922 resultados para volatility term structure


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This paper explores the benefits of including age-structure in the control rule (HCR) when decision makers regard their (age-structured) models as approximations. We find that introducing age structure into the HCR reduces both the volatility of the spawning biomass and the yield. Although at a fairly imprecise level the benefits are lower, there are still major advantages for actual assessment precision of the case study. Moreover, we find that when age-structure is included in the HCR the relative ranking of different policies in terms of variance in biomass and yield does not differ. These results are shown both theoretically and numerically by applying the model to the Southern Hake fishery.

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To obtain accurate information from a structural tool it is necessary to have an understanding of the physical principles which govern the interaction between the probe and the sample under investigation. In this thesis a detailed study of the physical basis for Extended X-ray Absorption Fine Structure (EXAFS) spectroscopy is presented. A single scattering formalism of EXAFS is introduced which allows a rigorous treatment of the central atom potential. A final state interaction formalism of EXAFS is also discussed. Multiple scattering processes are shown to be significant for systems of certain geometries. The standard single scattering EXAFS analysis produces erroneous results if the data contain a large multiple scattering contribution. The effect of thermal vibrations on such multiple scattering paths is also discussed. From symmetry considerations it is shown that only certain normal modes contribute to the Debye-Waller factor for a particular scattering path. Furthermore, changes in the scattering angles induced by thermal vibrations produces additional EXAFS components called modification factors. These factors are shown to be small for most systems.

A study of the physical basis for the determination of structural information from EXAFS data is also presented. An objective method of determining the background absorption and the threshold energy is discussed and involves Gaussian functions. In addition, a scheme to determine the nature of the scattering atom in EXAFS experiments is introduced. This scheme is based on the fact that the phase intercept is a measure of the type of scattering atom. A method to determine bond distances is also discussed and does not require the use of model compounds or calculated phase shifts. The physical basis for this method is the absence of a linear term in the scattering phases. Therefore, it is possible to separate these phases from the linear term containing the distance information in the total phase.

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The single ionization of an He atom by intense linearly polarized laser field in the tunneling regime is studied by S- matrix theory. When only the first term of the expansion of the S matrix is considered and time, spatial distribution, and fluctuation of the laser pulse are taken into account, the obtained momentum distribution in the polarization direction of laser field is consistent with the semiclassical calculation, which only considers tunneling and the interaction between the free electron and external field. When the second term, which includes the interaction between the core and the free electron, is considered, the momentum distribution shows a complex multipeak structure with the central minimum and the positions of some peaks are independent of the intensity in some intensity regime, which is consistent with the recent experimental result. Based on our analysis, we found that the structures observed in the momentum distribution of an He atom are attributed to the " soft" collision of the tunneled electron with the core.

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The analytical vectorial structure of HGB is investigated in the far field based on the vector plane wave spectrum and the method of stationary phase. The energy flux distributions of HGB in the far-field, which is composed of TE term and TM term, are demonstrated. The physics pictures of HGB is illustrated from the vectorial structure, which is important to understand the theoretical aspects of both scalar and vector HGB propagation. (c) 2008 Optical Society of America.

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To understand harbor seal social and mating strategies, I examined site fidelity, seasonal abundance and distribution, herd integrity, and underwater behavior of individual harbor seals in southern Monterey Bay. Individual harbor seals (n = 444) were identified by natural markings and represented greater than 80% of an estimated 520 seals within this community. Year to year fidelity of individual harbor seals to southern Monterey Bay coastline was 84% (n = 388), and long-term associations (>2 yrs) among individuals were common (>40%). Consistent with these long-term associations, harbor seals were highly social underwater throughout the year. Underwater social behavior included three primary types: (1) visual and acoustic displays, such as vocalizing, surface splashing, and bubble-blowing; (2) playful or agonistic social behavior such as rolling, mounting, attending, and biting; and (3) signal gestures such as head-thrusting, fore-flipper scratch~ng, and growling. Frequency of these types of behavior was related to seal age, gender, season, and resource availability. Underwater behavior had a variety of functions, including promotion of learning and social development, reduction of aggression and preservation of social bonds by maintaining social hierarchy, and facilitation of mate selection during breeding season. Social behavior among adult males was significantly correlated with vocalization characteristics (r = 0.99, X2 = 37.7, p = 0.00087), indicating that seals may assess their competition based on underwater vocalization displays and adopt individual strategies for attracting females during breeding season based on social status. Individual mating strategies may include defending underwater territories, using scramble tactics, and developing social alliances. (PDF contains 105 pages)

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In the present study we have investigated the population genetic structure of albacore (Thunnus alalunga, Bonnaterre 1788) and assessed the loss of genetic diversity, likely due to overfishing, of albacore population in the North Atlantic Ocean. For this purpose, 1,331 individuals from 26 worldwide locations were analyzed by genotyping 75 novel nuclear SNPs. Our results indicated the existence of four genetically homogeneous populations delimited within the Mediterranean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Current definition of stocks allows the sustainable management of albacore since no stock includes more than one genetic entity. In addition, short-and long-term effective population sizes were estimated for the North Atlantic Ocean albacore population, and results showed no historical decline for this population. Therefore, the genetic diversity and, consequently, the adaptive potential of this population have not been significantly affected by overfishing.

