Pro-American non-alignment. Sweden and Finland develop closer military co-operation with the United States. OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER 205/31.03.2016

Russia’s increasingly aggressive policy and its enhanced military activity in the Nordic-Baltic region has led to revaluations in Sweden’s and Finland’s security and defence policies and a rethinking of the formats of their military co-operation. While remaining outside NATO, the two states have been developing closer bilateral defence co-operation and working more closely with the United States, while at the same time developing co-operation with NATO. Sweden and Finland perceive the United States as the guarantor of regional and European security. From their point of view, the United States is currently the country that has both the necessary military capabilities and the political will to react in the event of a conflict between Russia and NATO in the Nordic-Baltic region, in which both countries would inevitably become involved despite their non-aligned status. For Sweden and Finland, intensified co-operation with the United States offers an alternative to NATO membership, which is currently out of the question for domestic political reasons. Meanwhile, the US has also become increasingly aware of the strategic importance of the two states, which, for the purposes of contingency planning, are in fact an extension of NATO’s north-eastern flank.

Particel size distribution and microstructures of sediments from ODP Leg 205 sites (Table 1)

Ocean Drilling Program Legs 170 and 205 offshore Costa Rica provide structural observations which support a new model for the geometry and deformation response to the seismic cycle of the frontal sedimentary prism and decollement. The model is based on drillcore, thin section, and electron microscope observations. The decollement damage zone is a few tens of meters in width, it develops mainly within the frontal prism. A clear cm-thick fault core is observed 1.6 km from the trench. The lower boundary of the fault core is coincident with the lithological boundary between the frontal prism and the hemipelagic and pelagic sediment of the Cocos plate. Breccia clast distributions in the upper portion of the decollement damage zone were studied through fractal analysis. This analysis shows that the fractal dimension changes with brecciated fragment size, implying that deformation was not accommodated by self-similar fracturing. A higher fractal dimensionality correlates with smaller particle size, which indicates that different or additional grain-size reduction processes operated during shearing. The co-existence of two distinct fracturing processes is also confirmed by microscopic analysis in which extension fracturing in the upper part of the damage zone farthest from the fault core is frequent, while both extension and shear fracturing occur approaching the fault core. The coexistence of extensional and shear fracturing seems to be best explained by fluid pressure variations in response to variations of the compressional regime during the seismic cycle. During the co-seismic event, sub-horizontal compression and fluid pressure increase, triggering shear fracturing and fluid expulsion. Fractures migrate upward with fluids, contributing to the asymmetric shape of the decollement, while slip propagates. In the inter-seismic interval the frontal prismrelaxes and fluid pressure drops. The frontal prismgoes into diffuse extension during the intervalwhen plate convergence is accommodated by creep along the ductile fault core. The fault core is typically a barrier to deformation, which is explained by its weak, but impermeable, nature. The localized development of a damage zone beneath the fault core is characterized by shear fracturing that appears as the result of local strengthening of the detachment.