EVALUATING INFRASTRUCTURE PERFORMANCE TO ASSIST FACILITY MANAGEMENT TOWARD SUSTAINABLE SYSTEMS

Civil infrastructure provides essential services for the development of both society and economy. It is very important to manage systems efficiently to ensure sound performance. However, there are challenges in information extraction from available data, which also necessitates the establishment of methodologies and frameworks to assist stakeholders in the decision making process. This research proposes methodologies to evaluate systems performance by maximizing the use of available information, in an effort to build and maintain sustainable systems. Under the guidance of problem formulation from a holistic view proposed by Mukherjee and Muga, this research specifically investigates problem solving methods that measure and analyze metrics to support decision making. Failures are inevitable in system management. A methodology is developed to describe arrival pattern of failures in order to assist engineers in failure rescues and budget prioritization especially when funding is limited. It reveals that blockage arrivals are not totally random. Smaller meaningful subsets show good random behavior. Additional overtime failure rate is analyzed by applying existing reliability models and non-parametric approaches. A scheme is further proposed to depict rates over the lifetime of a given facility system. Further analysis of sub-data sets is also performed with the discussion of context reduction. Infrastructure condition is another important indicator of systems performance. The challenges in predicting facility condition are the transition probability estimates and model sensitivity analysis. Methods are proposed to estimate transition probabilities by investigating long term behavior of the model and the relationship between transition rates and probabilities. To integrate heterogeneities, model sensitivity is performed for the application of non-homogeneous Markov chains model. Scenarios are investigated by assuming transition probabilities follow a Weibull regressed function and fall within an interval estimate. For each scenario, multiple cases are simulated using a Monte Carlo simulation. Results show that variations on the outputs are sensitive to the probability regression. While for the interval estimate, outputs have similar variations to the inputs. Life cycle cost analysis and life cycle assessment of a sewer system are performed comparing three different pipe types, which are reinforced concrete pipe (RCP) and non-reinforced concrete pipe (NRCP), and vitrified clay pipe (VCP). Life cycle cost analysis is performed for material extraction, construction and rehabilitation phases. In the rehabilitation phase, Markov chains model is applied in the support of rehabilitation strategy. In the life cycle assessment, the Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) tools are used in estimating environmental emissions for all three phases. Emissions are then compared quantitatively among alternatives to support decision making.

Evaluating statistical methods used to estimate the number of postsynaptic receptors.

Calcium levels in spines play a significant role in determining the sign and magnitude of synaptic plasticity. The magnitude of calcium influx into spines is highly dependent on influx through N-methyl D-aspartate (NMDA) receptors, and therefore depends on the number of postsynaptic NMDA receptors in each spine. We have calculated previously how the number of postsynaptic NMDA receptors determines the mean and variance of calcium transients in the postsynaptic density, and how this alters the shape of plasticity curves. However, the number of postsynaptic NMDA receptors in the postsynaptic density is not well known. Anatomical methods for estimating the number of NMDA receptors produce estimates that are very different than those produced by physiological techniques. The physiological techniques are based on the statistics of synaptic transmission and it is difficult to experimentally estimate their precision. In this paper we use stochastic simulations in order to test the validity of a physiological estimation technique based on failure analysis. We find that the method is likely to underestimate the number of postsynaptic NMDA receptors, explain the source of the error, and re-derive a more precise estimation technique. We also show that the original failure analysis as well as our improved formulas are not robust to small estimation errors in key parameters.

