Robust conservation decision-making

Decision-making for conservation is conducted within the margins of limited funding. Furthermore, to allocate these scarce resources we make assumptions about the relationship between management impact and expenditure. The structure of these relationships, however, is rarely known with certainty. We present a summary of work investigating the impact of model uncertainty on robust decision-making in conservation and how this is affected by available conservation funding. We show that achieving robustness in conservation decisions can require a triage approach, and emphasize the need for managers to consider triage not as surrendering but as rational decision making to ensure species persistence in light of the urgency of the conservation problems, uncertainty, and the poor state of conservation funding. We illustrate this theory by a specific application to allocation of funding to reduce poaching impact on the Sumatran tiger Panthera tigris sumatrae in Kerinci Seblat National Park, Indonesia. To conserve our environment, conservation managers must make decisions in the face of substantial uncertainty. Further, they must deal with the fact that limitations in budgets and temporal constraints have led to a lack of knowledge on the systems we are trying to preserve and on the benefits of the actions we have available (Balmford & Cowling 2006). Given this paucity of decision-informing data there is a considerable need to assess the impact of uncertainty on the benefit of management options (Regan et al. 2005). Although models of management impact can improve decision making (e.g.Tenhumberg et al. 2004), they typically rely on assumptions around which there is substantial uncertainty. Ignoring this 'model uncertainty', can lead to inferior decision-making (Regan et al. 2005), and potentially, the loss of the species we are trying to protect. Current methods used in ecology allow model uncertainty to be incorporated into the model selection process (Burnham & Anderson 2002; Link & Barker 2006), but do not enable decision-makers to assess how this uncertainty would change a decision. This is the basis of information-gap decision theory (info-gap); finding strategies most robust to model uncertainty (Ben-Haim 2006). Info-gap has permitted conservation biology to make the leap from recognizing uncertainty to explicitly incorporating severe uncertainty into decision-making. In this paper we present a summary of McDonald-Madden et al (2008a) who use an info-gap framework to address the impact of uncertainty in the functional representations of biological systems on conservation decision-making. Furthermore, we highlight the importance of two key elements limiting conservation decision-making - funding and knowledge - and how they interact to influence the best management strategy for a threatened species. Copyright © ASCE 2011.

Ship Seakeeping Operability, Motion Control, and Autonomy - A Bayesian Perspective

Ship seakeeping operability refers to the quantification of motion performance in waves relative to mission requirements. This is used to make decisions about preferred vessel designs, but it can also be used as comprehensive assessment of the benefits of ship-motion-control systems. Traditionally, operability computation aggregates statistics of motion computed over over the envelope of likely environmental conditions in order to determine a coefficient in the range from 0 to 1 called operability. When used for assessment of motion-control systems, the increase of operability is taken as the key performance indicator. The operability coefficient is often given the interpretation of the percentage of time operable. This paper considers an alternative probabilistic approach to this traditional computation of operability. It characterises operability not as a number to which a frequency interpretation is attached, but as a hypothesis that a vessel will attain the desired performance in one mission considering the envelope of likely operational conditions. This enables the use of Bayesian theory to compute the probability of that this hypothesis is true conditional on data from simulations. Thus, the metric considered is the probability of operability. This formulation not only adheres to recent developments in reliability and risk analysis, but also allows incorporating into the analysis more accurate descriptions of ship-motion-control systems since the analysis is not limited to linear ship responses in the frequency domain. The paper also discusses an extension of the approach to the case of assessment of increased levels of autonomy for unmanned marine craft.

Sustaining productivity of tropical red snappers using new monitoring and reference points

OBJECTIVES: 1. Analyse current monitoring and logbook data sets, as well as survey and other information,to establish whether these data provide sufficient power to develop critical indicators of fishery performance. 2. Provide a risk analysis that examines the use of age structure and catch rate information for development of critical indicators, and response rules for those criteria, in the absence of other fishery information. 3. Develop a monitoring program that uses commercial vessels from the fishery to provide independent data.

