933 resultados para transverse stochastic cooling
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The geometry and connectivity of fractures exert a strong influence on the flow and transport properties of fracture networks. We present a novel approach to stochastically generate three-dimensional discrete networks of connected fractures that are conditioned to hydrological and geophysical data. A hierarchical rejection sampling algorithm is used to draw realizations from the posterior probability density function at different conditioning levels. The method is applied to a well-studied granitic formation using data acquired within two boreholes located 6 m apart. The prior models include 27 fractures with their geometry (position and orientation) bounded by information derived from single-hole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data acquired during saline tracer tests and optical televiewer logs. Eleven cross-hole hydraulic connections between fractures in neighboring boreholes and the order in which the tracer arrives at different fractures are used for conditioning. Furthermore, the networks are conditioned to the observed relative hydraulic importance of the different hydraulic connections by numerically simulating the flow response. Among the conditioning data considered, constraints on the relative flow contributions were the most effective in determining the variability among the network realizations. Nevertheless, we find that the posterior model space is strongly determined by the imposed prior bounds. Strong prior bounds were derived from GPR measurements and helped to make the approach computationally feasible. We analyze a set of 230 posterior realizations that reproduce all data given their uncertainties assuming the same uniform transmissivity in all fractures. The posterior models provide valuable statistics on length scales and density of connected fractures, as well as their connectivity. In an additional analysis, effective transmissivity estimates of the posterior realizations indicate a strong influence of the DFN structure, in that it induces large variations of equivalent transmissivities between realizations. The transmissivity estimates agree well with previous estimates at the site based on pumping, flowmeter and temperature data.
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First: A continuous-time version of Kyle's model (Kyle 1985), known as the Back's model (Back 1992), of asset pricing with asymmetric information, is studied. A larger class of price processes and of noise traders' processes are studied. The price process, as in Kyle's model, is allowed to depend on the path of the market order. The process of the noise traders' is an inhomogeneous Lévy process. Solutions are found by the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations. With the insider being risk-neutral, the price pressure is constant, and there is no equilibirium in the presence of jumps. If the insider is risk-averse, there is no equilibirium in the presence of either jumps or drifts. Also, it is analised when the release time is unknown. A general relation is established between the problem of finding an equilibrium and of enlargement of filtrations. Random announcement time is random is also considered. In such a case the market is not fully efficient and there exists equilibrium if the sensitivity of prices with respect to the global demand is time decreasing according with the distribution of the random time. Second: Power variations. it is considered, the asymptotic behavior of the power variation of processes of the form _integral_0^t u(s-)dS(s), where S_ is an alpha-stable process with index of stability 0&alpha&2 and the integral is an Itô integral. Stable convergence of corresponding fluctuations is established. These results provide statistical tools to infer the process u from discrete observations. Third: A bond market is studied where short rates r(t) evolve as an integral of g(t-s)sigma(s) with respect to W(ds), where g and sigma are deterministic and W is the stochastic Wiener measure. Processes of this type are particular cases of ambit processes. These processes are in general not of the semimartingale kind.
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There are many factors that influence the day-ahead market bidding strategies of a generation company (GenCo) in the current energy market framework. Environmental policy issues have become more and more important for fossil-fuelled power plants and they have to be considered in their management, giving rise to emission limitations. This work allows to investigate the influence of both the allowances and emission reduction plan, and the incorporation of the derivatives medium-term commitments in the optimal generation bidding strategy to the day-ahead electricity market. Two different technologies have been considered: the coal thermal units, high-emission technology, and the combined cycle gas turbine units, low-emission technology. The Iberian Electricity Market and the Spanish National Emissions and Allocation Plans are the framework to deal with the environmental issues in the day-ahead market bidding strategies. To address emission limitations, some of the standard risk management methodologies developed for financial markets, such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), have been extended. This study offers to electricity generation utilities a mathematical model to determinate the individual optimal generation bid to the wholesale electricity market, for each one of their generation units that maximizes the long-run profits of the utility abiding by the Iberian Electricity Market rules, the environmental restrictions set by the EU Emission Trading Scheme, as well as the restrictions set by the Spanish National Emissions Reduction Plan. The economic implications for a GenCo of including the environmental restrictions of these National Plans are analyzed and the most remarkable results will be presented.
