary sustained clinical improvement were 74.5%, 53.0%, 42.7%, and 37.1%; for secondary improvement, the rates were 89.1%, 76.0%, 68.4%, and 65.0%. Clinically-driven TLR rates were 14.6%, 29.1%, 41.6%, 46.2%; the rates for TER were 3.0%, 13.6%, 17.2%, and 27.6% in corresponding intervals, while the rates of major amputation were 1.5%, 5.5%, 10.1%, and 10.1%. CONCLUSION Clinically-driven TLR is frequently required to maintain favorable functional clinical outcomes in CLI patients following tibial angioplasty. Dedicated technologies addressing tibial arterial restenosis warrant further academic scrutiny.
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We report here results of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study ( http://www.ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT00558311) that investigated the effect of clazosentan (5 mg/h, n = 768) or placebo (n = 389) administered for up to 14 days in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) repaired by surgical clipping. The primary endpoint was a composite of all-cause mortality, new cerebral infarction or delayed ischemic neurological deficit due to vasospasm, and rescue therapy for vasospasm. The main secondary endpoint was the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE), which was dichotomized. Twenty-one percent of clazosentan- compared to 25% of placebo-treated patients met the primary endpoint (relative risk reduction [RRR] [95% CI]: 17% [-4% to 33%]; p = 0.10). Poor outcome (GOSE score ≤ 4) occurred in 29% of clazosentan- and 25% of placebo-treated patients (RRR: -18% [-45% to 4%]; p = 0.10). In prespecified subgroups, mortality/vasospasm-related morbidity was reduced in clazosentan-treated patients by 33% (8-51%) in poor WFNS (World Federation of Neurological Surgeons) grade (≥III) and 25% (5-41%) in patients with diffuse, thick SAH. Lung complications, anemia and hypotension occurred more frequently with clazosentan. Mortality (week 12) was 6% in both groups. The results showed that clazosentan nonsignificantly decreased mortality/vasospasm-related morbidity and nonsignificantly increased poor functional outcome in patients with aneurysmal SAH undergoing surgical clipping.
Physical activity and survival after a first myocardial infarction: The Corpus Christi Heart Project
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Previous studies have demonstrated that habitual physical activity is associated with a reduced risk of incident coronary heart disease (CHD). However, the role of physical activity in lowering the risk of all-cause mortality, CHD mortality, reinfarction, or receipt of a revascularization procedure after a first myocardial infarction (MI) remains unresolved, particularly in minority populations. To investigate the associations between physical activity and risk of all-cause mortality, CHD mortality, reinfarction, and receipt of a revascularization procedure, this study was conducted among Mexican-American and non-Hispanic white women and men who survived a first MI. The Corpus Christi Heart Project, a population-based cardiovascular surveillance study, provide data which included vital status, survival time, medical history, CHD risk factor information, including level of physical activity among Mexican-American and non-Hispanic white adults who had experienced a first MI between May, 1988 and April, 1990. MI patients were interviewed at baseline and annually thereafter until their death or through May, 1995. A categorical variable was created to reflect change in level of physical activity following the first MI; categories included (1) sedentary with no change, (2) decreased activity, (3) increased activity, and (4) moderate activity with no change (the referent group). Proportional hazards regression analyses were used to assess the relationship of level of physical activity and risk of death, reinfarction, or receipt of a revascularization procedure adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, severity of MI, and CHD risk factor status. Over a 7-year follow-up period, the relative risk (95% confidence intervals) of all-cause mortality was 4.67 (2.27, 9.60) for the sedentary-no change group, 2.33 (0.96, 5.67) for the decreased activity group, and 0.52 (0.11, 2.41) for the increased activity group. The relative risk of CHD mortality was 6.92 (2.05, 23.34) for the sedentary-no change group, 2.40 (0.55, 10.51) for the decreased activity group, and 1.58 (0.26, 9.65) for the increased activity group. The relative risk for reinfarction was 2.50 (1.52, 4.10) for the sedentary-no change group, 2.26 (1.24, 4.12) for the decreased activity group, and 0.52 (0.21, 1.32) for the increased activity group. Finally, the relative risk for receipt of a revascularization procedure was 0.65 (0.39, 1.07) for the sedentary-no change group, 0.45 (0.22, 0.92) for the decreased activity group, and 1.01 (0.51, 2.02) for the increased activity group. No interactions were observed for ethnicity or severity of first MI. