Mineralogy of selected geological deposits from the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland as possible capping materials for low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities

Solid low-level radioactive waste (LLW) is currently being disposed at a number of facilities in the United Kingdom (UK). The safety of these facilities relies to some extent on the use of engineered barriers, such as a cap, to isolate the waste and protect the environment. Generally, the material used as the barrier layer within such a cap should be of low permeability and it should retain this property over long timescales (beyond a few decades normally required for facilities containing non-radioactive wastes). The objective of this research is to determine the mineralogy of selected geological deposits from the UK and Ireland as part of a larger project to examine their suitability as a capping material, particularly on LLW sites. Mineral transformations, as a result of future climate change, may impact on the long-term performance of the cap and even the disposal facility. X-ray diffraction (XRD) was carried-out on the sand, silt and clay fractions of the London Clay, Belfast Upper Boulder Clay, Irish Glacial Till, Belfast Sleech, and Ampthill Clay geological deposits. Minerals were present that could pose both positive and negative effects on the long-term performance of the cap. Smectite, which has a high shrink swell potential, may produce cracks in London Clay, Belfast Upper Boulder Clay and Ampthill Clay capping material during dry, hotter periods as a possible consequence of future climate change; thus, resulting in higher permeability. Ampthill Clay and Belfast Sleech had elevated amounts of organic matter (OM) at 5.93% and 5.88%, respectively, which may also contribute to cracking. Over time, this OM may decompose and result in increased permeability. Gypsum (CaSO4) in the silt and sand fractions of Ampthill Clay may reduce the impact of erosion during wetter periods if it is incorporated into the upper portion of the cap. There are potential negative effects from the acidity created by the weathering of pyrite (FeS2) present in the silt and sand fractions of Belfast Sleech and Ampthill Clay that could impede the growth of grasses used to stabilize the surface of the capping material if this material is used as part of the vegetative soil layer. Additionally, acidic waters generated from pyrite weathering could negatively impact the lower lying capping layers and the disposal facility in general. However, the calcium carbonate (CaCO3) present in the silt and sand fractions of these deposits, and dolomite (CaMg(CO3)2) in Belfast Sleech, may counter act the acidity.

Palaeoclimate change recorded in Upper Cretaceous (Albian-Cenomanian) Kazhdumi Formation Borehole spectral Gamma-Ray Logs, South Pars Gas field, Persian Gulf

Th/U and Th/K data from spectral gamma-ray logs obtained from outcrop successions have been used as a rapid and inexpensive proxy for determining possible episodes of humid-arid palaeoclimate change. Such outcrop-based measurements have never been tested using spectral gamma-ray data obtained from wireline logs in subsurface boreholes. Th/K and Th/U ratios have traditionally been used to decipher sequence stratigraphic patterns, at outcrop and in borehole. The possible influence of palaeoclimate on such ratio changes has yet to be proven, especially from borehole data. In this work, we compare borehole-derived Th/K (and to a lesser extent Th/U) to palaeoenvironmental changes inferred from palynology and deduce that both sea level and changing hinterland weathering regimes caused discrete fluctuations observed in the spectral gamma-ray logs. This is the first time such subsurface information has been used in this way. Interpretation of wireline logs in terms of palaeoclimate as well as sea level may now be considered, and the use of such logs in palaeoclimate reconstruction is strengthened.

Isolation basin records of late Quaternary sea-level change, central mainland British Columbia, Canada.

