Rates of radiologically confirmed pneumonia as defined by the World Health Organization in Northern Territory Indigenous children

Objective To determine the burden of hospitalised, radiologically confirmed pneumonia (World Health Organization protocol) in Northern Territory Indigenous children. Design, setting and participants Historical, observational study of all hospital admissions for any diagnosis of NT resident Indigenous children, aged between >= 29 days and < 5 years, 1 April 1997 to 31 March 2005. Intervention All chest radiographs taken during these admissions, regardless of diagnosis, were assessed for pneumonia in accordance with the WHO protocol. Main outcome measure The primary outcome was endpoint consolidation (dense fluffy consolidation [alveolar infiltrate] of a portion of a lobe or the entire lung) present on a chest radiograph within 3 days of hospitalisation. Results We analysed data on 24 115 hospitalised episodes of care for 9492 children and 13 683 chest radiographs. The average annual cumulative incidence of endpoint consolidation was 26.6 per 1000 population per year (95% Cl, 25.3-27.9); 57.5 per 1000 per year in infants aged 1-11 months, 38.3 per 1000 per year in those aged 12-23 months, and 13.3 per 1000 per year in those aged 24-59 months. In all age groups, rates of endpoint consolidation in children in the arid southern region of NT were about twice that of children in the tropical northern region. Conclusion The rates of severe pneumonia in hospitalised NT Indigenous children are among the highest reported in the world. Reducing this unacceptable burden of disease should be a national health priority.

Test-retest reliability of four physical activity measures used in population surveys

Accurate monitoring of prevalence and trends in population levels of physical activity (PA) is a fundamental public health need. Test-retest reliability (repeatability) was assessed in population samples for four self-report PA measures: the Active Australia survey (AA, N=356), the short International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ, N=104), the physical activity items in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS, N=127) and in the Australian National Health Survey (NHS, N=122). Percent agreement and Kappa statistics were used to assess reliability of classification of activity status as 'active', 'insufficiently active' or 'sedentary'. Intraclass correlations (ICCs) were used to assess agreement on minutes of activity reported for each item of each survey and for total minutes. Percent agreement scores for activity status were very good on all four instruments, ranging from 60% for the NHS to 79% for the IPAQ. Corresponding Kappa statistics ranged from 0.40 (NHS) to 0.52 (AA). For individual items, ICCs were highest for walking (0.45 to 0.78) and vigorous activity (0.22 to 0.64) and lowest for the moderate questions (0.16 to 0.44). All four measures provide acceptable levels of test-retest reliability for assessing both activity status and sedentariness, and moderate reliability for assessing total minutes of activity.

Compliance with physical activity guidelines : prevalence in a population of children and youth

PURPOSE To use objective monitoring of physical activity to determine the percentages of children and youth in a population that met physical activity guidelines. METHODS A total of 375 students in grades 1–12 wore an accelerometer (CSA 7164) for seven consecutive days. Bouts of continuous activity and accumulation of minutes spent in physical activity at various intensities were calculated to determine how many students met three physical activity guidelines. RESULTS Over 90% of students met Healthy People 2010, Objective 22.6 and nearly 70% met the United Kingdom Expert Consensus Group guideline, both of which recommend daily accumulation of moderate physical activity. Less than 3% met Healthy People 2010, Objective 22.7, which calls for bouts of continuous vigorous physical activity. For the United Kingdom Expert Consensus Group guideline, compliance decreased markedly with age, but gender differences were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS Prevalence estimates for compliance with national physical activity guidelines varied markedly for the three guidelines examined. Objective monitoring of physical activity in youth appears to be feasible and may provide more accurate prevalence rates than self-report measures.