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that moderate physical activity is independently associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality, CHD mortality, and reinfarction, but not revascularization, among Mexican-American and non-Hispanic white, female and male, first MI patients. These results also support the current recommendation that physical activity plays an important role in the secondary prevention of CHD. ^
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Cancer is a chronic disease that often necessitates recurrent hospitalizations, a costly pattern of medical care utilization. In chronically ill patients, most readmissions are for treatment of the same condition that caused the preceding hospitalization. There is concern that rather than reducing costs, earlier discharge may shift costs from the initial hospitalization to emergency center visits. ^ This is the first descriptive study to measure the incidence of emergency center visits (ECVs) after hospitalization at The University of M. D. Anderson Cancer Center (UTMDACC), to identify the risk factors for and outcomes of these ECVs, and to compare 30-day all-cause mortality and costs for episodes of care with and without ECVs. ^ We identified all hospitalizations at UTMDACC with admission dates from September 1, 1993 through August 31, 1997 which met inclusion criteria. Data were electronically obtained primarily from UTMDACC's institutional database. Demographic factors, clinical factors, duration of the index hospitalization, method of payment for care, and year of hospitalization study were variables determined for each hospitalization. ^ The overall incidence of ECVs was 18%. Forty-five percent of ECVs resulted in hospital readmission (8% of all hospitalizations). In 1% of ECVs the patient died in the emergency center, and for the remaining 54% of ECVs the patient was discharged home. Risk factors for ECVs were marital status, type of index hospitalization, cancer type, and duration of the index hospitalization. The overall 30-day all-cause mortality rate was 8.6% for hospitalizations with an ECV and 5.3% for those without an ECV. In all subgroups, the 30-day all-cause mortality rate was higher for groups with ECVs than for those without ECVs. The most important factor increasing cost was having an ECV. In all patient subgroups, the cost per episode of care with an ECV was at least 1.9 times the cost per episode without an ECV. ^ The higher costs and poorer outcomes of episodes of care with ECVs and hospital readmissions suggest that interventions to avoid these ECVs or mitigate their costs are needed. Further research is needed to improve understanding of the methodological issues involved in relation to health care issues for cancer patients. ^
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Aims: To evaluate short-term clinical outcomes following transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) using CE-mark approved devices in Switzerland. Methods and results: The Swiss TAVI registry is a national, prospective, multicentre, monitored cohort study evaluating clinical outcomes in consecutive patients undergoing TAVI at cardiovascular centres in Switzerland. From February 2011 to March 2013, a total of 697 patients underwent TAVI for native aortic valve stenosis (98.1%), degenerative aortic bioprosthesis (1.6%) or severe aortic regurgitation (0.3%). Patients were elderly (82.4±6 years), 52% were females, and the majority highly symptomatic (73.1% NYHA III/IV). Patients with severe aortic stenosis (mean gradient 44.8±17 mmHg, aortic valve area 0.7±0.3 cm2) were either deemed inoperable or at high risk for conventional surgery (STS 8.2%±7). The transfemoral access was the most frequently used (79.1%), followed by transapical (18.1%), direct aortic (1.7%) and subclavian access (1.1%). At 30 days, rates of all-cause mortality, cerebrovascular events and myocardial infarction were 4.8%, 3.3% and 0.4%, respectively. The most frequently observed adverse events were access-related complications (11.8%), permanent pacemaker implantation (20.5%) and bleeding complications (16.6%). The Swiss TAVI registry is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01368250). Conclusions: The Swiss TAVI registry is a national cohort study evaluating consecutive TAVI procedures in Switzerland. This first outcome report provides favourable short-term clinical outcomes in unselected TAVI patients.
