Effect of statin therapy in the outcome of bloodstream infections due to Staphylococcus aureus: a prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION Statins have pleiotropic effects that could influence the prevention and outcome of some infectious diseases. There is no information about their specific effect on Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (SAB). METHODS A prospective cohort study including all SAB diagnosed in patients aged ≥18 years admitted to a 950-bed tertiary hospital from March 2008 to January 2011 was performed. The main outcome variable was 14-day mortality, and the secondary outcome variables were 30-day mortality, persistent bacteremia (PB) and presence of severe sepsis or septic shock at diagnosis of SAB. The effect of statin therapy at the onset of SAB was studied by multivariate logistic regression and Cox regression analysis, including a propensity score for statin therapy. RESULTS We included 160 episodes. Thirty-three patients (21.3%) were receiving statins at the onset of SAB. 14-day mortality was 21.3%. After adjustment for age, Charlson index, Pitt score, adequate management, and high risk source, statin therapy had a protective effect on 14-day mortality (adjusted OR = 0.08; 95% CI: 0.01-0.66; p = 0.02), and PB (OR = 0.89; 95% CI: 0.27-1.00; p = 0.05) although the effect was not significant on 30-day mortality (OR = 0.35; 95% CI: 0.10-1.23; p = 0.10) or presentation with severe sepsis or septic shock (adjusted OR = 0.89; CI 95%: 0.27-2.94; p = 0.8). An effect on 30-day mortality could neither be demonstrated on Cox analysis (adjusted HR = 0.5; 95% CI: 0.19-1.29; p = 0.15). CONCLUSIONS Statin treatment in patients with SAB was associated with lower early mortality and PB. Randomized studies are necessary to identify the role of statins in the treatment of patients with SAB.

Adjuvant intra-arterial hepatic fotemustine for high-risk uveal melanoma patients.

Uveal melanoma metastases occur most commonly in the liver. Given the 50% mortality rate in patients at high risk of developing liver metastases, we tested an adjuvant intra-arterial hepatic (i.a.h.) chemotherapy with fotemustine after proton beam irradiation of the primary tumour. We treated 22 high-risk patients with adjuvant i.a.h. fotemustine. Planned treatment duration was 6 months, starting with four weekly doses of 100 mg/m(2), and after a 5-week rest, repeated every 3 weeks. The survival of this patient group was compared with that of a 3 : 1 matched control group randomly selected from our institutional database. Half of the patients experienced > or =grade 3 hepatotoxicity (one patient developing cholangitis 8 years later). Catheter-related complications occurred in 18%. With a median follow-up of 4.6 years for the fotemustine group and 8.5 years for the control group, median overall survival was 9 years [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.2-12.7] and 7.4 years (95% CI 5.4-12.7; P=0.5), respectively, with 5-year survival rates of 75 and 56%. Treatment with adjuvant i.a.h. fotemustine is feasible. However, toxicities are important. Although our data suggest a survival benefit, it was not statistically significant. Confirming such a benefit would require a large, internationally coordinated, prospective randomized trial.

Epidemiology of incident heart failure in a contemporary elderly cohort: the health, aging, and body composition study.

BACKGROUND: The race- and sex-specific epidemiology of incident heart failure (HF) among a contemporary elderly cohort are not well described. METHODS: We studied 2934 participants without HF enrolled in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study (mean [SD] age, 73.6 [2.9] years; 47.9% men; 58.6% white; and 41.4% black) and assessed the incidence of HF, population-attributable risk (PAR) of independent risk factors for HF, and outcomes of incident HF. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 7.1 years, 258 participants (8.8%) developed HF (13.6 cases per 1000 person-years; 95% confidence interval, 12.1-15.4). Men and black participants were more likely to develop HF. No significant sex-based differences were observed in risk factors. Coronary heart disease (PAR, 23.9% for white participants and 29.5% for black participants) and uncontrolled blood pressure (PAR, 21.3% for white participants and 30.1% for black participants) carried the highest PAR in both races. Among black participants, 6 of 8 risk factors assessed (smoking, increased heart rate, coronary heart disease, left ventricular hypertrophy, uncontrolled blood pressure, and reduced glomerular filtration rate) had more than 5% higher PAR compared with that among white participants, leading to a higher overall proportion of HF attributable to modifiable risk factors in black participants vs white participants (67.8% vs 48.9%). Participants who developed HF had higher annual mortality (18.0% vs 2.7%). No racial difference in survival after HF was noted; however, rehospitalization rates were higher among black participants (62.1 vs 30.3 hospitalizations per 100 person-years, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Incident HF is common in older persons; a large proportion of HF risk is attributed to modifiable risk factors. Racial differences in risk factors for HF and in hospitalization rates after HF need to be considered in prevention and treatment efforts.

