The 'direct costs' of livestock disease: The development of a system of models for the analysis of 30 endemic livestock diseases in Great Britain

The 'direct costs' attributable to 30 different endemic diseases of farm animals in Great Britain are estimated using a standardised method to construct a simple model for each disease that includes consideration of disease prevention and treatment costs. The models so far developed provide a basis for further analyses including cost-benefit analyses for the economic assessment of disease control options. The approach used reflects the inherent livestock disease information constraints, which limit the application of other economic analytical methods. It is a practical and transparent approach that is relatively easily communicated to veterinary scientists and policy makers. The next step is to develop the approach by incorporating wider economic considerations into the analyses in a way that will demonstrate to policy makers and others the importance of an economic perspective to livestock disease issues.

Toward a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system: Determination of the working spatial scale

A methodology is presented for the development of a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system. The first stage of the methodology is the determination of the spatial scale(s) on which the system could operate; this determination has been made for the case of groundnut production in India. Rainfall is a dominant climatic determinant of groundnut yield in India. The relationship between yield and rainfall has been explored using data from 1966 to 1995. On the all-India scale, seasonal rainfall explains 52% of the variance in yield. On the subdivisional scale, correlations vary between variance r(2) = 0.62 (significance level p < 10(-4)) and a negative correlation with r(2) = 0.1 (p = 0.13). The spatial structure of the relationship between rainfall and groundnut yield has been explored using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. A coherent, large-scale pattern emerges for both rainfall and yield. On the subdivisional scale (similar to 300 km), the first principal component (PC) of rainfall is correlated well with the first PC of yield (r(2) = 0.53, p < 10(-4)), demonstrating that the large-scale patterns picked out by the EOFs are related. The physical significance of this result is demonstrated. Use of larger averaging areas for the EOF analysis resulted in lower and (over time) less robust correlations. Because of this loss of detail when using larger spatial scales, the subdivisional scale is suggested as an upper limit on the spatial scale for the proposed forecasting system. Further, district-level EOFs of the yield data demonstrate the validity of upscaling these data to the subdivisional scale. Similar patterns have been produced using data on both of these scales, and the first PCs are very highly correlated (r(2) = 0.96). Hence, a working spatial scale has been identified, typical of that used in seasonal weather forecasting, that can form the basis of crop modeling work for the case of groundnut production in India. Last, the change in correlation between yield and seasonal rainfall during the study period has been examined using seasonal totals and monthly EOFs. A further link between yield and subseasonal variability is demonstrated via analysis of dynamical data.

Exploring the applications of a pulsating jet hydrodynamic modulated voltammetric (HMV) system - electrochemistry of nanostructured Pt electrodes and trace analysis

The electrochemistry of nanostructured electrodes is investigated using hydrodynamic modulated voltammetry (HMV). Here a liquid crystal templating process is used to produce a platinum modified electrode with a relatively high surface area (Roughness factor, Rf = 42.4). The electroreduction of molecular oxygen at a nanostructured platinum surface is used to demonstrate the ability of HMV to discriminate between Faradaic and non-Faradaic electrode reactions. The HMV approach shows that the reduction of molecular oxygen shows considerable hysteresis correlating with the formation and stripping of oxide species at the platinum surface. Without the HMV analysis it is difficult to discern the same detail under the conditions employed. In addition the detection limit of the apparatus is explored and shown, under ideal conditions, to be of the order of 45 nmol dm(-3) employing [Fe(CN)(6)](4-) as a test species. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mechanisms of alkylpyrazine formation in a potato model system containing added glycine

The use of glycine to limit acrylamide formation during the heating of a potato model system was also found to alter the relative proportions of alkylpyrazines. The addition of glycine increased the quantities of several alkylpyrazines, and labeling studies using [2-C-13]glycine showed that those alkylpyrazines which increased in the presence of glycine had at least one C-13-labeled methyl substituent derived from glycine. The distribution of C-13 within the pyrazines suggested two pathways by which glycine, and other amino acids, participate in alkylpyrazine formation, and showed the relative contribution of each pathway. Alkylpyrazines that involve glycine in both formation pathways displayed the largest relative increases with glycine addition. The study provided an insight into the sensitivity of alkylpyrazine formation to the amino acid composition in a heated food and demonstrated the importance of those amino acids that are able to contribute an alkyl substituent. This may aid in estimating the impact of amino acid addition on pyrazine formation, when amino acids are added to foods for acrylamide mitigation.

