A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis

For derived flood frequency analysis based on hydrological modelling long continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are needed. Often, the observation network with recording rainfall gauges is poor, especially regarding the limited length of the available rainfall time series. Stochastic precipitation synthesis is a good alternative either to extend or to regionalise rainfall series to provide adequate input for long-term rainfall-runoff modelling with subsequent estimation of design floods. Here, a new two step procedure for stochastic synthesis of continuous hourly space-time rainfall is proposed and tested for the extension of short observed precipitation time series. First, a single-site alternating renewal model is presented to simulate independent hourly precipitation time series for several locations. The alternating renewal model describes wet spell durations, dry spell durations and wet spell intensities using univariate frequency distributions separately for two seasons. The dependence between wet spell intensity and duration is accounted for by 2-copulas. For disaggregation of the wet spells into hourly intensities a predefined profile is used. In the second step a multi-site resampling procedure is applied on the synthetic point rainfall event series to reproduce the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. Resampling is carried out successively on all synthetic event series using simulated annealing with an objective function considering three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics. In a case study synthetic precipitation is generated for some locations with short observation records in two mesoscale catchments of the Bode river basin located in northern Germany. The synthetic rainfall data are then applied for derived flood frequency analysis using the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show good performance in reproducing average and extreme rainfall characteristics as well as in reproducing observed flood frequencies. The presented model has the potential to be used for ungauged locations through regionalisation of the model parameters.

Damage assessment of 3D reinforced concrete frame under external explosion loading

Multi-storey buildings are highly vulnerable to terrorist bombing attacks in various parts of the world. Large numbers of casualties and extensive property damage result not only from blast overpressure, but also from the failing of structural components. Understanding the blast response and damage consequences of reinforced concrete (RC) building frames is therefore important when assessing multi-storey buildings designed to resist normal gravity loads. However, limited research has been conducted to identify the blast response and damage of RC frames in order to assess the vulnerability of entire buildings. This paper discusses the blast response and evaluation of damage of three-dimension (3D) RC rigid frame under potential blast loads scenarios. The explicit finite element modelling and analysis under time history blast pressure loads were carried out by LS DYNA code. Complete 3D RC frame was developed with relevant reinforcement details and material models with strain rate effect. Idealised triangular blast pressures calculated from standard manuals are applied on the front face of the model in the present investigation. The analysis results show the blast response, as displacements and material yielding of the structural elements in the RC frame. The level of damage is evaluated and classified according to the selected load case scenarios. Residual load carrying capacities are evaluated and level of damage was presented by the defined damage indices. This information is necessary to determine the vulnerability of existing multi-storey buildings with RC frames and to identify the level of damage under typical external explosion environments. It also provides basic guidance to the design of new buildings to resist blast loads.

Econometric analysis of stuctural systems with permanent and transitory shocks

This paper considers the implications of the permanent/transitory decomposition of shocks for identification of structural models in the general case where the model might contain more than one permanent structural shock. It provides a simple and intuitive generalization of the influential work of Blanchard and Quah [1989. The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances. The American Economic Review 79, 655–673], and shows that structural equations with known permanent shocks cannot contain error correction terms, thereby freeing up the latter to be used as instruments in estimating their parameters. The approach is illustrated by a re-examination of the identification schemes used by Wickens and Motto [2001. Estimating shocks and impulse response functions. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16, 371–387], Shapiro and Watson [1988. Sources of business cycle fluctuations. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 3, 111–148], King et al. [1991. Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations. American Economic Review 81, 819–840], Gali [1992. How well does the ISLM model fit postwar US data? Quarterly Journal of Economics 107, 709–735; 1999. Technology, employment, and the business cycle: Do technology shocks explain aggregate fluctuations? American Economic Review 89, 249–271] and Fisher [2006. The dynamic effects of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks. Journal of Political Economy 114, 413–451].

Evaluating Specification Tests for Markov-Switching Time-Series Models

We evaluate the performance of several specification tests for Markov regime-switching time-series models. We consider the Lagrange multiplier (LM) and dynamic specification tests of Hamilton (1996) and Ljung–Box tests based on both the generalized residual and a standard-normal residual constructed using the Rosenblatt transformation. The size and power of the tests are studied using Monte Carlo experiments. We find that the LM tests have the best size and power properties. The Ljung–Box tests exhibit slight size distortions, though tests based on the Rosenblatt transformation perform better than the generalized residual-based tests. The tests exhibit impressive power to detect both autocorrelation and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH). The tests are illustrated with a Markov-switching generalized ARCH (GARCH) model fitted to the US dollar–British pound exchange rate, with the finding that both autocorrelation and GARCH effects are needed to adequately fit the data.

