Simulation Supported Robot Programming using XML

The main objective of this master's thesis is to study robot programming using simulation software, and also how to embed the simulation software into company's own robot controlling software. The further goal is to study a new communication interface to the assembly line's components -more precisely how to connect the robot cell into this new communication system. Conveyor lines are already available where the conveyors use the new communication standard. The robot cell is not yet capable of communicating with to other devices using the new communication protocols. The main problem among robot manufacturers is that they all have their own communication systems and programming languages. There has not been any common programming language to program all the different robot manufacturers robots, until the RRS (Realistic Robot Simulation) standards were developed. The RRS - II makes it possible to create the robot programs in the simulation software and it gives a common user interface for different robot manufacturers robots. This thesis will present the RRS - II standard and the robot manufacturers situation for the RRS - II support. Thesis presents how the simulation software can be embedded into company's own robot controlling software and also how the robot cell can be connected to the CAMX (Computer Aided Manufacturing using XML) communication system.

An Interface Damage Model for the Simulation of Delamination Under Variable-Mode Ratio in Composite Materials

A thermodynamically consistent damage model for the simulation of progressive delamination under variable mode ratio is presented. The model is formulated in the context of the Damage Mechanics. The constitutive equation that results from the definition of the free energy as a function of a damage variable is used to model the initiation and propagation of delamination. A new delamination initiation criterion is developed to assure that the formulation can account for changes in the loading mode in a thermodynamically consistent way. The formulation proposed accounts for crack closure effets avoiding interfacial penetration of two adjacent layers aftercomplete decohesion. The model is implemented in a finite element formulation. The numerical predictions given by the model are compared with experimental results

Improving Transportation and Warehousing Efficiency with Simulation-Based Decision Support Systems

Transportation and warehousing are large and growing sectors in the society, and their efficiency is of high importance. Transportation also has a large share of global carbondioxide emissions, which are one the leading causes of anthropogenic climate warming. Various countries have agreed to decrease their carbon emissions according to the Kyoto protocol. Transportation is the only sector where emissions have steadily increased since the 1990s, which highlights the importance of transportation efficiency. The efficiency of transportation and warehousing can be improved with the help of simulations, but models alone are not sufficient. This research concentrates on the use of simulations in decision support systems. Three main simulation approaches are used in logistics: discrete-event simulation, systems dynamics, and agent-based modeling. However, individual simulation approaches have weaknesses of their own. Hybridization (combining two or more approaches) can improve the quality of the models, as it allows using a different method to overcome the weakness of one method. It is important to choose the correct approach (or a combination of approaches) when modeling transportation and warehousing issues. If an inappropriate method is chosen (this can occur if the modeler is proficient in only one approach or the model specification is not conducted thoroughly), the simulation model will have an inaccurate structure, which in turn will lead to misleading results. This issue can further escalate, as the decision-maker may assume that the presented simulation model gives the most useful results available, even though the whole model can be based on a poorly chosen structure. In this research it is argued that simulation- based decision support systems need to take various issues into account to make a functioning decision support system. The actual simulation model can be constructed using any (or multiple) approach, it can be combined with different optimization modules, and there needs to be a proper interface between the model and the user. These issues are presented in a framework, which simulation modelers can use when creating decision support systems. In order for decision-makers to fully benefit from the simulations, the user interface needs to clearly separate the model and the user, but at the same time, the user needs to be able to run the appropriate runs in order to analyze the problems correctly. This study recommends that simulation modelers should start to transfer their tacit knowledge to explicit knowledge. This would greatly benefit the whole simulation community and improve the quality of simulation-based decision support systems as well. More studies should also be conducted by using hybrid models and integrating simulations with Graphical Information Systems.

Comparison study of two competing models of an all mechanical power transmission system

A comparison between two competing models of an all mechanical power transmission system is studied by using Dymola –software as the simulation tool. This tool is compared with Matlab/ Simulink –software by using functionality, user-friendliness and price as comparison criteria. In this research we assume that the torque is balanceable and transmission ratios are calculated. Using kinematic connection sketches of the two transmission models, simulation models are built into the Dymola simulation environment. Models of transmission systems are modified according to simulation results to achieve a continuous variable transmission ratio. Simulation results are compared between the two transmission systems. The main features of Dymola and MATLAB/ Simulink are compared. Advantages and disadvantages of the two softwares are analyzed and compared.