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Long-term sustainable management of wild populations should be based on management actions that account for the genetic structure among populations. Knowledge of genetic structure and of the degree of demographic exchange between discreet [sic] populations allows managers to better define management units. However, adequate gene loci for population assessments are not always available. In this study, variable co-dominant DNA loci in the heavily exploited marine genus Brevoortia were developed with a microsatellite-enriched DNA library for the Gulf Menhaden (Brevoortia patronus). Microsatellite marker discovery was followed by genetic characterization of 4 endemic North American Brevoortia species, by using 14 novel loci as well as 5 previously described loci. Power analysis of these loci for use in species identification and genetic stock structure was used to assess their potential to improve the stock definition in the menhaden fishery of the Gulf of Mexico. These loci could be used to reliably identify menhaden species in the Gulf of Mexico with an estimated error rate of α=0.0001. Similarly, a power analysis completed on the basis of observed allele frequencies in Gulf Menhaden indicated that these markers can be used to detect very small levels of genetic divergence (Fst≈0.004) among simulated populations, with sample sizes as small as n=50 individuals. A cursory analysis of genetic structure among Gulf Menhaden sampled throughout the Gulf of Mexico indicated limited genetic structure among sampling locations, although the available sampling did not reach the target number (n=50) necessary to detect minimal values of significant structure.

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The primary objective of this study was to assess the efficacy of the Virgin Islands Coral Reef National Monument (VICR), a marine protected area in St John, US Virgin Islands. Surveys of habitat and fishes inside and outside of VICR were conducted in 2003-2008. Areas outside the VICR had significantly more scleractinian corals, greater habitat complexity, and greater species richness and density of reef fishes than areas inside., Areas inside and outside the VICR exhibited significant decreases in percent scleractinian coral coverage over the study period. A contrasting trend of increasing macroalgal cover was also observed. No clear effect of the severe 2005 coral bleaching event was observed suggesting other causal factors. No obvious trends in the fish community were observed across the study period. The significant decline in habitat condition, coupled with the initial incorporation of some of the more degraded reefs into the marine protected area may result in a longer time period necessary to detect positive changes in the St. John coral reef ecosystem and associated reef fish abundance and community structure.

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EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The effects of gradual climate change (ie, multi-decadal) on biological communities are not well understood for most natural systems, owing principally to the lack of quantitative observations in early studies. ... We resurveyed invertebrate species on an intertidal transect in central California, first established and surveyed in 1931, to assess shifts in community structure.

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Leptobrachium ailaonicum is a vulnerable anuran restricted to a patchy distribution associated with small mountain streams surrounded by forested slopes at mid-elevations (approximately 2000-2600 m) in the subtropical Mount Wuliang and Mount Ailao ranges in southwest China (Yunnan Province) and northern Vietnam. Given high habitat specificity and lack of suitable habitat in lower elevations between these ranges, we hypothesized limited gene flow between populations throughout its range. We used two mitochondrial genes to construct a phylogeographic pattern within this species in order to test our hypothesis. We also examined whether this phylogeographic pattern is a response to past geological events and/or climatic oscillations. A total of 1989 base pairs were obtained from 81 individuals of nine populations yielding 51 unique haplotypes. Both Bayesian and maximum parsimony phylogenetic analyses revealed four deeply divergent and reciprocally monophyletic mtDNA lineages that approximately correspond to four geographical regions separated by deep river valleys. These results suggest a long history of allopatric separation by vicariance. The distinct geographic distributions of four major clades and the estimated divergence time suggest spatial and temporal separations that coincide with climatic and paleogeographic changes following the orogeny and uplift of Mount Ailao during the late Miocene to mid Pliocene in southwest China. At the southern distribution, the presence of two sympatric yet differentiated clades in two areas are interpreted as a result of secondary contact between previously allopatric populations during cooler Pleistocene glacial cycles. Analysis of molecular variance indicates that most of the observed genetic variation occurs among the four regions implying long-term interruption of maternal gene flow, suggesting that L ailaonicum may represent more than one distinct species and should at least be separated into four management units corresponding to these four geographic lineages for conservation. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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This paper explores the ignition and subsequent evolution of spray flames in a bluff-body configuration with and without swirl. Ethanol and n-heptane are used to compare the effects of volatility. Ignition is performed by a laser spark. High speed imaging of OH *-chemiluminescence and OH-PLIF collected at 5kHz are used to investigate the behaviour of the flames during the first stages of ignition and the stable flame structure following ignition. Swirl induces a wider and shorter flame, precession, and multiple reaction zones, while the non-swirling flames have a simpler structure. The reaction fronts seem thinner with ethanol than with heptane. The dataset can be used for model validation. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