Challenge testing the lactoperoxidase system against a range of bacteria using different activation agents

Lactoperoxidase (LP) exerts antimicrobial effects in combination with H2O2 and either thiocyanate (SCN-) or a halide (e. g., I-). Garlic extract in the presence of ethanol has also been used to activate the LP system. This study aimed to determine the effects of 3 LP activation systems (LP+SCN-+H2O2; LP+I-+H2O2; LP + garlic extract + ethanol) on the growth and activity of 3 test organisms (Staphylococcus aureus, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Bacillus cereus). Sterilized milk was used as the reaction medium, and the growth pattern of the organisms and a range of keeping quality (KQ) indicators (pH, titratable acidity, ethanol stability, clot on boiling) were monitored during storage at the respective optimum growth temperature for each organism. The LP+I-+H2O2 system reduced bacterial counts below the detection limit shortly after treatment for all 3 organisms, and no bacteria could be detected for the duration of the experiment (35 to 55 h). The KQ data confirmed that the milk remained unspoiled at the end of the experiments. The LP + garlic extract + ethanol system, on the other hand, had no effect on the growth or KQ with P. aeruginosa, but showed a small retardation of growth of the other 2 organisms, accompanied by small increases (5 to 10 h) in KQ. The effects of the LP+SCN-+H2O2 system were intermediate between those of the other 2 systems and differed between organisms. With P. aeruginosa, the system exerted total inhibition within 10 h of incubation, but the bacteria regained viability after a further 5 h, following a logarithmic growth curve. This was reflected in the KQ indicators, which implied an extension of 15 h. With the other 2 bacterial species, LP+SCN-+H2O2 exerted an obvious inhibitory effect, giving a lag phase in the growth curve of 5 to 10 h and KQ extension of 10 to 15 h. When used in combination, I- and SCN- displayed negative synergy.

Apodisation, denoising and system identification techniques for THz transients in the wavelet domain

This work describes the use of a quadratic programming optimization procedure for designing asymmetric apodization windows to de-noise THz transient interferograms and compares these results to those obtained when wavelet signal processing algorithms are adopted. A systems identification technique in the wavelet domain is also proposed for the estimation of the complex insertion loss function. The proposed techniques can enhance the frequency dependent dynamic range of an experiment and should be of particular interest to the THz imaging and tomography community. Future advances in THz sources and detectors are likely to increase the signal-to-noise ratio of the recorded THz transients and high quality apodization techniques will become more important, and may set the limit on the achievable accuracy of the deduced spectrum.

Retrievals of thick cloud optical depth from the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) by calibration of solar background signal

Laser beams emitted from the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS), as well as other spaceborne laser instruments, can only penetrate clouds to a limit of a few optical depths. As a result, only optical depths of thinner clouds (< about 3 for GLAS) are retrieved from the reflected lidar signal. This paper presents a comprehensive study of possible retrievals of optical depth of thick clouds using solar background light and treating GLAS as a solar radiometer. To do so one must first calibrate the reflected solar radiation received by the photon-counting detectors of the GLAS 532-nm channel, the primary channel for atmospheric products. Solar background radiation is regarded as a noise to be subtracted in the retrieval process of the lidar products. However, once calibrated, it becomes a signal that can be used in studying the properties of optically thick clouds. In this paper, three calibration methods are presented: (i) calibration with coincident airborne and GLAS observations, (ii) calibration with coincident Geostationary Opera- tional Environmental Satellite (GOES) and GLAS observations of deep convective clouds, and (iii) cali- bration from first principles using optical depth of thin water clouds over ocean retrieved by GLAS active remote sensing. Results from the three methods agree well with each other. Cloud optical depth (COD) is retrieved from the calibrated solar background signal using a one-channel retrieval. Comparison with COD retrieved from GOES during GLAS overpasses shows that the average difference between the two retriev- als is 24%. As an example, the COD values retrieved from GLAS solar background are illustrated for a marine stratocumulus cloud field that is too thick to be penetrated by the GLAS laser. Based on this study, optical depths for thick clouds will be provided as a supplementary product to the existing operational GLAS cloud products in future GLAS data releases.