Impacts of increased levels of wind penetration on the Electric Power System of the Åland Islands

The application of VSC-HVDC technology throughout the world has turned out to be an efficient solution regarding a large share of wind power in different power systems. This technology enhances the overall reliability of the grid by utilization of the active and reactive power control schemes which allows to maintain frequency and voltage on busbars of the end-consumers at the required level stated by the network operator. This master’s thesis is focused on the existing and planned wind farms as well as electric power system of the Åland Islands. The goal is to analyze the wind conditions of the islands and appropriately predict a possible production of the existing and planned wind farms with a help of WAsP software program. Further, to investigate the influence of increased wind power it is necessary to develop a simulation model of the electric grid and VSC-HVDC system in PSCAD and examine grid response to different wind power production cases with respect to the grid code requirements and ensure the stability of the power system.

Norms-based simulation for personalised service provision

User interfaces have the primary role of enabling access to information meeting individual users' needs. However, the user-systems interaction is still rigid, especially in support of complex environments where various types of users are involved. Among the approaches for improving user interface agility, we present a normative approach to the design interfaces of web applications, which allow delivering users personalized services according to parameters extracted from the simulation of norms in the social context. A case study in an e-Government context is used to illustrate the implications of the approach.

Modelling of control options for an outbreak of Mycoplasma gallisepticum in egg production: a decision support tool

Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) is a bacterium that causes respiratory disease in chickens, leading to reduced egg production. A dynamic simulation model was developed that can be used to assess the costs and benefits of control using antimicrobials or vaccination in caged or free range systems. The intended users are veterinarians and egg producers. A user interface is provided for input of flock specific parameters. The economic consequence of an MG outbreak is expressed as a reduction in expected egg output. The model predicts that either vaccination or microbial treatment can approximately halve potential losses from MG in some circumstances. Sensitivity analysis is used to test assumptions about infection rate and timing of an outbreak. Feedback from veterinarians points to the value of the model as a discussion tool with producers.

Desenvolvimento de Interface gráfica como suporte para soluções numéricas das equações de Maxwell em coordenadas gerais – 3D

Neste trabalho, é implementada uma interface gráfica de usuários (GUI) usando a ferramenta Qt da Nokia (versão 3.0). A interface visa simplificar a criação de cenários para a realização de simulações paralelas usando a técnica numérica Local Nonorthogonal Finite Difference Time-Domain (LN-FDTD), aplicada para solucionar as equações de Maxwell. O simulador foi desenvolvido usando a linguagem de programação C e paralelizado utilizando threads. Para isto, a biblioteca pthread foi empregada. A visualização 3D do cenário a ser simulado (e da malha) é realizada por um programa especialmente desenvolvido que utiliza a biblioteca OpenGL. Para melhorar o desenvolvimento e alcançar os objetivos do projeto computacional, foram utilizados conceitos da Engenharia de Software, tais como o modelo de processo de software por prototipagem. Ao privar o usuário de interagir diretamente com o código-fonte da simulação, a probabilidade de ocorrência de erros humanos durante o processo de construção de cenários é minimizada. Para demonstrar o funcionamento da ferramenta desenvolvida, foi realizado um estudo relativo ao efeito de flechas em linhas de baixa tensão nas tensões transitórias induzidas nas mesmas por descargas atmosféricas. As tensões induzidas nas tomadas da edificação também são estudadas.

Tool for biomedical signals processing

[ES]Educational tool for training biomedical engineers in the biomedical signals processing field has been developed. It is software for simulation and study of the results obtained in biomedical signals when different signals processing techniques are applied. The tool has been implemented on a graphical user interface to facilitate the use.