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Patient self-management (PSM) of oral anticoagulation is under discussion, because evidence from real-life settings is missing. Using data from a nationwide, prospective cohort study in Switzerland, we assessed overall long-term efficacy and safety of PSM and examined subgroups. Data of 1140 patients (5818.9 patient-years) were analysed and no patient were lost to follow-up. Median follow-up was 4.3 years (range 0.2-12.8 years). Median age at the time of training was 54.2 years (range 18.2-85.2) and 34.6% were women. All-cause mortality was 1.4 per 100 patient-years (95% CI 1.1-1.7) with a higher rate in patients with atrial fibrillation (2.5; 1.6-3.7; p<0.001), patients>50 years of age (2.0; 1.6-2.6; p<0.001), and men (1.6; 1.2-2.1; p = 0.036). The rate of thromboembolic events was 0.4 (0.2-0.6) and independent from indications, sex and age. Major bleeding were observed in 1.1 (0.9-1.5) per 100 patient-years. Efficacy was comparable to standard care and new oral anticoagulants in a network meta-analysis. PSM of properly trained patients is effective and safe in a long-term real-life setting and robust across clinical subgroups. Adoption in various clinical settings, including those with limited access to medical care or rural areas is warranted.
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BACKGROUND Elevated resting heart rate is known to be detrimental to morbidity and mortality in cardiovascular disease, though its effect in patients with ischemic stroke is unclear. We analyzed the effect of baseline resting heart rate on myocardial infarction (MI) in patients with a recent noncardioembolic cerebral ischemic event participating in PERFORM. METHODS We compared fatal or nonfatal MI using adjusted Cox proportional hazards models for PERFORM patients with baseline heart rate <70 bpm (n=8178) or ≥70 bpm (n=10,802). In addition, heart rate was analyzed as a continuous variable. Other cerebrovascular and cardiovascular outcomes were also explored. RESULTS Heart rate ≥70 bpm was associated with increased relative risk for fatal or nonfatal MI (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.03-1.69, P=0.029). For every 5-bpm increase in heart rate, there was an increase in relative risk for fatal and nonfatal MI (11.3%, P=0.0002). Heart rate ≥70 bpm was also associated with increased relative risk for a composite of fatal or nonfatal ischemic stroke, fatal or nonfatal MI, or other vascular death (excluding hemorrhagic death) (P<0001); vascular death (P<0001); all-cause mortality (P<0001); and fatal or nonfatal stroke (P=0.04). For every 5-bpm increase in heart rate, there were increases in relative risk for fatal or nonfatal ischemic stroke, fatal or nonfatal MI, or other vascular death (4.7%, P<0.0001), vascular death (11.0%, P<0.0001), all-cause mortality (8.0%, P<0.0001), and fatal and nonfatal stroke (2.4%, P=0.057). CONCLUSION Elevated heart rate ≥70 bpm places patients with a noncardioembolic cerebral ischemic event at increased risk for MI.
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OBJECTIVE To investigate whether revascularisation improves prognosis compared with medical treatment among patients with stable coronary artery disease. DESIGN Bayesian network meta-analyses to combine direct within trial comparisons between treatments with indirect evidence from other trials while maintaining randomisation. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES A strategy of initial medical treatment compared with revascularisation by coronary artery bypass grafting or Food and Drug Administration approved techniques for percutaneous revascularization: balloon angioplasty, bare metal stent, early generation paclitaxel eluting stent, sirolimus eluting stent, and zotarolimus eluting (Endeavor) stent, and new generation everolimus eluting stent, and zotarolimus eluting (Resolute) stent among patients with stable coronary artery disease. DATA SOURCES Medline and Embase from 1980 to 2013 for randomised trials comparing medical treatment with revascularisation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE All cause mortality. RESULTS 100 trials in 93 553 patients with 262 090 patient years of follow-up were included. Coronary artery bypass grafting was associated with a survival benefit (rate ratio 0.80, 95% credibility interval 0.70 to 0.91) compared with medical treatment. New generation drug eluting stents (everolimus: 0.75, 0.59 to 0.96; zotarolimus (Resolute): 0.65, 0.42 to 1.00) but not balloon angioplasty (0.85, 0.68 to 1.04), bare metal stents (0.92, 0.79 to 1.05), or early generation drug eluting stents (paclitaxel: 0.92, 0.75 to 1.12; sirolimus: 0.91, 0.75 to 1.10; zotarolimus (Endeavor): 0.88, 0.69 to 1.10) were associated with improved survival compared with medical treatment. Coronary artery bypass grafting reduced the risk of myocardial infarction compared with medical treatment (0.79, 0.63 to 0.99), and everolimus eluting stents showed a trend towards a reduced risk of myocardial infarction (0.75, 0.55 to 1.01). The risk of subsequent revascularisation was noticeably reduced by coronary artery bypass grafting (0.16, 0.13 to 0.20) followed by new generation drug eluting stents (zotarolimus (Resolute): 0.26, 0.17 to 0.40; everolimus: 0.27, 0.21 to 0.35), early generation drug eluting stents (zotarolimus (Endeavor): 0.37, 0.28 to 0.50; sirolimus: 0.29, 0.24 to 0.36; paclitaxel: 0.44, 0.35 to 0.54), and bare metal stents (0.69, 0.59 to 0.81) compared with medical treatment. CONCLUSION Among patients with stable coronary artery disease, coronary artery bypass grafting reduces the risk of death, myocardial infarction, and subsequent revascularisation compared with medical treatment. All stent based coronary revascularisation technologies reduce the need for revascularisation to a variable degree. Our results provide evidence for improved survival with new generation drug eluting stents but no other percutaneous revascularisation technology compared with medical treatment.
