How to deal with macroeconomic imbalances? CEPS Special Report No. 69, 23 November 2012

Lax financial conditions can foster credit booms. The global credit boom of the last decade led to large capital flows across the world, including large movements of resources from the northern countries of the euro area towards the southern part. Since the start of the crisis and more markedly after 2009, these flows have suddenly stopped, creating severe adjustment pressure. At this point the common monetary policy can only try to mitigate the unavoidable adjustment by maintaining overall financial stability. The challenge is to strike a delicate balance between providing liquidity for solvent institutions while keeping the overall pressure on for a rapid correction of the imbalances.

Ensemble-based data assimilation and the localisation problem

The “butterfly effect” is a popularly known paradigm; commonly it is said that when a butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil, it may cause a tornado in Texas. This essentially describes how weather forecasts can be extremely senstive to small changes in the given atmospheric data, or initial conditions, used in computer model simulations. In 1961 Edward Lorenz found, when running a weather model, that small changes in the initial conditions given to the model can, over time, lead to entriely different forecasts (Lorenz, 1963). This discovery highlights one of the major challenges in modern weather forecasting; that is to provide the computer model with the most accurately specified initial conditions possible. A process known as data assimilation seeks to minimize the errors in the given initial conditions and was, in 1911, described by Bjerkness as “the ultimate problem in meteorology” (Bjerkness, 1911).

Modelagem de distorções entre sad 69 e sirgas 2000 pelo método de shepard e grades regulares

Brazil follows the tendency of some countries to update and/or review their fundamental geodetic network. The adoption of geocentric referentials like SIRGAS 2000, the new official reference system of the Geodetic Brazilian System has been an advance. Changes in referential implies in coordinates changes on the network stations as well as the network geometry. To make use of analogical and digital products which are already known in the old referentials are necessary approaches to the coordinate conversion, which minimize the distortions between the used reference frames. This paper presents a distortion modeling approach between reference frames, based on distortion grid generation by using the Shepard's method. To analyze the approach some experiments were performed with the generation of a 1 degrees x1 degrees distortion grid to model the distortions between SAD 69 (1996) and SIRGAS (2000) frames. The results in the test stations were promising, with an average reduction of 50% in the RMS coordinates after the distortions modeling.

Valores normativos e aptidão funcional em homens de 60 a 69 anos de idade

O objetivo deste estudo foi desenvolver valores normativos para a aptidão funcional e o índice de aptidão funcional geral (IAFG) para homens de 60 a 69 anos. Foram avaliados 112 idosos residentes em Florianópolis/SC ou Rio Claro/SP, por meio da bateria de testes da AAHPERD, que realizavam atividade física sistematizada, supervisionada e regularmente, há pelo menos 6 meses. A bateria é composta por cinco testes que avaliam a flexibilidade, coordenação, agilidade/equilíbrio dinâmico, força e capacidade aeróbia. Para a análise dos dados e construção dos valores normativos das aptidões funcionais e do IAFG, utilizou-se o cálculo de percentis. Foram utilizados como pontos de corte os percentis 20, 40, 60 e 80 para gerar as classificações: muito fraco, fraco, regular, bom e muito bom, respectivamente. O desenvolvimento de valores normativos pode servir como referência aos profissionais, para que possam melhor avaliar, orientar e prescrever atividade física para homens idosos.