Geoadditive models for regional count data: an application to industrial location

We propose a geoadditive negative binomial model (Geo-NB-GAM) for regional count data that allows us to address simultaneously some important methodological issues, such as spatial clustering, nonlinearities, and overdispersion. This model is applied to the study of location determinants of inward greenfield investments that occurred during 2003–2007 in 249 European regions. After presenting the data set and showing the presence of overdispersion and spatial clustering, we review the theoretical framework that motivates the choice of the location determinants included in the empirical model, and we highlight some reasons why the relationship between some of the covariates and the dependent variable might be nonlinear. The subsequent section first describes the solutions proposed by previous literature to tackle spatial clustering, nonlinearities, and overdispersion, and then presents the Geo-NB-GAM. The empirical analysis shows the good performance of Geo-NB-GAM. Notably, the inclusion of a geoadditive component (a smooth spatial trend surface) permits us to control for spatial unobserved heterogeneity that induces spatial clustering. Allowing for nonlinearities reveals, in keeping with theoretical predictions, that the positive effect of agglomeration economies fades as the density of economic activities reaches some threshold value. However, no matter how dense the economic activity becomes, our results suggest that congestion costs never overcome positive agglomeration externalities.

Tests of sunspot number sequences: 3. Effects of regression procedures on the calibration of historic sunspot data

We use sunspot group observations from the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) to investigate the effects of intercalibrating data from observers with different visual acuities. The tests are made by counting the number of groups RB above a variable cut-off threshold of observed total whole-spot area (uncorrected for foreshortening) to simulate what a lower acuity observer would have seen. The synthesised annual means of RB are then re-scaled to the full observed RGO group number RA using a variety of regression techniques. It is found that a very high correlation between RA and RB (rAB > 0.98) does not prevent large errors in the intercalibration (for example sunspot maximum values can be over 30 % too large even for such levels of rAB). In generating the backbone sunspot number (RBB), Svalgaard and Schatten (2015, this issue) force regression fits to pass through the scatter plot origin which generates unreliable fits (the residuals do not form a normal distribution) and causes sunspot cycle amplitudes to be exaggerated in the intercalibrated data. It is demonstrated that the use of Quantile-Quantile (“Q  Q”) plots to test for a normal distribution is a useful indicator of erroneous and misleading regression fits. Ordinary least squares linear fits, not forced to pass through the origin, are sometimes reliable (although the optimum method used is shown to be different when matching peak and average sunspot group numbers). However, other fits are only reliable if non-linear regression is used. From these results it is entirely possible that the inflation of solar cycle amplitudes in the backbone group sunspot number as one goes back in time, relative to related solar-terrestrial parameters, is entirely caused by the use of inappropriate and non-robust regression techniques to calibrate the sunspot data.

A two-armed pattern in flickering maps of the nova-like variable UU aquarii

We report the analysis of a uniform sample of 31 light curves of the nova-like variable UU Aqr with eclipse-mapping techniques. The data were combined to derive eclipse maps of the average steady-light component, the long-term brightness changes, and the low- and high-frequency flickering components. The long-term variability responsible for the ""low-brightness`` and ""high-brightness`` states is explained in terms of the response of a viscous disk to changes of 20%-50% in the mass transfer rate from the donor star. Low- and high-frequency flickering maps are dominated by emission from two asymmetric arcs reminiscent of those seen in the outbursting dwarf nova IP Peg, and they are similarly interpreted as manifestations of a tidally induced spiral shock wave in the outer regions of a large accretion disk. The asymmetric arcs are also seen in the map of the steady light aside from the broad brightness distribution of a roughly steady-state disk. The arcs account for 25% of the steady-light flux and are a long-lasting feature in the accretion disk of UU Aqr. We infer an opening angle of 10 degrees +/- 3 degrees for the spiral arcs. The results suggest that the flickering in UU Aqr is caused by turbulence generated after the collision of disk gas with the density-enhanced spiral wave in the accretion disk.

Craniometric Similarities Within and Between Human Populations in Comparison with Neutral Genetic Data

The statement that pairs of individuals from different populations are often more genetically similar than pairs from the same population is a widespread idea inside and outside the scientific community. Witherspoon et al. [""Genetic similarities within and between human populations,"" Genetics 176:351-359 (2007)] proposed an index called the dissimilarity fraction (omega) to access in a quantitative way the validity of this statement for genetic systems. Witherspoon demonstrated that, as the number of loci increases, omega decreases to a point where, when enough sampling is available, the statement is false. In this study, we applied the dissimilarity fraction to Howells`s craniometric database to establish whether or not similar results are obtained for cranial morphological traits. Although in genetic studies thousands of loci are available, Howells`s database provides no more than 55 metric traits, making the contribution of each variable important. To cope with this limitation, we developed a routine that takes this effect into consideration when calculating. omega Contrary to what was observed for the genetic data, our results show that cranial morphology asymptotically approaches a mean omega of 0.3 and therefore supports the initial statement-that is, that individuals from the same geographic region do not form clear and discrete clusters-further questioning the idea of the existence of discrete biological clusters in the human species. Finally, by assuming that cranial morphology is under an additive polygenetic model, we can say that the population history signal of human craniometric traits presents the same resolution as a neutral genetic system dependent on no more than 20 loci.

