The survival of the welfare state

This paper provides an analytical characterization of Markov perfectequilibria in a politico-economic model with repeated voting, whereagents vote over distortionary income redistribution. The key featureof the theory is that the future constituency of redistributive policiesdepends positively on the current level of redistribution, since thisaffects both private investments and the future distribution of voters.Agents vote rationally and fullly anticipate the effects of their politicalchoice on both private incentives and future voting outcomes. The modelfeatures multiple equilibria. In "pro-welfare" equilibria, both welfarestate policies and their effects on distribution persist forever. In"anti-welfare equilibria", even a majority of beneficiaries ofredistributive policies vote strategically so as to induce the formationof a future majority that will vote for zero redistribution.

Crossing the Rio Grande: Migrations, business cycles and the welfare state

In this paper we study the macroeconomic effects of an inflow oflow-skilled workers into an economy where there is capital accumulation and two types of agents. We find that there are substantial dynamic effects following unexpected migrations with adjustments that resemble those triggered by a sudden disruption of the capital stock. We look at the interrelations between these dynamic effects and three different fiscal systems for the redistribution of income and find that these schemes can change the dynamics and lead to prolonged periods of adjustments. Theaggregate welfare implications are sensitive to the welfare system: while there are welfare gains without redistribution, these gains may be turned into costs when the state engages in redistribution.

Stabilization versus insurance: Welfare effects of procyclical taxation under incomplete markets

We construct and calibrate a general equilibrium business cycle model with unemployment and precautionary saving. We compute the cost of business cycles and locate the optimum in a set of simple cyclical fiscal policies. Our economy exhibits productivity shocks, giving firms an incentive to hire more when productivity is high. However, business cycles make workers' income riskier, both by increasing the unconditional probability of unusuallylong unemployment spells, and by making wages more variable, and therefore they decrease social welfare by around one-fourth or one-third of 1% of consumption. Optimal fiscal policy offsets the cycle, holding unemployment benefits constant but varying the tax rate procyclically to smooth hiring. By running a deficit of 4% to 5% of output in recessions, the government eliminates half the variation in the unemployment rate, most of the variation in workers'aggregate consumption, and most of the welfare cost of business cycles.

A measure of rationality and welfare

There is evidence showing that individual behavior often deviates fromthe classical principle of maximization. This evidence raises at least two importantquestions: (i) how severe the deviations are and (ii) which method is the best forextracting relevant information from choice behavior for the purposes of welfare analysis.In this paper we address these two questions by identifying from a foundationalanalysis a new measure of the rationality of individuals that enables the analysis ofindividual welfare in potentially inconsistent subjects, all based on standard revealedpreference data. We call such measure minimal index.

Immigration and the survival of the welfare state

This paper analyzes the political sustainability of the welfare state in a model where immigration policy is also endogenous. In the model, the skills of the native population are affected by immigration and skill accumulation. Moreover, immigrants affect future policies, once they gain the right to vote. The main finding is that the long-run survival of redistributive policies is linked to an immigration policy specifying both skill and quantity restrictions. In particular, in steady state the unskilled majority admits a limited inflow of unskilled immigrants in order to offset growth in the fraction of skilled voters and maintain a high degree of income redistribution.Interestingly, equilibrium immigration policy shifts from unrestricted skilled immigration,when the country is skill-scarce, to restricted unskilled immigration, as the fraction of native skilled workers increases. The analysis also suggests a new set of variables that may help explain international differences in immigration restrictions.

Poor, hungry and ignorant: Numeracy and the impact of high food prices in industrializing Britain, 1780-1850

This paper uses the ability to recall one s age correctly as an indicator of numeracy.We show that low levels of nutrition impaired numeracy in industrializing England, 1780-1850.Numeracy declined markedly among those born during the war years, especially where wheatwas dear. England s nascent welfare state mitigated the negative effect of high food prices oncognitive skills. Nutrition during early development mattered for labor market outcomes:individuals born in periods or countries with high age heaping were more likely to sort intooccupations with limited intellectual requirements.

