Quantifying uncertainty in the simulation of crop-climate processes

The impacts of climate change on crop productivity are often assessed using simulations from a numerical climate model as an input to a crop simulation model. The precision of these predictions reflects the uncertainty in both models. We examined how uncertainty in a climate (HadAM3) and crop General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops model affects the mean and standard deviation of crop yield simulations in present and doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) climates by perturbation of parameters in each model. The climate sensitivity parameter (λ, the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to doubled CO2) was used to define the control climate. Observed 1966–1989 mean yields of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) in India were simulated well by the crop model using the control climate and climates with values of λ near the control value. The simulations were used to measure the contribution to uncertainty of key crop and climate model parameters. The standard deviation of yield was more affected by perturbation of climate parameters than crop model parameters in both the present-day and doubled CO2 climates. Climate uncertainty was higher in the doubled CO2 climate than in the present-day climate. Crop transpiration efficiency was key to crop model uncertainty in both present-day and doubled CO2 climates. The response of crop development to mean temperature contributed little uncertainty in the present-day simulations but was among the largest contributors under doubled CO2. The ensemble methods used here to quantify physical and biological uncertainty offer a method to improve model estimates of the impacts of climate change.

Quantification of physical and biological uncertainty in the simulation of the yield of a tropical crop using present-day and doubled CO2 climates

The impacts of climate change on crop productivity are often assessed using simulations from a numerical climate model as an input to a crop simulation model. The precision of these predictions reflects the uncertainty in both models. We examined how uncertainty in a climate (HadAM3) and crop General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops model affects the mean and standard deviation of crop yield simulations in present and doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) climates by perturbation of parameters in each model. The climate sensitivity parameter (lambda, the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to doubled CO2) was used to define the control climate. Observed 1966-1989 mean yields of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) in India were simulated well by the crop model using the control climate and climates with values of lambda near the control value. The simulations were used to measure the contribution to uncertainty of key crop and climate model parameters. The standard deviation of yield was more affected by perturbation of climate parameters than crop model parameters in both the present-day and doubled CO2 climates. Climate uncertainty was higher in the doubled CO2 climate than in the present-day climate. Crop transpiration efficiency was key to crop model uncertainty in both present-day and doubled CO2 climates. The response of crop development to mean temperature contributed little uncertainty in the present-day simulations but was among the largest contributors under doubled CO2. The ensemble methods used here to quantify physical and biological uncertainty offer a method to improve model estimates of the impacts of climate change.

Microwave activation of the electro-oxidation of glucose in alkaline media

The oxidation of glucose is a complex process usually requiring catalytically active electrode surfaces or enzyme modified electrodes. In this study the effect of high intensity microwave radiation on the oxidation of glucose in alkaline solution at Au, Cu, and Ni electrodes is reported. Calibration experiments with the Fe(CN)(6)(3-/4-) redox system in aqueous 0.1 M NaOH indicate that strong thermal effects occur at both 50 and 500 mu m diameter electrodes with temperatures reaching 380 K. Extreme mass transport effects with mass transport coefficients of k(mt) > 0.01 m s(-1) (or k(mt) > 1.0 cm s(-1)) are observed at 50 mu m diameter electrodes in the presence of microwaves. The electrocatalytic oxidation of glucose at 500 mu m diameter Au, Cu, or Ni electrodes immersed in 0.1 M NaOH and in the presence of microwave radiation is shown to be dominated by kinetic control. The magnitude of glucose oxidation currents at Cu electrodes is shown to depend on the thickness of a pre-formed oxide layer. At 50 mu m diameter Au, Cu, or Ni electrodes microwave enhanced current densities are generally higher, but only at Au electrodes is a significantly increased rate for the electrocatalytic oxidation of glucose to gluconolactone observed. This rate enhancement appears to be independent of temperature but microwave intensity dependent, and therefore non-thermal in nature. Voltammetric currents observed at Ni electrodes in the presence of microwaves show the best correlation with glucose concentration and are therefore analytically most useful.

Productivity change in Polish agriculture: an illustration of a bootstrapping procedure applied to Malmquist indices

This article illustrates the usefulness of applying bootstrap procedures to total factor productivity Malmquist indices, derived with data envelopment analysis (DEA), for a sample of 250 Polish farms during 1996-2000. The confidence intervals constructed as in Simar and Wilson suggest that the common portrayal of productivity decline in Polish agriculture may be misleading. However, a cluster analysis based on bootstrap confidence intervals reveals that important policy conclusions can be drawn regarding productivity enhancement.