An incident database for improving metro safety: The case of shanghai

Large cities depend heavily on their metro systems to reduce traffic congestion, which is particularly the case with Shanghai, the largest and most developed city in China. For the purposes of enhancing the possibility in quantitative risk assessment and promoting the safety management level in Shanghai metro, an adaptable metro operation incident database (MOID) is therefore presented for containing details of all incidents that have occurred in metro operation. Taking compatibility and simplicity into consideration, Microsoft Access 2010 software is used for the comprehensive and thorough design of the MOID. Based on MOID, statistical characteristics of incident, such as types, causes, time, and severity, are discovered and 24 accident precursors are identified in Shanghai metro. The processes are demonstrated to show how the MOID can be used to identify trends in the incidents that have occurred and to anticipate and prevent future accidents. In order to promote the application of MOID, an organizational structure is proposed from the four aspects of supervision, research, implementation, and manufacturer. This research would be conducive to safety risk analysis in identifying relevant precursors in safety management and assessing safety level as a qualitative tool.

Causes and consequences of variation in nestling immune function

Defence against pathogens is a vital need of all living organisms that has led to the evolution of complex immune mechanisms. However, although immunocompetence the ability to resist pathogens and control infection has in recent decades become a focus for research in evolutionary ecology, the variation in immune function observed in natural populations is relatively little understood. This thesis examines sources of this variation (environmental, genetic and maternal effects) during the nestling stage and its fitness consequences in wild populations of passerines: the blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) and the collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis). A developing organism may face a dilemma as to whether to allocate limited resources to growth or to immune defences. The optimal level of investment in immunity is shaped inherently by specific requirements of the environment. If the probability of contracting infection is low, maintaining high growth rates even at the expense of immune function may be advantageous for nestlings, as body mass is usually a good predictor of post-fledging survival. In experiments with blue tits and haematophagous hen fleas (Ceratophyllus gallinae) using two methods, methionine supplementation (to manipulate nestlings resource allocation to cellular immune function) and food supplementation (to increase resource availability), I confirmed that there is a trade-off between growth and immunity and that the abundance of ectoparasites is an environmental factor affecting allocation of resources to immune function. A cross-fostering experiment also revealed that environmental heterogeneity in terms of abundance of ectoparasites may contribute to maintaining additive genetic variation in immunity and other traits. Animal model analysis of extensive data collected from the population of collared flycatchers on Gotland (Sweden) allowed examination of the narrow-sense heritability of PHA-response the most commonly used index of cellular immunocompetence in avian studies. PHA-response is not heritable in this population, but is subject to a non-heritable origin (presumably maternal) effect. However, experimental manipulation of yolk androgen levels indicates that the mechanism of the maternal effect in PHA-response is not in ovo deposition of androgens. The relationship between PHA-response and recruitment was studied for over 1300 collared flycatcher nestlings. Multivariate selection analysis shows that it is body mass, not PHA-response, that is under direct selection. PHA-response appears to be related to recruitment because of its positive relationship with body mass. These results imply that either PHA-response fails to capture the immune mechanisms that are relevant for defence against pathogens encountered by fledglings or that the selection pressure from parasites is not as strong as commonly assumed.