Autoimmunity in common variable immunodeficiency

immunodeficiency (CVID), the most common symptomatic primary immunodeficiency in adulthood. Different authors report high prevalences of autoimmune diseases in CVID, and several mechanisms have been proposed to explain this apparent paradox. Genetic predisposition, under current surveillance, innate and adaptive immunity deficiencies leading to persistent/recurrent infections, variable degrees of immune dysregulation, and possible failure in central and peripheral mechanisms of tolerance induction or maintenance may all contribute to increased autoimmunity. Conclusions Data on the clinical/immunological profile of affected patients and treatment are available mostly concerning autoimmune cytopenias, the most common autoimmune diseases in CVID. Treatment is based on conventional alternatives, in association with short experience with new agents, including rituximab and infliximab. Benefits of early immunoglobulin substitutive treatment and hypothetical premature predictors of autoimmunity are discussed as potential improvements to CVID patients` follow-up.

Reduced frequency of CD4(+)CD25(HIGH)FOXP3(+) cells and diminished FOXP3 expression in patients with Common Variable Immunodeficiency: A link to autoimmunity?

Common Variable Immunodeficiency (CVID) is a primary immunodeficiency disease characterized by defective immunoglobulin production and often associated with autoimmunity. We used flow cytometry to analyze CD4(+)CD25(HIGH)FOXP3(+) T regulatory (Treg) cells and ask whether perturbations in their frequency in peripheral blood could underlie the high incidence of autoimmune disorders in CVID patients. In this study, we report for the first time that CVID patients with autoimmune disease have a significantly reduced frequency of CD4(+)CD25(HIGH)FOXP3(+) cells in their peripheral blood accompanied by a decreased intensity of FOXP3 expression. Notably, although CVID patients in whom autoimmunity was not diagnosed had a reduced frequency of CD4(+)CD25(HIGH)FOXP3(+) cells, FOXP3 expression levels did not differ from those in healthy controls. In conclusion, these data suggest compromised homeostasis of CD4(+)CD25(HIGH)FOXP3(+) cells in a subset of CVID patients with autoimmunity, and may implicate Treg cells in pathological mechanisms of CVID. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A robust Bayesian approach to null intercept measurement error model with application to dental data

Measurement error models often arise in epidemiological and clinical research. Usually, in this set up it is assumed that the latent variable has a normal distribution. However, the normality assumption may not be always correct. Skew-normal/independent distribution is a class of asymmetric thick-tailed distributions which includes the Skew-normal distribution as a special case. In this paper, we explore the use of skew-normal/independent distribution as a robust alternative to null intercept measurement error model under a Bayesian paradigm. We assume that the random errors and the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows jointly a skew-normal/independent distribution, providing an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of symmetric normal distribution in this type of model. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the skew-normal distribution, the skew-t distributions, the skew-slash distributions and the skew contaminated normal distributions. The methods developed is illustrated using a real data set from a dental clinical trial. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Paper dimensional stability in sheet-fed offset printing : Papperets dimensionsstabilitet i en arkoffsetpress

In offset printing, dampening solution is used to create a good balance in the process. If too much water is transferred to the paper, the sheet can change its size between the printing units, due to water absorption, and cause a problem with the colour register. This phenomenon is usually referred to as fanout. In this degree project, an investigation was made to see if the paper dimensions changed through its way in the sheet-fed printing process. The instrument Luchs Register Measuring Systems (Lynx) was used, and a method for measuring if the paper changed its dimensions with this instrument, was developed. Paper qualities with three different grammages were used, 90, 130 and 250 gsm. This investigation showed that all paper qualities changed their size with widening in the gripper edge in the range of 10 - 70 µm and in the trailing edge the increase was 10 - 130 µm. The elongations of the papers were in the range of 10- 300 µm. The papers with lowest grammage changed more than the heavier. To see if the print had been affected of the widening and elongation, print quality parameters like relative contrast, dot gain and mottle were correlated with the Lynx data from the sheets. The group of papers that gave correlations were in 130 gsm. The sheets had visual doubling and the combined standard deviation from the Lynx marks K3, K5 and K21 correlated with dot gain. When the variations increased so did the dot gain and this indicates that the doubling was due to the widening. There was also a correlation between the standard deviation from K3 and Mottle. The sheets widened with an average of 30 µm in the gripper edge and since there probably were doubling due to widening it also affected the Mottle values. What the widening depends on is hard to tell. Since widening was so small, it could be due to water absorption, papers being ironed out or maybe the sheets have been flattened out. It probably needs a more detailed investigation to find out what causes the widening. Further investigations about how print quality is affected by the register accuracy of a printing machine should include a print form with measuring areas close to the Lynx marks. The measuring areas should contain fine hairlines, negative text printed with at least two colours and some pictures to evaluate together with standard measuring should give a good knowledge about the subject.