Genetic predisposition to prostate cancer

Prostate cancer (PC) is a significant economic and health burden in the U.S. and Europe but its causes are largely unknown. The most significant risk factors (after gender) are age and family history of the disease. A gene with high penetrance but low frequency on chromosome 1q, HPC 1, has been suggested to cause a proportion of the familial aggregation of PC but other more common genes, conferring less risk, are also thought to contribute to disease predisposition. We have pursued a strategy to study both types of genetic risk in PC. To identify high penetrance genes, affected men from thirteen families have been genotyped for genetic linkage analysis at six microsatellite markers spanning 45 cM of 1q24-25. Both LOD score and non-parametric statistics provide no significant support for HPC1 in this genomic region, although 3 of the families did combine to produce a LOD score of 0.9. These families will be included in a genome wide search for other PC predisposition genes as part of a multinational collaboration.^ For study of common genetic factors in PC development, leukocyte DNA samples from an unselected series of 55 patients and 67 controls have been examined for genetic differences in two other candidate genes, the androgen receptor gene, hAR, at Xq11-12, and the vitamin D receptor gene, hVDR, at 12q12-14. hAR was typed for two trinucleotide repeat length polymorphisms, (CAG)$\rm\sb{n}$ and (GGC)$\rm\sb{n},$ encoding polyglutamine and polyglycine tracts, respectively, which have been implicated in PC susceptibility. These data, combined with similarly processed patients and controls from the U.K. show no consistent association of allele length with PC risk. A novel finding, however, has been a significant association between the number of GGC repeats and the length of time between diagnosis and relapse in stage T1-T4 Caucasian patients irrespective of therapy and age of the patient. Of 49 patients who relapsed out of 108 entering the study, those with 16 or fewer GGC repeats had an average relapse-free-period of 101 (+/$-$7.7) months while for those with more than 16 repeats the period averaged 48 (+/$-$2.9) months, a difference of 2.1 fold or 4.4 years.^ The second gene, hVDR, was genotyped at two polymorphisms, a synonymous C/T substitution in exon 9 identified by differential TaqI enzymatic digestion and a variable length polyA tract in the 3$\sp\prime$ UTR. Although these polymorphisms are in strong linkage disequilibrium only the polyA region showed a possible association with PC risk. Men homozygous for alleles with fewer than 18 A's had an increased risk (OR = 3.0, p = 0.0578) compared to controls. This result is opposite to the findings of others and may either indicate off-setting random errors which together balance out to no significant overall effect or reflect more complex genetic and/or environmental associations.^ Overall, this research suggests that single gene familial predisposition may be less prominent in PC than in other cancers and that the characteristics of PC pathology may be useful in identifying the effects of common genetic factors. ^

Ethical procedures and patient consent differ in Europe.

BACKGROUND Research ethics approvals, procedures and requirements for institutional research ethics committees vary considerably by country and by type of organisation. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the requirements and procedures of research ethics committees, details of patient information and informed consent based on a multicentre European trial. DESIGN Survey of European hospitals participating in the prospective observational study on chronic postsurgical pain (euCPSP) using electronic questionnaires. SETTING Twenty-four hospitals in 11 European countries. PARTICIPANTS From the 24 hospitals, 23 local investigators responded; 23 answers were analysed. OUTCOME MEASURES Comparison of research ethics procedures and committee requirements from the perspective of clinical researchers. Comparison of the institutions' procedures regarding patient information and consent. Description of further details such as costs and the duration of the approval process. RESULTS The approval process lasted from less than 2 weeks up to more than 2 months with financial fees varying between 0 and 575 &OV0556;. In 20 hospitals, a patient information sheet of variable length (half page up to two pages) was provided. Requirements for patients' informed consent differed. Written informed consent was mandatory at 12, oral at 10 and no form of consent at one hospital. Details such as enough time for consideration, possibility for withdrawal and risks/benefits of participation were provided in 25 to 30% of the institutions. CONCLUSION There is a considerable variation in the administrative requirements for approval procedures by research ethics committees in Europe. This results in variation of the extent of information and consent procedures for the patients involved. TRIAL REGISTRATION euCPSP in Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT01467102; PAIN-OUT in Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT02083835.

Polydnavirus of the parasitic wasp Chelonus inanitus (Braconidae): characterization, genome organization and time point of replication

Ultrastructural analysis of the polydnavirus of the braconid wasp Chelonus inanitus revealed that virions consist of one cylindrical nucleocapsid enveloped by a single unit membrane. Nucleocapsids have a constant diameter of 33.7 +/- 1.4 nm and a variable length of between 8 and 46 nm. Spreading of viral DNA showed that the genome consists of circular dsDNA molecules of variable sizes and measurement of the contour lengths indicated sizes of between 7 and 31 kbp. When virions were exposed to osmotic shock conditions to release the DNA, only one circular molecule was released per particle suggesting that the various DNA molecules are singly encapsidated in this bracovirus. The viral genome was seen to consist of at least 10 different segments and the aggregate genome size is in the order of 200 kbp. By partial digestion of viral DNA with HindIII or EcoRI in the presence of ethidium bromide and subsequent ligation with HindIII-cut pSP65 or EcoRI-cut pSP64 and transfection into Escherichia coli, libraries of 103 HindIII and 23 EcoRI clones were obtained. Southern blots revealed that complete and unrearranged segments were cloned with this approach, and restriction maps for five segments were obtained. Part of a 16.8 kbp segment was sequenced, found to be AT-rich (73%) and to contain six copies of a 17 bp repeated sequence. The development of the female reproductive tract in the course of pupal-adult development of the wasp was investigated and seen to be strictly correlated with the pigmentation pattern. By the use of a semiquantitative PCR, replication of viral DNA was observed to initiate at a specific stage of pupal-adult development.

