Improving the effort concept: a revision of the traditional approach in the context of controlled Dynamic Stochastic Environments

The objective of this paper is to re-evaluate the attitude to effort of a risk-averse decision-maker in an evolving environment. In the classic analysis, the space of efforts is generally discretized. More realistic, this new approach emploies a continuum of effort levels. The presence of multiple possible efforts and performance levels provides a better basis for explaining real economic phenomena. The traditional approach (see, Laffont, J. J. & Tirole, J., 1993, Salanie, B., 1997, Laffont, J.J. and Martimort, D, 2002, among others) does not take into account the potential effect of the system dynamics on the agent's behavior to effort over time. In the context of a Principal-agent relationship, not only the incentives of the Principal can determine the private agent to allocate a good effort, but also the evolution of the dynamic system. The incentives can be ineffective when the environment does not incite the agent to invest a good effort. This explains why, some effici

Linkages of dietary patterns, international trade and land use: the case of olive oil in the European Union

Within only two decades olive oil developed from a niche product which could hardly be found in food stores outside the producing regions towards an integrated component in the diets of industrial countries. This paper discusses the impacts of the promotion of the “healthy Mediterranean diet” on land use and agro-ecosystems in the producing countries. It examines the dynamics of olive oil production, trade and consumption in the EU15 in the period 1972 to 2003 and the links between dietary patterns, trade and land use. It analyses the underlying socio-economic driving forces behind the increasing spatial disconnect between production and consumption of olive oil in the EU15 and in particular in Spain, the world largest producer during the last three decades. In the observed period olive oil consumption increased 16 fold in the non-producing EU15 countries. In the geographically limited producing regions like Spain, the 5 fold increase in export production was associated with the rapid industrialization of olive production, the conversion of vast Mediterranean landscapes to olive monocultures and a range of environmental pressures. High amounts of subsidies of the European Common Agricultural Policy and feedback loops within production and consumption systems were driving the transformation of the olive oil system. Our analysis indicates the process of change was not immediately driven by increases in demand for olive oil in non-producing countries, but rather by the institutional setting of the European Union and by concerted political interventions.

Simulación de departamentos de urgencias empleando un modelo basado en agentes

Los servicios de salud son sistemas muy complejos, pero de alta importancia, especialmente en algunos momentos críticos, en todo el mundo. Los departamentos de urgencias pueden ser una de las áreas más dinámicas y cambiables de todos los servicios de salud y a la vez más vulnerables a dichos cambios. La mejora de esos departamentos se puede considerar uno de los grandes retos que tiene cualquier administrador de un hospital, y la simulación provee una manera de examinar este sistema tan complejo sin poner en peligro los pacientes que son atendidos. El objetivo de este trabajo ha sido el modelado de un departamento de urgencias y el desarrollo de un simulador que implementa este modelo con la finalidad de explorar el comportamiento y las características de dicho servicio de urgencias. El uso del simulador ofrece la posibilidad de visualizar el comportamiento del modelo con diferentes parámetros y servirá como núcleo de un sistema de ayuda a la toma de decisiones que pueda ser usado en departamentos de urgencias. El modelo se ha desarrollado con técnicas de modelado basado en agentes (ABM) que permiten crear modelos funcionalmente más próximos a la realidad que los modelos de colas o de dinámicas de sistemas, al permitir la inclusión de la singularidad que implica el modelado a nivel de las personas. Los agentes del modelo presentado, descritos internamente como máquinas de estados, representan a todo el personal del departamento de urgencias y los pacientes que usan este servicio. Un análisis del modelo a través de su implementación en el simulador muestra que el sistema se comporta de manera semejante a un departamento de urgencias real.

