On the Southern Ocean CO2 uptake and the role of the biological carbon pump in the 21st century, links to supplementary material

We use a suite of eight ocean biogeochemical/ecological general circulation models from the MAREMIP and CMIP5 archives to explore the relative roles of changes in winds (positive trend of Southern Annular Mode, SAM) and in warming- and freshening-driven trends of upper ocean stratification in altering export production and CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean at the end of the 21st century. The investigated models simulate a broad range of responses to climate change, with no agreement ona dominance of either the SAM or the warming signal south of 44° S. In the southernmost zone, i.e., south of 58° S, they concur on an increase of biological export production, while between 44 and 58° S the models lack consensus on the sign of change in export. Yet, in both regions, the models show an enhanced CO2 uptake during spring and summer. This is due to a larger CO 2 (aq) drawdown by the same amount of summer export production at a higher Revelle factor at the end of the 21st century. This strongly increases the importance of the biological carbon pump in the entire Southern Ocean. In the temperate zone, between 30 and 44° S all models show a predominance of the warming signal and a nutrient-driven reduction of export production. As a consequence, the share of the regions south of 44° S to the total uptake of the Southern Ocean south of 30° S is projected to increase at the end of the 21st century from 47 to 66% with a commensurable decrease to the north. Despite this major reorganization of the meridional distribution of the major regions of uptake, the total uptake increases largely in line with the rising atmospheric CO2. Simulations with the MITgcm-REcoM2 model show that this is mostly driven by the strong increase of atmospheric CO2, with the climate-driven changes of natural CO2 exchange offsetting that trend only to a limited degree (~10%) and with negligible impact of climate effects on anthropogenic CO2 uptake when integrated over a full annual cycle south of 30° S.

Optimization of pipeline transport for CO2 sequestration

Coal fired power generation will continue to provide energy to the world for the foreseeable future. However, this energy use is a significant contributor to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and, hence, global warming. Capture and disposal Of CO2 has received increased R&D attention in the last decade as the technology promises to be the most cost effective for large scale reductions in CO2 emissions. This paper addresses CO2 transport via pipeline from capture site to disposal site, in terms of system optimization, energy efficiency and overall economics. Technically, CO2 can be transported through pipelines in the form of a gas, a supercritical. fluid or in the subcooled liquid state. Operationally, most CO2 pipelines used for enhanced oil recovery transport CO2 as a supercritical fluid. In this paper, supercritical fluid and subcooled liquid transport are examined and compared, including their impacts on energy efficiency and cost. Using a commercially available process simulator, ASPEN PLUS 10.1, the results show that subcooled liquid transport maximizes the energy efficiency and minimizes the Cost Of CO2 transport over long distances under both isothermal and adiabatic conditions. Pipeline transport of subcooled liquid CO2 can be ideally used in areas of cold climate or by burying and insulating the pipeline. In very warm climates, periodic refrigeration to cool the CO2 below its critical point of 31.1 degrees C, may prove economical. Simulations have been used to determine the maximum safe pipeline distances to subsequent booster stations as a function of inlet pressure, environmental temperature and ground level heat flux conditions. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Phytoplankton-bacteria coupling under elevated CO2 levels: a stable isotope labelling study, 2010

The potential impact of rising carbon dioxide (CO2) on carbon transfer from phytoplankton to bacteria was investigated during the 2005 PeECE III mesocosm study in Bergen, Norway. Sets of mesocosms, in which a phytoplankton bloom was induced by nutrient addition, were incubated under 1x (~350 µatm), 2x (~700 µatm), and 3x present day CO2 (~1050 µatm) initial seawater and sustained atmospheric CO2 levels for 3 weeks. 13C labelled bicarbonate was added to all mesocosms to follow the transfer of carbon from dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) into phytoplankton and subsequently heterotrophic bacteria, and settling particles. Isotope ratios of polar-lipid-derived fatty acids (PLFA) were used to infer the biomass and production of phytoplankton and bacteria. Phytoplankton PLFA were enriched within one day after label addition, whilst it took another 3 days before bacteria showed substantial enrichment. Group-specific primary production measurements revealed that coccolithophores showed higher primary production than green algae and diatoms. Elevated CO2 had a significant positive effect on post-bloom biomass of green algae, diatoms, and bacteria. A simple model based on measured isotope ratios of phytoplankton and bacteria revealed that CO2 had no significant effect on the carbon transfer efficiency from phytoplankton to bacteria during the bloom. There was no indication of CO2 effects on enhanced settling based on isotope mixing models during the phytoplankton bloom, but this could not be determined in the post-bloom phase. Our results suggest that CO2effects are most pronounced in the post-bloom phase, under nutrient limitation.