The Austrian Glacier Inventories GI 1 (1969), GI 2 (1998), GI 3 (2006), and GI LIA in ArcGIS (shapefile) format

Glacier inventories provide the basis for further studies on mass balance and volume change, relevant for local hydrological issues as well as for global calculation of sea level rise. In this study, a new Austrian glacier inventory has been compiled, updating data from 1969 (GI 1) and 1998 (GI 2) based on high-resolution lidar digital elevation models (DEMs) and orthophotos dating from 2004 to 2012 (GI 3). To expand the time series of digital glacier inventories in the past, the glacier outlines of the Little Ice Age maximum state (LIA) have been digitalized based on the lidar DEM and orthophotos. The resulting glacier area for GI 3 of 415.11 ± 11.18 km**2 is 44% of the LIA area. The annual relative area losses are 0.3%/yr for the ~119-year period GI LIA to GI 1 with one period with major glacier advances in the 1920s. From GI 1 to GI 2 (29 years, one advance period of variable length in the 1980s) glacier area decreased by 0.6% yr?1 and from GI 2 to GI 3 (10 years, no advance period) by 1.2%/yr. Regional variability of the annual relative area loss is highest in the latest period, ranging from 0.3 to 6.19%/yr. The mean glacier size decreased from 0.69 km**2 (GI 1) to 0.46 km**2 (GI 3), with 47% of the glaciers being smaller than 0.1 km**2 in GI 3 (22%).

Impact studies from different factors on root development from Stevia rebaudiana bertoni

The demand for an alternative and a high potency sweetener to substitute sugar increases year in year out, more so as a high percentage of the world population becomes increasingly diabetic. The alternative natural sweetener at hand has been Stevia rebaudiana Bertoni, a plant species, native to Paraguay and a member of the family compositae. Stevia is usually propagated by stem cuttings due to low percentage (10 %) seed germination, thus limiting large scales cultivation. To cultivate this crop en mass therefore, there is need to evolve efficient rooting techniques. Influences of irradiation from light, and hormones on rooting have been reported. The rooting efficacy in stem cuttings of this crop under varying light wavelengths, dark and hormone factors was investigated. Evaluated parameters include- (i) day of root emergent, (ii) percentage of rooted cuttings, (iii) average number, (iv) length and (v) width, of roots. Analysis of variance at p<.05 revealed that the number, length and width, of roots differed significantly in each case at p<0.000. Light irradiation was highly effective and a necessary factor for rooting in stems cuttings of this crop. The red light-IBA combined factors served best in stem micro-cutting practice and facilitation of effective mass cultivation in stevia crop.

Paleomagnetism at DSDP Leg 85 Holes

On Leg 85, 16 holes were cored at five sites. Thirteen of the holes were cored with the hydraulic piston corer (HPC) or the variable-length hydraulic piston corer (VLHPC) or both; the remainder were rotary drilled. Partially duplicating stratigraphic sections were successfully recovered by hydraulic piston coring at Sites 572 to 575. Sub-bottom penetration was deepest (about 210 m) at HPC Hole 575A, which bottomed in lower Miocene sediments. Penetration by hydraulic piston coring was limited at all sites not by the failure of the corer to stroke out but by the excessive force (overpull) necessary to retrieve the core barrel from the hole. The sediments recovered are relatively uniform siliceous-calcareous oozes to calcareous ooze-chalks. Paleomagnetic measurements were made at all stratigraphic levels, but magnetostratigraphic sequences could be resolved only for the Pleistocene-Pliocene and for brief upper, middle, and lower Miocene sections. In the younger and less consolidated sediments, the declination often shows large-scale azimuthal rotations downcore. These smooth trends vary from core to core, indicating either rotation between the sediment and the core liner or the rotation of the core barrel during the coring or retrieval process. Thus, azimuthal orientation of the samples was impossible even though a Kuster azimuthal orientation tool was used during the hydraulic piston coring. At all sites, the downhole shift from mainly siliceous to mainly calcareous ooze-chalk coincided with a decrease in NRM intensity of at least one order of magnitude, to 1.0*10**-8 G. Diagenesis is the probable reason for this behavior, although the dilution of magnetic carriers as the result of higher accumulation rates may also be a factor. A tectonic analysis using data from samples with stable remanence indicates a northward plate motion of about 0.3 deg/m.y. during the last 18 m.y., a rate that agrees with most previous reconstructions of Pacific Plate motion.