The dynamics of the Swiss electricity market : three essays

Executive Summary Electricity is crucial for modern societies, thus it is important to understand the behaviour of electricity markets in order to be prepared to face the consequences of policy changes. The Swiss electricity market is now in a transition stage from a public monopoly to a liberalised market and it is undergoing an "emergent" liberalisation - i.e. liberalisation taking place without proper regulation. The withdrawal of nuclear capacity is also being debated. These two possible changes directly affect the mechanisms for capacity expansion. Thus, in this thesis we concentrate on understanding the dynamics of capacity expansion in the Swiss electricity market. A conceptual model to help understand the dynamics of capacity expansion in the Swiss electricity market is developed an explained in the first essay. We identify a potential risk of imports dependence. In the second essay a System Dynamics model, based on the conceptual model, is developed to evaluate the consequences of three scenarios: a nuclear phase-out, the implementation of a policy for avoiding imports dependence, and the combination of both. We conclude that the Swiss market is not well prepared to face unexpected changes of supply and demand, and we identify a risk of imports dependence, mainly in the case of a nuclear phase-out. The third essay focus on the opportunity cost of hydro-storage power generation, one of the main generation sources in Switzerland. We use and extended version of our model to test different policies for assigning an opportunity cost to hydro-storage power generation. We conclude that the preferred policies are different for different market participants and depend on market structure.

Molecular mechanisms involved in the activation and regulation of the alpha 1-adrenergic receptor subtypes.

The adrenergic receptors (ARs) belong to the superfamily of membrane-bound G protein coupled receptors (GPCRs). Our investigation has focused on the structure-function relationship of the alpha 1b-AR subtype used as the model system for other GPCRs. Site-directed mutagenesis studies have elucidated the structural domains of the alpha 1b-AR involved in ligand binding, G protein coupling or desensitization. In addition, a combined approach using site-directed mutagenesis and molecular dynamics analysis of the alpha 1b-AR has provided information about the potential mechanisms underlying the activation process of the receptor, i.e. its transition from the 'inactive' to the 'active' conformation.

Chronic subdural hematomas treated by burr hole trepanation and a subperiostal drainage system.

OBJECTIVE: Most symptomatic chronic subdural hematomas are treated by subdural drainage. However, a subperiostal (i.e., extracranial) passive closed-drainage system in combination with double burr hole trepanation is used at our institution. Therefore, we wanted to analyze our results and compare them with the alternate treatment strategies reported in the current literature. METHODS: In a retrospective single-center study, we analyzed the data of all patients undergoing double burr hole trepanation with a subperiostal passive closed-drainage system. Data analysis included general patient data, complications, postoperative seizure rate, and outcome. RESULTS: One hundred forty-seven patients underwent surgery for 183 symptomatic chronic subdural hematomas. The perioperative mortality rate was 3.4%. Hematoma persistence or recurrence occurred in 13.1% of the cases. The postoperative seizure rate was 6.6%, and the infection rate was 1.6%, including 3 cases of superficial wound infection and 1 case with deep infection. The reintervention rate was 9.3%, including trepanation in 8.2% of the patients and craniotomy in 1.1%. The overall complication rate was 10.9%. CONCLUSION: Double burr hole trepanation combined with a subperiostal passive closed-drainage system is a technically easy, highly effective, safe, and cost-efficient treatment strategy for symptomatic chronic subdural hematomas. The absence of a drain in direct contact with the hematoma capsule may moderate the risk of postoperative seizure and limit the secondary spread of infection to intracranial compartments.

Artificially Intelligent and Adaptive Methods for Prediction and Analysis of Superheater Fireside Corrosion in Fluidized Bed Boilers

Superheater corrosion causes vast annual losses for the power companies. With a reliable corrosion prediction method, the plants can be designed accordingly, and knowledge of fuel selection and determination of process conditions may be utilized to minimize superheater corrosion. Growing interest to use recycled fuels creates additional demands for the prediction of corrosion potential. Models depending on corrosion theories will fail, if relations between the inputs and the output are poorly known. A prediction model based on fuzzy logic and an artificial neural network is able to improve its performance as the amount of data increases. The corrosion rate of a superheater material can most reliably be detected with a test done in a test combustor or in a commercial boiler. The steel samples can be located in a special, temperature-controlled probe, and exposed to the corrosive environment for a desired time. These tests give information about the average corrosion potential in that environment. Samples may also be cut from superheaters during shutdowns. The analysis ofsamples taken from probes or superheaters after exposure to corrosive environment is a demanding task: if the corrosive contaminants can be reliably analyzed, the corrosion chemistry can be determined, and an estimate of the material lifetime can be given. In cases where the reason for corrosion is not clear, the determination of the corrosion chemistry and the lifetime estimation is more demanding. In order to provide a laboratory tool for the analysis and prediction, a newapproach was chosen. During this study, the following tools were generated: · Amodel for the prediction of superheater fireside corrosion, based on fuzzy logic and an artificial neural network, build upon a corrosion database developed offuel and bed material analyses, and measured corrosion data. The developed model predicts superheater corrosion with high accuracy at the early stages of a project. · An adaptive corrosion analysis tool based on image analysis, constructedas an expert system. This system utilizes implementation of user-defined algorithms, which allows the development of an artificially intelligent system for thetask. According to the results of the analyses, several new rules were developed for the determination of the degree and type of corrosion. By combining these two tools, a user-friendly expert system for the prediction and analyses of superheater fireside corrosion was developed. This tool may also be used for the minimization of corrosion risks by the design of fluidized bed boilers.