Isolation basin records from the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex, a remote area of central mainland British Columbia, Canada are used to constrain post-glacial sea-level changes and provide a preliminary basis for testing geophysical model predictions of relative sea-level (RSL) change. Sedimentological and diatom data from three low-lying (<4 m elevation) basins record falling RSLs in late-glacial times and isolation from the sea by ~11,800–11,200 14C BP. A subsequent RSL rise during the early Holocene (~8000 14C BP) breached the 2.13 m sill of the lowest basin (Woods Lake), but the two more elevated basins (sill elevations of ~3.6 m) remained isolated. At ~2400 14C BP, RSL stood at 1.49 ± 0.34 m above present MTL. Falling RSLs in the late Holocene led to the final emergence of the Woods Lake basin by 1604 ± 36 14C BP. Model predictions generated using the ICE-5G model partnered with a small number of different Earth viscosity models generally show poor agreement with the observational data, indicating that the ice model and/or Earth models considered can be improved upon. The best data-model fits were achieved with relatively low values of upper mantle viscosity (5 × 1019 Pa s), which is consistent with previous modelling results from the region. The RSL data align more closely with observational records from the southeast of the region (eastern Vancouver Island, central Strait of Georgia), than the immediate north (Bella Bella–Bella Coola and Prince Rupert-Kitimat) and areas to the north-west (Queen Charlotte Sound, Hecate Strait), underlining the complexity of the regional response to glacio-isostatic recovery.

Tele-Supervised FES-Assisted Exercise for Hemiplegic Upper Limb

Stroke survivors often have upper limb (UL) hemiparesis, limiting their ability to perform activities of daily life (ADLs). Intensive, task-oriented exercise therapy (ET) can improve UL function, but motivation to perform sufficient ET is difficult to maintain. Here we report on a trial in which a workstation was deployed in the homes of chronic stroke survivors to enable tele-coaching of ET in the guise of computer games. Participants performed 6 weeks of 1 hour/day, 5 days/week ET. Hand opening and grasp were assisted with functional electrical stimulation (FES). The primary outcome measure was the Action Research Arm Test (ARAT). Secondary outcome measures included a quantitative test of UL function performed on the workstation, grasp force measurements and transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS). Improvements were seen in the functional tests, but surprisingly, not in the TMS responses. An important finding was that participants commencing with intermediate functional scores improved the most.

CONCLUSIONS: 1) Daily, tele-supervised FES-ET in chronic stroke survivors is feasible with commercially-available technology. 2) The intervention can significantly improve UL function, particularly in people who start with an intermediate level of function. 3) Significant improvements in UL function can occur in the absence of changes in TMS responses.

Implementing the OPTIMAL model : the impact on students' motivation in an elementary school games environment

Optimal challenge occurs when an individual perceives the challenge of the task to be equaled or matched by his or her own skill level (Csikszentmihalyi, 1990). The purpose of this study was to test the impact of the OPTIMAL model on physical education students' motivation and perceptions of optimal challenge across four games categories (i. e. target, batting/fielding, net/wall, invasion). Enjoyment, competence, student goal orientation and activity level were examined in relation to the OPTIMAL model. A total of 22 (17 M; 5 F) students and their parents provided informed consent to take part in the study and were taught four OPTIMAL lessons and four non-OPTIMAL lessons ranging across the four different games categories by their own teacher. All students completed the Task and Ego in Sport Questionnaire (TEOSQ; Duda & Whitehead, 1998), the Intrinsic Motivation Inventory (IMI; McAuley, Duncan, & Tanmien, 1987) and the Children's Perception of Optimal Challenge Instrument (CPOCI; Mandigo, 2001). Sixteen students (two each lesson) were observed by using the System for Observing Fitness Instruction Time tool (SOFTT; McKenzie, 2002). As well, they participated in a structured interview which took place after each lesson was completed. Quantitative results concluded that no overall significant difference was found in motivational outcomes when comparing OPTIMAL and non-OPTIMAL lessons. However, when the lessons were broken down into games categories, significant differences emerged. Levels of perceived competence were found to be higher in non-OPTIMAL batting/fielding lessons compared to OPTIMAL lessons, whereas levels of enjoyment and perceived competence were found to be higher in OPTIMAL invasion lessons in comparison to non-OPTIMAL invasion lessons. Qualitative results revealed significance in feehngs of skill/challenge balance, enjoyment and competence in the OPTIMAL lessons. Moreover, a significance of practically twice the active movement time percentage was found in OPTIMAL lessons in comparison to non-OPTIMAL lessons.