CO2 concentration and stable isotope ratios of three Antarctic ice cores covering the period from 149.4 - 1.5 kyr before 1950

We present new d13C measurements of atmospheric CO2 covering the last glacial/interglacial cycle, complementing previous records covering Terminations I and II. Most prominent in the new record is a significant depletion in d13C(atm) of 0.5 permil occurring during marine isotope stage (MIS) 4, followed by an enrichment of the same magnitude at the beginning of MIS 3. Such a significant excursion in the record is otherwise only observed at glacial terminations, suggesting that similar processes were at play, such as changing sea surface temperatures, changes in marine biological export in the Southern Ocean (SO) due to variations in aeolian iron fluxes, changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, upwelling of deep water in the SO, and long-term trends in terrestrial carbon storage. Based on previous modeling studies, we propose constraints on some of these processes during specific time intervals. The decrease in d13C(atm) at the end of MIS 4 starting approximately 64 kyr B.P. was accompanied by increasing [CO2]. This period is also marked by a decrease in aeolian iron flux to the SO, followed by an increase in SO upwelling during Heinrich event 6, indicating that it is likely that a large amount of d13C-depleted carbon was transferred to the deep oceans previously, i.e., at the onset of MIS 4. Apart from the upwelling event at the end of MIS 4 (and potentially smaller events during Heinrich events in MIS 3), upwelling of deep water in the SO remained reduced until the last glacial termination, whereupon a second pulse of isotopically light carbon was released into the atmosphere.

Effect of Termination of Long-term Free Air CO2 Enrichment on Physiology and Carbon Allocation in a Loblolly Pine Dominated Forest

This dissertation examined the response to termination of CO2 enrichment of a forest ecosystem exposed to long-term elevated atmospheric CO2 condition, and aimed at investigating responses and their underlying mechanisms of two important factors of carbon cycle in the ecosystem, stomatal conductance and soil respiration. Because the contribution of understory vegetation to the entire ecosystem grew with time, we first investigated the effect of elevated CO2 on understory vegetation. Potential growth enhancing effect of elevated CO2 were not observed, and light seemed to be a limiting factor. Secondly, we examined the importance of aerodynamic conductance to determine canopy conductance, and found that its effect can be negligible. Responses of stomatal conductance and soil respiration were assessed using Bayesian state space model. In two years after the termination of CO2 enrichment, stomatal conductance in formerly elevated CO2 returned to ambient level, while soil respiration became smaller than ambient level and did not recovered to ambient in two years.

Coral energy reserves and calcification in a high-CO2 world at two temperatures

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations threaten coral reefs globally by causing ocean acidification (OA) and warming. Yet, the combined effects of elevated pCO2 and temperature on coral physiology and resilience remain poorly understood. While coral calcification and energy reserves are important health indicators, no studies to date have measured energy reserve pools (i.e., lipid, protein, and carbohydrate) together with calcification under OA conditions under different temperature scenarios. Four coral species, Acropora millepora, Montipora monasteriata, Pocillopora damicornis, Turbinaria reniformis, were reared under a total of six conditions for 3.5 weeks, representing three pCO2 levels (382, 607, 741 µatm), and two temperature regimes (26.5, 29.0°C) within each pCO2 level. After one month under experimental conditions, only A. millepora decreased calcification (-53%) in response to seawater pCO2 expected by the end of this century, whereas the other three species maintained calcification rates even when both pCO2 and temperature were elevated. Coral energy reserves showed mixed responses to elevated pCO2 and temperature, and were either unaffected or displayed nonlinear responses with both the lowest and highest concentrations often observed at the mid-pCO2 level of 607 µatm. Biweekly feeding may have helped corals maintain calcification rates and energy reserves under these conditions. Temperature often modulated the response of many aspects of coral physiology to OA, and both mitigated and worsened pCO2 effects. This demonstrates for the first time that coral energy reserves are generally not metabolized to sustain calcification under OA, which has important implications for coral health and bleaching resilience in a high-CO2 world. Overall, these findings suggest that some corals could be more resistant to simultaneously warming and acidifying oceans than previously expected.