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OBJECTIVE To assess long-term clinical outcomes of consecutive high-risk patients with severe aortic stenosis according to treatment allocation to transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI), surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) or medical treatment (MT). METHODS Patients with severe aortic stenosis were consecutively enrolled into a prospective single centre registry. RESULTS Among 442 patients (median age 83 years, median STS-score 4.7) allocated to MT (n=78), SAVR (n=107), or TAVI (n=257) all-cause mortality amounted to 81%, 37% and 43% after a median duration of follow-up of 3.9 years (p<0.001). Rates of major adverse cerebro-cardiovascular events were lower in patients undergoing SAVR or TAVI as compared with MT (SAVR vs MT: HR 0.31, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.46) (TAVI vs MT: HR 0.34, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.46), with no significant difference between SAVR and TAVI (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.62 to 1.25). Whereas SAVR (HR 0.39, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.61), TAVI (HR 0.37, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.52), and female gender (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.99) were associated with improved survival, body mass index ≤20 kg/m(2) (HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.04 to 2.47), diabetes (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.03 to 2.12), peripheral vascular disease (HR 2.01, 95% CI 1.44 to 2.81), atrial fibrillation (HR 1.74, 95% CI 1.28 to 2.37) and pulmonary hypertension (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.03 to 2.00) were identified as independent predictors of mortality. CONCLUSIONS Among high-risk patients with severe aortic stenosis, long-term clinical outcome through 5 years was comparable between patients allocated to SAVR or TAVI. In contrast, patients with MT had a dismal prognosis.
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INTRODUCTION Anemia and renal impairment are important co-morbidities among patients with coronary artery disease undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI). Disease progression to eventual death can be understood as the combined effect of baseline characteristics and intermediate outcomes. METHODS Using data from a prospective cohort study, we investigated clinical pathways reflecting the transitions from PCI through intermediate ischemic or hemorrhagic events to all-cause mortality in a multi-state analysis as a function of anemia (hemoglobin concentration <120 g/l and <130 g/l, for women and men, respectively) and renal impairment (creatinine clearance <60 ml/min) at baseline. RESULTS Among 6029 patients undergoing PCI, anemia and renal impairment were observed isolated or in combination in 990 (16.4%), 384 (6.4%), and 309 (5.1%) patients, respectively. The most frequent transition was from PCI to death (6.7%, 95% CI 6.1-7.3), followed by ischemic events (4.8%, 95 CI 4.3-5.4) and bleeding (3.4%, 95% CI 3.0-3.9). Among patients with both anemia and renal impairment, the risk of death was increased 4-fold as compared to the reference group (HR 3.9, 95% CI 2.9-5.4) and roughly doubled as compared to patients with either anemia (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.3-2.2) or renal impairment (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.5-2.9) alone. Hazard ratios indicated an increased risk of bleeding in all three groups compared to patients with neither anemia nor renal impairment. CONCLUSIONS Applying a multi-state model we found evidence for a gradient of risk for the composite of bleeding, ischemic events, or death as a function of hemoglobin value and estimated glomerular filtration rate at baseline.