The feasibility of vibration analysis as a technique to detect osseointegration of transfemoral implants

One of the main causes of above knee or transfemoral amputation (TFA) in the developed world is trauma to the limb. The number of people undergoing TFA due to limb trauma, particularly due to war injuries, has been increasing. Typically the trauma amputee population, including war-related amputees, are otherwise healthy, active and desire to return to employment and their usual lifestyle. Consequently there is a growing need to restore long-term mobility and limb function to this population. Traditionally transfemoral amputees are provided with an artificial or prosthetic leg that consists of a fabricated socket, knee joint mechanism and a prosthetic foot. Amputees have reported several problems related to the socket of their prosthetic limb. These include pain in the residual limb, poor socket fit, discomfort and poor mobility. Removing the socket from the prosthetic limb could eliminate or reduce these problems. A solution to this is the direct attachment of the prosthesis to the residual bone (femur) inside the residual limb. This technique has been used on a small population of transfemoral amputees since 1990. A threaded titanium implant is screwed in to the shaft of the femur and a second component connects between the implant and the prosthesis. A period of time is required to allow the implant to become fully attached to the bone, called osseointegration (OI), and be able to withstand applied load; then the prosthesis can be attached. The advantages of transfemoral osseointegration (TFOI) over conventional prosthetic sockets include better hip mobility, sitting comfort and prosthetic retention and fewer skin problems on the residual limb. However, due to the length of time required for OI to progress and to complete the rehabilitation exercises, it can take up to twelve months after implant insertion for an amputee to be able to load bear and to walk unaided. The long rehabilitation time is a significant disadvantage of TFOI and may be impeding the wider adoption of the technique. There is a need for a non-invasive method of assessing the degree of osseointegration between the bone and the implant. If such a method was capable of determining the progression of TFOI and assessing when the implant was able to withstand physiological load it could reduce the overall rehabilitation time. Vibration analysis has been suggested as a potential technique: it is a non destructive method of assessing the dynamic properties of a structure. Changes in the physical properties of a structure can be identified from changes in its dynamic properties. Consequently vibration analysis, both experimental and computational, has been used to assess bone fracture healing, prosthetic hip loosening and dental implant OI with varying degrees of success. More recently experimental vibration analysis has been used in TFOI. However further work is needed to assess the potential of the technique and fully characterise the femur-implant system. The overall aim of this study was to develop physical and computational models of the TFOI femur-implant system and use these models to investigate the feasibility of vibration analysis to detect the process of OI. Femur-implant physical models were developed and manufactured using synthetic materials to represent four key stages of OI development (identified from a physiological model), simulated using different interface conditions between the implant and femur. Experimental vibration analysis (modal analysis) was then conducted using the physical models. The femur-implant models, representing stage one to stage four of OI development, were excited and the modal parameters obtained over the range 0-5kHz. The results indicated the technique had limited capability in distinguishing between different interface conditions. The fundamental bending mode did not alter with interfacial changes. However higher modes were able to track chronological changes in interface condition by the change in natural frequency, although no one modal parameter could uniquely distinguish between each interface condition. The importance of the model boundary condition (how the model is constrained) was the key finding; variations in the boundary condition altered the modal parameters obtained. Therefore the boundary conditions need to be held constant between tests in order for the detected modal parameter changes to be attributed to interface condition changes. A three dimensional Finite Element (FE) model of the femur-implant model was then developed and used to explore the sensitivity of the modal parameters to more subtle interfacial and boundary condition changes. The FE model was created using the synthetic femur geometry and an approximation of the implant geometry. The natural frequencies of the FE model were found to match the experimental frequencies within 20% and the FE and experimental mode shapes were similar. Therefore the FE model was shown to successfully capture the dynamic response of the physical system. As was found with the experimental modal analysis, the fundamental bending mode of the FE model did not alter due to changes in interface elastic modulus. Axial and torsional modes were identified by the FE model that were not detected experimentally; the torsional mode exhibited the largest frequency change due to interfacial changes (103% between the lower and upper limits of the interface modulus range). Therefore the FE model provided additional information on the dynamic response of the system and was complementary to the experimental model. The small changes in natural frequency over a large range of interface region elastic moduli indicated the method may only be able to distinguish between early and late OI progression. The boundary conditions applied to the FE model influenced the modal parameters to a far greater extent than the interface condition variations. Therefore the FE model, as well as the experimental modal analysis, indicated that the boundary conditions need to be held constant between tests in order for the detected changes in modal parameters to be attributed to interface condition changes alone. The results of this study suggest that in a clinical setting it is unlikely that the in vivo boundary conditions of the amputated femur could be adequately controlled or replicated over time and consequently it is unlikely that any longitudinal change in frequency detected by the modal analysis technique could be attributed exclusively to changes at the femur-implant interface. Therefore further development of the modal analysis technique would require significant consideration of the clinical boundary conditions and investigation of modes other than the bending modes.