A classroom-based investigation of reciprocal teaching at the grade seven level

This study assessed the effectiveness of a reciprocal teaching program as a method of teaching reading comprehension, using narrative text material in a t.ypical grade seven classroom. In order to determine the effectiveness of the reciprocal teaching program, this method was compared to two other reading instruction approaches that, unlike rcciprocal teaching, did not include social interaction components. Two intact grade scven classes, and a grade seven teacher, participated in this study. Students were appropriately assigned to three treatment groups by reading achievement level as determined from a norm-referenced test. Training proceeded for a five week intervention period during regularly scheduled English periods. Throughout the program curriculum-based tests were administered. These tests were designed to assess comprehension in two distinct ways; namely, character analysis components as they relate to narrative text, and strategy use components as they contribute to student understanding of narrative and expository text. Pre, post, and maintenance tests were administered to measure overall training effects. Moreover, during intervention, training probes were administered in the last period of each week to evaluate treatment group performance. AU curriculum-based tests were coded and comparisons of pre, post, maintenance tests and training probes were presented in graph form. Results showed that the reciprocal group achieved some improvement in reading comprehension scores in the strategy use component of the tests. No improvements were observed for the character analysis components of the curriculum-based tests and the norm-referenced tests. At pre and post intervention, interviews requiring students to respond to questions that addressed metacomprehension awareness of study strategies were administered. The intelviews were coded and comparisons were made between the two intelVicws. No significant improvements were observed regarding student awareness of ten identified study strategies . This study indicated that reciprocal teaching is a viable approach that can be utilized to help students acquire more effective comprehension strategies. However, the maximum utility of the technique when administered to a population of grade seven students performing at average to above average levels of reading achievement has yet to be determined. In order to explore this issue, the refinement of training materials and curriculum-based measurements need to be explored. As well, this study revealed that reciprocal teaching placed heavier demands on the classroom teacher when compared to other reading instruction methods. This may suggest that innovative and intensive teacher training techniques are required before it is feasible to use this method in the classroom.

Trilobites of the Upper Cambrian (Marjuman) Pika formation of the Southern Canadian Rocky Mountains

The Upper Cambrian Pika Formation in the southern Canadian Rocky Mountains forms a complete lithologic Grand Cycle. The overall pattern of deposition is one of shallowing upwards from a subtidal, muddy, storm-influenced basin to a shallow carbonate bank. The Pika passes gradationally into the overlying inter- to supratidal siliciclastics of the Arctomys Formation. This transition probably reflects a fall in relative sea level. 2 Twenty seven collections from three sections yielded trilobites. The faunas are assigned to two low-diversity biofacies: the Marjumia - Spencella Biofacies and the GZyphaspis - menomoniid Biofacies. In contrast to biofacies of deeper, open-shelf environments, such as the Wheeler and Marjum formations of Utah, the Pika biofacies lack agnostid trilobites. Consequently, agnostid-based zonations defined elsewhere in North America cannot be applied to the Pika and a new sequence of three zones and one informal fauna is proposed for use in inner shelf facies. Eleven species belonging to six genera are described and illustrated. The species Marjumia bagginsi is new. Other genera present are: Bolaspidella, Knechtelia, GZyphaspis and Spencella, in addition to a number of indeterminate forms