Numerical simulation of interdigitated back contact hetero-junction solar cells

The goal of this thesis is the application of an opto-electronic numerical simulation to heterojunction silicon solar cells featuring an all back contact architecture (Interdigitated Back Contact Hetero-Junction IBC-HJ). The studied structure exhibits both metal contacts, emitter and base, at the back surface of the cell with the objective to reduce the optical losses due to the shadowing by front contact of conventional photovoltaic devices. Overall, IBC-HJ are promising low-cost alternatives to monocrystalline wafer-based solar cells featuring front and back contact schemes, in fact, for IBC-HJ the high concentration doping diffusions are replaced by low-temperature deposition processes of thin amorphous silicon layers. Furthermore, another advantage of IBC solar cells with reference to conventional architectures is the possibility to enable a low-cost assembling of photovoltaic modules, being all contacts on the same side. A preliminary extensive literature survey has been helpful to highlight the specific critical aspects of IBC-HJ solar cells as well as the state-of-the-art of their modeling, processing and performance of practical devices. In order to perform the analysis of IBC-HJ devices, a two-dimensional (2-D) numerical simulation flow has been set up. A commercial device simulator based on finite-difference method to solve numerically the whole set of equations governing the electrical transport in semiconductor materials (Sentuarus Device by Synopsys) has been adopted. The first activity carried out during this work has been the definition of a 2-D geometry corresponding to the simulation domain and the specification of the electrical and optical properties of materials. In order to calculate the main figures of merit of the investigated solar cells, the spatially resolved photon absorption rate map has been calculated by means of an optical simulator. Optical simulations have been performed by using two different methods depending upon the geometrical features of the front interface of the solar cell: the transfer matrix method (TMM) and the raytracing (RT). The first method allows to model light prop-agation by plane waves within one-dimensional spatial domains under the assumption of devices exhibiting stacks of parallel layers with planar interfaces. In addition, TMM is suitable for the simulation of thin multi-layer anti reflection coating layers for the reduction of the amount of reflected light at the front interface. Raytracing is required for three-dimensional optical simulations of upright pyramidal textured surfaces which are widely adopted to significantly reduce the reflection at the front surface. The optical generation profiles are interpolated onto the electrical grid adopted by the device simulator which solves the carriers transport equations coupled with Poisson and continuity equations in a self-consistent way. The main figures of merit are calculated by means of a postprocessing of the output data from device simulation. After the validation of the simulation methodology by means of comparison of the simulation result with literature data, the ultimate efficiency of the IBC-HJ architecture has been calculated. By accounting for all optical losses, IBC-HJ solar cells result in a theoretical maximum efficiency above 23.5% (without texturing at front interface) higher than that of both standard homojunction crystalline silicon (Homogeneous Emitter HE) and front contact heterojuction (Heterojunction with Intrinsic Thin layer HIT) solar cells. However it is clear that the criticalities of this structure are mainly due to the defects density and to the poor carriers transport mobility in the amorphous silicon layers. Lastly, the influence of the most critical geometrical and physical parameters on the main figures of merit have been investigated by applying the numerical simulation tool set-up during the first part of the present thesis. Simulations have highlighted that carrier mobility and defects level in amorphous silicon may lead to a potentially significant reduction of the conversion efficiency.

A SIMULATION STUDY OF THE SIZE AND POWER OF SOME TWO-SAMPLE TESTS FOR UNEQUALLY CENSORED SURVIVAL DATA (RANK TESTS, LOGRANK, PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS, WILCOXON TESTS, EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION)