The benthic foraminiferal community in a naturally CO2-rich coastal habitat of the southwestern Baltic Sea

It is expected that the calcification of foraminifera will be negatively affected by the ongoing acidification of the oceans. Compared to the open oceans, these organisms are subjected to much more adverse carbonate system conditions in coastal and estuarine environments such as the southwestern Baltic Sea, where benthic foraminifera are abundant. This study documents the seasonal changes of carbonate chemistry and the ensuing response of the foraminiferal community with bi-monthly resolution in Flensburg Fjord. In comparison to the surface pCO2, which is close to equilibrium with the atmosphere, we observed large seasonal fluctuations of pCO2 in the bottom and sediment pore waters. The sediment pore water pCO2 was constantly high during the entire year ranging from 1244 to 3324 µatm. Nevertheless, in contrast to the bottom water, sediment pore water was slightly supersaturated with respect to calcite as a consequence of higher alkalinity (AT) for most of the year. Foraminiferal assemblages were dominated by two calcareous species, Ammonia aomoriensis and Elphidium incertum, and the agglutinated Ammotium cassis. The one-year cycle was characterised by seasonal community shifts. Our results revealed that there is no dynamic response of foraminiferal population density and diversity to elevated sediment pore water pCO2. Surprisingly, the fluctuations of sediment pore water undersaturation (Omega calc) co-vary with the population densities of living Ammonia aomoriensis. Further, we observed that most of the tests of living calcifying foraminifera were intact. Only Ammonia aomorienis showed dissolution and recalcification structures on the tests, especially at undersaturated conditions. Therefore, the benthic community is subjected to high pCO2 and tolerates elevated levels as long as sediment pore water remains supersaturated. Model calculations inferred that increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations will finally lead to a perennial undersaturation in sediment pore waters. Whereas benthic foraminifera indeed may cope with a high sediment pore water pCO2, the steady undersaturation of sediment pore waters would likely cause a significant higher mortality of the dominating Ammonia aomoriensis. This shift may eventually lead to changes in the benthic foraminiferal communities in Flensburg Fjord, as well as in other regions experiencing naturally undersaturated Omega calc levels.

Séquestration géologique du CO2 par carbonatation minérale dans les résidus miniers