Crack width control in RC elements with recycled steel fibres and applications to integral structures : theoretical and experimental study

El presente trabajo trata de elementos reforzados con barras de armadura y Fibras Metálicas Recicladas (FMR). El objetivo principal es mejorar el comportamiento a fisuración de elementos sometidos a flexión pura y a flexión compuesta, aumentando en consecuencia las prestaciones en servicio de aquellas estructuras con requerimientos estrictos con respecto al control de fisuración. Entre éstas últimas se encuentran las estructuras integrales, es decir aquellas estructuras sin juntas (puentes o edificios), sometidas a cargas gravitatorias y deformaciones impuestas en los elementos horizontales debidas a retracción, fluencia y temperatura. Las FMR son obtenidas a partir de los neumáticos fuera de uso, y puesto que el procedimiento de reciclado se centra en el caucho en vez que en el acero, su forma es aleatoria y con longitud variable. A pesar de que la eficacia del fibrorefuerzo mediante FMR ha sido demostrada en investigaciones anteriores, la innovación que representa este trabajo consiste en proponer la acción combinada de barras convencionales y FMR en la mejora del comportamiento a fisuración. El objetivo es por tanto mejorar la sostenibilidad del proyecto de la estructura en HA al utilizar materiales reciclados por un lado, y aumentando por el otro la durabilidad. En primer lugar, se presenta el estado del arte con respecto a la fisuración en elementos de HA, que sucesivamente se amplía a elementos reforzados con barras y fibras. Asimismo, se resume el método simplificado para el análisis de columnas de estructuras sin juntas ya propuesto por Pérez et al., con particular énfasis en aquellos aspectos que son incompatibles con la acción de las fibras a nivel seccional. A continuación, se presenta un modelo para describir la deformabilidad seccional y la fisuración en elementos en HA, que luego se amplía a aquellos elementos reforzados con barras y fibras, teniendo en cuenta también los efectos debidos a la retracción (tension stiffening negativo). El modelo es luego empleado para ampliar el método simplificado para el análisis de columnas. La aportación consiste por tanto en contar con una metodología amplia de análisis para este tipo de elementos. Seguidamente, se presenta la campaña experimental preliminar que ha involucrado vigas a escala reducida sometidas a flexión simple, con el objetivo de validar la eficiencia y la usabilidad en el hormigón de las FMR de dos diferentes tipos, y su comportamiento con respecto a fibras de acero comerciales. Se describe a continuación la campaña principal, consistente en ensayos sobre ocho vigas en flexión simple a escala 1:1 (variando contenido en FRM, Ø/s,eff y recubrimiento) y doce columnas a flexión compuesta (variando contenido en FMR, Ø/s,eff y nivel de fuerza axil). Los resultados obtenidos en la campaña principal son presentados y comentados, resaltando las mejoras obtenidas en el comportamiento a fisuración de las vigas y columnas, y la rigidez estructural de las columnas. Estos resultados se comparan con las predicciones del modelo propuesto. Los principales parámetros estudiados para describir la fisuración y el comportamiento seccional de las vigas son: la separación entre fisuras, el alargamiento medio de las armaduras y la abertura de fisura, mientras que en los ensayos de las columnas se ha contrastado las leyes momento/curvatura, la tensión en las barras de armadura y la abertura de fisura en el empotramiento en la base. La comparación muestra un buen acuerdo entre las predicciones y los resultados experimentales. Asimismo, se nota la mejora en el comportamiento a fisuración debido a la incorporación de FMR en aquellos elementos con cuantías de armadura bajas en flexión simple, en elementos con axiles bajos y para el control de la fisuración en elementos con grandes recubrimientos, siendo por tanto resultados de inmediato impacto en la práctica ingenieril (diseño de losas, tanques, estructuras integrales, etc.). VIIIComo punto final, se presentan aplicaciones de las FMR en estructuras reales. Se discuten dos casos de elementos sometidos a flexión pura, en particular una viga simplemente apoyada y un tanque para el tratamiento de agua. En ambos casos la adicción de FMR al hormigón lleva a mejoras en el comportamiento a fisuración. Luego, utilizando el método simplificado para el análisis en servicio de columnas de estructuras sin juntas, se calcula la máxima longitud admisible en casos típicos de puentes y edificación. En particular, se demuestra que las limitaciones de la práctica ingenieril