Anthraquinone catalysis in the glucose-driven reduction of indigo to leuco-indigo

Anthraquinone immobilised onto the surface of indigo microcrystals enhances the reductive dissolution of indigo to leuco-indigo. Indigo reduction is driven by glucose in aqueous NaOH and a vibrating gold disc electrode is employed to monitor the increasing leuco-indigo concentration with time. Anthraquinone introduces a strong catalytic effect which is explained by invoking a molecular "wedge effect'' during co-intercalation of Na+ and anthraquinone into the layered indigo crystal structure. The glucose-driven indigo reduction, which is in effective in 0.1 M NaOH at 65 degrees C, becomes facile and goes to completion in the presence of anthraquinone catalyst. Electron microscopy of indigo crystals before and after reductive dissolution confirms a delamination mechanism initiated at the edges of the plate-like indigo crystals. Catalysis occurs when the anthraquinone-indigo mixture reaches a molar ratio of 1:400 (at 65 degrees C; corresponding to 3 mu M anthraquinone) with excess of anthraquinone having virtually no effect. A strong temperature effect ( with a composite E-A approximate to 120 kJ mol(-1)) is observed for the reductive dissolution in the presence of anthraquinone. The molar ratio and temperature effects are both consistent with the heterogeneous nature of the anthraquinone catalysis in the aqueous reaction mixture.

Microwave activation of the electro-oxidation of glucose in alkaline media

The oxidation of glucose is a complex process usually requiring catalytically active electrode surfaces or enzyme-modified electrodes. In this study the effect of high intensity microwave radiation on the oxidation of glucose in alkaline solution at Au, Cu, and Ni electrodes is reported. Calibration experiments with the Fe(CN)63–/4– redox system in aqueous 0.1 M NaOH indicate that strong thermal effects occur at both 50 and 500 µm diameter electrodes with temperatures reaching 380 K. Extreme mass transport effects with mass transport coefficients of kmt > 0.01 m s–1(or kmt > 1.0 cm s–1) are observed at 50 µm diameter electrodes in the presence of microwaves. The electrocatalytic oxidation of glucose at 500 µm diameter Au, Cu, or Ni electrodes immersed in 0.1 M NaOH and in the presence of microwave radiation is shown to be dominated by kinetic control. The magnitude of glucose oxidation currents at Cu electrodes is shown to depend on the thickness of a pre-formed oxide layer. At 50 µm diameter Au, Cu, or Ni electrodes microwave enhanced current densities are generally higher, but only at Au electrodes is a significantly increased rate for the electrocatalytic oxidation of glucose to gluconolactone observed. This rate enhancement appears to be independent of temperature but microwave intensity dependent, and therefore non-thermal in nature. Voltammetric currents observed at Ni electrodes in the presence of microwaves show the best correlation with glucose concentration and are therefore analytically most useful.

A mechanistic study of cyclic siloxane pyrolyses at low pressures

Matrix isolation IR spectroscopy has been used to study the vacuum pyrolysis of hexamethylcyclotrisiloxane (D3), octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane (D4) and decamethyl cyclopentasiloxane (D5), and the results interpreted in the context of various kinetic models. In particular, it is shown that the significant pyrolysis products - which include CH3, CH4, C2H2, C2H4, C2H6 and SiO - may be satisfactorily accounted for by radical reactions involving dimethylsiloxane (D1), and estimates are made of the various chain lengths for the proposed reactions based on a range of ambient conditions.

A mechanistic study of the low pressure pyrolysis of linear siloxanes

Matrix isolation IR spectroscopy has been used to study the vacuum pyrolysis of 1,1,3,3-tetramethyldisiloxane (L1), 1,1,3,3,5,5-hexamethyltrisiloxane (L2) and 3H,5H-octamethyltetrasiloxane (L3) at ca. 1000 K in a flow reactor at low pressures. The hydrocarbons CH3, CH4, C2H2, C2H4, and C2H6 were observed as prominent pyrolysis products in all three systems, and amongst the weaker features are bands arising from the methylsilanes Me2SiH2 (for L1 and L2) and Me3SiH (for L3). The fundamental of SiO was also observed very weakly. By use of quantum chemical calculations combined with earlier kinetic models, mechanisms have been proposed involving the intermediacy of silanones Me2Si = O and MeSiH = O. Model calculations on the decomposition pathways of H3SiOSiH3 and H3SiOSiH2OSiH3 show that silanone elimination is favoured over silylene extrusion.