Rules of origin : from analysis to reform

General Introduction This thesis can be divided into two main parts :the first one, corresponding to the first three chapters, studies Rules of Origin (RoOs) in Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs); the second part -the fourth chapter- is concerned with Anti-Dumping (AD) measures. Despite wide-ranging preferential access granted to developing countries by industrial ones under North-South Trade Agreements -whether reciprocal, like the Europe Agreements (EAs) or NAFTA, or not, such as the GSP, AGOA, or EBA-, it has been claimed that the benefits from improved market access keep falling short of the full potential benefits. RoOs are largely regarded as a primary cause of the under-utilization of improved market access of PTAs. RoOs are the rules that determine the eligibility of goods to preferential treatment. Their economic justification is to prevent trade deflection, i.e. to prevent non-preferred exporters from using the tariff preferences. However, they are complex, cost raising and cumbersome, and can be manipulated by organised special interest groups. As a result, RoOs can restrain trade beyond what it is needed to prevent trade deflection and hence restrict market access in a statistically significant and quantitatively large proportion. Part l In order to further our understanding of the effects of RoOs in PTAs, the first chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot, Celine Carrère and Pr. Jaime de Melo, describes and evaluates the RoOs governing EU and US PTAs. It draws on utilization-rate data for Mexican exports to the US in 2001 and on similar data for ACP exports to the EU in 2002. The paper makes two contributions. First, we construct an R-index of restrictiveness of RoOs along the lines first proposed by Estevadeordal (2000) for NAFTA, modifying it and extending it for the EU's single-list (SL). This synthetic R-index is then used to compare Roos under NAFTA and PANEURO. The two main findings of the chapter are as follows. First, it shows, in the case of PANEURO, that the R-index is useful to summarize how countries are differently affected by the same set of RoOs because of their different export baskets to the EU. Second, it is shown that the Rindex is a relatively reliable statistic in the sense that, subject to caveats, after controlling for the extent of tariff preference at the tariff-line level, it accounts for differences in utilization rates at the tariff line level. Finally, together with utilization rates, the index can be used to estimate total compliance costs of RoOs. The second chapter proposes a reform of preferential Roos with the aim of making them more transparent and less discriminatory. Such a reform would make preferential blocs more "cross-compatible" and would therefore facilitate cumulation. It would also contribute to move regionalism toward more openness and hence to make it more compatible with the multilateral trading system. It focuses on NAFTA, one of the most restrictive FTAs (see Estevadeordal and Suominen 2006), and proposes a way forward that is close in spirit to what the EU Commission is considering for the PANEURO system. In a nutshell, the idea is to replace the current array of RoOs by a single instrument- Maximum Foreign Content (MFC). An MFC is a conceptually clear and transparent instrument, like a tariff. Therefore changing all instruments into an MFC would bring improved transparency pretty much like the "tariffication" of NTBs. The methodology for this exercise is as follows: In step 1, I estimate the relationship between utilization rates, tariff preferences and RoOs. In step 2, I retrieve the estimates and invert the relationship to get a simulated MFC that gives, line by line, the same utilization rate as the old array of Roos. In step 3, I calculate the trade-weighted average of the simulated MFC across all lines to get an overall equivalent of the current system and explore the possibility of setting this unique instrument at a uniform rate across lines. This would have two advantages. First, like a uniform tariff, a uniform MFC would make it difficult for lobbies to manipulate the instrument at the margin. This