Modelling Long-Run Relationship between Spot and Future Prices of Different Commodities

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether there exists any kind of relationship between the spot and future prices of the different commodities or not. Commodities like cocoa, coffee, crude oil, gold, natural gas and silver are considered from January 3, 2000 to December 31, 2012. For this purpose, ADF test and KPSS test are used in testing the stationarity whereas Johansen Cointegration test is used in testing the long-run relationship. Johansen co-integration test exhibits that there at least 5 co-integrating pairs out of 6 except crude oil. Moreover, the result of Granger Causality supports the fact that if two or more than two time series tend to be co-integrated there exists either uni-directional or bi-directional relationship. However, our results reveled that although there exists the co-integration between the variable, one might not granger causes another .VAR model is also used to measure the proportion of effects. These findings will help the derivative market and arbitragers in developing the strategies to gain the maximum profit in the financial market.

Brazil on the spot: Rio+20, sustainability and a role for science

Rio +20, or the United Nations Conference for Sustainable Development, will take place at the end of this month of June 2012. In this paper, our central argument is that Brazil, as the host of Rio+20, has a historic opportunity to make the conference a success and take a decisive step in becoming a world leader in the shift from the traditional development paradigm to a new, sustainable development paradigm. To do that, Brazil will have to resolve a paradox: on the one hand the country has modern legislation and world class science, and on the other hand very poor social and environmental decision-making in recent times. In this column, we examine the green economy as a trajectory that leads to sustainable development and describe some pilot experiences at the sub-national level in Brazil. We discuss how science, and particularly plant sciences, will be essential to the transition to sustainable development. Finally, we propose immediate actions that we call upon the Brazilian government to commit to and to announce during this pivotal Rio+20 moment, which should serve as a milestone for all nations in building a sustainable future.

Forecasting financial weather - can we foresee market sentiment? Quantitative analysis of nodal prices in the New Zealand Electricity Spot Market

Time series of hourly electricity spot prices have peculiar properties. Electricity is by its nature difficult to store and has to be available on demand. There are many reasons for wanting to understand correlations in price movements, e.g. risk management purposes. The entire analysis carried out in this thesis has been applied to the New Zealand nodal electricity prices: offer prices (from 29 May 2002 to 31 March 2009) and final prices (from 1 January 1999 to 31 March 2009). In this paper, such natural factors as location of the node and generation type in the node that effects the correlation between nodal prices have been reviewed. It was noticed that the geographical factor affects the correlation between nodes more than others. Therefore, the visualisation of correlated nodes was done. However, for the offer prices the clear separation of correlated and not correlated nodes was not obtained. Finally, it was concluded that location factor most strongly affects correlation of electricity nodal prices; problems in visualisation probably associated with power losses when the power is transmitted over long distance.

Spot urine porphyrins/creatinine ratio profile of healthy Brazilian individuals adjusted for personal habits

Changes in urinary porphyrin excretion may be the result of hereditary causes and/or from environmental or occupational exposure. The objective of this study was to measure the amount of some porphyrins in spot urine samples obtained from volunteers randomly selected from a healthy adult population of São Paulo with a sensitive HPLC method and to estimate normal ranges for a non-exposed population. Spot urine samples were collected from 126 subjects (both genders, 18 to 65 years old) not occupationally exposed to porphyrinogenic agents. Porphyrin fractions were separated on RP-18 HPLC column eluted with a methanol/ammonium acetate buffer gradient, pH 4.0, and measured fluorometrically (excitation 405 nm/emission 620 nm). The amount of porphyrins was corrected for urinary creatinine excretion. Only 8-carboxyl (uro) and 4-carboxyl (copro) porphyrins were quantified as µg/g creatinine. Data regarding age, gender, occupational activities, smoking and drinking habits were analyzed by Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Uroporphyrin results did not differ significantly between the subgroups studied. Copro and uro + copro porphyrins were significantly different for smokers (P = 0.008) and occupational activities (P = 0.004). With respect to alcohol consumption, only men drinking >20 g/week showed significant differences in the levels of copro (P = 0.022) and uro + copro porphyrins (P = 0.012). The 2.5-97.5th percentile limit values, excluding those for subjects with an alcohol drinking habit >20 g/week, were 0-20.8, 11.7-93.1, and 15.9-102.9 µg/g creatinine for uro, copro and uro + copro porphyrins, respectively. These percentile limit values can be proposed as a first attempt to provide urinary porphyrin reference values for our population, serving for an early diagnosis of porphyrinopathies or as biomarkers of exposure to porphyrinogenic agents.