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A 28-year-old woman consulted for disabling pulsatile tinnitus. Clinical examination suggested a venous etiology. An aneurysm of the transverse-sigmoid sinus was identified on computed tomography angiography (CTA) and confirmed by digital subtraction angiography. Endovascular occlusion of the aneurysm with detachable coils permanently eliminated the bruit. Thus, this report is of a new case of pulsatile tinnitus caused by an aneurysm of the transverse-sigmoid sinus, with a focus on a literature review and etiopathophysiology. Embryological studies suggest that these aneurysms represent a partial remnant of the petrosquamous sinus.
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THESIS ABSTRACT : Low-temperature thermochronology relies on application of radioisotopic systems whose closure temperatures are below temperatures at which the dated phases are formed. In that sense, the results are interpreted as "cooling ages" in contrast to "formation ages". Owing to the low closure-temperatures, it is possible to reconstruct exhumation and cooling paths of rocks during their residence at shallow levels of the crust, i.e. within first ~10 km of depth. Processes occurring at these shallow depths such as final exhumation, faulting and relief formation are fundamental for evolution of the mountain belts. This thesis aims at reconstructing the tectono-thermal history of the Aar massif in the Central Swiss Alps by means of zircon (U-Th)/He, apatite (U-Th)/He and apatite fission track thermochronology. The strategy involved acquisition of a large number of samples from a wide range of elevations in the deeply incised Lötschen valley and a nearby NEAT tunnel. This unique location allowed to precisely constrain timing, amount and mechanisms of exhumation of the main orographic feature of the Central Alps, evaluate the role of topography on the thermochronological record and test the impact of hydrothermal activity. Samples were collected from altitudes ranging between 650 and 3930 m and were grouped into five vertical profiles on the surface and one horizontal in the tunnel. Where possible, all three radiometric systems were applied to each sample. Zircon (U-Th)/He ages range from 5.1 to 9.4 Ma and are generally positively correlated with altitude. Age-elevation plots reveal a distinct break in slope, which translates into exhumation rate increasing from ~0.4 to ~3 km/Ma at 6 Ma. This acceleration is independently confirmed by increased cooling rates on the order of 100°C/Ma constrained on the basis of age differences between the zircon (U-Th)/He and the remaining systems. Apatite fission track data also plot on a steep age-elevation curve indicating rapid exhumation until the end of the Miocene. The 6 Ma event is interpreted as reflecting tectonically driven uplift of the Aar massif. The late Miocene timing implies that the increase of precipitation in the Pliocene did not trigger rapid exhumation in the Aar massif. The Messinian salinity crisis in the Mediterranean could not directly intensify erosion of the Aar but associated erosional output from the entire Alps may have tapered the orogenic wedge and caused reactivation of thrusting in the Aar massif. The high exhumation rates in the Messinian were followed by a decrease to ~1.3 km/Ma as evidenced by ~8 km of exhumation during last 6 Ma. The slowing of exhumation is also apparent from apatite (U-Th)1He age-elevation data in the northern part of the Lötschen valley where they plot on a ~0.5km/Ma line and range from 2.4 to 6.4 Ma However, from the apatite (U-Th)/He and fission track data from the NEAT tunnel, there is an indication of a perturbation of the record. The apatite ages are youngest under the axis of the valley, in contrast to an expected pattern where they would be youngest in the deepest sections of the tunnel due to heat advection into ridges. The valley however, developed in relatively soft schists while the ridges are built of solid granitoids. In line with hydrological observations from the tunnel, we suggest that the relatively permeable rocks under the valley floor, served as conduits of geothermal fluids that caused reheating leading to partial Helium loss and fission track annealing in apatites. In consequence, apatite ages from the lowermost samples are too young and the calculated exhumation rates may underestimate true values. This study demonstrated that high-density sampling is indispensable to provide meaningful thermochronological data in the Alpine setting. The multi-system approach allows verifying plausibility of the data and highlighting sources