Virtuaaliprototyypin käyttö kallioporakoneen dynamiikan analysoinnissa

Työn tavoitteena oli selvittää kaupallisen dynamiikan simulointiohjelmiston soveltuvuus kallioporakoneen dynamiikan analysointiin. Työssä mallinnettiin parametrisoitu virtuaaliprototyyppi uudenlaisella toimintaperiaatteella toimivasta kallioporakoneesta. Virtuaaliprototyyppiä on tarkoitus käyttää fyysisen prototyypin mitoituksessa sekä porakoneen toiminnan simuloinnissa ja suorituskyvyn arvioinnissa ennen ensimmäisen fyysisen prototyypin valmistamista. Mallinnus tehtiin ADAMS -ohjelmistoa ja siihen liitettävää ADAMS/Hydraulics -moduulia käyttäen. Mallinnuksessa kiinnitettiin huomiota erityisesti porakoneessa esiintyvien vuotovirtauksien huomioimiseen. ADAMS -ohjelmisto soveltuu hyvin hydraulisen iskuporakoneen dynaamisten ilmiöiden simulointiin. Koska fyysistä prototyyppiä ei ole vielä olemassa, ei mallin toimintaa voida kuitenkaan tämän tutkimuksen puitteissa verifioida mittauksin. Simuloitujen tulosten perusteella voidaan todeta uuden toimintaperiaatteen olevan käyttökelpoinen kallion poraukseen. Parametrisoitua virtuaaliprototyyppiä voidaan käyttää tehokkaasti hyväksi tuotekehitysvaiheessa sekä se voidaan liittää osaksi laajempaa ja yksityiskohtaisempaa porauslaitteen simulointimallia.

Etelä-Karjalan aluebarometri

Tutkimuksen päätavoitteena oli rakentaa Etelä-Karjalan maakunnan alueellinen suhdannebarometri. Aluebarometrilla kuvataan ja analysoidaan alueen toimialojen tuotannon ja työllisyyden kehitystä sekä nykytilannetta tuoreilla, havainnollisilla ja luotettavilla indikaattoreilla. Tutkimusmenetelmänä on konstruktiivinen tutkimus. Aluebarometri toteutettiin kyselytutkimuksena 454:ltä yritykseltä Etelä-Karjalan alueella keväällä 2002. Tulokset on raportoitu toimialoittain sisältäen kyselytutkimuksen 11 indikaattoria sekä kaksi tilastollista muuttujaa. Teoriaosassa tarkasteltiin aluetalouden rakentumista, aluekehitystä, yritysten sijaintiteorioita ja systeemidynamiikkaa. Barometrin konstruoinnin lisäksi empiirisessä osassa analysoitiin maakunnan yritystoiminnan ja toimialarakenteen tyypillisiä piirteitä sekä selvitettiin barometrin käyttäjäkunnan tietotarpeita. Tutkimustulosten mukaan Etelä-Karjalan yritykset odottavat aluebarometrin indikaattoreiden kehittyvän seuraavan kuuden kuukauden ajanjaksolla lievästi myönteiseen suuntaan. Myönteisintä kehitystä odotetaan myynnin ja Venäjän yleisen suhdannetilanteen suhteen. Toimialoista positiivisimmat odotukset ovat informaatioteknologian, liike-elämän palveluiden, muiden palveluiden sekä kaupan aloilla, heikoimmat puolestaan rakentamisen alalla.