La carbonatation minérale dans les résidus miniers est un moyen sûr et permanent de séquestrer le CO2 atmosphérique. C’est un processus naturel et passif qui ne nécessite aucun traitement particulier et donc avantageux d’un point de vue économique. Bien que la quantité de CO2 qu’il soit possible de séquestrer selon ce processus est faible à l’échelle globale, dans le cadre d’un marché du carbone, les entreprises minières pourraient obtenir des crédits et ainsi revaloriser leurs résidus. À l’heure actuelle, il y a peu d’informations pour quantifier le potentiel de séquestration du CO2 de façon naturelle et passive dans les piles de résidus miniers. Il est donc nécessaire d’étudier le phénomène pour comprendre comment évolue la réaction à travers le temps et estimer la quantité de CO2 qui peut être séquestrée naturellement dans les piles de résidus. Plusieurs travaux de recherche se sont intéressés aux résidus miniers de Thetford Mines (Québec, Canada), avec une approche principalement expérimentale en laboratoire. Ces travaux ont permis d’améliorer la compréhension du processus de carbonatation, mais ils nécessitent une validation à plus grande échelle sous des conditions atmosphériques réelles. L’objectif général de cette étude est de quantifier le processus de carbonatation minérale des résidus miniers sous des conditions naturelles, afin d’estimer la quantité de CO2 pouvant être piégée par ce processus. La méthodologie utilisée repose sur la construction de deux parcelles expérimentales de résidus miniers situées dans l’enceinte de la mine Black Lake (Thetford Mines). Les résidus miniers sont principalement constitués de grains et de fibres de chrysotile et lizardite mal triés, avec de petites quantités d’antigorite, de brucite et de magnétite. Des observations spatiales et temporelles ont été effectuées dans les parcelles concernant la composition et la pression des gaz, la température des résidus, la teneur en eau volumique, la composition minérale des résidus ainsi que la chimie de l’eau des précipitations et des lixiviats provenant des parcelles. Ces travaux ont permis d’observer un appauvrissement notable du CO2 dans les gaz des parcelles (< 50 ppm) ainsi que la précipitation d’hydromagnésite dans les résidus, ce qui suggère que la carbonatation minérale naturelle et passive est un processus potentiellement important dans les résidus miniers. Après 4 ans d’observations, le taux de séquestration du CO2 dans les parcelles expérimentales a été estimé entre 3,5 et 4 kg/m3/an. Ces observations ont permis de développer un modèle conceptuel de la carbonatation minérale naturelle et passive dans les parcelles expérimentales. Dans ce modèle conceptuel, le CO2 atmosphérique (~ 400 ppm) se dissout dans l’eau hygroscopique contenue dans les parcelles, où l’altération des silicates de magnésium forme des carbonates de magnésium. La saturation en eau dans les cellules est relativement stable dans le temps et varie entre 0,4 et 0,65, ce qui est plus élevé que les valeurs de saturation optimales proposées dans la littérature, réduisant ainsi le transport de CO2 dans la zone non saturée. Les concentrations de CO2 en phase gazeuse, ainsi que des mesures de la vitesse d’écoulement du gaz dans les cellules suggèrent que la réaction est plus active près de la surface et que la diffusion du CO2 est le mécanisme de transport dominant dans les résidus. Un modèle numérique a été utilisé pour simuler ces processus couplés et valider le modèle conceptuel avec les observations de terrain. Le modèle de transport réactif multiphase et multicomposant MIN3P a été utilisé pour réaliser des simulations en 1D qui comprennent l’infiltration d’eau à travers le milieu partiellement saturé, la diffusion du gaz, et le transport de masse réactif par advection et dispersion. Même si les écoulements et le contenu du lixivat simulés sont assez proches des observations de terrain, le taux de séquestration simulé est 22 fois plus faible que celui mesuré. Dans les simulations, les carbonates précipitent principalement dans la partie supérieure de la parcelle, près de la surface, alors qu’ils ont été observés dans toute la parcelle. Cette différence importante pourrait être expliquée par un apport insuffisant de CO2 dans la parcelle, qui serait le facteur limitant la carbonatation. En effet, l’advection des gaz n’a pas été considérée dans les simulations et seule la diffusion moléculaire a été simulée. En effet, la mobilité des gaz engendrée par les fluctuations de pression barométrique et l’infiltration de l’eau, ainsi que l’effet du vent doivent jouer un rôle conséquent pour alimenter les parcelles en CO2.

Influence of Vegetation Removal and Altering Water Levels on CO2 Flux Rates of a Northern Bog

Boreal peatlands contain approximately one third of the global soil carbon and are considered net sinks of atmospheric CO2. Water level position is one of the main regulators of CO2 fluxes in northern peatlands because it controls both the thickness of the aerobic layer in peat and plant communities. However, little is known about the role of different plant functional groups and their possible interaction with changing water level in boreal peatlands with regard to CO2 cycling. Climate change may also accelerate changes in hydrological conditions, changing both aerobic conditions and plant communities. To help answer these questions, this study was conducted at a mesocosm facility in Northern Michigan where the aim was to experimentally study the effects of water levels, plant functional groups (sedges, shrubs and mosses) and the possible interaction of these on the CO2 cycle of a boreal peatland ecosystem. The results indicate that Ericaceous shrubs are important in the boreal peatland CO2 cycle. The removal of these plants decreased ecosystem respiration, gross ecosystem production and net ecosystem exchange rates, whereas removing sedges did not show any significant differences in the flux rates. The water level did not significantly affect the flux rates. The amount of aboveground sedge biomass was higher in the low water level sedge treatment plots compared to the high water level sedge plots, possibly because the lowered water level and the removal of Ericaceae released nutrients for sedges to use up.