of perturbation. RÉSUMÉ DE THÈSE : La thermochronologie de basse température dépend de l'utilisation de systèmes radiométriques dont la température de fermeture est nettement inférieure à la température de cristallisation du minéral. Les résultats obtenus sont par conséquent interprétés comme des âges de refroidissement qui diffèrent des âges de formation obtenus par le biais d'autres systèmes de datation. Grâce aux températures de refroidissement basses, il est aisé de reconstruire les chemins de refroidissement et d'exhumation des roches lors de leur résidence dans la croute superficielle (jusqu'à 10 km). Les processus qui entrent en jeu à ces faibles profondeurs tels que l'exhumation finale, la fracturation et le faillage ainsi que la formation du relief sont fondamentaux dans l'évolution des chaînes de montagne. Ces dernières années, il est devenu clair que l'enregistrement thermochronologique dans les orogènes peut être influencé par le relief et réinitialisé par l'advection de la chaleur liée à la circulation de fluides géothermaux après le refroidissement initial. L'objectif de cette thèse est de reconstruire l'histoire tectono-thermique du massif de l'Aar dans les Alpes suisses Centrales à l'aide de trois thermochronomètres; (U-Th)/He sur zircon, (U-Th)/He sur apatite et les traces de fission sur apatite. Afin d'atteindre cet objectif, nous avons récolté un grand nombre d'échantillons provenant de différentes altitudes dans la vallée fortement incisée de Lötschental ainsi que du tunnel de NEAT. Cette stratégie d'échantillonnage nous a permis de contraindre de manière précise la chronologie, les quantités et les mécanismes d'exhumation de cette zone des Alpes Centrales, d'évaluer le rôle de la topographie sur l'enregistrement thermochronologique et de tester l'impact de l'hydrothermalisme sur les géochronomètres. Les échantillons ont été prélevés à des altitudes comprises entre 650 et 3930m selon 5 profils verticaux en surface et un dans le tunnel. Quand cela à été possible, les trois systèmes radiométriques ont été appliqués aux échantillons. Les âges (U-Th)\He obtenus sur zircons sont compris entre 5.l et 9.4 Ma et sont corrélés de manière positive avec l'altitude. Les graphiques représentant l'âge et l'élévation montrent une nette rupture de la pente qui traduisent un accroissement de la vitesse d'exhumation de 0.4 à 3 km\Ma il y a 6 Ma. Cette accélération de l'exhumation est confirmée par les vitesses de refroidissement de l'ordre de 100°C\Ma obtenus à partir des différents âges sur zircons et à partir des autres systèmes géochronologiques. Les données obtenues par traces de fission sur apatite nous indiquent également une exhumation rapide jusqu'à la fin du Miocène. Nous interprétons cet évènement à 6 Ma comme étant lié à l'uplift tectonique du massif de l'Aar. Le fait que cet évènement soit tardi-miocène implique qu'une augmentation des précipitations au Pliocène n'a pas engendré cette exhumation rapide du massif de l'Aar. La crise Messinienne de la mer méditerranée n'a pas pu avoir une incidence directe sur l'érosion du massif de l'Aar mais l'érosion associée à ce phénomène à pu réduire le coin orogénique alpin et causer la réactivation des chevauchements du massif de l'Aar. L'exhumation rapide Miocène a été suivie pas une diminution des taux d'exhumation lors des derniers 6 Ma (jusqu'à 1.3 km\Ma). Cependant, les âges (U-Th)\He sur apatite ainsi que les traces de fission sur apatite des échantillons du tunnel enregistrent une perturbation de l'enregistrement décrit ci-dessus. Les âges obtenus sur les apatites sont sensiblement plus jeunes sous l'axe de la vallée en comparaison du profil d'âges attendus. En effet, on attendrait des âges plus jeunes sous les parties les plus profondes du tunnel à cause de l'advection de la chaleur dans les flancs de la vallée. La vallée est creusée dans des schistes alors que les flancs de celle-ci sont constitués de granitoïdes plus durs. En accord avec les observations hydrologiques du tunnel, nous suggérons que la perméabilité élevée des roches sous l'axe de la vallée à permi l'infiltration de fluides géothermaux qui a généré un réchauffement des roches. Ce réchauffement aurait donc induit une perte d'Hélium et un recuit des traces de fission dans les apatites. Ceci résulterait en un rajeunissement des âges apatite et en une sous-estimation des vitesses d'exhumation sous l'axe de la vallée. Cette étude à servi à démontrer la nécessité d'un échantillonnage fin et précis afin d'apporter des données thermochronologiques de qualité dans le contexte alpin. Cette approche multi-système nous a permi de contrôler la pertinence des