Stochastic Assessment Of Environmental Flows In Semiarid Environments

The regimen of environmental flows (EF) must be included as terms of environmental demand in the management of water resources. Even though there are numerous methods for the computation of EF, the criteria applied at different steps in the calculation process are quite subjective whereas the results are fixed values that must be meet by water planners. This study presents a friendly-user tool for the assessment of the probability of compliance of a certain EF scenario with the natural regimen in a semiarid area in southern Spain. 250 replications of a 25-yr period of different hydrological variables (rainfall, minimum and maximum flows, ...) were obtained at the study site from the combination of Monte Carlo technique and local hydrological relationships. Several assumptions are made such as the independence of annual rainfall from year to year and the variability of occurrence of the meteorological agents, mainly precipitation as the main source of uncertainty. Inputs to the tool are easily selected from a first menu and comprise measured rainfall data, EF values and the hydrological relationships for at least a 20-yr period. The outputs are the probabilities of compliance of the different components of the EF for the study period. From this, local optimization can be applied to establish EF components with a certain level of compliance in the study period. Different options for graphic output and analysis of results are included in terms of graphs and tables in several formats. This methodology turned out to be a useful tool for the implementation of an uncertainty analysis within the scope of environmental flows in water management and allowed the simulation of the impacts of several water resource development scenarios in the study site.

Optimization Of Groundwater Remediation With New Efficient Parallel Algorithm For Global Optimization

Application of optimization algorithm to PDE modeling groundwater remediation can greatly reduce remediation cost. However, groundwater remediation analysis requires a computational expensive simulation, therefore, effective parallel optimization could potentially greatly reduce computational expense. The optimization algorithm used in this research is Parallel Stochastic radial basis function. This is designed for global optimization of computationally expensive functions with multiple local optima and it does not require derivatives. In each iteration of the algorithm, an RBF is updated based on all the evaluated points in order to approximate expensive function. Then the new RBF surface is used to generate the next set of points, which will be distributed to multiple processors for evaluation. The criteria of selection of next function evaluation points are estimated function value and distance from all the points known. Algorithms created for serial computing are not necessarily efficient in parallel so Parallel Stochastic RBF is different algorithm from its serial ancestor. The application for two Groundwater Superfund Remediation sites, Umatilla Chemical Depot, and Former Blaine Naval Ammunition Depot. In the study, the formulation adopted treats pumping rates as decision variables in order to remove plume of contaminated groundwater. Groundwater flow and contamination transport is simulated with MODFLOW-MT3DMS. For both problems, computation takes a large amount of CPU time, especially for Blaine problem, which requires nearly fifty minutes for a simulation for a single set of decision variables. Thus, efficient algorithm and powerful computing resource are essential in both cases. The results are discussed in terms of parallel computing metrics i.e. speedup and efficiency. We find that with use of up to 24 parallel processors, the results of the parallel Stochastic RBF algorithm are excellent with speed up efficiencies close to or exceeding 100%.

Simulation-based smoothing and filtering in factor stochastic volatility models : two econometric applications

In this article we use factor models to describe a certain class of covariance structure for financiaI time series models. More specifical1y, we concentrate on situations where the factor variances are modeled by a multivariate stochastic volatility structure. We build on previous work by allowing the factor loadings, in the factor mo deI structure, to have a time-varying structure and to capture changes in asset weights over time motivated by applications with multi pIe time series of daily exchange rates. We explore and discuss potential extensions to the models exposed here in the prediction area. This discussion leads to open issues on real time implementation and natural model comparisons.

Simulation -based smoothing and filtering in factor stochastic volatility models : two econometric applications (July-2001)

The past decade has wítenessed a series of (well accepted and defined) financial crises periods in the world economy. Most of these events aI,"e country specific and eventually spreaded out across neighbor countries, with the concept of vicinity extrapolating the geographic maps and entering the contagion maps. Unfortunately, what contagion represents and how to measure it are still unanswered questions. In this article we measure the transmission of shocks by cross-market correlation\ coefficients following Forbes and Rigobon's (2000) notion of shift-contagion,. Our main contribution relies upon the use of traditional factor model techniques combined with stochastic volatility mo deIs to study the dependence among Latin American stock price indexes and the North American indexo More specifically, we concentrate on situations where the factor variances are modeled by a multivariate stochastic volatility structure. From a theoretical perspective, we improve currently available methodology by allowing the factor loadings, in the factor model structure, to have a time-varying structure and to capture changes in the series' weights over time. By doing this, we believe that changes and interventions experienced by those five countries are well accommodated by our models which learns and adapts reasonably fast to those economic and idiosyncratic shocks. We empirically show that the time varying covariance structure can be modeled by one or two common factors and that some sort of contagion is present in most of the series' covariances during periods of economical instability, or crisis. Open issues on real time implementation and natural model comparisons are thoroughly discussed.

