Forecasters priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts.

Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

Ionospheric Signatures of Pulsed Magnetopause Reconnection

The concept of zero-flow equilibria of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system leads to a large number of predictions concerning the ionospheric signatures of pulsed magnetopause reconnection. These include: poleward-moving F-region electron temperature enhancements and associated transient 630nm emission; associated poleward plasma flow which, compared to the pulsed variation of the reconnection rate, is highly smoothed by induction effects; oscillatory latitudinal motion of the open/closed field line boundary; phase lag of plasma flow enhancements after equatorward motions of the boundary; azimuthal plasma flow bursts, coincident in time and space with the 630nm-dominant auroral transients, only when the magnitude of the By component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is large; azimuthal-then-poleward motion of 630nm-dominant transients at a velocity which at all times equals the internal plasma flow velocity; 557.7nm-dominant transients on one edge of the 630nm-dominant transient (initially, and for large |By|, on the poleward or equatorward edge depending on the polarity of IMF By); tailward expansion of the flow response at several km s-1; and discrete steps in the cusp ion dispersion signature between the polewardmoving structures. This paper discusses these predictions and how all have recently been confirmed by combinations of observations by optical instruments on the Svalbard Islands, the EISCAT radars and the DMSP and DE satellites.

Contribution of SHRIMP U-Pb zircon geochronology to unravelling the evolution of Brazilian Neoproterozoic fold belts

The South-American continent is constituted of three major geologic-geotectonic entities the homonym platform (consolidated at the end of the Cambrian) the Andean chain (essentially Meso-Cenozoic) and the Patagonian terrains affected by tectonism and magmatism through almost all of the Phanerozoic The platform is constituted by a series of cratonic nuclei (pre-Tonian fragments of the Rodinia fission) surrounded by a complex fabric of Neoproterozoic structural provinces Two major groups of orogenic processes (plate interaction cycles) constitute the evolution of these provinces the older occurred in the Tonian (smaller in area) and the younger Brasiliano that is present in all provinces The Tonian cycles (pre-Rodinia fission?) are still being sorted out and many questions still need to be answered The Brasiliano orogenic collage events (post-Rodinia fission?) developed in three main stages in part coeval from a province to another and are 650-600 580-560 and 540-500 Ma respectively (the late event reaching the Ordovician) The first group of orogenies is recorded in practically all provinces The third group is restricted to part of the Mantiqueira Province (southeast of the platform Buzios Orogeny) and present in the Pampean province (SW of the platform) For all these groups of orogenic events there are considerable records of rock assemblages related to processes of convergent plate interaction opening accretion collision and further extrusion There is a good correlation between the geologic and geotectonic data and geochemical and isotopic data The late tectonic processes (post-orogenic magmatism foreland basins etc) of the first two groups compete in time in distinct spaces with the peak of orogenic processes in the third group The introduction of the SHRIMP U-Pb methodology was fundamental to separate the Tonian and post-Tonian orogenic groups and their respective divisions in time and space Thus there are still many open points/problems which lead to expectations of addressing these issues in the near future with the more Intense use of this methodology (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Participação Infantil: experiência de pesquisa realizada em organização social na Zona Oeste do Rio de Janeiro

Este trabalho se propõe a ser um fio na teia de reflexões que tecem o debate sobre a participação infantil a partir do ponto de vista das crianças em co-operação com adultos. Sua trama se compõe de campos distintos e autônomos - infância, direito social e participação -, que se cruzam e inter-relacionam, investigados no âmbito de uma experiência realizada na organização social Fundação Xuxa Meneghel, que tem como eixo central de suas ações a promoção e a proteção de crianças e adolescentes que vivem em situação de vulnerabilidade social na Zona Oeste do município do Rio de Janeiro. Trata-se de uma micro-experiência, que pretende compreender o ser criança em relação aos seus direitos humanos e sociais, observando sua influência nas práticas sociais presentes na nossa cultura. O direito à participação infantil - entendida como ferramenta para a auto-proteção e a promoção das crianças como sujeitos plenos exercitando a cidadania - se materializou numa investigação em que as concepções metodológicas convencionais foram se re-construindo por meio das vozes infantis em diálogo com seus pares e com os adultos. As crianças apresentaram seus pontos de vista e as significações que atribuem ao seu entorno e a suas possibilidades e limites de participar de forma genuína nas suas principais instâncias de socialização: família, escola e comunidade. A experiência se constitui numa provocação do olhar para as identidades e as culturas das crianças que dela participaram, para suas vivências expressas por representações de ações e emoções contextualizadas no tempo e no espaço, numa tentativa de compor com elas - e ampliando para todas as crianças da instituição - uma compreensão do que significa o direito de participar, ensinado e apreendido em perspectiva social e cultural.