données acquises ainsi que d'identifier les sources possibles d'erreurs lors d'études thermochronologiques. RÉSUMÉ LARGE PUBLIC Lors d'une orogenèse, les roches subissent un cycle comprenant une subduction, de la déformation, du métamorphisme et, finalement, un retour à la surface (ou exhumation). L'exhumation résulte de la déformation au sein de la zone de collision, menant à un raccourcissement et un apaissessement de l'édifice rocheux, qui se traduit par une remontée des roches, création d'une topographie et érosion. Puisque l'érosion agit comme un racloir sur la partie supérieure de l'édifice, des tentatives de corrélation entre les épisodes d'exhumation rapide et les périodes d'érosion intensive, dues aux changements climatiques, ont été effectuées. La connaissance de la chronologie et du lieu précis est d'une importance capitale pour une quelconque reconstruction de l'évolution d'une chaîne de montagne. Ces critères sont donnés par un retraçage des changements de la température de la roche en fonction du temps, nous donnant le taux de refroidissement. L'instant auquel les roches ont refroidit, passant une certaine température, est contraint par l'application de techniques de datation par radiométrie. Ces méthodes reposent sur la désintégration des isotopes radiogéniques, tels que l'uranium et le potassium, tous deux abondants dans les roches de la croûte terrestre. Les produits de cette désintégration ne sont pas retenus dans les minéraux hôtes jusqu'au moment du refroidissement de la roche sous une température appelée 'de fermeture' , spécifique à chaque système de datation. Par exemple, la désintégration radioactive des atomes d'uranium et de thorium produit des atomes d'hélium qui s'échappent d'un cristal de zircon à des températures supérieures à 200°C. En mesurant la teneur en uranium-parent, l'hélium accumulé et en connaissant le taux de désintégration, il est possible de calculer à quel moment la roche échantillonnée est passée sous la température de 200°C. Si le gradient géothermal est connu, les températures de fermeture peuvent être converties en profondeurs actuelles (p. ex. 200°C ≈ 7km), et le taux de refroidissement en taux d'exhumation. De plus, en datant par système radiométrique des échantillons espacés verticalement, il est possible de contraindre directement le taux d'exhumation de la section échantillonnée en observant les différences d'âges entre des échantillons voisins. Dans les Alpes suisses, le massif de l'Aar forme une structure orographique majeure. Avec des altitudes supérieures à 4000m et un relief spectaculaire de plus de 2000m, le massif domine la partie centrale de la chaîne de montagne. Les roches aujourd'hui exposées à la surface ont été enfouies à plus de 10 km de profond il y a 20 Ma, mais la topographie actuelle du massif de l'Aar semble surtout s'être développée par un soulèvement actif depuis quelques millions d'années, c'est-à-dire depuis le Néogène supérieur. Cette période comprend un changement climatique soudain ayant touché l'Europe il y a environ 5 Ma et qui a occasionné de fortes précipitations, entraînant certainement une augmentation de l'érosion et accélérant l'exhumation des Alpes. Dans cette étude, nous avons employé le système de datation (U-TH)/He sur zircon, dont la température de fermeture de 200°C est suffisamment basse pour caractériser l'exhumation du Néogène sup. /Pliocène. Les échantillons proviennent du Lötschental et du tunnel ferroviaire le plus profond du monde (NEAT) situé dans la partie ouest du massif de l'Aar. Considérés dans l'ensemble, ces échantillons se répartissent sur un dénivelé de 3000m et des âges de 5.1 à 9.4 Ma. Les échantillons d'altitude supérieure (et donc plus vieux) documentent un taux d'exhumation de 0.4 km/Ma jusqu'à il y a 6 Ma, alors que les échantillons situés les plus bas ont des âges similaires allant de 6 à 5.4 Ma, donnant un taux jusqu'à 3km /Ma. Ces données montrent une accélération dramatique de l'exhumation du massif de l'Aar il y a 6 Ma. L'exhumation miocène sup. du massif prédate donc le changement climatique Pliocène. Cependant, lors de la crise de salinité d'il y a 6-5.3 Ma (Messinien), le niveau de la mer Méditerranée est descendu de 3km. Un tel abaissement de la surface d'érosion peut avoir accéléré l'exhumation des Alpes, mais le bassin sud alpin était trop loin du massif de l'Aar pour influencer son érosion. Nous arrivons à la conclusion que la datation (U-Th)/He permet de contraindre précisément la chronologie et l'exhumation du massif de l'Aar. Concernant la dualité tectonique-érosion, nous suggérons que, dans le cas du massif de l'Aar, la tectonique prédomine.