argument is standard in the political-economy literature and has been used time and again in support of reductions in the variance of tariffs (together with standard welfare considerations). Second, uniformity across lines is the only way to eliminate the indirect source of discrimination alluded to earlier. Only if two countries face uniform RoOs and tariff preference will they face uniform incentives irrespective of their initial export structure. The result of this exercise is striking: the average simulated MFC is 25% of good value, a very low (i.e. restrictive) level, confirming Estevadeordal and Suominen's critical assessment of NAFTA's RoOs. Adopting a uniform MFC would imply a relaxation from the benchmark level for sectors like chemicals or textiles & apparel, and a stiffening for wood products, papers and base metals. Overall, however, the changes are not drastic, suggesting perhaps only moderate resistance to change from special interests. The third chapter of the thesis considers whether Europe Agreements of the EU, with the current sets of RoOs, could be the potential model for future EU-centered PTAs. First, I have studied and coded at the six-digit level of the Harmonised System (HS) .both the old RoOs -used before 1997- and the "Single list" Roos -used since 1997. Second, using a Constant Elasticity Transformation function where CEEC exporters smoothly mix sales between the EU and the rest of the world by comparing producer prices on each market, I have estimated the trade effects of the EU RoOs. The estimates suggest that much of the market access conferred by the EAs -outside sensitive sectors- was undone by the cost-raising effects of RoOs. The chapter also contains an analysis of the evolution of the CEECs' trade with the EU from post-communism to accession. Part II The last chapter of the thesis is concerned with anti-dumping, another trade-policy instrument having the effect of reducing market access. In 1995, the Uruguay Round introduced in the Anti-Dumping Agreement (ADA) a mandatory "sunset-review" clause (Article 11.3 ADA) under which anti-dumping measures should be reviewed no later than five years from their imposition and terminated unless there was a serious risk of resumption of injurious dumping. The last chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot and Pr. Jaime de Melo, uses a new database on Anti-Dumping (AD) measures worldwide to assess whether the sunset-review agreement had any effect. The question we address is whether the WTO Agreement succeeded in imposing the discipline of a five-year cycle on AD measures and, ultimately, in curbing their length. Two methods are used; count data analysis and survival analysis. First, using Poisson and Negative Binomial regressions, the count of AD measures' revocations is regressed on (inter alia) the count of "initiations" lagged five years. The analysis yields a coefficient on measures' initiations lagged five years that is larger and more precisely estimated after the agreement than before, suggesting some effect. However the coefficient estimate is nowhere near the value that would give a one-for-one relationship between initiations and revocations after five years. We also find that (i) if the agreement affected EU AD practices, the effect went the wrong way, the five-year cycle being quantitatively weaker after the agreement than before; (ii) the agreement had no visible effect on the United States except for aone-time peak in 2000, suggesting a mopping-up of old cases. Second, the survival analysis of AD measures around the world suggests a shortening of their expected lifetime after the agreement, and this shortening effect (a downward shift in the survival function postagreement) was larger and more significant for measures targeted at WTO members than for those targeted at non-members (for which WTO disciplines do not bind), suggesting that compliance was de jure. A difference-in-differences Cox regression confirms this diagnosis: controlling for the countries imposing the measures, for the investigated countries and for the products' sector, we find a larger increase in the hazard rate of AD measures covered by the Agreement than for other measures.