Sizes and power of selected two-sample tests of the equality of survival distributions are compared by simulation for small samples from unequally, randomly-censored exponential distributions. The tests investigated include parametric tests (F, Score, Likelihood, Asymptotic), logrank tests (Mantel, Peto-Peto), and Wilcoxon-Type tests (Gehan, Prentice). Equal sized samples, n = 18, 16, 32 with 1000 (size) and 500 (power) simulation trials, are compared for 16 combinations of the censoring proportions 0%, 20%, 40%, and 60%. For n = 8 and 16, the Asymptotic, Peto-Peto, and Wilcoxon tests perform at nominal 5% size expectations, but the F, Score and Mantel tests exceeded 5% size confidence limits for 1/3 of the censoring combinations. For n = 32, all tests showed proper size, with the Peto-Peto test most conservative in the presence of unequal censoring. Powers of all tests are compared for exponential hazard ratios of 1.4 and 2.0. There is little difference in power characteristics of the tests within the classes of tests considered. The Mantel test showed 90% to 95% power efficiency relative to parametric tests. Wilcoxon-type tests have the lowest relative power but are robust to differential censoring patterns. A modified Peto-Peto test shows power comparable to the Mantel test. For n = 32, a specific Weibull-exponential comparison of crossing survival curves suggests that the relative powers of logrank and Wilcoxon-type tests are dependent on the scale parameter of the Weibull distribution. Wilcoxon-type tests appear more powerful than logrank tests in the case of late-crossing and less powerful for early-crossing survival curves. Guidelines for the appropriate selection of two-sample tests are given. ^

Simulation of impulse response for indoor visible light communications using 3D CAD models

n this article, a tool for simulating the channel impulse response for indoor visible light communications using 3D computer-aided design (CAD) models is presented. The simulation tool is based on a previous Monte Carlo ray-tracing algorithm for indoor infrared channel estimation, but including wavelength response evaluation. The 3D scene, or the simulation environment, can be defined using any CAD software in which the user specifies, in addition to the setting geometry, the reflection characteristics of the surface materials as well as the structures of the emitters and receivers involved in the simulation. Also, in an effort to improve the computational efficiency, two optimizations are proposed. The first one consists of dividing the setting into cubic regions of equal size, which offers a calculation improvement of approximately 50% compared to not dividing the 3D scene into sub-regions. The second one involves the parallelization of the simulation algorithm, which provides a computational speed-up proportional to the number of processors used.

Sistema de simulación de escenarios de ciclos avanzados de combustible nuclear en transición = Simulation system for advanced fuel cycle transition scenarios