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BACKGROUND In patients with cardiogenic shock, data on the comparative safety and efficacy of drug-eluting stents (DESs) vs. bare metal stents (BMSs) are lacking. We sought to assess the performance of DESs compared with BMSs among patients with cardiogenic shock undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). METHODS Out of 236 patients with acute coronary syndromes complicated by cardiogenic shock, 203 were included in the final analysis. The primary endpoint included death, and the secondary endpoint of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) included the composite of death, myocardial infarction, any repeat revascularization and stroke. Patients were followed for a minimum of 30 days and up to 4 years. As stent assignment was not random, we performed a propensity score analysis to minimize potential bias. RESULTS Among patients treated with DESs, there was a lower risk of the primary and secondary endpoints compared with BMSs at 30 days (29 vs. 56%, P < 0.001; 34 vs. 58%, P = 0.001, respectively) and during long-term follow-up [hazard ratio 0.43, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.29-0.65, P < 0.001; hazard ratio 0.49, 95% CI 0.34-0.71, P < 0.001, respectively]. After propensity score adjustment, all-cause mortality was reduced among patients treated with DESs compared with BMSs both at 30 days [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.26, 95% CI 0.11-0.62; P = 0.002] and during long-term follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio 0.40, 95% CI 0.22-0.72; P = 0.002). The rate of MACCE was lower among patients treated with DESs compared with those treated with BMSs at 30 days (adjusted OR 0.42, 95% CI 0.19-0.95; P = 0.036). The difference in MACCEs between devices approached significance during long-term follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio 0.60, 95% CI 0.34-1.01; P = 0.052). CONCLUSION DESs appear to be associated with improved clinical outcomes, including a reduction in all-cause mortality compared with BMSs among patients undergoing PCI for cardiogenic shock, possibly because of a pacification of the infarct-related artery by anti-inflammatory drug. The results of this observational study require confirmation in an appropriately powered randomized trial.
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OBJECTIVE To investigate the long-term prognostic implications of coronary calcification in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention for obstructive coronary artery disease. METHODS Patient-level data from 6296 patients enrolled in seven clinical drug-eluting stents trials were analysed to identify in angiographic images the presence of severe coronary calcification by an independent academic research organisation (Cardialysis, Rotterdam, The Netherlands). Clinical outcomes at 3-years follow-up including all-cause mortality, death-myocardial infarction (MI), and the composite end-point of all-cause death-MI-any revascularisation were compared between patients with and without severe calcification. RESULTS Severe calcification was detected in 20% of the studied population. Patients with severe lesion calcification were less likely to have undergone complete revascularisation (48% vs 55.6%, p<0.001) and had an increased mortality compared with those without severely calcified arteries (10.8% vs 4.4%, p<0.001). The event rate was also high in patients with severely calcified lesions for the combined end-point death-MI (22.9% vs 10.9%; p<0.001) and death-MI- any revascularisation (31.8% vs 22.4%; p<0.001). On multivariate Cox regression analysis, including the Syntax score, the presence of severe coronary calcification was an independent predictor of poor prognosis (HR: 1.33 95% CI 1.00 to 1.77, p=0.047 for death; 1.23, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.49, p=0.031 for death-MI, and 1.18, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.39, p=0.042 for death-MI- any revascularisation), but it was not associated with an increased risk of stent thrombosis. CONCLUSIONS Patients with severely calcified lesions have worse clinical outcomes compared to those without severe coronary calcification. Severe coronary calcification appears as an independent predictor of worse prognosis, and should be considered as a marker of advanced atherosclerosis.
