A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

A framework for selecting appropriate remotely sensed data dimensions for environmental monitoring and management

Two major factors are likely to impact the utilisation of remotely sensed data in the near future: (1)an increase in the number and availability of commercial and non-commercial image data sets with a range of spatial, spectral and temporal dimensions, and (2) increased access to image display and analysis software through GIS. A framework was developed to provide an objective approach to selecting remotely sensed data sets for specific environmental monitoring problems. Preliminary applications of the framework have provided successful approaches for monitoring disturbed and restored wetlands in southern California.

A framework to monitor sustainability in the grains industry

Community awareness of the sustainable use of land, water and vegetation resources is increasing. The sustainable use of these resources is pivotal to sustainable farming systems. However, techniques for monitoring the sustainable management of these resources are poorly understood and untested. We propose a framework to benchmark and monitor resources in the grains industry. Eight steps are listed below to achieve these objectives: (i) define industry issues; (ii) identify the issues through growers, stakeholder and community consultation; (iii) identify indicators (measurable attributes, properties or characteristics) of sustainability through consultation with growers, stakeholders, experts and community members, relating to: crop productivity; resource maintenance/enhancement; biodiversity; economic viability; community viability; and institutional structure; (iv) develop and use selection criteria to select indicators that consider: responsiveness to change; ease of capture; community acceptance and involvement; interpretation; measurement error; stability, frequency and cost of measurement; spatial scale issues; and mapping capability in space and through time. The appropriateness of indicators can be evaluated using a decision making system such as a multiobjective decision support system (MO-DSS, a method to assist in decision making from multiple and conflicting objectives); (v) involve stakeholders and the community in the definition of goals and setting benchmarking and monitoring targets for sustainable farming; (vi) take preventive and corrective/remedial action; (vii) evaluate effectiveness of actions taken; and (viii) revise indicators as part of a continual improvement principle designed to achieve best management practice for sustainable farming systems. The major recommendations are to: (i) implement the framework for resources (land, water and vegetation, economic, community and institution) benchmarking and monitoring, and integrate this process with current activities so that awareness, implementation and evolution of sustainable resource management practices become normal practice in the grains industry; (ii) empower the grains industry to take the lead by using relevant sustainability indicators to benchmark and monitor resources; (iii) adopt a collaborative approach by involving various industry, community, catchment management and government agency groups to minimise implementation time. Monitoring programs such as Waterwatch, Soilcheck, Grasscheck and Topcrop should be utilised; (iv) encourage the adoption of a decision making system by growers and industry representatives as a participatory decision and evaluation process. Widespread use of sustainability indicators would assist in validating and refining these indicators and evaluating sustainable farming systems. The indicators could also assist in evaluating best management practices for the grains industry.

Hemichordates and deuterostome evolution: robust molecular phylogenetic support for a hemichordate plus echinoderm clade

Hemichordates were traditionally allied to the chordates, but recent molecular analyses have suggested that hemichordates are a sister group to the echinoderms, a relationship that has important consequences for the interpretation of the evolution of deuterostome body plans. However, the molecular phylogenetic analyses to date have not provided robust support for the hemichordate + echinoderm clade. We use a maximum likelihood framework, including the parametric bootstrap, to reanalyze DNA data from complete mitochondrial genomes and nuclear 18S rRNA. This approach provides the first statistically significant support for the hemichordate + echinoderm clade from molecular data. This grouping implies that the ancestral deuterostome had features that included an adult with a pharynx and a dorsal nerve cord and an indirectly developing dipleurula-like larva.

Mortality variation across Australia: descriptive data for States and Territories, and statistical divisions

OBJECTIVE: To describe variation in all cause and selected cause-specific mortality rates across Australia. METHODS: Mortality and population data for 1997 were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. All cause and selected cause-specific mortality rates were calculated and directly standardised to the 1997 Australian population in 5-year age groups. Selected major causes of death included cancer, coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, accidents and suicide. Rates are reported by statistical division, and State and Territory. RESULTS: All cause age-standardised mortality was 6.98 per 1000 in 1997 and this varied 2-fold from a low in the statistical division of Pilbara, Western Australia (5.78, 95% confidence interval 5.06-6.56), to a high in Northern Territory-excluding Darwin (11.30, 10.67-11.98). Similar mortality variation (all p<0.0001) exists for cancer (1.01-2.23 per 1000) and coronary artery disease (0.99-2.23 per 1000), the two biggest killers. Larger variation (all p<0.0001) exists for cerebrovascular disease (0.7-11.8 per 10,000), diabetes (0.7-6.9 per 10,000), accidents (1.7-7.2 per 10,000) and suicide (0.6-3.8 per 10,000). Less marked variation was observed when analysed by State and Territory. but Northern Territory consistently has the highest age-standardised mortality rates. CONCLUSIONS: Analysed by statistical division, substantial mortality gradients exist across Australia, suggesting an inequitable distribution of the determinants of health. Further research is required to better understand this heterogeneity.