El estudio de los ciclos del combustible nuclear requieren de herramientas computacionales o "códigos" versátiles para dar respuestas al problema multicriterio de evaluar los actuales ciclos o las capacidades de las diferentes estrategias y escenarios con potencial de desarrollo en a nivel nacional, regional o mundial. Por otra parte, la introducción de nuevas tecnologías para reactores y procesos industriales hace que los códigos existentes requieran nuevas capacidades para evaluar la transición del estado actual del ciclo del combustible hacia otros más avanzados y sostenibles. Brevemente, esta tesis se centra en dar respuesta a las principales preguntas, en términos económicos y de recursos, al análisis de escenarios de ciclos de combustible, en particular, para el análisis de los diferentes escenarios del ciclo del combustible de relativa importancia para España y Europa. Para alcanzar este objetivo ha sido necesaria la actualización y el desarrollo de nuevas capacidades del código TR_EVOL (Transition Evolution code). Este trabajo ha sido desarrollado en el Programa de Innovación Nuclear del CIEMAT desde el año 2010. Esta tesis se divide en 6 capítulos. El primer capítulo ofrece una visión general del ciclo de combustible nuclear, sus principales etapas y los diferentes tipos utilizados en la actualidad o en desarrollo para el futuro. Además, se describen las fuentes de material nuclear que podrían ser utilizadas como combustible (uranio y otros). También se puntualizan brevemente una serie de herramientas desarrolladas para el estudio de estos ciclos de combustible nuclear. El capítulo 2 está dirigido a dar una idea básica acerca de los costes involucrados en la generación de electricidad mediante energía nuclear. Aquí se presentan una clasificación de estos costos y sus estimaciones, obtenidas en la bibliografía, y que han sido evaluadas y utilizadas en esta tesis. Se ha incluido también una breve descripción del principal indicador económico utilizado en esta tesis, el “coste nivelado de la electricidad”. El capítulo 3 se centra en la descripción del código de simulación desarrollado para el estudio del ciclo del combustible nuclear, TR_EVOL, que ha sido diseñado para evaluar diferentes opciones de ciclos de combustibles. En particular, pueden ser evaluados las diversos reactores con, posiblemente, diferentes tipos de combustibles y sus instalaciones del ciclo asociadas. El módulo de evaluaciones económica de TR_EVOL ofrece el coste nivelado de la electricidad haciendo uso de las cuatro fuentes principales de información económica y de la salida del balance de masas obtenido de la simulación del ciclo en TR_EVOL. Por otra parte, la estimación de las incertidumbres en los costes también puede ser efectuada por el código. Se ha efectuado un proceso de comprobación cruzada de las funcionalidades del código y se descrine en el Capítulo 4. El proceso se ha aplicado en cuatro etapas de acuerdo con las características más importantes de TR_EVOL, balance de masas, composición isotópica y análisis económico. Así, la primera etapa ha consistido en el balance masas del ciclo de combustible nuclear actual de España. La segunda etapa se ha centrado en la comprobación de la composición isotópica del flujo de masas mediante el la simulación del ciclo del combustible definido en el proyecto CP-ESFR UE. Las dos últimas etapas han tenido como objetivo validar el módulo económico. De este modo, en la tercera etapa han sido evaluados los tres principales costes (financieros, operación y mantenimiento y de combustible) y comparados con los obtenidos por el proyecto ARCAS, omitiendo los costes del fin del ciclo o Back-end, los que han sido evaluado solo en la cuarta etapa, haciendo uso de costes unitarios y parámetros obtenidos a partir de la bibliografía. En el capítulo 5 se analizan dos grupos de opciones del ciclo del combustible nuclear de relevante importancia, en términos económicos y de recursos, para España y Europa. Para el caso español, se han simulado dos grupos de escenarios del ciclo del combustible, incluyendo estrategias de reproceso y extensión de vida de los reactores. Este análisis se ha centrado en explorar las ventajas y desventajas de reprocesado de combustible irradiado en un país con una “relativa” pequeña cantidad de reactores nucleares. Para el grupo de Europa se han tratado cuatro escenarios, incluyendo opciones de transmutación. Los escenarios incluyen los reactores actuales utilizando la tecnología reactor de agua ligera y ciclo abierto, un reemplazo total de los reactores actuales con reactores rápidos que queman combustible U-Pu MOX y dos escenarios del ciclo