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Animals can often coordinate their actions to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes. However, this can result in a social dilemma when uncertainty about the behavior of partners creates multiple fitness peaks. Strategies that minimize risk ("risk dominant") instead of maximizing reward ("payoff dominant") are favored in economic models when individuals learn behaviors that increase their payoffs. Specifically, such strategies are shown to be "stochastically stable" (a refinement of evolutionary stability). Here, we extend the notion of stochastic stability to biological models of continuous phenotypes at a mutation-selection-drift balance. This allows us to make a unique prediction for long-term evolution in games with multiple equilibria. We show how genetic relatedness due to limited dispersal and scaled to account for local competition can crucially affect the stochastically-stable outcome of coordination games. We find that positive relatedness (weak local competition) increases the chance the payoff dominant strategy is stochastically stable, even when it is not risk dominant. Conversely, negative relatedness (strong local competition) increases the chance that strategies evolve that are neither payoff nor risk dominant. Extending our results to large multiplayer coordination games we find that negative relatedness can create competition so extreme that the game effectively changes to a hawk-dove game and a stochastically stable polymorphism between the alternative strategies evolves. These results demonstrate the usefulness of stochastic stability in characterizing long-term evolution of continuous phenotypes: the outcomes of multiplayer games can be reduced to the generic equilibria of two-player games and the effect of spatial structure can be analyzed readily.
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BACKGROUND: Antipyresis is a common clinical practice in intensive care, although it is unknown if fever is harmful, beneficial, or a negligible adverse effect of infection and inflammation. METHODS: In a randomized study, rectal temperature and discomfort were assessed in 38 surgical intensive care unit patients without neurotrauma or severe hypoxemia and with fever (temperature >/=38.5 degrees C) and systemic inflammatory response syndrome. Eighteen patients received external cooling while 20 received no antipyretic treatment. RESULTS: Temperature and discomfort decreased similarly in both groups after 24 hours. No significant differences in recurrence of fever, incidence of infection, antibiotic therapy, intensive care unit and hospital length of stay, or mortality were noted between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that the systematic suppression of fever may not be useful in patients without severe cranial trauma or significant hypoxemia. Letting fever take its natural course does not seem to harm patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome or influence the discomfort level and may save costs.
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A complete life cycle model for northern corn rootworm, Diabrotica barberi Smith and Lawrence, is developed using a published single-season model of adult population dynamics and data from field experiments. Temperature-dependent development and age-dependent advancement determine adult population dynamics and oviposition, while a simple stochastic hatch and density-dependent larval survival model determine adult emergence. Dispersal is not modeled. To evaluate the long-run performance of the model, stochastically generated daily air and soil temperatures are used for 100-year simulations for a variety of corn planting and flowering dates in Ithaca, NY, and Brookings, SD. Once the model is corrected for a bias in oviposition, model predictions for both locations are consistent with anecdotal field data. Extinctions still occur, but these may be consistent with northern corn rootworm metapopulation dynamics.