Crescimento Económico em Cabo Verde e seu Impacto na Sustentabilidade Ambiental

Para que o crescimento económico seja efetivo, importa registar de igual modo o crescimento real nas outras vertentes que sustentam o próprio crescimento, assim é cada vez mais importante introduzir variáveis ambientais e sociais quando se procede à análise efetiva do crescimento económico. O “crescimento económico é um indicador que revela o bem-estar económico de um país”, (Bürgenmeier, 2005, p.16-17). Só se pode falar da sustentabilidade ao nível do crescimento económico, se efetivamente os recursos forem devidamente racionalizados, mas é igualmente muito importante ter em conta a reutilização de recursos, sobretudo quando são escassos ou quando representam riscos sérios para o ambiente como também para a economia, entre outros. O protocolo do Quioto, a Convenção Quadro sobre as Mudanças Climáticas e os Objetivos Do Milénio (ODM), são apenas alguns exemplos de programas cujos objetivos visam essencialmente disciplinar a emissão de dióxido de carbono (CO2). Um dos objetivos é o de tentar “educar” o mundo global para os problemas que decorrem do uso abusivo e descontrolado de recursos, principalmente aqueles que podem pôr em causa a sustentabilidade do planeta terra. Cabo Verde (CV) é um dos poucos países ao nível do continente africano, e único na sua sub-região, que tem cumprido com os objetivos dos projetos acima listados. Essas conquistas têm permitido que este país conduza as suas políticas de desenvolvimento, balizadas em contextos das melhores práticas mundialmente aceites. Têm sido canalizados investimentos em infraestruturas de elevado valor acrescentado para a captação e exploração de energias verdes. A presente dissertação tem como objetivos: identificar os eventuais impactos ambientais em Cabo Verde que poderão decorrer do crescimento e desenvolvimento económico; sugerir melhorias ao nível da sustentabilidade. Conclui-se, por meio de inquéritos conduzidos por nós, que os Cabo-verdianos se mostram dispostos a colaborar financeiramente para a proteção ambiental em Cabo Verde.

Energy as an indicator of modernisation in Latin America by 1925

In absence of comparable macroeconomic indicators for most of the Latin American economiesbeyond the 1930s, this paper presents an estimate of the apparent consumption per head of coal and petroleum for 25 countries of Latin American and the Caribbean for the year 1925, doubling the number of countries for which energy consumption estimates were previously available. Energy consumption is then used as an indicator of economic modernisation. As a result, the paper provides the basis for a quantitative comparative analysis of modernisation performance beyond the few countries for which historical national accounts are available in Latin America.

Hypothesis on immigration and welfare

The number of hypothesis trying to explain which are the reasons behind the decision to migrate to work into a developed country are diverse and at the same time, difficult to test due to the multiplicity of factors which affect it. This papers attempts to move forward trying to disentangle which are the socio-economic factors that explain the differences in the figures of immigrants in the OECD countries. We show empirical evidence about the determinants of the migratory flows to 17 OECD countries from 65 countries in the 1980-2000 period. Our results reveal the importance to differentiate the inflows composition by at least income in the origin countries. Thus, regarding inflows from non-high-income countries, the results suggest that there is a pull effect from monetary and not real income, and then, the welfare magnets hypothesis should be rejected. This group reacts more to the migratory policy than the inflows coming from high-income countries, although those policies designed to slow down the inflows have not been able, in the aggregate, to reduce them.

A dynamic analysis of human welfare in a warming planet

Climate science indicates that climate stabilization requires low GHG emissions. Is thisconsistent with nondecreasing human welfare?Our welfare or utility index emphasizes education, knowledge, and the environment. Weconstruct and calibrate a multigenerational model with intertemporal links provided by education,physical capital, knowledge and the environment.We reject discounted utilitarianism and adopt, first, the Pure Sustainability Optimization (orIntergenerational Maximin) criterion, and, second, the Sustainable Growth Optimization criterion,that maximizes the utility of the first generation subject to a given future rate of growth. We applythese criteria to our calibrated model via a novel algorithm inspired by the turnpike property.The computed paths yield levels of utility higher than the level at reference year 2000 for allgenerations. They require the doubling of the fraction of labor resources devoted to the creation ofknowledge relative to the reference level, whereas the fractions of labor allocated to consumptionand leisure are similar to the reference ones. On the other hand, higher growth rates requiresubstantial increases in the fraction of labor devoted to education, together with moderate increasesin the fractions of labor devoted to knowledge and the investment in physical capital.

A Brief Survey of Child Welfare in Iowa, 1937-1940

History of Child Welfare in Iowa and the studies pertaining to it for the years 1937 and 1940. Includes a table showing number of children and money paid per child through Widow's Pensions for the year 1939.

The History of the Establishment of the Division of Child Welfare of the Social Welfare Department of the State of Iowa, 1938

History of Child Welfare Legislation in the State of Iowa 1838-1898; Establishment of the Iowa State board of Control in 1898 and its influence on Child Welfare Legislation until 1925; Immediate background, organizing and the administration functions of the Child Welfare Division of the Social Welfare Department of the State of Iowa. NOTE: This document has pagination errors.

Report of the Section of Agencies and Institutions Division of Child Welfare State Department of Social Welfare, 1943

History of child and social welfare in the State of Iowa including legal responsibilities, rules and regulations, inspections and licensing and supervision. it also covers cooperation with state agencies. It also describes in detail the histories, functions and problems of individual welfare homes and schools.