Anxiety in the Primary Classroom: A Handbook for Elementary Educators

This project presents a literature review of pediatric anxiety including the prevalence, etiology, and treatment of anxiety disorders in children, presented along with evidence indicating the short- and long-term effects of anxiety in young children, and the important role of the school in first response regarding the early identification and intervention for these children. A needs assessment was conducted using primary elementary school teachers to identify their level of confidence in their ability to identify and support children suffering with anxiety disorders in their classrooms. Results of the assessment indicated a strong need for a resource that provides both information and support for teachers in their interactions with children with anxiety disorders. The assessment results were used to guide the development of a handbook for elementary educators providing current empirical research detailing information about various forms of anxiety disorders commonly affecting young children in primary grades, as well as a list of available resources, and a series of six sequential lesson plans to be implemented for the entire class. Lesson plans are designed to facilitate increased levels of understanding toward the issues confronted by children suffering from anxiety, and fostering strong peer relations and character-building opportunities. Participants were provided with the handbook for evaluation, which indicated a strong support for the effectiveness and usefulness of the resource.

Associations between area-level unemployment, body mass index, and risk factors for cardiovascular disease in an urban area

INTRODUCTION: Il existe peu d’évidences sur l’association entre le taux de chômage dans le milieu résidentiel (CR) et le risque de maladies cardiovasculaires parmi les résidents de milieux urbains. De plus, on ne sait pas si ce lien diffère entre les deux sexes. Cette thèse a pour objectif de déterminer la direction et la taille de l’association entre le CR et le risque de maladies cardiovasculaires, et d’examiner si cette association varie en fonction du sexe. MÉTHODES: Un sous-échantillon de 342 participants de l’Étude sur les habitudes de vie et la santé dans les quartiers montréalais a rapporté ses habitudes de vie et sa situation socio-économique. Des mesures biologiques et anthropométriques ont été recueillies par une infirmière. Le CR a été opérationnalisé en fonction d’une zone-tampon d’un rayon de 250 m centrée sur la résidence de chacun des participants à l’aide d’un Système d’Information Géographique (SIG). Des équations d’estimation généralisées ont été utilisées afin d’estimer l’association entre le CR et l’Indice de Masse Corporelle (IMC) et un score cumulatif de Risque Cardio-métabolique (RC) représentant la présence de valeurs élevées de cholestérol total, de triglycérides, de lipoprotéines de haute densité et d’hémoglobine glyquée. RÉSULTATS: Après ajustement pour l’âge, le sexe, le tabagisme, les comportements de santé et le statut socio-économique, le fait de vivre dans un endroit classé dans le 3e ou 4e quartile de CR était associé avec un IMC plus élevé (beta pour Q4 = 2.1 kg/m2, IC 95%: 1.02-3.20; beta pour Q3 = 1.5 kg/m2, IC 95%: 0.55-2.47) et un taux plus élevé de risque cardiovasculaires Risque Relatif [RR pour Q4 = 1.82 (IC 95 %: 1.35-2.44); RR pour Q3 = 1.66 (IC 95%: 1.33-2.06)] par rapport au 1er quartile. L'interaction entre le sexe et le CR révèle une différence absolue d’IMC de 1.99 kg/m2 (IC 95%: 0.00-4.01) et un risque supérieur (RR=1.39; IC 95%: 1.06-1.81) chez les femmes par rapport aux hommes. CONCLUSIONS: Le taux de chômage dans le milieux résidentiel est associé à un plus grand risque de maladies cardiovasculaires, mais cette association est plus prononcée chez les femmes.

Elementary steps in aqueous proton transfer reactions : a first principles molecular dynamics study

