Cyclone intensity categories

The weather forecast centers in Australia and many other countries use a scale of cyclone intensity categories (categories 1-5) in their cyclone advisories, which are considered to be indicative of the cyclone damage potential. However, this scale is mainly based on maximum gust wind speeds. In a recent research project involving computer modeling of cyclonic wind forces on roof claddings and fatigue damage to claddings, it was found that cyclone damage not only depends on the maximum gust wind speed, but also on two other cyclone parameters, namely, the forward speed and radius to maximum winds. This paper describes the computer model used in predicting the cyclone damage to claddings and investigates the damage potential of a cyclone as a function of all the relevant cyclone parameters, based on which it attempts to refine the current scale of cyclone intensity categories.

Late Pleistocene stratigraphy of IODP Site U1396 and compiled chronology offshore of south and south west Montserrat, Lesser Antilles

Marine sediments around volcanic islands contain an archive of volcaniclastic deposits, which can be used to reconstruct the volcanic history of an area. Such records hold many advantages over often incomplete terrestrial datasets. This includes the potential for precise and continuous dating of intervening sediment packages, which allow a correlatable and temporally-constrained stratigraphic framework to be constructed across multiple marine sediment cores. Here, we discuss a marine record of eruptive and mass-wasting events spanning ~250 ka offshore of Montserrat, using new data from IODP Expedition 340, as well as previously collected cores. By using a combination of high-resolution oxygen isotope stratigraphy, AMS radiocarbon dating, biostratigraphy of foraminifera and calcareous nannofossils and clast componentry, we identify five major events at Soufriere Hills volcano since 250 ka. Lateral correlation of these events across sediment cores collected offshore of the south and south west of Montserrat, have improved our understanding of the timing, extent and associations between events in this area. Correlations reveal that powerful and potentially erosive density-currents travelled at least 33 km offshore, and demonstrate that marine deposits, produced by eruption-fed and mass-wasting events on volcanic islands, are heterogeneous in their spatial distribution. Thus, multiple drilling/coring sites are needed to reconstruct the full chronostratigraphy of volcanic islands. This multidisciplinary study will be vital to interpreting the chaotic records of submarine landslides at other sites drilled during Expedition 340 and provides a framework that can be applied to the stratigraphic analysis of sediments surrounding other volcanic islands.

Antimicrobial stewardship activities : a survey of Queensland hospitals

Objective: In 2011, the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care (ACSQHC) recommended that all hospitals in Australia must have an Antimicrobial Stewardship (AMS) program by 2013. Nevertheless, little is known about current AMS activities. This study aimed to determine the AMS activities currently undertaken, and to identify gaps, barriers to implementation and opportunities for improvement in Queensland hospitals. Methods: The AMS activities of 26 facilities from 15 hospital and health services in Queensland were surveyed during June 2012 to address strategies for effective AMS: implementing clinical guidelines, formulary restriction, reviewing antimicrobial prescribing, auditing antimicrobial use and selective reporting of susceptibility results. Results: The response rate was 62%. Nineteen percent had an AMS team (a dedicated multidisciplinary team consisting of a medically trained staff member and a pharmacist). All facilities had access to an electronic version of Therapeutic Guidelines: Antibiotic, with a further 50% developing local guidelines for antimicrobials. One-third of facilities had additional restrictions. Eighty-eight percent had advice for restricted antimicrobials from in-house infectious disease physicians or clinical microbiologists. Antimicrobials were monitored with feedback given to prescribers at point of care by 76% of facilities. Deficiencies reported as barriers to establishing AMS programs included: pharmacy resources, financial support by hospital management, and training and education in antimicrobial use. Conclusions: Several areas for improvement were identified: reviewing antimicrobial prescribing with feedback to the prescriber, auditing, and training and education in antimicrobial use. There also appears to be a lack of resources to support AMS programs in some facilities. What is known about the topic? The ACSQHC has recommended that all hospitals implement an AMS program by 2013 as a requirement of Standard 3 (Preventing and Controlling Healthcare-Associated Infections) of the National Safety and Quality Health Service Standards. The intent of AMS is to ensure appropriate prescribing of antimicrobials as part of the broader systems within a health service organisation to prevent and manage healthcare-associated infections, and improve patient safety and quality of care. This criterion also aligns closely with Standard 4: Medication Safety. Despite this recommendation, little is known about what AMS activities are undertaken in these facilities and what additional resources would be required in order to meet these national standards. What does the paper add? This is the first survey that has been conducted of public hospital and health services in Queensland, a large decentralised state in Australia. This paper describes what AMS activities are currently being undertaken, identifies practice gaps, barriers to implementation and opportunities for improvement in Queensland hospitals. What are the implications for practitioners? Several areas for improvement such as reviewing antimicrobial prescribing with feedback to the prescriber, auditing, and training and education in antimicrobial use have been identified. In addition, there appears to be a lack of resources to support AMS programs in some facilities.