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This study describes the current status of the small fish community in Niushan Lake in China, and examines the spatial and seasonal variations of the community in relation to key environmental factors. Based on macrophyte cover conditions, the lake was divided into three major habitat types: (1) Potamogeton maackianus habitat, (2) Potamogeton maackianus and Myriophyllum spicatum habitat, and (3) uncovered or less-covered habitat. Fish were sampled quantitatively in the three habitat types by block nets seasonally from September 2002 to August 2003. A total of 10 469 individuals from 27 fish species were caught, among which 20 species were considered as small fishes. Rhodeus ocellatus, Paracheilognathus imberbis, Pseudorasbora parva, Micropercops swinhonis and Cultrichthys erythropterus were recognized as dominant small fishes according to their abundance and occurrence. It was noted that (1) small fishes predominated the total number of fish species in the lake, which reflected to some degree the size diminution phenomenon of fish resources; (2) many small fishes had plant detritus as their food item, which was consistent with the abundance of macrophyte detritus in the lake and implied the importance of detritus in supporting small fish secondary production. Canonical correspondence analysis suggested that the spatial distributions of most small fishes were associated with complex macrophyte cover conditions. Macrophyte biomass was positively correlated with species richness, diversity index and the catch per unit of effort (CPUE) of the fish community. Water depth had no significant effects on species diversity and distribution of the small fishes. Correspondence analysis revealed a higher occurrence of the small fishes and higher abundance of individuals in summer and autumn. Seasonal length-frequency distributions of several species indicated that more larval and juvenile individuals appeared in spring and summer. This study provides some baseline information which will be essential to long-term monitoring of small fish communities in the Yangtze lakes.

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The phytoplankton community structure, in terms of species composition, total standing crop, and abundance of the dominant algal species, at four stations in Donghu Lake, Wuhan, China, was investigated monthly from January 1994 to December 1996. A total of 260 taxa was observed, of which Chlorophyta (106 taxa) contributed the highest portion of the total number of taxa, followed by Bacillariophyta (82 taxa) and Cyanophyta (32 taxa). The total standing crop measured by means of chlorophyll a content, cell density, and cell biovolume, as well as the abundance of the dominant species, declined in the order of Station I to Station IV. Seasonal changes of the standing crop varied greatly among the four stations. Although the cell density at the four stations showed a single peak within a year, the peak density varied from July to November, dependent on the sampling year and the station. For chlorophyll a content and cell biovolume, multiple peaks were observed at Stations I and II, but a single peak was found at Stations III and IV. The phytoplankton community structure indicated that the trophic status was the highest at Station I (most eutrophic), followed by Station II; Stations III and IV were the least trophic areas. The long-term changes in phytoplankton community structure further suggested that changes in phytoplankton community structure were correlated with water quality, and eutrophication of Donghu Lake had been aggravated since the 1950s.

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Long-term changes In the crustacean zooplankton community (calanoid and cyclopoid copepods and cladocerans) were studied in Lake Donghu, a shallow and eutrophic Chinese lake. This lake had been earlier stocked with two pump Alter-feeding Ashes, silver carp (Hypopthalmichthys molitrix) and bighead carp (Aristichthys nobilis). During the 1950s and the mid-1980s, the ratio of copepods to cladocerans was relatively stable but showed a general increase thereafter. From the early-1980s to the 1990s, calanoid/cyclopoid ratios decreased obviously. In the 1990s, Cyclops vicinus, Diaphanosoma brachyurum, and Moina micrura were dominant the abundance of C. vicinus and M. micrura increased significantly; and D, brachyurum showed a substantial decrease. The study shows that under extremely high pressure of Ash predation, the species which could recover rapidly from fish predation would be the most likely to survive and increase their numbers.

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In contrast to the relatively well documented impact of particulate-feeding fish on zooplankton communities, little attention has been devoted to the impact of filter-feeding fish. Filter-feeding silver and bighead carp are the most intensively cultured fish species in Asia and comprise much of the production of Chinese aquaculture. However, little information is known about the impact of either fish on the zooplankton community. Long-term changes in the Copepoda community (1957-1996) were studied at two sampling stations of a subtropical Chinese lake (Lake Donghu) dominated by silver and bighead carp. For both calanoids and cyclopoids, the littoral station (I) was much more resource profitable than the pelagic station (II). There has been a tremendous increase in the annual fish catch over the past 30 years due to the increased stocking with fingerlings of the two carp species. There was a notably higher fish density at Station I than at Station II. Cyclopoid abundance was notably higher at Station I than at Station II during the 1950s to the 1980s, while the reverse became true in the 1990s. This is probably because when fish abundance increased to an extremely high level, the impact of fish predation on the cyclopoids became more important than that of food resources at the littoral station. At both stations, cyclopoid abundance was relatively low in spite of the presence of abundant prey. Similarly, calanoid density did not differ significantly between the two stations in the 1950s and 1960s, but was significantly lower at Station I than at Station II during the 1980s and 1990s. Such changes are attributed to the gradient of fish predation between the stations and an increasing predation pressure by the fish. The increased fish predation also correlated with a shift in summer-dominant calanoids from larger species to smaller ones. In conclusion, the predaceous cyclopoids are affected by fish predation to a much lesser extent than the herbivorous calanoids, and therefore increased predation by filter-feeding fish results in a definite increase in the cyclopoid/calanoid ratio. Predation by filter-feeding fish has been a driving force in shaping the copepod community structure of Lake Donghu during the past decades.