Regolith mass balance inferred from combined mineralogical, geochemical and geophysical studies: Mule Hole gneissic watershed, South India

The aim of this study is to propose a method to assess the long-term chemical weathering mass balance for a regolith developed on a heterogeneous silicate substratum at the small experimental watershed scale by adopting a combined approach of geophysics, geochemistry and mineralogy. We initiated in 2003 a study of the steep climatic gradient and associated geomorphologic features of the edge of the rifted continental passive margin of the Karnataka Plateau, Peninsular India. In the transition sub-humid zone of this climatic gradient we have studied the pristine forested small watershed of Mule Hole (4.3 km(2)) mainly developed on gneissic substratum. Mineralogical, geochemical and geophysical investigations were carried out (i) in characteristic red soil profiles and (ii) in boreholes up to 60 m deep in order to take into account the effect of the weathering mantle roots. In addition, 12 Electrical Resistivity Tomography profiles (ERT), with an investigation depth of 30 m, were generated at the watershed scale to spatially characterize the information gathered in boreholes and soil profiles. The location of the ERT profiles is based on a previous electromagnetic survey, with an investigation depth of about 6 m. The soil cover thickness was inferred from the electromagnetic survey combined with a geological/pedological survey. Taking into account the parent rock heterogeneity, the degree of weathering of each of the regolith samples has been defined using both the mineralogical composition and the geochemical indices (Loss on Ignition, Weathering Index of Parker, Chemical Index of Alteration). Comparing these indices with electrical resistivity logs, it has been found that a value of 400 Ohm m delineates clearly the parent rocks and the weathered materials, Then the 12 inverted ERT profiles were constrained with this value after verifying the uncertainty due to the inversion procedure. Synthetic models based on the field data were used for this purpose. The estimated average regolith thickness at the watershed scale is 17.2 m, including 15.2 m of saprolite and 2 m of soil cover. Finally, using these estimations of the thicknesses, the long-term mass balance is calculated for the average gneiss-derived saprolite and red soil. In the saprolite, the open-system mass-transport function T indicates that all the major elements except Ca are depleted. The chlorite and biotite crystals, the chief sources for Mg (95%), Fe (84%), Mn (86%) and K (57%, biotite only), are the first to undergo weathering and the oligoclase crystals are relatively intact within the saprolite with a loss of only 18%. The Ca accumulation can be attributed to the precipitation of CaCO3 from the percolating solution due to the current and/or the paleoclimatic conditions. Overall, the most important losses occur for Si, Mg and Na with -286 x 10(6) mol/ha (62% of the total mass loss), -67 x 10(6) mol/ha (15% of the total mass loss) and -39 x 10(6) mol/ha (9% of the total mass loss), respectively. Al, Fe and K account for 7%, 4% and 3% of the total mass loss, respectively. In the red soil profiles, the open-system mass-transport functions point out that all major elements except Mn are depleted. Most of the oligoclase crystals have broken down with a loss of 90%. The most important losses occur for Si, Na and Mg with -55 x 10(6) mol/ha (47% of the total mass loss), -22 x 10(6) mol/ha (19% of the total mass loss) and -16 x 10(6) mol/ha (14% of the total mass loss), respectively. Ca, Al, K and Fe account for 8%, 6%, 4% and 2% of the total mass loss, respectively. Overall these findings confirm the immaturity of the saprolite at the watershed scale. The soil profiles are more evolved than saprolite but still contain primary minerals that can further undergo weathering and hence consume atmospheric CO2.

Problems with geoengineering schemes to combat climate change

The accelerated rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration in recent years has revived the idea of stabilizing the global climate through geoengineering schemes. Majority of the proposed geoengineering schemes will attempt to reduce the amount of solar radiation absorbed by our planet. Climate modelling studies of these so called 'sunshade geoengineering schemes' show that global warming from increasing concentrations of CO2 can be mitigated by intentionally manipulating the amount of sunlight absorbed by the climate system. These studies also suggest that the residual changes could be large on regional scales, so that climate change may not be mitigated on a local basis. More recent modelling studies have shown that these schemes could lead to a slow-down in the global hydrological cycle. Other problems such as changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle and ocean acidification remain unsolved by sunshade geoengineering schemes. In this article, I review the proposed geoengineering schemes, results from climate models and discuss why geoengineering is not the best option to deal with climate change.