High-resolution GNSS-tracked drifter for studying surface dispersion in shallow water

The use of GNSS tracked Lagrangian drifters allows more realistic quantification of fluid motion and dispersion coefficients than Eulerian techniques because such drifters are analogues of particles that are relevant to flow field characterisation and pollutant dispersion. Using the fast growing Real Time Kinematic (RTK) positioning technique derived from Global Satellite Navigation Systems (GNSS), drifters are developed for high frequency (10 Hz) sampling with position estimates to centimetre accuracy. The drifters are designed with small size and less direct wind drag to follow the sub-surface flow which characterizes dispersion in shallow waters. An analysis of position error from stationary observation indicates that the drifter can efficiently resolve motion up to 1 Hz. The result of the field deployments of the drifter in conjunction with acoustic Eulerian devices shows higher estimate of the drifter streamwise velocities. Single particle statistical analysis of field deployments in a shallow estuarine zone yielded dispersion coefficients estimate comparable to those of dye tracer studies. The drifters capture the tidal elevation during field studies in a tidal estuary.

Investigation into chemistry of new particle formation and growth in subtropical urban environment

The role of different chemical compounds, particularly organics, involved in the new particle formation (NPF) and its consequent growth are not fully understood. Therefore, this study was conducted to investigate the chemistry of aerosol particles during NPF events in an urban subtropical environment. Aerosol chemical composition was measured along with particle number size distribution (PNSD) and several other air quality parameters at five sites across an urban subtropical environment. An Aerodyne compact Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (c-TOF-AMS) and a TSI Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS) measured aerosol chemical composition and PNSD, respectively. Five NPF events, with growth rates in the range 3.3-4.6 nm, were detected at two sites. The NPF events happened on relatively warmer days with lower humidity and higher solar radiation. Temporal percent fractions of nitrate, sulphate, ammonium and organics were modelled using the Generalised Additive Model (GAM), with a basis of penalised spline. Percent fractions of organics increased after the NPF events, while the mass fraction of ammonium and sulphate decreased. This uncovered the important role of organics in the growth of newly formed particles. Three organic markers, factors f43, f44 and f57, were calculated and the f44 vs f43 trends were compared between nucleation and non-nucleation days. f44 vs f43 followed a different pattern on nucleation days compared to non-nucleation days, whereby f43 decreased for vehicle emission generated particles, while both f44 and f43 decreased for NPF generated particles. It was found for the first time that vehicle generated and newly formed particles cluster in different locations on f44 vs f43 plot and this finding can be used as a tool for source apportionment of measured particles.

Community Controlled Health Services: What They Are and How They Work

This chapter provides an overview of the role of community controlled health services and health sector and the role of the nurse.