Print quality study of a laboratory offset press

PAPRO operates within the Forest Research company and their mission is to develop value-addingindustry solutions. At present there are no good ways for mills to easily test the printing quality on newsprintpaper. There is a great need for a fast way to do this on different paper qualities; with a laboratory-offset press this can be both a time and money saving method. At PAPRO Forest Research, NewZealand, a laboratory offset press has been developed and designed, during the past seven years, concerningthis issue. Earlier projects were made concerning the press, e.g. to establish the optimal settings.The mission with this project was to partly determine the present variability of the print quality andto evaluate if the fountain solution, distilled water and 2% Diol green concentrate, used at the momentmixed with different percentages of Isopropanol could decrease the variability and contribute to morestabile results. Throughout the whole project the print quality showed a high variation and was evenmore variable when the Isopropanol was added. All in all 50 print rounds times twelve printed paperstrips was carried out through the project divided into three parts. To analyse the print quality, amicroscope with an image capture camera has been used. Data from the taken images was analysedand inserted into charts to see the variations.The conclusions of the whole project are not satisfying because no final evaluations were possible tomake. Main conclusions are that the additive of Isopropanol to the ordinary fountain solution, used atpresent, only contributed to more unstable results of the print quality. And it seems to be difficult toget some stable results from the lab press as long as the room where it is placed is not fully conditionedas required for the process of offset printing. And the fact that the airbrush which applies theamount of fountain solution is also variable, as shown in earlier projects, which contributes to unstableresults as well. For further work more exact parameters as a conditioned room are required and thepossibility to further design the laboratory press to use waterless offset printing instead.

What factors affect the destination choice of Jordanian tourists?A panel data analysis

This paper investigates what factors affect the destination choice for Jordanian to 8 countries (Oman, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, Yemen, Egypt, Lebanon and Bahrain) using panel data analysis. Number of outbound tourists is represented as dependent variable, which is regressed over five explanatory variables using fixed effect model. The finding of this paper is that tourists from Jordan have weak demand for outbound tourism; Jordanian decision of traveling abroad is determined by the cost of traveling to different places and choosing the cheapest alternative.

A data driven approach for automating vehicle activated signs

Vehicle activated signs (VAS) display a warning message when drivers exceed a particular threshold. VAS are often installed on local roads to display a warning message depending on the speed of the approaching vehicles. VAS are usually powered by electricity; however, battery and solar powered VAS are also commonplace. This thesis investigated devel-opment of an automatic trigger speed of vehicle activated signs in order to influence driver behaviour, the effect of which has been measured in terms of reduced mean speed and low standard deviation. A comprehen-sive understanding of the effectiveness of the trigger speed of the VAS on driver behaviour was established by systematically collecting data. Specif-ically, data on time of day, speed, length and direction of the vehicle have been collected for the purpose, using Doppler radar installed at the road. A data driven calibration method for the radar used in the experiment has also been developed and evaluated. Results indicate that trigger speed of the VAS had variable effect on driv-ers’ speed at different sites and at different times of the day. It is evident that the optimal trigger speed should be set near the 85th percentile speed, to be able to lower the standard deviation. In the case of battery and solar powered VAS, trigger speeds between the 50th and 85th per-centile offered the best compromise between safety and power consump-tion. Results also indicate that different classes of vehicles report differ-ences in mean speed and standard deviation; on a highway, the mean speed of cars differs slightly from the mean speed of trucks, whereas a significant difference was observed between the classes of vehicles on lo-cal roads. A differential trigger speed was therefore investigated for the sake of completion. A data driven approach using Random forest was found to be appropriate in predicting trigger speeds respective to types of vehicles and traffic conditions. The fact that the predicted trigger speed was found to be consistently around the 85th percentile speed justifies the choice of the automatic model.