Rasitusten älykäs seuranta

Tässä diplomityössä käsitellään monikappalesysteeminä mallinnetun toimilaitteen tai mekaanisen systeemin kappaleissa vaikuttavien rasitusten, siirtymien ja jännitysten laskentamenetelmiä. Työhön sisällytettyjen menetelmien valinta on toteutettu 2000-luvulla virtuaalisuunnittelua käsittelevissä tiedelehdissä julkaistujen artikkelien pohjalta. Työn tarkoituksena on muodostaa kirjallisuuskatsaus uusien laskentamenetelmien ominaisuuksista ja metodiikasta, mitä voidaan tarvittaessa soveltaa virtuaalisuunnittelun tarpeisiin. Kaksi esiteltävistä menetelmistä on optimointimenetelmiä (RBDO ja ESL). Muissa menetelmissä käsitellään muun muassa venymien rekonstruointia ja hankauskitkasta komponentteihin kohdistuvia jännityksiä. Moving frame-menetelmässä sovelletaan kelluvan koordinaatiston periaatetta, yksi menetelmistä perustuu selkeästi osarakennetekniikkaan ja yhdessä kappaleiden joustokäyttäytymistä mallinnetaan muotofunktioiden avulla. Lisäksi on kolme soveltavaa esimerkkiä rasitusten seurannasta teollisuuskoneissa. Laskentamenetelmät ovat luonteeltaan ja sovelluskelpoisuudeltaan erilaisia. Optimointimenetelmät ovat parhaimmillaan rakenteiden jatkokehitystyössä, siinä missä muut menetelmät soveltuvat joko olemassa olevien rakenteiden mallintamiseen tai kokonaan uusien systeemien suunnittelutyökaluiksi. Tätä eroavuutta voidaan pitää hyvänä asiana, jotta voidaan valita parhaiten omiin tarkoituksiin soveltuva menetelmä.

An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

System-level characterization of Th2 cell development and immune cell responses to ZnO and TiO2 nanoparticles

Asthma and allergy are common diseases and their prevalence is increasing. One of the hypotheses that explains this trend is exposure to inhalable chemicals such as traffi c-related air pollution. Epidemiological research supports this theory, as a correlation between environmental chemicals and allergic respiratory diseases has been found. In addition to ambient airborne particles, one may be exposed to engineered nanosized materials that are actively produced due to their favorable physico-chemical properties compared to their bulk size counterparts. On the cellular level, improper activity of T helper (Th) cells has been connected to allergic reactions. Th cells can differentiate into functionally different effector subsets, which are identifi ed according to their characteristic cytokine profi les resulting in specifi c ability to communicate with other cells. Th2 cells activate humoral immunity and stimulate eradication of extracellular pathogens. However, persistent predominance of Th2 cells is involved in a development of number of allergic diseases. The cytokine environment at the time of antigen recognition is the major factor determining the polarization of a naïve Th cell. Th2 cell differentiation is initiated by IL4, which signals via transcription factor STAT6. Although the importance of this pathway has been evaluated in the mouse studies, the signaling components involved have been largely unknown. The aim of this thesis was to identify molecules, which are under the control of IL4 and STAT6 in Th cells. This was done by using system-level analysis of STAT6 target genes at genome, mRNA and protein level resulting in identifi cation of various genes previously not connected to Th2 cell phenotype acquisition. In the study, STAT6-mediated primary and secondary target genes were dissection from each other and a detailed transcriptional kinetics of Th2 cell polarization of naïve human CD4+ T cells was collected. Integration of these data revealed the hierarchy of molecular events that mediates the differentiation towards Th2 cell phenotype. In addition, the results highlighted the importance of exploiting proteomics tools to complement the studies on STAT6 target genes identifi ed through transcriptional profi ling. In the last subproject, the effects of the exposure with ZnO and TiO2 nanoparticles was analyzed in Jurkat T cell line and in primary human monocyte-derived macrophages and dendritic cells to evaluate their toxicity and potential to cause infl ammation. Identifi cation of ZnO-derived gene expression showed that the same nanoparticles may elicit markedly distinctive responses in different cell types, thus underscoring the need for unbiased profi ling of target genes and pathways affected. The results gave additional proof that the cellular response to nanosized ZnO is due to leached Zn2+ ions. The approach used in ZnO and TiO2 nanoparticle study demonstrated the value of assessing nanoparticle responses through a toxicogenomics approach. The increased knowledge of Th2 cell signaling will hopefully reveal new therapeutic nodes and eventually improve our possibilities to prevent and tackle allergic infl ammatory diseases.