del combustible con transmutación de actínidos minoritarios en una parte de los reactores rápidos o en sistemas impulsados por aceleradores dedicados a transmutación. Finalmente, el capítulo 6 da las principales conclusiones obtenidas de esta tesis y los trabajos futuros previstos en el campo del análisis de ciclos de combustible nuclear. ABSTRACT The study of the nuclear fuel cycle requires versatile computational tools or “codes” to provide answers to the multicriteria problem of assessing current nuclear fuel cycles or the capabilities of different strategies and scenarios with potential development in a country, region or at world level. Moreover, the introduction of new technologies for reactors and industrial processes makes the existing codes to require new capabilities to assess the transition from current status of the fuel cycle to the more advanced and sustainable ones. Briefly, this thesis is focused in providing answers to the main questions about resources and economics in fuel cycle scenario analyses, in particular for the analysis of different fuel cycle scenarios with relative importance for Spain and Europe. The upgrade and development of new capabilities of the TR_EVOL code (Transition Evolution code) has been necessary to achieve this goal. This work has been developed in the Nuclear Innovation Program at CIEMAT since year 2010. This thesis is divided in 6 chapters. The first one gives an overview of the nuclear fuel cycle, its main stages and types currently used or in development for the future. Besides the sources of nuclear material that could be used as fuel (uranium and others) are also viewed here. A number of tools developed for the study of these nuclear fuel cycles are also briefly described in this chapter. Chapter 2 is aimed to give a basic idea about the cost involved in the electricity generation by means of the nuclear energy. The main classification of these costs and their estimations given by bibliography, which have been evaluated in this thesis, are presented. A brief description of the Levelized Cost of Electricity, the principal economic indicator used in this thesis, has been also included. Chapter 3 is focused on the description of the simulation tool TR_EVOL developed for the study of the nuclear fuel cycle. TR_EVOL has been designed to evaluate different options for the fuel cycle scenario. In particular, diverse nuclear power plants, having possibly different types of fuels and the associated fuel cycle facilities can be assessed. The TR_EVOL module for economic assessments provides the Levelized Cost of Electricity making use of the TR_EVOL mass balance output and four main sources of economic information. Furthermore, uncertainties assessment can be also carried out by the code. A cross checking process of the performance of the code has been accomplished and it is shown in Chapter 4. The process has been applied in four stages according to the most important features of TR_EVOL. Thus, the first stage has involved the mass balance of the current Spanish nuclear fuel cycle. The second stage has been focused in the isotopic composition of the mass flow using the fuel cycle defined in the EU project CP-ESFR. The last two stages have been aimed to validate the economic module. In the third stage, the main three generation costs (financial cost, O&M and fuel cost) have been assessed and compared to those obtained by ARCAS project, omitting the back-end costs. This last cost has been evaluated alone in the fourth stage, making use of some unit cost and parameters obtained from the bibliography. In Chapter 5 two groups of nuclear fuel cycle options with relevant importance for Spain and Europe are analyzed in economic and resources terms. For the Spanish case, two groups of fuel cycle scenarios have been simulated including reprocessing strategies and life extension of the current reactor fleet. This analysis has been focused on exploring the advantages and disadvantages of spent fuel reprocessing in a country with relatively small amount of nuclear power plants. For the European group, four fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. Scenarios include the current fleet using Light Water Reactor technology and open fuel cycle, a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors burning U-Pu MOX fuel and two fuel cycle scenarios with Minor Actinide transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet or in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems. Finally, Chapter 6 gives the main conclusions obtained from this thesis and the future work foreseen in the field of nuclear fuel cycle analysis.