Comparison of surveys used to measure physical activity

Objective To compare the level of agreement in results obtained from four physical activity (PA) measurement instruments that are in use in Australia and around the world. Methods 1,280 randomly selected participants answered two sets of PA questions by telephone. 428 answered the Active Australia (AA) and National Health Surveys, 427 answered the AA and CDC Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System surveys (BRFSS), and 425 answered the AA survey and the short International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ). Results Among the three pairs of survey items, the difference in mean total PA time was lowest when the AA and NHS items were asked (difference=24) (SE:17) minutes, compared with 144 (SE:21) mins for AA/BRFSS and 406 (SE:27) mins for AA/IPAQ). Correspondingly, prevalence estimates for 'sufficiently active' were similar for AA and NHS (56% and 55% respectively), but about 10% higher when BRFSS data were used, and about 26% higher when the IPAQ items were used, compared with estimates from the AA survey. Conclusions The findings clearly demonstrate that there are large differences in reported PA times and hence in prevalence estimates of 'sufficient activity' from these four measures. Implications It is important to consistently use the same survey for population monitoring purposes. As the AA survey has now been used three times in national surveys, its continued use for population surveys is recommended so that trend data ever a longer period of time can be established.

Test-retest reliability of physical activity measures used in Australian population surveys

PURPOSE Accurate monitoring of prevalence and trends in population levels of physical activity is fundamental to the planning of health promotion and disease-prevention strategies. Test-retest reliability (repeatability) was assessed for four self-report measures of physical activity commonly used in population surveys: the Active Australia survey (AA, N=356), the short form of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ-S, N=104), the physical activity items in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS, N=127) and the physical activity items in the Australian National Health Survey (NHS, N=122). METHODS Percent agreement and Kappa statistics were used to assess the reliability of classification of activity status (where ‘active’= 150 minutes of activity per week) and sedentariness (where ‘sedentary’ = reporting no physical activity). Intraclass correlations (ICCs) were used to assess agreement on minutes of activity reported for each item of each survey and on total minutes reported in each survey. RESULTS Percent agreement scores for both activity status and sedentariness were very good on all four instruments. Overall the percent agreement between repeated surveys was between 73% (NHS) and 87% (IPAQ) for the criterion measure of achieving 150 minutes per week, and between 77% (NHS) and 89% (IPAQ) for the criterion of being sedentary. Corresponding Kappa statistics ranged from 0.46 (NHS) to 0.61 (AA) for activity status and from 0.20 (BRFSS) to 0.52 (AA) for sedentariness. For the individual items ICCs were highest for walking (0.45 to 0.56) and vigorous activity (0.22 to 0.64) and lowest for the moderate questions (0.16 to 0.44). CONCLUSION All four measures provide acceptable levels of test-retest reliability for assessing both activity status and sedentariness, and moderate reliability for assessing total minutes of activity. Supported by the Australian Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing.

Global, regional, and national age–sex specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

The Australian prehospital pandemic risk perception study and an examination of new public health roles in pandemic response for ambulance services

This report is one of a series of products resulting from a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Urgent Research Grant – Pandemic Influenza [No 409973]. The research targeted two key aspects of planning and preparedness for a human influenza pandemic, namely:

Developing health literacy through school based health education : can reality match rhetoric

Recently in Australia, the National Health and Hospitals Reform Commission (2009) and National Preventative Health Taskforce (2009) recommended that one way to strengthen consumer engagement within a health system is to ensure health literacy comprise a core element of the National Curriculum for primary and secondary schooling. However, whilst nationally and internationally schools are mandated to teach health education, there is considerable disjuncture between societies' broad expectations and schools' capacities to deliver programs that promote healthy Jiving (Marks, 2010; Basch, 2010). Given the centrality of literacy education in contemporary schooling (Snyder, 2008), 'health literacy' has been identified as a construct that offers the potential to close this perceived gap (McCuaig, Coore & Hay, 2012; Kickbusch, 2001). To date, there has been limited research asto what a health literacy focused, school based health education curriculum could look like.

The epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in China, 2004–2012 : from intensified control to elimination

Background In China, the national malaria elimination programme has been operating since 2010. This study aimed to explore the epidemiological changes in patterns of malaria in China from intensified control to elimination stages. Methods Data on nationwide malaria cases from 2004 to 2012 were extracted from the Chinese national malaria surveillance system. The secular trend, gender and age features, seasonality, and spatial distribution by Plasmodium species were analysed. Results In total, 238,443 malaria cases were reported, and the proportion of Plasmodium falciparum increased drastically from <10% before 2010 to 55.2% in 2012. From 2004 to 2006, malaria showed a significantly increasing trend and with the highest incidence peak in 2006 (4.6/100,000), while from 2007 onwards, malaria decreased sharply to only 0.18/100,000 in 2012. Males and young age groups became the predominantly affected population. The areas affected by Plasmodium vivax malaria shrunk, while areas affected by P. falciparum malaria expanded from 294 counties in 2004 to 600 counties in 2012. Conclusions This study demonstrated that malaria has decreased dramatically in the last five years, especially since the Chinese government launched a malaria elimination programme in 2010, and areas with reported falciparum malaria cases have expanded over recent years. These findings suggest that elimination efforts should be improved to meet these changes, so as to achieve the nationwide malaria elimination goal in China in 2020.

Where to after Drink Rite: An evaluation of opportunities for police and community promotion of an anti-drink driving message in the licensed venue setting. Report to the National Drug Strategy Law Enforcement Funding Committee

Estimating the prevalence of drink driving is a difficult task. Self‐reported drink driving indicates that drink driving is far more common than official statistics suggest. In order to promote a responsible attitude towards alcohol consumption and drink driving within the Queensland community, the Queensland Police Service, Queensland Health and Queensland Transport developed the ‘Drink Rite’ program (Queensland Police Service information sheet, 2009). However, the feasibility of the program is now in doubt as the National Health and Medical Research Council’s guidelines for alcohol consumption changed in 2009 to state “For healthy men and women, drinking no more than four standard drinks on a single occasion reduces the risk of alcohol‐related injury arising from that occasion” (NHMRC Publication, 2009, p. 51). As such, adhering to the NHMRC guidelines places restrictions on how the existing Drink Rite program can be operated (i.e. by reducing the number of standard drinks provided to participants from eight to four). It is arguable that a reduction in the number of alcoholic drinks provided to participants in the program will result in a large reduction in observed BAC readings. This, in turn, will lead to a potential loss of message content when discussing the variation in the effects of alcohol.

Differences in identifying healthcare associated infections using clinical vignettes and the influence of respondent characteristics: A cross-sectional survey of Australian infection prevention staff

Background Australia has commenced public reporting and benchmarking of healthcare associated infections (HAIs), despite not having a standardised national HAI surveillance program. Annual hospital Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream (SAB) infection rates are released online, with other HAIs likely to be reported in the future. Although there are known differences between hospitals in Australian HAI surveillance programs, the effect of these differences on reported HAI rates is not known. Objective To measure the agreement in HAI identification, classification, and calculation of HAI rates, and investigate the influence of differences amongst those undertaking surveillance on these outcomes. Methods A cross-sectional online survey exploring HAI surveillance practices was administered to infection prevention nurses who undertake HAI surveillance. Seven clinical vignettes describing HAI scenarios were included to measure agreement in HAI identification, classification, and calculation of HAI rates. Data on characteristics of respondents was also collected. Three of the vignettes were related to surgical site infection and four to bloodstream infection. Agreement levels for each of the vignettes were calculated. Using the Australian SAB definition, and the National Health and Safety Network definitions for other HAIs, we looked for an association between the proportion of correct answers and the respondents’ characteristics. Results Ninety-two infection prevention nurses responded to the vignettes. One vignette demonstrated 100 % agreement from responders, whilst agreement for the other vignettes varied from 53 to 75 %. Working in a hospital with more than 400 beds, working in a team, and State or Territory was associated with a correct response for two of the vignettes. Those trained in surveillance were more commonly associated with a correct response, whilst those working part-time were less likely to respond correctly. Conclusion These findings reveal the need for further HAI surveillance support for those working part-time and in smaller facilities. It also confirms the need to improve uniformity of HAI surveillance across Australian hospitals, and raises questions on the validity of the current comparing of national HAI SAB rates.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refi nements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2∙4 billion and 1∙6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537∙6 million in 1990 to 764∙8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114∙87 per 1000 people to 110∙31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world’s population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to nonfatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.