actual (sobre todo en edificación) pueden ser aumentadas considerando el comportamiento real de las columnas en HA. Finalmente, los mismos casos son modificados para considerar el uso de MFR, y se presentan las mejoras tanto en la máxima longitud admisible como en la abertura de fisura para una longitud y deformación impuesta. This work deals with elements reinforced with both rebars and Recycled Steel Fibres (RSFs). Its main objective is to improve cracking behaviour of elements subjected to pure bending and bending and axial force, resulting in better serviceability conditions for these structures demanding keen crack width control. Among these structures a particularly interesting type are the so-called integral structures, i.e. long jointless structures (bridges and buildings) subjected to gravitational loads and imposed deformations due to shrinkage, creep and temperature. RSFs are obtained from End of Life Tyres, and due to the recycling process that is focused on the rubber rather than on the steel they come out crooked and with variable length. Although the effectiveness of RSFs had already been proven by previous research, the innovation of this work consists in the proposing the combined action of conventional rebars and RSFs to improve cracking behaviour. Therefore, the objective is to improve the sustainability of RC structures by, on the one hand, using recycled materials, and on the other improving their durability. A state of the art on cracking in RC elements is firstly drawn. It is then expanded to elements reinforced with both rebars and fibres (R/FRC elements). Finally, the simplified method for analysis of columns of long jointless structures already proposed by Pérez et al. is resumed, with a special focus on the points that conflict when taking into account the action of fibres. Afterwards, a model to describe sectional deformability and cracking of R/FRC elements is presented, taking also into account the effect of shrinkage (negative tension stiffening). The model is then used to implement the simplified method for columns. The novelty represented by this is that a comprehensive methodology to analyse this type of elements is presented. A preliminary experimental campaign consisting in small beams subjected to pure bending is described, with the objective of validating the effectiveness and usability in concrete of RSFs of two different types, and their behaviour when compared with commercial steel fibres. With the results and lessons learnt from this campaign in mind, the main experimental campaign is then described, consisting in cracking tests of eight unscaled beams in pure bending (varying RSF content, Ø/s,eff and concrete cover) and twelve columns subjected to imposed displacement and axial force (varying RSF content, Ø/s,eff and squashing load ratio). The results obtained from the main campaign are presented and discussed, with particular focus on the improvement in cracking behaviour for the beams and columns, and structural stiffness for the columns. They are then compared with the proposed model. The main parameters studied to describe cracking and sectional behaviours of the beam tests are crack spacing, mean steel strain and crack width, while for the column tests these were moment/curvature, stress in rebars and crack with at column embedment. The comparison showed satisfactory agreement between experimental results and model predictions. Moreover, it is pointed out the improvement in cracking behaviour due to the addition of RSF for elements with low reinforcement ratios, elements with low squashing load ratios and for crack width control of elements with large concrete covers, thus representing results with a immediate impact in engineering practice (slab design, tanks, integral structures, etc.). Applications of RSF to actual structures are finally presented. Two cases of elements in pure bending are presented, namely a simple supported beam and a water treatment tank. In both cases the addition of RSF to concrete leads to improvements in cracking behaviour. Then, using the simplified model for the serviceability analysis of columns of jointless structures, the maximum achievable jointless length of typical cases of a bridge and building is obtained. In XIIparticular, it is shown how the limitations of current engineering practice (this is especially the case of buildings) can be increased by considering the actual behaviour of RC supports. Then, the same cases are modified considering the use of RSF, and the improvements both in maximum achievable length and in crack width for a given length and imposed strain at the deck/first floor are shown.