An in situ time-dependent study of the photodimerisation of chloro-derivatives of trans-cinnamic acid using infrared microspectroscopy with a synchrotron radiation source

The photodimerisation of single crystals of substituted cinnamic acid has been monitored continuously by infrared microscopy using a synchrotron source. The beta-form of 2,4-dichloro-trans-cinnamic acid dimerises under ultraviolet irradiation to form the corresponding beta-truxinic acid derivative in a reaction which follows strictly first order kinetics. By contrast the corresponding reactions in single crystals of beta-2-chloro-trans-cinnamic acid and beta-4-chloro-trans-cinnamic acid deviate somewhat from first order kinetics as a result of solid-state effects. In all three cases the reactions proceed smoothly from monomer to dimer with no hint of any reaction intermediate.

A comparison of the reactivity of germylene and dimethylgermylene with some methylgermanes. Direct kinetic and quantum chemical studies

Time-resolved studies of germylene, GeH2, and dimethygermylene, GeMe2, generated by the 193 nm laser flash photolysis of appropriate precursor molecules have been carried out to try to obtain rate coefficients for their bimolecular reactions with dimethylgermane, Me2GeH2, in the gas-phase. GeH2 + Me2GeH2 was studied over the pressure range 1-100 Torr with SF6 as bath gas and at five temperatures in the range 296-553 K. Only slight pressure dependences were found (at 386, 447 and 553 K). RRKM modelling was carried out to fit these pressure dependences. The high pressure rate coefficients gave the Arrhenius parameters: log(A/cm(3) molecule(-1)s(-1)) = -10.99 +/- 0.07 and E-a = -(7.35 +/- 0.48) kJ mol(-1). No reaction could be found between GeMe2 + Me2GeH2 at any temperature up to 549 K, and upper limits of ca. 10(-14) cm(3) molecule(-1)s(-1) were set for the rate coefficients. A rate coefficient of (1.33 +/- 0.04) x 10(-11)cm(3) molecule(-1)s(-1) was also obtained for GeH2 + MeGeH3 at 296 K. No reaction was found between GeMe2 and MeGeH3. Rate coefficient comparisons showed, inter alia, that in the substrate germane Me-for-H substitution increased the magnitudes of rate coefficients significantly, while in the germylene Me-for-H substitution decreased the magnitudes of rate coefficients by at least four orders of magnitude. Quantum chemical calculations (G2(MP2,SVP)// B3LYP level) supported these findings and showed that the lack of reactivity of GeMe2 is caused by a positive energy barrier for rearrangement of the initially formed complexes. Full details of the structures of intermediate complexes and the discussion of their stabilities are given in the paper.

An investigation of the germylene addition reaction, GeH2+C2H2: Time-resolved gas-phase kinetic studies and quantum chemical calculations of the reaction energy surface

Time resolved studies of germylene, GeH2, generated by laser flash photolysis of 3,4-dimethylgermacyclopentene-3, have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with acetylene, C2H2. The reaction was studied in the gas-phase over the pressure range 1-100 Tort, with SF6 as bath gas, at 5 temperatures in the range 297-553 K. The reaction showed a very slight pressure dependence at higher temperatures. The high pressure rate constants (obtained by extrapolation at the three higher temperatures) gave the Arrhenius equation: log(k(infinity)/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) (-10.94 +/- 0.05) + (6.10 +/- 0.36 kJ mol(-1))/RTln10. These Arrhenius parameters are consistent with a fast reaction occurring at approximately 30% of the collision rate at 298 K. Quantum chemical calculations (both DFT and ab initio G2//B3LYP and G2//QCISD) of the GeC2H4 potential energy surface (PES), show that GeH2 + C2H2 react initially to form germirene which can isomerise to vinylgermylene with a relatively low barrier. RRKM modelling, based on a loose association transition state, but assuming vinylgermylene is the end product (used in combination with a weak collisional deactivation model) predicts a strong pressure dependence using the calculated energies, in conflict with the experimental evidence. The detailed GeC2H4 PES shows considerable complexity with ten other accessible stable minima (B3LYP level), the three most stable of which are all germylenes. Routes through this complex surface were examined in detail. The only product combination which appears capable of satisfying the (P-3) + C2H4.C2H4 was confirmed as a product by GC observed lack of a strong pressure dependence is Ge(P-3) + C2H4. C2H4 was confirmed as a product by GC analysis. Although the formation of these products are shown to be possible by singlet-triplet curve crossing during dissociation of 1-germiranylidene (1-germacyclopropylidene), it seems more likely (on thermochernical grounds) that the triplet biradical, (GeCH2CH2.)-Ge-., is the immediate product precursor. Comparisons are made with the reaction of SiH2 with C2H2.