Climate response to physiological forcing of carbon dioxide simulated by the coupled Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.1) and Community Land Model (CLM3.0)

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 decrease stomatal conductance of plants and thus suppress canopy transpiration. The climate response to this CO2-physiological forcing is investigated using the Community Atmosphere Model version 3.1 coupled to Community Land Model version 3.0. In response to the physiological effect of doubling CO2, simulations show a decrease in canopy transpiration of 8%, a mean warming of 0.1K over the land surface, and negligible changes in the hydrological cycle. These climate responses are much smaller than what were found in previous modeling studies. This is largely a result of unrealistic partitioning of evapotranspiration in our model control simulation with a greatly underestimated contribution from canopy transpiration and overestimated contributions from canopy and soil evaporation. This study highlights the importance of a realistic simulation of the hydrological cycle, especially the individual components of evapotranspiration, in reducing the uncertainty in our estimation of climatic response to CO2-physiological forcing. Citation: Cao, L., G. Bala, K. Caldeira, R. Nemani, and G.Ban-Weiss (2009), Climate response to physiological forcing of carbon dioxide simulated by the coupled Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.1) and Community Land Model (CLM3.0).

Interacting effects of vegetation, soils and management on the sensitivity of Australian savanna rangelands to climate change

There is an increasing need to understand what makes vegetation at some locations more sensitive to climate change than others. For savanna rangelands, this requires building knowledge of how forage production in different land types will respond to climate change, and identifying how location-specific land type characteristics, climate and land management control the magnitude and direction of its responses to change. Here, a simulation analysis is used to explore how forage production in 14 land types of the north-eastern Australian rangelands responds to three climate change scenarios of +3A degrees C, +17% rainfall; +2A degrees C, -7% rainfall; and +3A degrees C, -46% rainfall. Our results demonstrate that the controls on forage production responses are complex, with functional characteristics of land types interacting to determine the magnitude and direction of change. Forage production may increase by up to 60% or decrease by up to 90% in response to the extreme scenarios of change. The magnitude of these responses is dependent on whether forage production is water or nitrogen (N) limited, and how climate changes influence these limiting conditions. Forage production responds most to changes in temperature and moisture availability in land types that are water-limited, and shows the least amount of change when growth is restricted by N availability. The fertilisation effects of doubled atmospheric CO2 were found to offset declines in forage production under 2A degrees C warming and a 7% reduction in rainfall. However, rising tree densities and declining land condition are shown to reduce potential opportunities from increases in forage production and raise the sensitivity of pastures to climate-induced water stress. Knowledge of these interactions can be applied in engaging with stakeholders to identify adaptation options.

Forest inventory-based large-scale forest biomass and carbon budget assessment: new enhanced methods and use of remote sensing for verification

In recent years, concern has arisen over the effects of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) in the earth's atmosphere due to the burning of fossil fuels. One way to mitigate increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change is carbon sequestration to forest vegeta-tion through photosynthesis. Comparable regional scale estimates for the carbon balance of forests are therefore needed for scientific and political purposes. The aim of the present dissertation was to improve methods for quantifying and verifying inventory-based carbon pool estimates of the boreal forests in the mineral soils. Ongoing forest inventories provide a data based on statistically sounded sampling for estimating the level of carbon stocks and stock changes, but improved modelling tools and comparison of methods are still needed. In this dissertation, the entire inventory-based large-scale forest carbon stock assessment method was presented together with some separate methods for enhancing and comparing it. The enhancement methods presented here include ways to quantify the biomass of understorey vegetation as well as to estimate the litter production of needles and branches. In addition, the optical remote sensing method illustrated in this dis-sertation can be used to compare with independent data. The forest inventory-based large-scale carbon stock assessment method demonstrated here provided reliable carbon estimates when compared with independent data. Future ac-tivity to improve the accuracy of this method could consist of reducing the uncertainties regarding belowground biomass and litter production as well as the soil compartment. The methods developed will serve the needs for UNFCCC reporting and the reporting under the Kyoto Protocol. This method is principally intended for analysts or planners interested in quantifying carbon over extensive forest areas.