Demographic effects of extreme winter weather in the barn owl.

Extreme weather events can lead to immediate catastrophic mortality. Due to their rare occurrence, however, the long-term impacts of such events for ecological processes are unclear. We examined the effect of extreme winters on barn owl (Tyto alba) survival and reproduction in Switzerland over a 68-year period (approximately 20 generations). This long-term data set allowed us to compare events that occurred only once in several decades to more frequent events. Winter harshness explained 17 and 49% of the variance in juvenile and adult survival, respectively, and the two harshest winters were associated with major population crashes caused by simultaneous low juvenile and adult survival. These two winters increased the correlation between juvenile and adult survival from 0.63 to 0.69. Overall, survival decreased non-linearly with increasing winter harshness in adults, and linearly in juveniles. In contrast, brood size was not related to the harshness of the preceding winter. Our results thus reveal complex interactions between climate and demography. The relationship between weather and survival observed during regular years is likely to underestimate the importance of climate variation for population dynamics.

Survival after lung metastasectomy in colorectal cancer patients with previously resected liver metastases.

BACKGROUND: Resection of hepatic metastases is indicated in selected stage IV colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. A minority will eventually develop pulmonary metastases and may undergo lung surgery with curative intent. The aims of the present study were to assess clinical outcome and identify parameters predicting survival after pulmonary metastasectomy in patients who underwent prior resection of hepatic CRC metastases.¦METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of 27 consecutive patients (median age 62 years; range: 33-75 years) who underwent resection of pulmonary metastases after previous hepatic metastasectomy from CRC in two institutions from 1996 to 2009. All patients underwent complete resection (R0) for both colorectal and hepatic metastases.¦RESULTS: Median follow-up was 32 months (range: 3-69 months) after resection of lung metastases and 65 months (range: 19-146 months) after resection of primary CRC. Three- and 5-year overall survival rates after lung surgery were 56 and 39%, respectively, and median survival was 46 months (95% CI 35-57). Median disease-free survival after pulmonary metastasectomy was 13 months (95% CI 5-21). At the time of last follow-up, seven patients (26%) had no evidence of recurrent disease and 6 of these 7 patients presented initially with a single lung metastasis.¦CONCLUSIONS: Resection of lung metastases from CRC patients may result in prolonged survival, even after previous hepatic metastasectomy. Yet, prolonged disease-free survival remains the exception, and seems to occur only in patients with a single lung lesion.

Predicting the evolution of Kaposi sarcoma, in the highly active antiretroviral therapy era.

BACKGROUND: The outcome of Kaposi sarcoma varies. While many patients do well on highly active antiretroviral therapy, others have progressive disease and need chemotherapy. In order to predict which patients are at risk of unfavorable evolution, we established a prognostic score. METHOD: The survival analysis (Kaplan-Meier method; Cox proportional hazards models) of 144 patients with Kaposi sarcoma prospectively included in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, from January 1996 to December 2004, was conducted. OUTCOME ANALYZED: use of chemotherapy or death. VARIABLES ANALYZED: demographics, tumor staging [T0 or T1 (16)], CD4 cell counts and HIV-1 RNA concentration, human herpesvirus 8 (HHV8) DNA in plasma and serological titers to latent and lytic antigens. RESULTS: Of 144 patients, 54 needed chemotherapy or died. In the univariate analysis, tumor stage T1, CD4 cell count below 200 cells/microl, positive HHV8 DNA and absence of antibodies against the HHV8 lytic antigen at the time of diagnosis were significantly associated with a bad outcome.Using multivariate analysis, the following variables were associated with an increased risk of unfavorable outcome: T1 [hazard ratio (HR) 5.22; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.97-9.18], CD4 cell count below 200 cells/microl (HR 2.33; 95% CI 1.22-4.45) and positive HHV8 DNA (HR 2.14; 95% CI 1.79-2.85).We created a score with these variables ranging from 0 to 4: T1 stage counted for two points, CD4 cell count below 200 cells/microl for one point, and positive HHV8 viral load for one point. Each point increase was associated with a HR of 2.26 (95% CI 1.79-2.85). CONCLUSION: In the multivariate analysis, staging (T1), CD4 cell count (<200 cells/microl), positive HHV8 DNA in plasma, at the time of diagnosis, predict evolution towards death or the need of chemotherapy.

The timing of foreign direct investment under uncertainty: Evidence from the Spanish banking sector

This paper investigates the timing of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the banking sector. The importance of this issue would arise from the existence of differential benefits associated to be the first entrant in a foreign location. Nevertheless, when uncertainty is considered, the existence of some Ownership-Location-Internalization (OLI) advantages can make FDI less reversible and/or more delayable and therefore it may be optimal for the firm to delay the investment until the uncertainty is resolved. In this paper, the nature of OLI advantages in the banking sector has been examined in order to propose a prognostic model of the timing of foreign direct investment. The model is then tested for the Spanish case using duration analysis.