Developing a framework for assessment of the environmental determinants of walking and cycling

The focus for interventions and research on physical activity has moved away from vigorous activity to moderate-intensity activities, such as walking. In addition, a social ecological approach to physical activity research and practice is recommended. This approach considers the influence of the environment and policies on physical activity. Although there is limited empirical published evidence related to the features of the physical environment that influence physical activity, urban planning and transport agencies have developed policies and strategies that have the potential to influence whether people walk or cycle in their neighbourhood. This paper presents the development of a framework of the potential environmental influences on walking and cycling based on published evidence and policy literature, interviews with experts and a Delphi study. The framework includes four features: functional, safety, aesthetic and destination; as well as the hypothesised factors that contribute to each of these features of the environment. In addition, the Delphi experts determined the perceived relative importance of these factors. Based on these factors, a data collection tool will be developed and the frameworks will be tested through the collection of environmental information on neighbourhoods, where data on the walking and cycling patterns have been collected previously. Identifying the environmental factors that influence walking and cycling will allow the inclusion of a public health perspective as well as those of urban planning and transport in the design of built environments. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd., All rights reserved.

RFID adoption: framework and survey in large Brazilian companies

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to provide a framework for radio frequency identification (RFID) technology adoption considering company size and five dimensions of analysis: RFID applications, expected benefits business drivers or motivations barriers and inhibitors, and organizational factors. Design/methodology/approach - A framework for RFID adoption derived from literature and the practical experience on the subject is developed. This framework provides a conceptual basis for analyzing a survey conducted with 114 companies in Brazil. Findings - Many companies have been developing RFID initiatives in order to identify potential applications and map benefits associated with their implementation. The survey highlights the importance business drivers in the RFID implementation stage, and that companies implement RFID focusing on a few specific applications. However, there is a weak association between expected benefits and business challenges with the current level of RFID technology adoption in Brazil. Research limitations/implications - The paper is not exhaustive, since RFID adoption in Brazil is at early stages during the survey timeline. Originality/value - The main contribution of the paper is that it yields a framework for analyzing RFID technology adoption. The authors use this framework to analyze RFID adoption in Brazil, which proved to be a useful one for identifying key issues for technology adoption. The paper is useful to any researchers or practitioners who are focused on technology adoption, in particular, RFID technology.

Computational methods for prediction of T-cell epitopes - a framework for modelling, testing, and applications

Computational models complement laboratory experimentation for efficient identification of MHC-binding peptides and T-cell epitopes. Methods for prediction of MHC-binding peptides include binding motifs, quantitative matrices, artificial neural networks, hidden Markov models, and molecular modelling. Models derived by these methods have been successfully used for prediction of T-cell epitopes in cancer, autoimmunity, infectious disease, and allergy. For maximum benefit, the use of computer models must be treated as experiments analogous to standard laboratory procedures and performed according to strict standards. This requires careful selection of data for model building, and adequate testing and validation. A range of web-based databases and MHC-binding prediction programs are available. Although some available prediction programs for particular MHC alleles have reasonable accuracy, there is no guarantee that all models produce good quality predictions. In this article, we present and discuss a framework for modelling, testing, and applications of computational methods used in predictions of T-cell epitopes. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Statistical Study of the Association of Seven Dental Anomalies in the Brazilian Population

The objective of this study was to show the association patterns among seven types of dental anomalies (second pre-molar agenesis, upper side incisive reduced in size, lower first molar infra-ochlesis, enamel hypoplasia, first molar ectopic eruption, supra numerous teeth and upper canine ectopic eruption) in a population sample without dental treatment ranging in age from 7 to 14. A total of 172 patients were attended and underwent the clinical examination at the Clinica Infantil da Fundacao Educacional de Barretos. Eleven patients from this total were selected according to a first dental anomaly diagnosis and submitted to panoramic radiography. A significant association (p < 0.05) was detected among six pairs of anomalies (second pre-molar agenesis x first pre-molar ectopic eruption; second pre-molar agenesis x lower first molar infra-ochlesis; second pre-molar agenesis x upper side incisive reduced in size; supra numerous teeth x reduced size upper side incisive; first pre-molar ectopic eruption x enamel hypoplasia; lower first molar infra-ochlesis x upper side incisive reduced in size) suggesting a common genetic origin for these conditions. The association was not significant in only one case where there was anomaly sharing by the patients. The existence of an anomaly is clinically relevant for early diagnosis of a possible association and an anomaly can indicate an increased risk of other anomalies.