La nature des acides dans un environnement aqueux est primordiale dans de nombreux aspects de la chimie et de la biologie. La caractéristique principale d'un acide est sa capacité à transférer un proton vers une molécule d'eau ou vers n'importe quelle base, mais ce procédé n'est pas aussi simple qu'il y paraît. Il peut au contraire être extrêmement complexe et dépendre de manière cruciale de la solvatation des différents intermédiaires de réaction impliqués. Cette thèse décrit les études computationnelles basées sur des simulations de dynamique moléculaire ab initio qui ont pour but d'obtenir une description à l'échelle moléculaire des divers procédés de transferts de proton entre acide et bases dans un milieu aqueux. Pour cela, nous avons étudié une serie de système, dont l'acide hydrofluorique aqueux, l'acide trifluoroacétique aqueux, et un système modèle constitué d'un phénol et d'une entité carboxylate reliés entre eux par une molécule d'eau en solution aqueuse. Deux états intermédiaires ont été identifiés pour le transfert d'un proton depuis un acide. Ces intermédiaires apparaissent stabilisés par un motif local de solvatation via des ponts H. Leurs signatures spectroscopiques ont été caractérisées au moyen de la spectroscopie infrarouge, en utilisant le formalisme de la dynamique moléculaire ab initio, qui inclut l'effet quantique nucléaire de manière explicite. Cette étude a aussi identifié trois chemins de réaction élémentaire, qui sont responsable pour le transfert d'un proton d'un acide à une base, ainsi que leurs échelles de temps caractéristiques. Les conclusions tirées de ces études sont discutées dans les détails, au niveau moléculaire, avec une emphase sur les comparaisons entre les résultats théoriques et les mesures expérimentales obtenues dans a littérature ou via des collaborateurs.

A qualitative study of curriculum and instructional efforts in relation to high stakes federal and district policies in one low-performing elementary school

Les enjeux liés aux politiques éducatives ont considérablement changé au cours des dernières décennies. Ces changements sont liés, entre autres, à l’accroissement de l’imputabilité et de la reddition de compte qui est devenue une caractéristique importante des réformes curriculaires et pédagogiques. Les politiques à enjeux élevés exercent une pression énorme sur les districts et les écoles états-unienne afin qu’ils augmentent le rendement des élèves en utilisant des systèmes de conséquences (Hall & Ryan, 2011; Loeb & Strunk, 2007). Ces politiques envoient de puissants messages sur l'importance de certaines matières scolaires au détriment d'autres - circonscrivant les exigences en termes de compétences et de connaissances. La langue maternelle d’enseignement et les mathématiques sont devenues des mesures centrales sur lesquelles reposent l’évaluation et le degré de performance des districts et des écoles. Conséquemment, les administrateurs de districts et les directions d’écoles ont souvent recours à des réformes curriculaires et pédagogiques comme moyen d'augmenter le rendement des élèves dans les matières scolaires visées par ces politiques. Les politiques contraignent les acteurs scolaires de concentrer les ressources sur les programmes curriculaires et les évaluations, le développement professionnel, et la prise de décision pilotée par les données (Anagnostopoulos & Ruthledge, 2007; Honig & Hatch, 2004; Spillane, Diamond, et al., 2002; Weitz White & Rosenbaum, 2008). Cette thèse examine la manière dont les politiques à enjeux élevés opèrent quotidiennement dans les interactions et les pratiques au sein des écoles. Nous analysons plus particulièrement les différents messages provenant de la politique transmis aux acteurs scolaires sur les manières d'apporter des changements substantiels dans le curriculum et l'enseignement. Nous élargissons l’analyse en prenant en compte le rôle des administrateurs de district ainsi que des partenaires universitaires qui façonnent également la manière dont certains aspects des messages provenant des politiques sont transmis, négociés et/ou débattus et d’autres sont ignorés (Coburn & Woulfin, 2012). En utilisant l’analyse de discours, nous examinons le rôle du langage comme constituant et médiateur des interactions sociales entre les acteurs scolaires et d’autres parties prenantes. De telles analyses impliquent une investigation approfondie d’un nombre d’étude de cas limité. Les données utilisées dans cette thèse ont été colligées dans une école primaire états-unienne du mid-West. Cette étude de cas fait partie d’une étude longitudinale de quatre ans qui comprenait huit écoles dans les milieux urbains entre 1999 et 2003 (Distributed Leadership Studies, http://www.distributedleadership.org). La base de données analysée inclut des observations de réunions formelles et des entrevues auprès des administrateurs du district, des partenaires universitaires, de la direction d’école et des enseignants. En plus de l’introduction et de la problématique (chapitre 1) et de discussion et conclusion (chapitre 5), cette thèse comprend un ensemble de trois articles interdépendants. Dans le premier article (chapitre 2), nous effectuons une recension des écrits portant sur le domaine de l’implantation de politiques (policy implementation) et la complexité des relations locales, nationales et internationales dans les systèmes éducatifs. Pour démystifier cette complexité, nous portons une attention particulière à la construction de sens des acteurs scolaires comme étant une dimension clé du processus de mise en œuvre des réformes. Dans le deuxième article (chapitre 3), nous cherchons à comprendre les processus sociaux qui façonnent les réponses stratégiques des acteurs scolaires à l’égard des politiques du district et de l’état et en lien avec la mise en œuvre d’un curriculum prescrit en mathématiques. Plus particulièrement, nous explorons les différentes situations dans lesquelles les acteurs scolaires argumentent au sujet des changements curriculaires et pédagogiques proposés par les administrateurs de district et des partenaires universitaires afin d’augmenter les résultats scolaires en mathématiques dans une école à faible performance. Dans le troisième article (chapitre 4), nous cherchons à démystifier les complexités liées à l’amélioration de l’enseignement dans un environnement de politiques à enjeux élevés. Pour ce faire, nous utilisons l'interaction entre les notions d'agentivité et la structure afin d'analyser la manière dont les conceptions d’imputabilité et les idées qui découlent de l'environnement politique et les activités quotidiennes jouent dans les interactions entre les acteurs scolaires concernant sur l’enseignement de la langue maternelle. Nous explorons trois objectifs spécifiques : 1) la manière dont les politiques à enjeux élevés façonnent les éléments de l’enseignement qui sont reproduits et ceux qui sont transformés au fil du temps ; 2) la manière dont la compréhension des leaders de l’imputabilité façonne les aspects des messages politiques que les acteurs scolaires remarquent à travers les interactions et les conversations et 3) la manière les acteurs scolaires portent une attention particulière à certaines messages au détriment d’autres. Dans le dernier chapitre de cette thèse, nous discutons les forces et les limites de l’analyse secondaire de données qualitatives, les implications des résultats pour le domaine d’études de l’implantation de politiques et les pistes futures de recherches.