Rationing in healthcare

Rationing healthcare in some form is inevitable, even in wealthy countries, because resources are scarce and demand for healthcare is always likely to exceed supply. This means that decision-makers must make choices about which health programs and initiatives should receive public funding and which ones should not. These choices are often difficult to make, particularly in Australia, because: - 1 Make explicit rationing based on a national decision-making tool (such as Multi-criteria Decision Analysis) standard process in all jurisdictions. - 2 Develop nationally consistent methods for conducting economic evaluation in health so that good quality evidence on the relative efficiency of various programs and initiatives is generated. - 3 Generate more economic evaluation evidence to inform rationing decisions. - 4 Revise national health performance indicators so that they include true health system efficiency indicators, such as cost-effectiveness. - 5 Apply the Comprehensive Management Framework used to evaluate items on the Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS) to the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) and the Prosthesis List to accelerate disinvestment from low-value drugs and prostheses. - 6 Seek agreement among Commonwealth, state and territory governments to work together to undertake work similar to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence in the United Kingdom and the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health.

Women’s Wellness after Cancer Program Study (WWACP)– A multi centre randomised controlled trial examining the benefits and cost effectiveness of an Evidenced Based, e-health intervention

Background Advances in cancer diagnosis and treatment have significantly improved survival rates, through their subsequent health needs are often not adequately addressed by current health services. National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Partnerships Project awarded a national collaborative project to develop, trial and evaluate clinical benefits and cost effectiveness of an e-health enabled structured health promotion intervention - The Women’s Wellness after Cancer Program (WWACP). The aim of this e-health enabled multimodal intervention is to improve health related quality of life in women previously treated for target cancers. Aim The WWACP is a 12-week web based, interactive, holistic program. Primary outcomes for this project are to promote a positive change in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and reduction in Body Mass Index (BMI) in the women undertaking WWACP compared to women who receive usual care. Secondary outcomes include managing other side effects of cancer treatment through evidence-based nutrition and exercise practices, dealing with stress, sleep, menopause and sexuality issues. Methods The single-blinded multi-center randomized controlled trial recruited a toatl of 330 women within 24 months of completion of chemotherapy and /or radiotherapy. Women were randomly assigned to either a usual care or intervention group. Women provided with the intervention were provided with an interactive iBook and journal, web interface, and three virtual consultations by experienced cancer nurses. A variety of methods were utilized, to enable positive self- efficacy and lifestyle changes. These include online coaching with a registered nurse trained in the intervention, plus written educational and health promotional information. The program has been delivered through the e-health enabled interfaces, which enables virtual delivery via desktop and mobile computing devices. Importantly this enables accessibility for rural and regional women in Australia who are frequently geographically disadvantaged in terms of health care provision. Results Research focusing on alternative methods of delivering post treatment / or survivorship care in cancer utilizing web based interfaces is limited, but emerging evidence suggests that Internet interventions can increase psychological and physical wellbeing in cancer patients. The WWACP trial aims to establish the effectiveness of delivery of the program in terms of positive patient outcomes and cost effective, flexibility. The trial will be completed in September and results will be presented at the conference. Conclusions Women after acute hematological, breast and gynecological cancer treatments demonstrate good cancer survival rates and face residual health problems which are amenable to behavioral interventions. The conclusion of active treatment is a key 'teachable moment' in which sustainable positive lifestyle change can be achieved if patients receive education and psychological support which targets key treatment related health problems and known chronic disease risk factors.