Computer simulation of the stochastic transport equation

Trabalho apresentado no 37th Conference on Stochastic Processes and their Applications - July 28 - August 01, 2014 -Universidad de Buenos Aires

Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Static simulation of bulk and selected surfaces of anatase TiO2

A theoretical investigation has been carried out to characterize bulk and selected surfaces of anatase TiO2. The calculations are performed using a B3LYP hybrid functional and 6-31G basis set within the periodic density functional approximation. Optimization procedures have been employed to determine the equilibrium geometry of the crystal and slab surface models. The compressibility, band structure, and the bulk and surface charge distributions are reported. The surface relative energies are identified to follow the sequence: (001) < (101) < (100) much less than (110) < < < (111), from the most stable surface to the least stable one. Relaxation of (001) and (101) surfaces are moderate, with no displacements exceeding; approximate to0.19 Angstrom. The theoretical results are compared with previous theoretical studies and available experimental data. (C) 2001 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Numerical simulation of Ginzburg-Landau-Langevin equations

This work is concerned with non-equilibrium phenomena, with focus on the numerical simulation of the relaxation of non-conserved order parameters described by stochastic kinetic equations known as Ginzburg-Landau-Langevin (GLL) equations. We propose methods for solving numerically these type of equations, with additive and multiplicative noises. Illustrative applications of the methods are presented for different GLL equations, with emphasis on equations incorporating memory effects.

Numerical simulation of magnetic-field-enhanced plasma immersion ion implantation in cylindrical geometry

Recent studies have demonstrated that the sheath dynamics in plasma immersion ion implantation (PIII) is significantly affected by an external magnetic field. In this paper, a two-dimensional computer simulation of a magnetic-field-enhanced PHI system is described. Negative bias voltage is applied to a cylindrical target located on the axis of a grounded vacuum chamber filled with uniform molecular nitrogen plasma. A static magnetic field is created by a small coil installed inside the target holder. The vacuum chamber is filled with background nitrogen gas to form a plasma in which collisions of electrons and neutrals are simulated by the Monte Carlo algorithm. It is found that a high-density plasma is formed around the target due to the intense background gas ionization by the magnetized electrons drifting in the crossed E x B fields. The effect of the magnetic field intensity, the target bias, and the gas pressure on the sheath dynamics and implantation current of the PHI system is investigated.

Combining genetic algorithm and simulated annealing: A molecular geometry optimization study

We introduce a new hybrid approach to determine the ground state geometry of molecular systems. Firstly, we compared the ability of genetic algorithm (GA) and simulated annealing (SA) to find the lowest energy geometry of silicon clusters with six and 10 atoms. This comparison showed that GA exhibits fast initial convergence, but its performance deteriorates as it approaches the desired global extreme. Interestingly, SA showed a complementary convergence pattern, in addition to high accuracy. Our new procedure combines selected features from GA and SA to achieve weak dependence on initial parameters, parallel search strategy, fast convergence and high accuracy. This hybrid algorithm outperforms GA and SA by one order of magnitude for small silicon clusters (Si6 and Si10). Next, we applied the hybrid method to study the geometry of a 20-atom silicon cluster. It was able to find an original geometry, apparently lower in energy than those previously described in literature. In principle, our procedure can be applied successfully to any molecular system. © 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

Two dimensional computer simulation of plasma immersion ion implantation

The biggest advantage of plasma immersion ion implantation (PIII) is the capability of treating objects with irregular geometry without complex manipulation of the target holder. The effectiveness of this approach relies on the uniformity of the incident ion dose. Unfortunately, perfect dose uniformity is usually difficult to achieve when treating samples of complex shape. The problems arise from the non-uniform plasma density and expansion of plasma sheath. A particle-in-cell computer simulation is used to study the time-dependent evolution of the plasma sheath surrounding two-dimensional objects during process of plasma immersion ion implantation. Before starting the implantation phase, steady-state nitrogen plasma is established inside the simulation volume by using ionization of gas precursor with primary electrons. The plasma self-consistently evolves to a non-uniform density distribution, which is used as initial density distribution for the implantation phase. As a result, we can obtain a more realistic description of the plasma sheath expansion and dynamics. Ion current density on the target, average impact energy, and trajectories of the implanted ions were calculated for three geometrical shapes. Large deviations from the uniform dose distribution have been observed for targets with irregular shapes. In addition, effect of secondary electron emission has been included in our simulation and no qualitative modifications to the sheath dynamics have been noticed. However, the energetic secondary electrons change drastically the plasma net balance and also pose significant X-ray hazard. Finally, an axial magnetic field has been added to the calculations and the possibility for magnetic insulation of secondary electrons has been proven.

A New Approach to Reducing Search Space and Increasing Efficiency in Simulation Optimization Problems via the Fuzzy-DEA-BCC

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Architectures, stability and optimization for clock distribution networks

Synchronous telecommunication networks, distributed control systems and integrated circuits have its accuracy of operation dependent on the existence of a reliable time basis signal extracted from the line data stream and acquirable to each node. In this sense, the existence of a sub-network (inside the main network) dedicated to the distribution of the clock signals is crucially important. There are different solutions for the architecture of the time distribution sub-network and choosing one of them depends on cost, precision, reliability and operational security. In this work we expose: (i) the possible time distribution networks and their usual topologies and arrangements. (ii) How parameters of the network nodes can affect the reachability and stability of the synchronous state of a network. (iii) Optimizations methods for synchronous networks which can provide low cost architectures with operational precision, reliability and security. (C) 2011 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.