Spectral design and verification of HIRDLS filters and antireflection coatings using an integrated system performance approach

The HIRDLS instrument contains 21 spectral channels spanning a wavelength range from 6 to 18mm. For each of these channels the spectral bandwidth and position are isolated by an interference bandpass filter at 301K placed at an intermediate focal plane of the instrument. A second filter cooled to 65K positioned at the same wavelength but designed with a wider bandwidth is placed directly in front of each cooled detector element to reduce stray radiation from internally reflected in-band signals, and to improve the out-of-band blocking. This paper describes the process of determining the spectral requirements for the two bandpass filters and the antireflection coatings used on the lenses and dewar window of the instrument. This process uses a system throughput performance approach taking the instrument spectral specification as a target. It takes into account the spectral characteristics of the transmissive optical materials, the relative spectral response of the detectors, thermal emission from the instrument, and the predicted atmospheric signal to determine the radiance profile for each channel. Using this design approach an optimal design for the filters can be achieved, minimising the number of layers to improve the in-band transmission and to aid manufacture. The use of this design method also permits the instrument spectral performance to be verified using the measured response from manufactured components. The spectral calculations for an example channel are discussed, together with the spreadsheet calculation method. All the contributions made by the spectrally active components to the resulting instrument channel throughput are identified and presented.

The influence of ultraviolet radiation on growth, photosynthesis and phenolic levels of green and red lettuce: potential for exploiting effects of ultraviolet radiation in a production system

Studies have shown that natural ultraviolet (UV) radiation increases secondary products such as phenolics but can significantly inhibit biomass accumulation in lettuce plants. In the work presented here, the effect of UV radiation on phenolic concentration and biomass accumulation was assessed in relation to photosynthetic performance in red and green lettuce types. Lettuce plants in polythene clad tunnels were exposed to either ambient (UV transparent film) or UV-free conditions (UV blocking film). The study tested whether growth reduction in lettuce plants exposed to natural UV radiation is because of inhibition of photosynthesis by direct damage to the photosynthetic apparatus or by internal shading by anthocyanins. Ambient levels of UV radiation did not limit the efficiency of photosynthesis suggesting that phenolic compounds may effectively protect the photosynthetic apparatus. Growth inhibition does, however, occur in red lettuce and could be explained by the high metabolic cost of phenolic compounds for UV protection. From a commercial perspective, UV transparent and UV blocking films offer opportunities because, in combination, they could increase plant quality as well as productivity. Growing plants continuously under a UV blocking film, and then 6 days before the final harvest transferring them to a UV transparent film, showed that high yields and high phytochemical content can be achieved complementarily.

Random-walk-based characterisation of multiple access interference in a DS/SSMA system

The problem of calculating the probability of error in a DS/SSMA system has been extensively studied for more than two decades. When random sequences are employed some conditioning must be done before the application of the central limit theorem is attempted, leading to a Gaussian distribution. The authors seek to characterise the multiple access interference as a random-walk with a random number of steps, for random and deterministic sequences. Using results from random-walk theory, they model the interference as a K-distributed random variable and use it to calculate the probability of error in the form of a series, for a DS/SSMA system with a coherent correlation receiver and BPSK modulation under Gaussian noise. The asymptotic properties of the proposed distribution agree with other analyses. This is, to the best of the authors' knowledge, the first attempt to propose a non-Gaussian distribution for the interference. The modelling can be extended to consider multipath fading and general modulation

How difficult is it to recover from dangerous levels of global warming?