Hybrid wind-diesel power plant valuation and optimization using real option theory and dynamic programming

El sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido tiene un gran potencial en la prestación de suministro de energía a comunidades remotas. En comparación con los sistemas tradicionales de diesel, las plantas de energía híbridas ofrecen grandes ventajas tales como el suministro de capacidad de energía extra para "microgrids", reducción de los contaminantes y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, y la cobertura del riesgo de aumento inesperado del precio del combustible. El principal objetivo de la presente tesis es proporcionar nuevos conocimientos para la evaluación y optimización de los sistemas de energía híbrido eólico-diesel considerando las incertidumbres. Dado que la energía eólica es una variable estocástica, ésta no puede ser controlada ni predecirse con exactitud. La naturaleza incierta del viento como fuente de energía produce serios problemas tanto para la operación como para la evaluación del valor del sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido. Por un lado, la regulación de la potencia inyectada desde las turbinas de viento es una difícil tarea cuando opera el sistema híbrido. Por otro lado, el bene.cio económico de un sistema eólico-diesel híbrido se logra directamente a través de la energía entregada a la red de alimentación de la energía eólica. Consecuentemente, la incertidumbre de los recursos eólicos incrementa la dificultad de estimar los beneficios globales en la etapa de planificación. La principal preocupación del modelo tradicional determinista es no tener en cuenta la incertidumbre futura a la hora de tomar la decisión de operación. Con lo cual, no se prevé las acciones operativas flexibles en respuesta a los escenarios futuros. El análisis del rendimiento y simulación por ordenador en el Proyecto Eólico San Cristóbal demuestra que la incertidumbre sobre la energía eólica, las estrategias de control, almacenamiento de energía, y la curva de potencia de aerogeneradores tienen un impacto significativo sobre el rendimiento del sistema. En la presente tesis, se analiza la relación entre la teoría de valoración de opciones y el proceso de toma de decisiones. La opción real se desarrolla con un modelo y se presenta a través de ejemplos prácticos para evaluar el valor de los sistemas de energía eólica-diesel híbridos. Los resultados muestran que las opciones operacionales pueden aportar un valor adicional para el sistema de energía híbrida, cuando esta flexibilidad operativa se utiliza correctamente. Este marco se puede aplicar en la optimización de la operación a corto plazo teniendo en cuenta la naturaleza dependiente de la trayectoria de la política óptima de despacho, dadas las plausibles futuras realizaciones de la producción de energía eólica. En comparación con los métodos de valoración y optimización existentes, el resultado del caso de estudio numérico muestra que la política de operación resultante del modelo de optimización propuesto presenta una notable actuación en la reducción del con- sumo total de combustible del sistema eólico-diesel. Con el .n de tomar decisiones óptimas, los operadores de plantas de energía y los gestores de éstas no deben centrarse sólo en el resultado directo de cada acción operativa, tampoco deberían tomar decisiones deterministas. La forma correcta es gestionar dinámicamente el sistema de energía teniendo en cuenta el valor futuro condicionado en cada opción frente a la incertidumbre. ABSTRACT Hybrid wind-diesel power systems have a great potential in providing energy supply to remote communities. Compared with the traditional diesel systems, hybrid power plants are providing many advantages such as providing extra energy capacity to the micro-grid, reducing pollution and greenhouse-gas emissions, and hedging the risk of unexpected fuel price increases. This dissertation aims at providing novel insights for assessing and optimizing hybrid wind-diesel power systems considering the related uncertainties. Since wind power can neither be controlled nor accurately predicted, the energy harvested from a wind turbine may be considered a stochastic variable. This uncertain nature of wind energy source results in serious problems for both the operation and value assessment of the hybrid wind-diesel power system. On the one hand, regulating the uncertain power injected from wind turbines is a difficult task when operating the hybrid system. On the other hand, the economic profit of a hybrid wind-diesel system is achieved directly through the energy delivered to the power grid from the wind energy. Therefore, the uncertainty of wind resources has increased the difficulty in estimating the total benefits in the planning stage. The main concern of the traditional deterministic model is that it does not consider the future uncertainty when making the dispatch decision. Thus, it does not provide flexible operational actions in response to the uncertain future scenarios. Performance analysis and computer simulation on the San Cristobal Wind Project demonstrate that the wind power uncertainty, control strategies, energy storage, and the wind turbine power curve have a significant impact on the performance of the system. In this dissertation, the relationship between option pricing theory and decision making process is discussed. A real option model is developed and presented through practical examples for assessing the value of hybrid wind-diesel power systems. Results show that operational options can provide additional value to the hybrid power system when this operational flexibility is correctly utilized. This framework can be applied in optimizing short term dispatch decisions considering the path-dependent nature of the optimal dispatch policy, given the plausible future realizations of the wind power production. Comparing with the existing valuation and optimization methods, result from numerical example shows that the dispatch policy resulting from the proposed optimization model exhibits a remarkable performance in minimizing the total fuel consumption of the wind-diesel system. In order to make optimal decisions, power plant operators and managers should not just focus on the direct outcome of each operational action; neither should they make deterministic decisions. The correct way is to dynamically manage the power system by taking into consideration the conditional future value in each option in response to the uncertainty.

Design and implementation of graphical user interfaces for complex simulations

The development of increasingly powerful computers, which has enabled the use of windowing software, has also opened the way for the computer study, via simulation, of very complex physical systems. In this study, the main issues related to the implementation of interactive simulations of complex systems are identified and discussed. Most existing simulators are closed in the sense that there is no access to the source code and, even if it were available, adaptation to interaction with other systems would require extensive code re-writing. This work aims to increase the flexibility of such software by developing a set of object-oriented simulation classes, which can be extended, by subclassing, at any level, i.e., at the problem domain, presentation or interaction levels. A strategy, which involves the use of an object-oriented framework, concurrent execution of several simulation modules, use of a networked windowing system and the re-use of existing software written in procedural languages, is proposed. A prototype tool which combines these techniques has been implemented and is presented. It allows the on-line definition of the configuration of the physical system and generates the appropriate graphical user interface. Simulation routines have been developed for the chemical recovery cycle of a paper pulp mill. The application, by creation of new classes, of the prototype to the interactive simulation of this physical system is described. Besides providing visual feedback, the resulting graphical user interface greatly simplifies the interaction with this set of simulation modules. This study shows that considerable benefits can be obtained by application of computer science concepts to the engineering domain, by helping domain experts to tailor interactive tools to suit their needs.