Harmonization Of Vocabularies For Water Data

Observational data encodes values of properties associated with a feature of interest, estimated by a specified procedure. For water the properties are physical parameters like level, volume, flow and pressure, and concentrations and counts of chemicals, substances and organisms. Water property vocabularies have been assembled at project, agency and jurisdictional level. Organizations such as EPA, USGS, CEH, GA and BoM maintain vocabularies for internal use, and may make them available externally as text files. BODC and MMI have harvested many water vocabularies alongside others of interest in their domain, formalized the content using SKOS, and published them through web interfaces. Scope is highly variable both within and between vocabularies. Individual items may conflate multiple concerns (e.g. property, instrument, statistical procedure, units). There is significant duplication between vocabularies. Semantic web technologies provide the opportunity both to publish vocabularies more effectively, and achieve harmonization to support greater interoperability between datasets. - Models for vocabulary items (property, substance/taxon, process, unit-of-measure, etc) may be formalized OWL ontologies, supporting semantic relations between items in related vocabularies; - By specializing the ontology elements from SKOS concepts and properties, diverse vocabularies may be published through a common interface; - Properties from standard vocabularies (e.g. OWL, SKOS, PROV-O and VAEM) support mappings between vocabularies having a similar scope - Existing items from various sources may be assembled into new virtual vocabularies However, there are a number of challenges: - use of standard properties such as sameAs/exactMatch/equivalentClass require reasoning support; - items have been conceptualised as both classes and individuals, complicating the mapping mechanics; - re-use of items across vocabularies may conflict with expectations concerning URI patterns; - versioning complicates cross-references and re-use. This presentation will discuss ways to harness semantic web technologies to publish harmonized vocabularies, and will summarise how many of the challenges may be addressed.

Meteomap: Generation Of Meteorological Variables For Distributed Physically-Based Hydrological Modeling

Distributed energy and water balance models require time-series surfaces of the meteorological variables involved in hydrological processes. Most of the hydrological GIS-based models apply simple interpolation techniques to extrapolate the point scale values registered at weather stations at a watershed scale. In mountainous areas, where the monitoring network ineffectively covers the complex terrain heterogeneity, simple geostatistical methods for spatial interpolation are not always representative enough, and algorithms that explicitly or implicitly account for the features creating strong local gradients in the meteorological variables must be applied. Originally developed as a meteorological pre-processing tool for a complete hydrological model (WiMMed), MeteoMap has become an independent software. The individual interpolation algorithms used to approximate the spatial distribution of each meteorological variable were carefully selected taking into account both, the specific variable being mapped, and the common lack of input data from Mediterranean mountainous areas. They include corrections with height for both rainfall and temperature (Herrero et al., 2007), and topographic corrections for solar radiation (Aguilar et al., 2010). MeteoMap is a GIS-based freeware upon registration. Input data include weather station records and topographic data and the output consists of tables and maps of the meteorological variables at hourly, daily, predefined rainfall event duration or annual scales. It offers its own pre and post-processing tools, including video outlook, map printing and the possibility of exporting the maps to images or ASCII ArcGIS formats. This study presents the friendly user interface of the software and shows some case studies with applications to hydrological modeling.

The impact of OFDI on economic growth countries. An econometric approach using panel data and time-series evidence

The thesis at hand adds to the existing literature by investigating the relationship between economic growth and outward foreign direct investments (OFDI) on a set of 16 emerging countries. Two different econometric techniques are employed: a panel data regression analysis and a time-series causality analysis. Results from the regression analysis indicate a positive and significant correlation between OFDI and economic growth. Additionally, the coefficient for the OFDI variable is robust in the sense specified by the Extreme Bound Analysis (EBA). On the other hand, the findings of the causality analysis are particularly heterogeneous. The vector autoregression (VAR) and the vector error correction model (VECM) approaches identify unidirectional Granger causality running either from OFDI to GDP or from GDP to OFDI in six countries. In four economies causality among the two variables is bidirectional, whereas in five countries no causality relationship between OFDI and GDP seems to be present.

Invariant tests in an instrumental variables model with unknown data generating process

In this work we focus on tests for the parameter of an endogenous variable in a weakly identi ed instrumental variable regressionmodel. We propose a new unbiasedness restriction for weighted average power (WAP) tests introduced by Moreira and Moreira (2013). This new boundary condition is motivated by the score e ciency under strong identi cation. It allows reducing computational costs of WAP tests by replacing the strongly unbiased condition. This latter restriction imposes, under the null hypothesis, the test to be uncorrelated to a given statistic with dimension given by the number of instruments. The new proposed boundary condition only imposes the test to be uncorrelated to a linear combination of the statistic. WAP tests under both restrictions to perform similarly numerically. We apply the di erent tests discussed to an empirical example. Using data from Yogo (2004), we assess the e ect of weak instruments on the estimation of the elasticity of inter-temporal substitution of a CCAPM model.