Use of recombinant tissue plasminogen activator in children with meningococcal purpura fulminans: a retrospective study.

OBJECTIVE: Meningococcal disease causes septic shock with associated disseminated intravascular coagulation and hemorrhagic skin necrosis. In severe cases, widespread vascular thrombosis leads to gangrene of limbs and digits and contributes to morbidity and mortality. Uncontrolled case reports have suggested that thrombolytic therapy may prevent some complications, and the use of tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA) has been widespread. Our aim was to summarize the clinical outcome and adverse effects where systemic t-PA has been used to treat children with fulminant meningococcemia. DESIGN: International, multiple-center, retrospective, observational case note study between January 1992 and June 2000. SETTING: Twenty-four different hospitals in seven European countries and Australia. PATIENTS: A total of 62 consecutive infants and children with severe meningococcal sepsis in whom t-PA was used for the treatment of predicted amputations and/or refractory shock (40 to treat severe ischemia, 12 to treat shock, and ten to treat both). INTERVENTIONS: t-PA was administered with a median dose of 0.3 mg.kg(-1).hr(-1) (range, 0.008-1.13) and a median duration of 9 hrs (range, 1.2-83). MAIN RESULTS: Twenty-nine of 62 patients died (47%; 95% confidence interval, 28-65). Seventeen of 33 survivors had amputations (11 below knee/elbow or greater loss; six less severe). In 12 of 50 patients to whom t-PA was given for imminent amputation, no amputations were observed. Five developed intracerebral hemorrhages (five of 62, 8%; 95% confidence interval, 0.5-16). Of these five, three died, one developed a persistent hemiparesis, and one recovered completely. CONCLUSIONS: The high incidence of intracerebral hemorrhage in our study raises concerns about the safety of t-PA in children with fulminant meningococcemia. However, due to the absence of a control group in such a severe subset of patients, whether t-PA is beneficial or harmful cannot be answered from the unrestricted use of the drug that is described in this report. Our experience highlights the need to avoid strategies that use experimental drugs in an uncontrolled fashion and to participate in multiple-center trials, which are inevitably required to study rare diseases.

An analysis of inflation rates in the European Union using wavelets : strong evidence against unit roots

In this paper we assume inflation rates in European Union countries may in fact be fractionally integrated. Given this assumption, we obtain estimations of the order of integration by means a method based on wavelets coefficients. Finally, results obtained allow reject the unit root hypothesis on inflation rates. It means that a random shock on the rate of inflation in these countries has transitory effects that gradually diminish with the passage of time, that this, said shock hasn¿t a permanent effect on future values of inflation rates

Quality of care and survival of haemodialysed patients in western Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Many factors affect survival in haemodialysis (HD) patients. Our aim was to study whether quality of clinical care may affect survival in this population, when adjusted for demographic characteristics and co-morbidities. METHODS: We studied survival in 553 patients treated by chronic HD during March 2001 in 21 dialysis facilities in western Switzerland. Indicators of quality of care were established for anaemia control, calcium and phosphate product, serum albumin, pre-dialysis blood pressure (BP), type of vascular access and dialysis adequacy (spKt/V) and their baseline values were related to 3-year survival. The modified Charlson co-morbidity index (including age) and transplantation status were also considered as a predictor of survival. RESULTS: Three-year survival was obtained for 96% of the patients; 39% (211/541) of these patients had died. The 3-year survival was 50, 62 and 69%, respectively, in patients who had 0-2, 3 and >or=4 fulfilled indicators of quality of care (test for linear trend, P < 0.001). In a Cox multivariate analysis model, the absence of transplantation, a higher modified Charlson's score, decreased fulfilment of indicators of good clinical care and low pre-dialysis systolic BP were independent predictors of death. CONCLUSION: Good clinical care improves survival in HD patients, even after adjustment for availability of transplantation and co-morbidities.