Primary Dislocation of the Patella : A Clinical Study

A total of 177 patients with primary dislocation of the patella (PDP) were admitted to two trauma centers in Helsinki, Finland during 1991 to 1992. The inclusion criteria were: 1. Acute (≤14 days old) first-time lateral dislocation of the patella. 2. No previous knee operations or major knee injuries. 3. No ligament injuries to be repaired. 4. No osteochondral fractures requiring fixation. 50 patients were excluded. 30 of these excluded patients would have met the inclusion criteria, 19 patients received treatment by consultants not involved in the study, 7 refused to participate and 4 had an erroneous randomization. 127 patients including, 82 females, were then randomized to have either tailor-made operative procedure (group O) or conservative treatment (group C). The aftercare was similar for both groups. The mean age of the patients was 20 (9-47) years. All patients were subjected to analysis of trauma history (starting position and knee movement during the dislocation), examination under anesthesia (EUA) and arthroscopy. 70 patients (52 females) were randomized by their odd year of birth to operative group O and 57 patients (30 females) by their even year of birth to conservative group C. The diagnosis of PDP was based on locked dislocation in 68 patients, on dislocatability in EUA in 47 patients, and on subluxation in EUA combined with typical intra-articular lesions in 12 patients. In group O, 63 patients had exploration of the injuries on the medial side of the knee and tailor made reconstruction added with lateral release in 54 cases. The medial injury was operated by suturing in 39 patients, by duplication in 18 patients and by additional augmentation of the medial patellofemoral ligament (MPFL) with adductor magnus tenodesis in 6 patients. 7 patients, without locking in trauma history and only subluxation in EUA had only lateral release for realignment. In adductor magnus tenodesis the proximal end of the distal tendinous part was rerouted to the upper medial border of the patella. In the conservative group C, the treatment was adjusted to the extent of patellar displacement in EUA. Patients with dislocation in EUA had 3 weeks’ immobilization with the knee in slight flexion. Mobilization was started with a soft patellar stabilizing orthosis (PSO) used for additional three weeks. The patients with subluxation in EUA wore an orthosis for six weeks. The aftercare was similar in group O. The outcome was similar in both groups. After an average of 25 (20-45) months´ follow-up, the subjective result was better in group C in respect of the mean Hughston VAS knee score (87 for group O and 90 for group C, p=0.04, visual analog scale), but similar in terms of the patient’s own overall opinion and the mean Lysholm II knee score. Recurrent instability episodes occurred in 18 patients in group O and in 20 patients in group C. After an average of 7 (6-9) years´ follow-up, the groups did not show statistical difference either in respect of the patient’s own overall opinion, or the mean Hughston VAS and Kujala knee scores. The proportions of stable patellae was 25/70 (36%) in group O and 17/57 (30%) in group O (p=0.5). In a multivariate risk analysis, there was a correlation between low Kujala score (<90) as dependent parameter and female gender (OR: 3.5; 95% CI: 1.4-9.0), and loose body on primary radiographs (OR: 4.1; 95% CI: 1.2-15). Recurrent instability correlated with young age at the time of PDP (OR: 0.9; 95% CI: 0.8-1.0/year). Girls with open tibial apophysis had the worst prognosis for instability (88%; 95% CI: 77-98). The most common mechanisms in trauma history of the patients were movement to flexion from a straight start (78%) and movement to extension from a well-bent start (8%). Spontaneous relocation of the patella had taken place in 13/39 of girls, in 11/21 of boys, in 26/42 of women and in 17/24 of men with skeletal maturity of the tibia. The dislocation in EUA was non-rotating in 96/126 patients followed by outward rotating dislocation in 14/126 patients. Operative treatment policy in PDP is not recommended. Locking tendency of the patella in PDP depended on the skeletal maturation. Recurrence rate after PDP was higher than expected.

A checking method for probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment: case studies on three cities

The conventional Cornell's source-based approach of probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment (PSHA) has been employed all around the world, whilst many studies often rely on the use of computer packages such as FRISK (McGuire FRISK-a computer program for seismic risk analysis. Open-File Report 78-1007, United States Geological Survey, Department of Interior, Washington 1978) and SEISRISK III (Bender and Perkins SEISRISK III-a computer program for seismic hazard estimation, Bulletin 1772. United States Geological Survey, Department of Interior, Washington 1987). A ``black-box'' syndrome may be resulted if the user of the software does not have another simple and robust PSHA method that can be used to make comparisons. An alternative method for PSHA, namely direct amplitude-based (DAB) approach, has been developed as a heuristic and efficient method enabling users to undertake their own sanity checks on outputs from computer packages. This paper experiments the application of the DAB approach for three cities in China, Iran, and India, respectively, and compares with documented results computed by the source-based approach. Several insights regarding the procedure of conducting PSHA have also been obtained, which could be useful for future seismic-hazard studies.