Climate models provide compelling evidence that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at present rates, then key global temperature thresholds (such as the European Union limit of two degrees of warming since pre-industrial times) are very likely to be crossed in the next few decades. However, there is relatively little attention paid to whether, should a dangerous temperature level be exceeded, it is feasible for the global temperature to then return to safer levels in a usefully short time. We focus on the timescales needed to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gases and associated temperatures back below potentially dangerous thresholds, using a state-of-the-art general circulation model. This analysis is extended with a simple climate model to provide uncertainty bounds. We find that even for very large reductions in emissions, temperature reduction is likely to occur at a low rate. Policy-makers need to consider such very long recovery timescales implicit in the Earth system when formulating future emission pathways that have the potential to 'overshoot' particular atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and, more importantly, related temperature levels that might be considered dangerous.

Terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks in the climate system

The terrestrial biosphere is a key regulator of atmospheric chemistry and climate. During past periods of climate change, vegetation cover and interactions between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere changed within decades. Modern observations show a similar responsiveness of terrestrial biogeochemistry to anthropogenically forced climate change and air pollution. Although interactions between the carbon cycle and climate have been a central focus, other biogeochemical feedbacks could be as important in modulating future climate change. Total positive radiative forcings resulting from feedbacks between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere are estimated to reach up to 0.9 or 1.5 W m−2 K−1 towards the end of the twenty-first century, depending on the extent to which interactions with the nitrogen cycle stimulate or limit carbon sequestration. This substantially reduces and potentially even eliminates the cooling effect owing to carbon dioxide fertilization of the terrestrial biota. The overall magnitude of the biogeochemical feedbacks could potentially be similar to that of feedbacks in the physical climate system, but there are large uncertainties in the magnitude of individual estimates and in accounting for synergies between these effects.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high-end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real-world climate-sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the upper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present-day observables and future changes, while the large spread of future-projected changes highlights the ongoing need for such work.

Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: a scientific assessment

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth’s climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr�-1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27)Wm�-2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m�-2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m�-2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m�-2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (�-0.50 to +1.08) W m-�2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (�-0.06 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of �-1.45 to +1.29 W m�-2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

Methane emissions from cattle: estimates from short-term measurements using a Green Feed system compared with measurements obtained using respiration chambers or sulphur hexafluoride tracer

The Green Feed (GF) system (C-Lock Inc., Rapid City, USA) is used to estimate total daily methane emissions of individual cattle using short-term measurements obtained over several days. Our objective was to compare measurements of methane emission by growing cattle obtained using the GF system with measurements using respiration chambers (RC)or sulphur hexafluoride tracer (SF6). It was hypothesised that estimates of methane emission for individual animals and treatments would be similar for GF compared to RC or SF6 techniques. In experiment 1, maize or grass silage-based diets were fed to four growing Holstein heifers, whilst for experiment 2, four different heifers were fed four haylage treatments. Both experiments were a 4 × 4 Latin square design with 33 day periods. Green Feed measurements of methane emission were obtained over 7 days (days 22–28) and com-pared to subsequent RC measurements over 4 days (days 29–33). For experiment 3, 12growing heifers rotationally grazed three swards for 26 days, with simultaneous GF and SF6 measurements over two 4 day measurement periods (days 15–19 and days 22–26).Overall methane emissions (g/day and g/kg dry matter intake [DMI]) measured using GF in experiments 1 (198 and 26.6, respectively) and 2 (208 and 27.8, respectively) were similar to averages obtained using RC (218 and 28.3, respectively for experiment 1; and 209 and 27.7, respectively, for experiment 2); but there was poor concordance between the two methods (0.1043 for experiments 1 and 2 combined). Overall, methane emissions measured using SF6 were higher (P<0.001) than GF during grazing (186 vs. 164 g/day), but there was significant (P<0.01) concordance between the two methods (0.6017). There were fewer methane measurements by GF under grazing conditions in experiment 3 (1.60/day) com-pared to indoor measurements in experiments 1 (2.11/day) and 2 (2.34/day). Significant treatment effects on methane emission measured using RC and SF6 were not evident for GF measurements, and the ranking for treatments and individual animals differed using the GF system. We conclude that under our conditions of use the GF system was unable to detectsignificant treatment and individual animal differences in methane emissions that were identified using both RC and SF6techniques, in part due to limited numbers and timing ofmeasurements obtained. Our data suggest that successful use of the GF system is reliant on the number and timing of measurements obtained relative to diurnal patterns of methane emission.