Narrow linewidth DFB waveguide laser fabricated via ultrafast laser inscription

Linewidth measurement of a femtosecond laser direct-written distributed feedback (DFB) waveguide laser (WGL) is reported. The WGL was fabricated in Yb-doped phosphate glass using the femtosecond laser direct-write technique. The linewidth was measured using a loss-compensated recirculating delayed self-heterodyne interferometer. By recirculating the output signal in a 10.2-km fiber delay loop, the linewidth was measured to be 35.4±1.4 kHz at a delay time of 306 μs , which is comparable with that of narrow-linewidth fiber DFB lasers.

High-Pressure Kinetics of Vinyl Polyperoxides

This is the first report on studies carried out in detail on high-pressure oxygen copolymerization (> 50 psi) of the vinyl monomers styrene and alpha-methylstyrene (AMS). The saturation pressure of oxygen for AMS oxidation, hitherto obscure, is found to be 300 psi. Whereas the ease of oxidation is more favorable for styrene, the rate and yield of polyperoxide formation are higher for AMS. This is explained on the basis of the reactivity of the corresponding alkyl and peroxy radicals. Below 50 degrees C, degradation of the poly(styrene peroxide) formed is about 2.5 times less than that observed above 50 degrees C, so much so that it gives a break in the rate curve, and thereafter the rate is lowered. Normal free radical kinetics is followed before the break point, after which the monomer and initiator exponents become unusually high. This is interpreted on the basis of chain transfer to the degradation products. The low molecular weight of polyperoxides has been attributed to the (i) low reactivity of RO(2)(.) toward the monomer, (ii) chain transfer to degradation products, (iii) facile cleavage of O-O bond, followed by unzipping to nonradical products, and (iv) higher stability of the reinitiating radicals. At lower temperatures, (i) predominates, whereas at higher temperatures, chiefly (ii)-(iv) are the case.

On The Topology Of Manifolds With Positive Isotropic Curvature

We show that a closed orientable Riemannian n-manifold, n >= 5, with positive isotropic curvature and free fundamental group is homeomorphic to the connected sum of copies of Sn-1 x S-1.

Regional Differences in the Influence of Irrigation on Climate

A global climate model experiment is performed to evaluate the effect of irrigation on temperatures in several major irrigated regions of the world. The Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.3, was modified to represent irrigation for the fraction of each grid cell equipped for irrigation according to datasets from the Food and Agriculture Organization. Results indicate substantial regional differences in the magnitude of irrigation-induced cooling, which are attributed to three primary factors: differences in extent of the irrigated area, differences in the simulated soil moisture for the control simulation (without irrigation), and the nature of cloud response to irrigation. The last factor appeared especially important for the dry season in India, although further analysis with other models and observations are needed to verify this feedback. Comparison with observed temperatures revealed substantially lower biases in several regions for the simulation with irrigation than for the control, suggesting that the lack of irrigation may be an important component of temperature bias in this model or that irrigation compensates for other biases. The results of this study should help to translate the results from past regional efforts, which have largely focused on the United States, to regions in the developing world that in many cases continue to experience significant expansion of irrigated land.

Investigation and application of methods for enumerating heterotrophs and Escherichia coli in the air within piggery sheds

Aims: To investigate methods for the recovery of airborne bacteria within pig sheds and to then use the appropriate methods to determine the levels of heterotrophs and Escherichia coli in the air within sheds. Methods and Results: AGI-30 impingers and a six-stage Andersen multi-stage sampler (AMS) were used for the collection of aerosols. Betaine and catalase were added to impinger collection fluid and the agar plates used in the AMS. Suitable media for enumerating E. coli with the Andersen sampler were also evaluated. The addition of betaine and catalase gave no marked increase in the recovery of heterotrophs or E. coli. No marked differences were found in the media used for enumeration of E. coli. The levels of heterotrophs and E. coli in three piggeries, during normal pig activities, were 2Æ2 · 105 and 21 CFU m)3 respectively. Conclusions: The failure of the additives to improve the recovery of either heterotrophs or E. coli suggests that these organisms are not stressed in the piggery environment. The levels of heterotrophs in the air inside the three Queensland piggeries investigated are consistent with those previously reported in other studies. Flushing with ponded effluent had no marked or consistent effect on the heterotroph or E. coli levels. Significance and Impact of the Study: Our work suggests that levels of airborne heterotrophs and E. coli inside pig sheds have no strong link with effluent flushing. It would seem unlikely that any single management activity within a pig shed has a dominant influence on levels of airborne heterotrophs and E. coli

Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

Insights into the growth of newly formed particles in a subtropical urban environment

The role of different chemical compounds, particularly organics, involved in the new particle formation (NPF) and its consequent growth are not fully understood. Therefore, this study was conducted to investigate the chemical composition of aerosol particles during NPF events in an urban subtropical environment. Aerosol chemical composition was measured along with particle number size distribution (PNSD) and several other air quality parameters at five sites across an urban subtropical environment. An Aerodyne compact Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (c-TOF-AMS) and a TSI Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS) measured aerosol chemical composition (particles above 50 nm in vacuum aerodynamic diameter) and PNSD (particles within 9-414 nm in mobility diameter), respectively. Five NPF events, with growth rates in the range 3.3-4.6 nm, were detected at two of the sites. The NPF events happened on relatively warmer days with lower condensation sink (CS). Temporal percent fractions of organics increased after the particles grew enough to have a significant contribution to particles volume, while the mass fraction of ammonium and sulphate decreased. This uncovered the important role of organics in the growth of newly formed particles. Three organic markers, factors f43, f44 and f57, were calculated and the f44 vs f43 trends were compared between nucleation and non-nucleation days. K-means cluster analysis was performed on f44 vs f43 data and it was found that they follow different patterns on nucleation days compared to non-nucleation days, whereby f43 decreased for vehicle emission generated particles, while both f44 and f43 decreased for NPF generated particles. It was found for the first time that vehicle generated and newly formed particles cluster in different locations on f44 vs f43 plot and this finding can be potentially used as a tool for source apportionment of measured particles.

Better Macadamia Crop Forecasting - Part 2

The continually expanding macadamia industry needs an accurate crop forecasting system to allow it to develop effective crop handling and marketing strategies, particularly when the industry faces recurring cycles of unsustainably high and low commodity prices. This project aims to provide the AMS with a robust, reliable predictive model of national crop volume within 10% of the actual crop by 1 April each year by factoring known seasonal, environmental, cultural, climatic, management and biological constraints, together with the existing AMS database which includes data on tree numbers, tree age, variety, location and previous season's production.

On the Maximum Cloud Zone and the ITCZ over Indian, Longitudes during the Southwest Monsoon

An investigation is presented of the daily variation of the maximum cloud zone (MCZ) and the 7W mb trough in the Northern Hemisphere over the Indian longitudes 70–90°E during April–October for 1973–77. It is found that during June–September there are two favorable locations for a MCZ over these longitudes–on a majority of days the MCZ is present in the monsoon zone north of 15°N, and often a secondary MCZ occurs in the equatorial region (0–10°N). The monsoon MCZ gets established by northward movement of the MCZ occurring over the equatorial Indian ocean in April and May. The secondary MCZ appears intermittently, and is characterized by long spells of persistence only when the monsoon MCZ is absent. In each of the seasons studied, the MCZ temporarily disappeared from the mean summer monsoon location (15–28°N) about four weeks after it was established near the beginning of July. It is reestablished by the northward movement of the secondary MCZ, which becomes active during the absence of the monsoon MCZ, in a manner strikingly similar to that observed in the spring to summer transition. A break in monsoon conditions prevails just prior to the temporary disappearance of the monsoon MCZ. Thus we conclude that the monsoon MCZ cannot survive for longer than a month without reestablishment by the secondary MCZ. Possible underlying mechanisms are also discussed.