The short-term effect of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality in Tianjin, China : comparison of time series and case–crossover analyses

Background: Many studies have illustrated that ambient air pollution negatively impacts on health. However, little evidence is available for the effects of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality (CVM) in Tianjin, China. Also, no study has examined which strata length for the time-stratified case–crossover analysis gives estimates that most closely match the estimates from time series analysis. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to estimate the effects of air pollutants on CVM in Tianjin, China, and compare time-stratified case–crossover and time series analyses. Method: A time-stratified case–crossover and generalized additive model (time series) were applied to examine the impact of air pollution on CVM from 2005 to 2007. Four time-stratified case–crossover analyses were used by varying the stratum length (Calendar month, 28, 21 or 14 days). Jackknifing was used to compare the methods. Residual analysis was used to check whether the models fitted well. Results: Both case–crossover and time series analyses show that air pollutants (PM10, SO2 and NO2) were positively associated with CVM. The estimates from the time-stratified case–crossover varied greatly with changing strata length. The estimates from the time series analyses varied slightly with changing degrees of freedom per year for time. The residuals from the time series analyses had less autocorrelation than those from the case–crossover analyses indicating a better fit. Conclusion: Air pollution was associated with an increased risk of CVM in Tianjin, China. Time series analyses performed better than the time-stratified case–crossover analyses in terms of residual checking.

Response of tall buildings with symmetric setbacks under blast loading

This study explores three-dimensional nonlineardynamic responses of typical tall buildings with and without setbacks under blast loading. These 20 storey reinforced concrete buildings have been designed for normal (dead, live and wind)loads. The influence of the setbacks on the lateral load response due to blasts in terms of peak deflections, accelerations, inter-storey drift and bending moments at critical locations (including hinge formation) were investigated. Structural response predictions were performed with a commercially available three-dimensional finite element analysis programme using non-linear direct integration time history analyses. Results obtained for buildings with different setbacks were compared and conclusions made. The comparisons revealed that buildings have setbacks that protect the tower part above the setback level from blast loading show considerably better response in terms of peak displacement and interstorey drift, when compared to buildings without setbacks. Rotational accelerations were found to depend on the periods of the rotational modes. Abrupt changes in moments and shears are experienced near the levels of the setbacks. Typical twenty storey tall buildings with shear walls and frames that are designed for only normaln loads perform reasonably well, without catastrophic collapse, when subjected to a blast that is equivalent to 500 kg TNT at a standoff distance of 10 m.

Noise robust voice activity detection using features extracted from the time-domain autocorrelation function

This paper presents a method of voice activity detection (VAD) for high noise scenarios, using a noise robust voiced speech detection feature. The developed method is based on the fusion of two systems. The first system utilises the maximum peak of the normalised time-domain autocorrelation function (MaxPeak). The second zone system uses a novel combination of cross-correlation and zero-crossing rate of the normalised autocorrelation to approximate a measure of signal pitch and periodicity (CrossCorr) that is hypothesised to be noise robust. The score outputs by the two systems are then merged using weighted sum fusion to create the proposed autocorrelation zero-crossing rate (AZR) VAD. Accuracy of AZR was compared to state of the art and standardised VAD methods and was shown to outperform the best performing system with an average relative improvement of 24.8% in half-total error rate (HTER) on the QUT-NOISE-TIMIT database created using real recordings from high-noise environments.

The meaning of home for Karen and Chin refugees from Burma: An interpretative phenomenological approach

Loss of home is common to all people from a refugee background yet we have little understanding of the diversity of meaning associated with this important concept. A phenomenological approach was used to explore experiences of home amongst Karen and Chin refugees residing in Brisbane. In-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with nine participants from Karen and Chin backgrounds. The participants comprised five females and four males (mean age 40 years, median length of time in Australia 1.33 years). Participants described their migration stories, including pre- and post-migration history. Analysis was conducted using interpretative phenomenological analysis. Three superordinate themes, explicating the meaning of home for participants, were identified: home as the experience of a psychological space of safety and retreat; home as the socio-emotional space of relatedness to family; and home as geographical-emotional landscape. Loss of home was experienced as a multidimensional loss associated with emotional and physical disturbances. These findings, based upon a phenomenological paradigm, enhance understanding of the experience of being a refugee and of the suffering engendered by loss of home. They open up the possibility for conceptualizing refugee responses in terms of human suffering and meaning making.