Analysis of water-level response to rainfall and implications for recharge pathways in the Chalk aquifer, SE England

Water table response to rainfall was investigated at six sites in the Upper, Middle and Lower Chalk of southern England. Daily time series of rainfall and borehole water level were cross-corretated to investigate seasonal variations in groundwater-level response times, based on periods of 3-month duration. The time tags (in days) yielding significant correlations were compared with the average unsaturated zone thickness during each 3-month period. In general, for cases when the unsaturated zone was greater than 18 m thick, the time tag for a significant water-level response increased rapidly once the depth to the water table exceeded a critical value, which varied from site to site. For shallower water tables, a linear relationship between the depth to the water table and the water-level response time was evident. The observed variations in response time can only be partially accounted for using a diffusive model for propagation through the unsaturated matrix, suggesting that some fissure flow was occurring. The majority of rapid responses were observed during the winter/spring recharge period, when the unsaturated zone is thinnest and the unsaturated zone moisture content is highest, and were more likely to occur when the rainfall intensity exceeded 5 mm/day. At some sites, a very rapid response within 24 h of rainfall was observed in addition to the longer term responses even when the unsaturated zone was up to 64 m thick. This response was generally associated with the autumn period. The results of the cross-correlation analysis provide statistical support for the presence of fissure flow and for the contribution of multiple pathways through the unsaturated zone to groundwater recharge. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recorded quadrant incidence of female breast cancer in Great Britain suggests a disproportionate increase in the upper outer quadrant of the breast