SCARA motako robot industrialaren simulazio birtuala eta interakzioa

[EU]Gradu amaierako lan honetan, Industria Ingenieritza graduan zehar emandako zenbait irakasgaietan landutako kontzeptuak oinarri bezala hartuta SCARA robot industrialaren analisia egin da. Lau askatasun gradu dituzten robot hauek oso erabiliak dira industrian beraien lan ziklo azkar, karga handiak jasateko kapazitate, errepikortasun eta aplikazio ugariengatik. Proiektua, bi zati nagusitan banandu da: SCARA motako robot baten analisi zinematikoa, robotaren irudikapena eta ibilbideen sorkuntza Matlab programa erabiliz. Adept Cobra e-Vario 600, SCARA motako prototipo errealarekin interakzioa. Proiektuan zehar garatuko diren edukien egitura ondorengoa izango da: Lehenik eta behin, proiektuko lehen atalean proiektua kokatuta dagoen testuinguruaren azalpena emango da, baita ere testuinguru horrek gaur egun, sail desberdinetan, duen garrantzia. Proiektuko bigarren atalean, lana egiterakoan proposatu diren helburuak eta proiektuak eskaintzen dituen onurak adieraziko dira. Bestetik, proiektuko hirugarren atalean, gaiaren egoeran, SCARA robotera heldu arte robotek historian zehar izan duten garapena eta hauen sailkapen desberdinak azalduko dira. Laugarren atalean, metodologian, proiektu honetan garatuko diren bi zati nagusien deskribapen zehatza emango da. Azkenik, proiektuko azken atalean, lana burutzeko bete behar izan diren ataza bakoitzaren deskribapena eta iraupena, aurrekontua, arriskuen analisia eta proiektu honetatik atera ditugun ondorioak ematen dira.

Estudo do impacto do complexo petroquímico COMPERJ na atmosfera

Os modelos de dispersão de ar têm sido utilizados amplamente para investigação de padrões de dispersão, comportamento de emissões, estimativas de potenciais riscos a saúde humana, elaboração de propostas de gerenciamento ambiental e, também, na previsão de impacto da qualidade do ar. Alguns modelos, homologados por agência de regulação de alguns países ou comunidades, servem de base para as análises de risco com auxílio de simulação. Somente após este tipo de análise uma unidade fabril terá direito à sua instalação e operação nestes países. Nesta dissertação, serão abordados os principais poluentes presentes em uma indústria petroquímica básica, uma revisão sobre os principais tipos de modelos existentes no mercado e um estudo de caso será realizado empregando os modelos AERMOD e OZIPR/SAPRC. A indústria petroquímica básica a servir de modelo será o Complexo Petroquímico do Rio de Janeiro, que deverá ser instalado no município de Itaboraí e com operação prevista para o ano de 2012. De acordo com as simulações realizadas neste trabalho, o poluente NOx apresentou os resultados mais críticos violando em algumas áreas os padrões primários e secundários de emissão. Diante deste fato, o ozônio se tornou um poluente secundário importante a ser analisado. E para sua simulação, premissas tiveram que ser tomadas, devido a ausência de dados, criando cenários que apresentaram resultados díspares: Ora violando os limites, ora se mantendo abaixo deles. Apesar disso, estes cenários apontaram a mesma solução para minimizar esta formação de ozônio: controlar as emissões de compostos orgânicos voláteis.

Análisis de consecuencias de un escape de metanol en un establecimiento afectado por el RD 1254/1999

[ES]El presente trabajo se centra en el RD 1254/1999, decreto que obliga a aquellos establecimientos que trabajan con sustancias peligrosas y pueden ocasionar accidentes graves con consecuencias en el exterior (nube tóxica, explosión, incendio, radiación, etc.) a hacer un análisis de riesgo de los mencionados accidentes. En base a este análisis se programan los planes de autoprotección así como los planes de emergencia exterior y se establecen los sistemas de gestión de la seguridad. Se estudia un caso práctico en el que se elabora el Análisis de Riesgo de una planta en la que se almacena metanol, y se calculan las distancias a las que llegarían las consecuencias dañinas en caso de accidentes con el metanol.