Career counseling: Applying the systems theory framework of career development

In recent years, career development and career counseling have increasingly been informed by concepts emanating from the constructivist worldview. For example, the Systems Theory Framework (STF; M. McMahon, 2002; M. McMahon I W. Patton, 1995; W. Patton I M. McMahon, 1997, 1999) of career development has been proposed as a metatheoretical account of career development. Furthermore, its theoretical constructs may be applied to career counseling. Thus, the STF provides a theoretical and practical consistency to career counseling and addresses concerns about a gulf between career theory and practice. This article discusses the practical application of the STF of career development as a guide to career counseling.

Multicultural career counseling: Theoretical applications of the systems theory framework

Increasing recognition of cultural influences on career development requires expanded theoretical and practical perspectives. Theories of career development need to explicate views of culture and provide direction for career counseling with clients who are culturally diverse. The Systems Theory Framework (STF) is a theoretical foundation that accounts for systems of influence on people's career development, including individual, social, and environmental/societal contexts. The discussion provides a rationale for systemic approaches in multicultural career counseling and introduces the central theoretical tenets of the STF. Through applications of the STF, career counselors are challenged to expand their roles and levels of intervention in multicultural career counseling.

Massage for Low Back Pain An Updated Systematic Review Within the Framework of the Cochrane Back Review Group

Study Design. Systematic Review. Objectives. To assess the effects of massage therapy for nonspecific low back pain. Summary of Background Data. Low back pain is one of the most common and costly musculoskeletal problems in modern society. Proponents of massage therapy claim it can minimize pain and disability, and speed return to normal function. Methods. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL from their beginning to May 2008. We also searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (The Cochrane Library 2006, issue 3), HealthSTAR and Dissertation abstracts up to 2006. There were no language restrictions. References in the included studies and in reviews of the literature were screened. The studies had to be randomized or quasi-randomized trials investigating the use of any type of massage (using the hands or a mechanical device) as a treatment for nonspecific low back pain. Two review authors selected the studies, assessed the risk of bias using the criteria recommended by the Cochrane Back Review Group, and extracted the data using standardized forms. Both qualitative and meta-analyses were performed. Results. Thirteen randomized trials were included. Eight had a high risk and 5 had a low risk of bias. One study was published in German and the rest in English. Massage was compared to an inert therapy (sham treatment) in 2 studies that showed that massage was superior for pain and function on both short- and long-term follow-ups. In 8 studies, massage was compared to other active treatments. They showed that massage was similar to exercises, and massage was superior to joint mobilization, relaxation therapy, physical therapy, acupuncture, and self-care education. One study showed that reflexology on the feet had no effect on pain and functioning. The beneficial effects of massage in patients with chronic low back pain lasted at least 1 year after the end of the treatment. Two studies compared 2 different techniques of massage. One concluded that acupuncture massage produces better results than classic (Swedish) massage and another concluded that Thai massage produces similar results to classic (Swedish) massage. Conclusion. Massage might be beneficial for patients with subacute and chronic nonspecific low back pain, especially when combined with exercises and education. The evidence suggests that acupuncture massage is more effective than classic massage, but this need confirmation. More studies are needed to confirm these conclusions, to assess the impact of massage on return-to-work, and to determine cost-effectiveness of massage as an intervention for low back pain.

A framework for specification-based testing

Test templates and a test template framework are introduced as useful concepts in specification-based testing. The framework can be defined using any model-based specification notation and used to derive tests from model-based specifications-in this paper, it is demonstrated using the Z notation. The framework formally defines test data sets and their relation to the operations in a specification and to other test data sets, providing structure to the testing process. Flexibility is preserved, so that many testing strategies can be used. Important application areas of the framework are discussed, including refinement of test data, regression testing, and test oracles.

Statistical questions - Comment

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