Survival and health in liveborn infants with transposition of great arteries--a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe treatment, survival, and morbidity for liveborn infants with isolated transposition of great arteries (TGA). DESIGN: Population-based data from 7 European registries of congenital malformations (EUROCAT). RESULTS: Ninety-seven infants were diagnosed with isolated TGA and livebirth prevalence was 2.0 per 10,000 livebirths. The majority of infants were treated with prostaglandins (83%) and 57% had a catheter atrial septostomia performed. Arterial switch surgery was performed in 78 infants, other or unknown type of surgery was performed in 3 cases, and for 6 infants there was no information on surgery. At 1 year of age 69 infants were alive (71%) and 24 (25%) were dead (4 unknown). There were 10 deaths before surgery and 58% of all deaths took place during the first week. There was no statistically significant regional difference in mortality. Eight infants diagnosed prenatally all survived to 1 year and only 71% of infants diagnosed after birth survived (P = 0.08). Data on morbidity at 1 year of age was available for 57 infants. Fifty-one infants were reported with normal health and development. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based study survival for liveborn infants with TGA is lower than in studies published from tertiary centers. Outcome for survivors at 1 year of age seems favorable.

An analysis of inflation rates in the European Union using wavelets : strong evidence against unit roots

In this paper we assume inflation rates in European Union countries may in fact be fractionally integrated. Given this assumption, we obtain estimations of the order of integration by means a method based on wavelets coefficients. Finally, results obtained allow reject the unit root hypothesis on inflation rates. It means that a random shock on the rate of inflation in these countries has transitory effects that gradually diminish with the passage of time, that this, said shock hasn¿t a permanent effect on future values of inflation rates

Association of pharmacogenetic markers with premature discontinuation of first-line anti-HIV therapy: an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Poor tolerance and adverse drug reactions are main reasons for discontinuation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Identifying predictors of ART discontinuation is a priority in HIV care. METHODS: A genetic association study in an observational cohort to evaluate the association of pharmacogenetic markers with time to treatment discontinuation during the first year of ART. Analysis included 577 treatment-naive individuals initiating tenofovir (n = 500) or abacavir (n = 77), with efavirenz (n = 272), lopinavir/ritonavir (n = 184), or atazanavir/ritonavir (n = 121). Genotyping included 23 genetic markers in 15 genes associated with toxicity or pharmacokinetics of the study medication. Rates of ART discontinuation between groups with and without genetic risk markers were assessed by survival analysis using Cox regression models. RESULTS: During the first year of ART, 190 individuals (33%) stopped 1 or more drugs. For efavirenz and atazanavir, individuals with genetic risk markers experienced higher discontinuation rates than individuals without (71.15% vs 28.10%, and 62.5% vs 14.6%, respectively). The efavirenz discontinuation hazard ratio (HR) was 3.14 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.35-7.33, P = .008). The atazanavir discontinuation HR was 9.13 (95% CI: 3.38-24.69, P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: Several pharmacogenetic markers identify individuals at risk for early treatment discontinuation. These markers should be considered for validation in the clinical setting.

Cost-effectiveness of temozolomide for the treatment of newly diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme.

AIM: To perform a systematic review on the costs and cost-effectiveness of concomitant and adjuvant temozolomide with radiotherapy for the treatment of newly diagnosed glioblastoma compared with initial radiotherapy alone. METHODS: Electronic databases were searched for relevant publications on costs and cost-effectiveness until October 2008. RESULTS: We found four relevant clinical trials, one cost study and two economic models. The mean survival benefit in the radiotherapy plus temozolomide group varied between 0.21 and 0.25 life-years. Treatment costs were between 27,365 euros and 39,092 euros. The costs of temozolomide amounted to approximately 40% of the total treatment costs. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios found in the literature were 37,361 euros per life-year gained and 42,912 euros per quality-adjusted life-year gained. However, the models are not comparable because different outcomes are used (i.e., life-years and quality-adjusted life-years). CONCLUSION: Although the models are not comparable according to outcome, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios found are within acceptable ranges. We concluded that despite the high temozolomide acquisition costs, the costs per life-year gained and the costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained are comparable with other accepted first-line treatments with chemotherapy in patients with cancer.