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AIM Transcatheter aortic valve implantation has become an alternative to surgery in higher risk patients with symptomatic aortic stenosis. The aim of the ADVANCE study was to evaluate outcomes following implantation of a self-expanding transcatheter aortic valve system in a fully monitored, multi-centre 'real-world' patient population in highly experienced centres. METHODS AND RESULTS Patients with severe aortic stenosis at a higher surgical risk in whom implantation of the CoreValve System was decided by the Heart Team were included. Endpoints were a composite of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE; all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, or reintervention) and mortality at 30 days and 1 year. Endpoint-related events were independently adjudicated based on Valve Academic Research Consortium definitions. A total of 1015 patients [mean logistic EuroSCORE 19.4 ± 12.3% [median (Q1,Q3), 16.0% (10.3, 25.3%)], age 81 ± 6 years] were enrolled. Implantation of the CoreValve System led to a significant improvement in haemodynamics and an increase in the effective aortic valve orifice area. At 30 days, the MACCE rate was 8.0% (95% CI: 6.3-9.7%), all-cause mortality was 4.5% (3.2-5.8%), cardiovascular mortality was 3.4% (2.3-4.6%), and the rate of stroke was 3.0% (2.0-4.1%). The life-threatening or disabling bleeding rate was 4.0% (2.8-6.3%). The 12-month rates of MACCE, all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and stroke were 21.2% (18.4-24.1%), 17.9% (15.2-20.5%), 11.7% (9.4-14.1%), and 4.5% (2.9-6.1%), respectively. The 12-month rates of all-cause mortality were 11.1, 16.5, and 23.6% among patients with a logistic EuroSCORE ≤10%, EuroSCORE 10-20%, and EuroSCORE >20% (P< 0.05), respectively. CONCLUSION The ADVANCE study demonstrates the safety and effectiveness of the CoreValve System with low mortality and stroke rates in higher risk real-world patients with severe aortic stenosis.
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BACKGROUND In patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE), rapid and accurate risk assessment is paramount in selecting the appropriate treatment strategy. The prognostic value of right ventricular dysfunction (RVD) assessed by multidetector CT (MDCT) in normotensive patients with PE has lacked adequate validation. METHODS The study defined MDCT-assessed RVD as a ratio of the RV to the left ventricle short axis diameter greater than 0.9. Outcomes assessed through 30 days after the diagnosis of PE included all-cause mortality and 'complicated course', which consisted of death from any cause, haemodynamic collapse or recurrent PE. RESULTS MDCT detected RVD in 533 (63%) of the 848 enrolled patients. Those with RVD on MDCT more frequently had echocardiographic RVD (31%) than those without RVD on MDCT (9.2%) (p<0.001). Patients with RVD on MDCT had significantly higher brain natriuretic peptide (269±447 vs 180±457 pg/ml, p<0.001) and troponin (0.10±0.43 vs 0.03±0.24 ng/ml, p=0.001) levels in comparison with those without RVD on MDCT. During follow-up, death occurred in 25 patients with and in 13 patients without RVD on MDCT (4.7% vs 4.3%; p=0.93). Those with and those without RVD on MDCT had a similar frequency of complicated course (3.9% vs 2.3%; p=0.30). CONCLUSIONS The PROgnosTic valuE of CT study showed a relationship between RVD assessed by MDCT and other markers of cardiac dysfunction around the time of PE diagnosis, but did not demonstrate an association between MDCT-RVD and prognosis.
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RATIONALE Not all patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) have a high risk of an adverse short-term outcome. OBJECTIVES This prospective cohort study aimed to develop a multimarker prognostic model that accurately classifies normotensive patients with PE into low and high categories of risk of adverse medical outcomes. METHODS The study enrolled 848 outpatients from the PROTECT (PROgnosTic valuE of Computed Tomography) study (derivation cohort) and 529 patients from the Prognostic Factors for Pulmonary Embolism (PREP) study (validation cohort). Investigators assessed study participants for a 30-day complicated course, defined as death from any cause, hemodynamic collapse, and/or adjudicated recurrent PE. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS A complicated course occurred in 63 (7.4%) of the 848 normotensive patients with acute symptomatic PE in the derivation cohort and in 24 patients (4.5%) in the validation cohort. The final model included the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index, cardiac troponin I, brain natriuretic peptide, and lower limb ultrasound testing. The model performed similarly in the derivation (c-index of 0.75) and validation (c-index of 0.85) cohorts. The combination of the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index and brain natriuretic peptide testing showed a negative predictive value for a complicated course of 99.1 and 100% in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The combination of all modalities had a positive predictive value for the prediction of a complicated course of 25.8% in the derivation cohort and 21.2% in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS For normotensive patients who have acute PE, we derived and validated a multimarker model that predicts all-cause mortality, hemodynamic collapse, and/or recurrent PE within the following 30 days.