Background: The upper outer quadrant (UOQ) of the breast is the most frequent site for incidence of breast cancel; but the reported disproportionate incidence in this quadrant appears to rise with year of publication. Materials and Methods: In order to determine whether this increasing incidence in the UOQ is an artifact of different study populations or is chronological, data have been analysed for annual quadrant incidence of female breast cancer recorded nationally in England and Wales between 1979 and 2000 and in Scotland between 1980 and 2001. Results: In England and Wales, the recorded incidence of female breast cancer in the UOQ rose front 47.9% in 1979 to 53.3% in 2000, and has done so linearly over tune with a con-elation coefficient R of +/- 0.71 +/- SD 0.01 (p < 0.001). Analysis of independent data front Scotland showed a similar trend in that recorded female breast cancer had also increased in the UOQ from 38.3% in 1980 to 54.7% in 2001, with a con-elation coefficient R for the linear annual increase of +0.80 +/- SD 0.03 (p < 0.001). Conclusion: These results are inconsistent with current views that the high level of UOQ breast cancer is due solely to a greater amount of target epithelial tissue in that region. Identification of the reasons for such a disproportionate site-specific increase could provide clues as to causative factors in breast cancer.

Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty

Global climate change results from a small yet persistent imbalance between the amount of sunlight absorbed by Earth and the thermal radiation emitted back to space. An apparent inconsistency has been diagnosed between interannual variations in the net radiation imbalance inferred from satellite measurements and upper-ocean heating rate from in situ measurements, and this inconsistency has been interpreted as ‘missing energy’ in the system. Here we present a revised analysis of net radiation at the top of the atmosphere from satellite data, and we estimate ocean heat content, based on three independent sources. We find that the difference between the heat balance at the top of the atmosphere and upper-ocean heat content change is not statistically significant when accounting for observational uncertainties in ocean measurements, given transitions in instrumentation and sampling. Furthermore, variability in Earth’s energy imbalance relating to El Niño-Southern Oscillation is found to be consistent within observational uncertainties among the satellite measurements, a reanalysis model simulation and one of the ocean heat content records. We combine satellite data with ocean measurements to depths of 1,800 m, and show that between January 2001 and December 2010, Earth has been steadily accumulating energy at a rate of 0.50±0.43 Wm−2 (uncertainties at the 90% confidence level). We conclude that energy storage is continuing to increase in the sub-surface ocean.

Understanding and projecting sea level change

There is intense scientific and public interest in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of sea level for the twenty-first century and beyond. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) projections, obtained by applying standard methods to the results of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Experiment, includes estimates of ocean thermal expansion, the melting of glaciers and ice caps (G&ICs), increased melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and increased precipitation over Greenland and Antarctica, partially offsetting other contributions. The AR4 recognized the potential for a rapid dynamic ice sheet response but robust methods for quantifying it were not available. Illustrative scenarios suggested additional sea level rise on the order of 10 to 20 cm or more, giving a wide range in the global averaged projections of about 20 to 80 cm by 2100. Currently, sea level is rising at a rate near the upper end of these projections. Since publication of the AR4 in 2007, biases in historical ocean temperature observations have been identified and significantly reduced, resulting in improved estimates of ocean thermal expansion. Models that include all climate forcings are in good agreement with these improved observations and indicate the importance of stratospheric aerosol loadings from volcanic eruptions. Estimates of the volumes of G&ICs and their contributions to sea level rise have improved. Results from recent (but possibly incomplete) efforts to develop improved ice sheet models should be available for the 2013 IPCC projections. Improved understanding of sea level rise is paving the way for using observations to constrain projections. Understanding of the regional variations in sea level change as a result of changes in ocean properties, wind-stress patterns, and heat and freshwater inputs into the ocean is improving. Recently, estimates of sea level changes resulting from changes in Earth's gravitational field and the solid Earth response to changes in surface loading have been included in regional projections. While potentially valuable, semi-empirical models have important limitations, and their projections should be treated with caution