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Cultural variation in a population is affected by the rate of occurrence of cultural innovations, whether such innovations are preferred or eschewed, how they are transmitted between individuals in the population, and the size of the population. An innovation, such as a modification in an attribute of a handaxe, may be lost or may become a property of all handaxes, which we call "fixation of the innovation." Alternatively, several innovations may attain appreciable frequencies, in which case properties of the frequency distribution-for example, of handaxe measurements-is important. Here we apply the Moran model from the stochastic theory of population genetics to study the evolution of cultural innovations. We obtain the probability that an initially rare innovation becomes fixed, and the expected time this takes. When variation in cultural traits is due to recurrent innovation, copy error, and sampling from generation to generation, we describe properties of this variation, such as the level of heterogeneity expected in the population. For all of these, we determine the effect of the mode of social transmission: conformist, where there is a tendency for each naïve newborn to copy the most popular variant; pro-novelty bias, where the newborn prefers a specific variant if it exists among those it samples; one-to-many transmission, where the variant one individual carries is copied by all newborns while that individual remains alive. We compare our findings with those predicted by prevailing theories for rates of cultural change and the distribution of cultural variation.
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The members of the Iowa Concrete Paving Association, the National Concrete Pavement Technology Center Research Committee, and the Iowa Highway Research Board commissioned a study to examine alternative ways of developing transverse joints in portland cement concrete pavements. The present study investigated six separate variations of vertical metal strips placed above and below the dowels in conventional baskets. In addition, the study investigated existing patented assemblies and a new assembly developed in Spain and used in Australia. The metal assemblies were placed in a new pavement and allowed to stay in place for 30 days before the Iowa Department of Transportation staff terminated the test by directing the contractor to saw and seal the joints. This report describes the design, construction, testing, and conclusions of the project.
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In this paper we proose the infimum of the Arrow-Pratt index of absoluterisk aversion as a measure of global risk aversion of a utility function.We then show that, for any given arbitrary pair of distributions, thereexists a threshold level of global risk aversion such that all increasingconcave utility functions with at least as much global risk aversion wouldrank the two distributions in the same way. Furthermore, this thresholdlevel is sharp in the sense that, for any lower level of global riskaversion, we can find two utility functions in this class yielding oppositepreference relations for the two distributions.
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The achievable region approach seeks solutions to stochastic optimisation problems by: (i) characterising the space of all possible performances(the achievable region) of the system of interest, and (ii) optimisingthe overall system-wide performance objective over this space. This isradically different from conventional formulations based on dynamicprogramming. The approach is explained with reference to a simpletwo-class queueing system. Powerful new methodologies due to the authorsand co-workers are deployed to analyse a general multiclass queueingsystem with parallel servers and then to develop an approach to optimalload distribution across a network of interconnected stations. Finally,the approach is used for the first time to analyse a class of intensitycontrol problems.
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Most research on single machine scheduling has assumedthe linearity of job holding costs, which is arguablynot appropriate in some applications. This motivates ourstudy of a model for scheduling $n$ classes of stochasticjobs on a single machine, with the objective of minimizingthe total expected holding cost (discounted or undiscounted). We allow general holding cost rates that are separable,nondecreasing and convex on the number of jobs in eachclass. We formulate the problem as a linear program overa certain greedoid polytope, and establish that it issolved optimally by a dynamic (priority) index rule,whichextends the classical Smith's rule (1956) for the linearcase. Unlike Smith's indices, defined for each class, ournew indices are defined for each extended class, consistingof a class and a number of jobs in that class, and yieldan optimal dynamic index rule: work at each time on a jobwhose current extended class has larger index. We furthershow that the indices possess a decomposition property,as they are computed separately for each class, andinterpret them in economic terms as marginal expected cost rate reductions per unit of expected processing time.We establish the results by deploying a methodology recentlyintroduced by us [J. Niño-Mora (1999). "Restless bandits,partial conservation laws, and indexability. "Forthcomingin Advances in Applied Probability Vol. 33 No. 1, 2001],based on the satisfaction by performance measures of partialconservation laws (PCL) (which extend the generalizedconservation laws of Bertsimas and Niño-Mora (1996)):PCL provide a polyhedral framework for establishing theoptimality of index policies with special structure inscheduling problems under admissible objectives, which weapply to the model of concern.