Time-resolved gas-phase kinetic and quantum chemical studies of the reaction of silylene with oxygen

Time-resolved kinetic studies of the reaction of silylene, SiH2, generated by laser flash photolysis of phenylsilane, have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with O-2. The reaction was studied in the gas phase over the pressure range 1-100 Torr in SF6 bath gas, at five temperatures in the range 297-600 K. The second order rate constants at 10 Torr were fitted to the Arrhenius equation: log(k/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = (-11.08 +/- 0.04) + (1.57 +/- 0.32 kJ mol(-1))/RT ln10 The decrease in rate constant values with increasing temperature, although systematic is very small. The rate constants showed slight increases in value with pressure at each temperature, but this was scarcely beyond experimental uncertainty. From estimates of Lennard-Jones collision rates, this reaction is occurring at ca. 1 in 20 collisions, almost independent of pressure and temperature. Ab initio calculations at the G3 level backed further by multi-configurational (MC) SCF calculations, augmented by second order perturbation theory (MRMP2), support a mechanism in which the initial adduct, H2SiOO, formed in the triplet state (T), undergoes intersystem crossing to the more stable singlet state (S) prior to further low energy isomerisation processes leading, via a sequence of steps, ultimately to dissociation products of which the lowest energy pair are H2O + SiO. The decomposition of the intermediate cyclo-siladioxirane, via O-O bond fission, plays an important role in the overall process. The bottleneck for the overall process appears to be the T -> S process in H2SiOO. This process has a small spin orbit coupling matrix element, consistent with an estimate of its rate constant of 1 x 10(9) s(-1) obtained with the aid of RRKM theory. This interpretation preserves the idea that, as in its reactions in general, SiH2 initially reacts at the encounter rate with O-2. The low values for the secondary reaction barriers on the potential energy surface account for the lack of an observed pressure dependence. Some comparisons are drawn with the reactions of CH2 + O-2 and SiCl2 + O-2.

Gas phase kinetic and quantum chemical studies of the reactions of silylene with the methylsilanes. Absolute rate constants, temperature dependences, RRKM modelling and potential energy surfaces

Time resolved studies of silylene, SiH2, generated by the 193 nm laser. ash photolysis of phenylsilane, have been carried out to obtain rate coefficients for its bimolecular reactions with methyl-, dimethyl- and trimethyl-silanes in the gas phase. The reactions were studied over the pressure range 3 - 100 Torr with SF6 as bath gas and at five temperatures in the range 300 - 625 K. Only slight pressure dependences were found for SiH2 + MeSiH3 ( 485 and 602 K) and for SiH2 + Me2SiH2 ( 600 K). The high pressure rate constants gave the following Arrhenius parameters: [GRAPHICS] These are consistent with fast, near to collision-controlled, association processes. RRKM modelling calculations are consistent with the observed pressure dependences ( and also the lack of them for SiH2 + Me3SiH). Ab initio calculations at both second order perturbation theory (MP2) and coupled cluster (CCSD(T)) levels, showed the presence of weakly-bound complexes along the reaction pathways. In the case of SiH2 + MeSiH3 two complexes, with different geometries, were obtained consistent with earlier studies of SiH2 + SiH4. These complexes were stabilised by methyl substitution in the substrate silane, but all had exceedingly low barriers to rearrangement to product disilanes. Although methyl groups in the substrate silane enhance the intrinsic SiH2 insertion rates, it is doubtful whether the intermediate complexes have a significant effect on the kinetics. A further calculation on the reaction MeSiH + SiH4 shows that the methyl substitution in the silylene should have a much more significant kinetic effect ( as observed in other studies).

What have we learnt about heavy carbenes through laser flash photolysis studies?

Time resolved gas-phase kinetic studies have contributed a great deal of fundamental information about the reactions and reactivity of heavy carbenes (silylenes, germylenes and stannylenes) during the past two decades. In this article we trace the development of our understanding through the mechanistic themes of intermediate complexes, third body assisted associations, catalysed reactions, non-observed reactions and substituent effects. Ab initio (quantum chemical) calculations have substantially assisted mechanistic interpretation and are discussed where appropriate. Trends in reactivity are identified and some signposts to future studies are indicated. This review, although detailed, is not comprehensive.

Infrared intensities of furan, pyrrole and thiophene: beyond the double harmonic approximation

Infrared intensities of the fundamental, overtone and combination transitions in furan, pyrrole and thiophene have been calculated using the variational normal coordinate code MULTIMODE. We use pure vibrational wavefunctions, and quartic force fields and cubic dipole moment vector surfaces, generated by density functional theory. The results are compared graphically with second-order perturbation calculations and with relative intensities from experiment for furan and pyrrole.