The Impact of National Innovation System on Entrepreneurial Venture Creation Process

The important role of entrepreneurship in countries’ economic development and overall society well-being is widely recognized by researchers, experts as well as policy makers. Every phase of the process of starting a new business is related to the interaction with at least one player of country innovation system and therefore the efficiency of this interaction may have an influence on the success of whole entrepreneurial process and consequently on the willingness of potential entrepreneurs to engage into this process. The study proposes a System Dynamics model for studying the impact of National Innovation System (NIS) on the entrepreneurial venture creation process. The developed model also takes country population aspect into account and provides results for estimation the effect various demographic tendencies on the process performance. The special impact is made on possible ways to facilitate the development of entrepreneurial framework conditions. Business incubators are seen as one of the effective tool for accomplishing such task. The study also provides the result for estimation of possible impact arising from properly functioned Business Incubators.

Chaos in a Two-Degree of Freedom Duffing Oscillator

High dimensional dynamical systems has intricate behavior either on temporal or on spatial evolution properties. Nevertheless, most of the work on chaotic dynamics has been concentrated on temporal behavior of low-dimensional systems. This contribution is concerned with the chaotic response of a two-degree of freedom Duffing oscillator. Since the equations of motion are associated with a five-dimensional system, the analysis is performed by considering two Duffing oscillators, both with single-degree of freedom, coupled by a spring-dashpot system. With this assumption, it is possible to analyze the transmissibility of motion between the two oscillators.

Quantitative refinement of reaction-based biomodels

In the field of molecular biology, scientists adopted for decades a reductionist perspective in their inquiries, being predominantly concerned with the intricate mechanistic details of subcellular regulatory systems. However, integrative thinking was still applied at a smaller scale in molecular biology to understand the underlying processes of cellular behaviour for at least half a century. It was not until the genomic revolution at the end of the previous century that we required model building to account for systemic properties of cellular activity. Our system-level understanding of cellular function is to this day hindered by drastic limitations in our capability of predicting cellular behaviour to reflect system dynamics and system structures. To this end, systems biology aims for a system-level understanding of functional intraand inter-cellular activity. Modern biology brings about a high volume of data, whose comprehension we cannot even aim for in the absence of computational support. Computational modelling, hence, bridges modern biology to computer science, enabling a number of assets, which prove to be invaluable in the analysis of complex biological systems, such as: a rigorous characterization of the system structure, simulation techniques, perturbations analysis, etc. Computational biomodels augmented in size considerably in the past years, major contributions being made towards the simulation and analysis of large-scale models, starting with signalling pathways and culminating with whole-cell models, tissue-level models, organ models and full-scale patient models. The simulation and analysis of models of such complexity very often requires, in fact, the integration of various sub-models, entwined at different levels of resolution and whose organization spans over several levels of hierarchy. This thesis revolves around the concept of quantitative model refinement in relation to the process of model building in computational systems biology. The thesis proposes a sound computational framework for the stepwise augmentation of a biomodel. One starts with an abstract, high-level representation of a biological phenomenon, which is materialised into an initial model that is validated against a set of existing data. Consequently, the model is refined to include more details regarding its species and/or reactions. The framework is employed in the development of two models, one for the heat shock response in eukaryotes and the second for the ErbB signalling pathway. The thesis spans over several formalisms used in computational systems biology, inherently quantitative: reaction-network models, rule-based models and Petri net models, as well as a recent formalism intrinsically qualitative: reaction systems. The choice of modelling formalism is, however, determined by the nature of the question the modeler aims to answer. Quantitative model refinement turns out to be not only essential in the model development cycle, but also beneficial for the compilation of large-scale models, whose development requires the integration of several sub-models across various levels of resolution and underlying formal representations.