Corpo e aprendizagem em Boris Cyrulnik e em Merleau-Ponty

This research seeks to identify views of the body and learning the authors Boris Cyrulnik and Merleau - Ponty, thus tracing reflective for the educational field in several areas, with emphasis on physical education paths . We notice that the above authors present a wide collection of books, needing to develop this theoretical construct a limitation in their works. Therefore , on the theme of the body , were used mainly books The Sixth Sense , Boris Cyrulnik and Phenomenology of Perception , Merleau- Ponty , as both present in their organizational context a specific chapter on this subject . The phenomenological approach is included as path to be taken to devise this study because it is based on daily reflections that the human being perceives through his experiences with his peers and mainstream culture. The phenomenological reduction was carried out from the readings and interpretations of texts, writers and commentators, as well as approaching with life aspects of experience as a police officer and professor of ethics. The interpretation points to the understanding of body and learning that can be propagated within the Physical Education and as a way to understand and learn the constructs lived through sensitivity. The design of the body, feelings and affections of Boris Cyrulnik firm the empathetic bonds between human beings, bringing confidence to explore the world, learning through the new link with the other. This notion is close to the notion of expressive body Merleau Ponty, who holds intentions in their gestures (movements), entwining in time and space. Boris Cyrulnik and Merleau-Ponty expressed as the human being is enigmatic, lying embedded in a social and cultural world, so the experiences to traçarem existential trajetória and learning need in order to enaltercer freedom of expression as a mechanism that can be deployed in the appropriation of concepts and the criticality of the subject facing widespread theories (biological, social, anthropological , etc.) . From the reflections of the research is that recomneda Physical Education , as epistemological working area apprenticeships stemmed body movements should enable reflection on their practice, other do be done, but enabling the creation of different senses and meanings each body attitude

Distribuição ambiental e temporal das comunidades de macroalgas de riachos da Serra da Prata, Estado do Paraná, Sul do Brasil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Os espaços poéticos de um cronista contador

This study discusses chronicler Rubem Braga and his chronicles published in O Estado de São Paulo newspaper (supplement Caderno 2), from 1988 to 1990. The analysis of the 84 chronicles focuses on the study of poetic spaces, mainly based on Gaston Bachelard s book The Poetics of Space. Narrator s characteristics are also shown in the analyzed chronicles, as he resembles a traditional storyteller, even though participates in a genre that belongs to a modern vehicle: the newspaper. The storyteller-chronicler moves in time and space, reporting his experiences to the readers, and also travels inside of himself, discovering places which were kept in his memory

Expansao das lavouras de soja e trigo no Estado de São Paulo

Shows the viability of using the Trend Surface Analysis (TSA) in studies of the distribution of items of geographical interest in time and space; tests comparatively the techniques of cartographic representation conventionally used in TSA. It follows that the TSA offers more resources for analyses of the spatial items behaviour than the techniques commonly employed for the same purpose.- English summary

Épocas de consórcio de alho com beterraba perante três manejos do mato sobre a produtividade e o lucro

The research was carried out with intercropped cultivation of garlic and beet, in Caçador, SC, Brazil. Four seeding epochs for beet (0, 15, 30 and 45 days after garlic planting) and three management systems for weeds (with herbicides, without control and with frequent weeding) were tested. It was hoped to determine the effects of this intercropping, in time and space, seeking the benefits in .weed control, efficient land use, productivity, commercial quality, and profitability. The randomized block design was in split-plots. The epochs represented the plots, and the management, the subplots, with four replicates. Napromide at 750 g/ha did not cause symptoms of intoxication in the garlic plants, nor in the beet. All the treatments in epochs at the initiation of intercropping, in three management systems for weeds, presented efficient land use values greater than 1. The profitability of the intercropping of garlic and beet only became evident in the management involving frequent weeding; in all epochs, profits were greater than for the respective epochs of monoculture of beet and monoculture of garlic.

Representação do corpo masculino: relações de imagem, identidade e cultura sobre o corpo masculino no jornal Lampião da Esquina e na revista Junior

Pós-graduação em Comunicação - FAAC

A educação infantil no contexto da creche: um estudo sobre a educação, o cuidado da criança de zero a três anos e a formação de professores no município de Marília,SP

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A viagem de um leitor: uma investigação semiótica sobre o processo de leitura

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Caracterização da erosão hídrica laminar do solo em bacia hidrográfica com base na malha fundiária, por meio de sensoriamento remoto, geoprocessamento e modelagem

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Condomínios residenciais: segregação, auto-segregação imposta no município de Rio Claro (SP)

Pós-graduação em Geografia - IGCE

Estrutura de variabilidade espacial e temporal da emissão de CO2 e atributos do solo caracterizada por dimensão fractal em área de cana-de-açúcar

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)