The hexapeptide LFPWMR in Hoxb-8 is required for cooperative DNA binding with Pbx1 and Pbx2 proteins.

The Hox gene products are DNA-binding proteins, containing a homeodomain, which function as a class of master control proteins establishing the body plan in organisms as diverse as Drosophila and vertebrates. Hox proteins have recently been shown to bind cooperatively to DNA with another class of homeodomain proteins that include extradenticle, Pbx1, and Pbx2. Hox gene products contain a highly conserved hexapeptide connected by a linker of variable length to the homeodomain. We show that the hexapeptide and the linker region are required for cooperativity with Pbx1 and Pbx2 proteins. Many of the conserved residues present in the Hoxb-8 hexapeptide are required to modulate the DNA binding of the Pbx proteins. Position of the hexapeptide relative to the homeodomain is important. Although deletions of two and four residues of the linker peptide still show cooperative DNA binding, removal of all six linker residues strongly reduces cooperativity. In addition, an insertion of 10 residues within the linker peptide significantly lowers cooperative DNA binding. These results show that the hexapeptide and the position of the hexapeptide relative to the homeodomain are important determinants to allow cooperative DNA binding involving Hox and Pbx gene products.

La movilidad social de los emigrantes españoles en Europa

La migración española de la segunda mitad del siglo XX se ha caracterizado en un primer momento por su carácter masivo y poco cualificado, seguido por un interregno de procesos de retorno y finalmente por una migración estable, no masiva pero altamente cualificada. La atención prestada a la inmigración masiva que recibe España a finales del siglo XX relegó a un segundo plano esta emigración cualificada de españoles. En este artículo se considera la relación entre movilidad espacial (migración de españoles) y su posible consecuencia sobre la movilidad social ascendente que experimentan. Para ello se utilizan los datos procedentes de la encuesta internacional EIMSS (European Internal Migrations Social Survey) y los procedimientos de escalamiento de clase social basados en la ocupación de Goldthorpe. El análisis se complementa con una simulación sobre la movilidad de clase, con la finalidad de visualizar y comparar los efectos sobre la movilidad social de la emigración de españoles a Francia, Alemania, Italia y Gran Bretaña.

Forecasting Elections with High Volatility

This article uses data from the social survey Allbus 1998 to introduce a method of forecasting elections in a context of electoral volatility. The approach models the processes of change in electoral behaviour, exploring patterns in order to model the volatility expressed by voters. The forecast is based on the matrix of transition probabilities, following the logic of Markov chains. The power of the matrix, and the use of the mover-stayer model, is debated for alternative forecasts. As an example of high volatility, the model uses data from the German general election of 1998. The unification of two German states in 1990 caused the incorporation of around 15 million new voters from East Germany who had limited familiarity and no direct experience of the political culture in West Germany. Under these circumstances, voters were expected to show high volatility.

Graph-based Semi-Supervised Learning in Acoustic Modeling for Automatic Speech Recognition

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

A stochastic metapopulation model accounting for habitat dynamics

A stochastic metapopulation model accounting for habitat dynamics is presented. This is the stochastic SIS logistic model with the novel aspect that it incorporates varying carrying capacity. We present results of Kurtz and Barbour, that provide deterministic and diffusion approximations for a wide class of stochastic models, in a form that most easily allows their direct application to population models. These results are used to show that a suitably scaled version of the metapopulation model converges, uniformly in probability over finite time intervals, to a deterministic model previously studied in the ecological literature. Additionally, they allow us to establish a bivariate normal approximation to the quasi-stationary distribution of the process. This allows us to consider the effects of habitat dynamics on metapopulation modelling through a comparison with the stochastic SIS logistic model and provides an effective means for modelling metapopulations inhabiting dynamic landscapes.

Extinction times for a birth-death process with two phases

Many populations have a negative impact on their habitat or upon other species in the environment if their numbers become too large. For this reason they are often subjected to some form of control. One common control regime is the reduction regime: when the population reaches a certain threshold it is controlled (for example culled) until it falls below a lower predefined level. The natural model for such a controlled population is a birth-death process with two phases, the phase determining which of two distinct sets of birth and death rates governs the process. We present formulae for the probability of extinction and the expected time to extinction, and discuss several applications. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.