Hydrologisen tilanteen ja tuulivoimatuotannon muutosten vaikutus vesiarvoihin pohjoismaisilla sähkön spot-markkinoilla

Vesivoimalla on merkittävä rooli pohjoismaisessa sähköntuotantojärjestelmässä. Spot-markkinoille tarjottavan vesivoiman hinta riippuu vaihtoehtoisen tuotannon hinnasta ja odotetusta vesivoimantuottajien käytettävissä olevasta veteen sitoutuneen potentiaalienergian määrästä. Hydrologisella tilanteella tarkoitetaan tässä tämän potentiaalienergian poikkeamaa normaalitasostaan. Viime vuosina tuulivoimatuotanto pohjoismaisella sähkömarkkina-alueella on kasvanut voimakkaasti, ja on tullut aiheelliseksi tarkastella, millaisia vaikutuksia tällä on vesivoimantuottajien toimintaan. Työssä määritellään vesivoimalle vaihtoehtoisen sähköntuotannon tuotantokustannus, joka pitkällä aikavälillä toimii vertailutasona, jonka perusteella vesivoimantuottajat määrittävät markkinoilla tarjontahinnan tuotannolleen. Tarkastellaan, kuinka hydrologisen tilanteen ja vaihtoehtoisen tuotannon tuotantokustannusten muutokset vaikuttavat vesiarvoon, joka on hinta, jolla hintariippuvaista eli säätyvää vesivoimaa tarjotaan spot-markkinoille. Todetaan, että hydrologisen tilanteen vahvistuminen ja vaihtoehtoisen tuotantokustannuksen aleneminen alentavat vesiarvoja. Todetaan lisäksi, että tuulivoima vaikuttaa sähkön hinnanmuodostukseen markkinoilla samankaltaisesti kuin hintariippumaton vesivoimatuotanto. Esitetään aikasarjamalli vesivoimatuotannon hintariippuvuuden mallintamiseksi. Vertaillaan vesivoimatuottajien toimintaa kahdella vesivoimatuotantoa sisältävällä hinta-alueella, joista toisella tuulivoimatuotanto on kasvanut voimakkaammin kuin toisella. Havaitaan, että molemmilla hinta-alueilla hydrologisen tilanteen vahvistuminen on alentanut ja heikkeneminen nostanut vesiarvoja. Lisäksi havaitaan, että alueella, jonka tuulivoimatuotanto on kasvanut enemmän, vesiarvot ovat laskeneet suhteessa alueen, jolla tuulivoimatuotanto on kasvanut vähemmän, vesiarvoihin. Tuulivoiman voidaan todeta syrjäyttäneen markkinoilta tuotantokustannuksiltaan kalliimpaa tuotantoa.

Propidium monoazide (PMA) and ethidium bromide monoazide(EMA) improve DNA array and high-throughput sequencing ofporcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus identification

Pan-viral DNA array (PVDA) and high-throughput sequencing (HTS) are useful tools to identify novel viruses of emerging diseases. However, both techniques have difficulties to identify viruses in clinical samples because of the host genomic nucleic acid content (hg/cont). Both propidium monoazide (PMA) and ethidium bromide monoazide (EMA) have the capacity to bind free DNA/RNA, but are cell membrane-impermeable. Thus, both are unable to bind protected nucleic acid such as viral genomes within intact virions. However, EMA/PMA modified genetic material cannot be amplified by enzymes. In order to assess the potential of EMA/PMA to lower the presence of amplifiable hg/cont in samples and improve virus detection, serum and lung tissue homogenates were spiked with porcine reproductive and respiratory virus (PRRSV) and were processed with EMA/PMA. In addition, PRRSV RT-qPCR positive clinical samples were also tested. EMA/PMA treatments significantly decreased amplifiable hg/cont and significantly increased the number of PVDA positive probes and their signal intensity compared to untreated spiked lung samples. EMA/PMA treatments also increased the sensitivity of HTS by increasing the number of specific PRRSV reads and the PRRSV percentage of coverage. Interestingly, EMA/PMA treatments significantly increased the sensitivity of PVDA and HTS in two out of three clinical tissue samples. Thus, EMA/PMA treatments offer a new approach to lower the amplifiable hg/cont in clinical samples and increase the success of PVDA and HTS to identify viruses.

White Spot Syndrone Virus in Penaeids: Histopathology, Development of Polyclonal Antisera and a Cocktail Vaccine

The present study is the first comprehensive approach towards histopathology of White Spot Syndrome Virus (WSSV) in Penaeus indicus. WSSV could be demonstrated in the nuclei of all tissues, except those of midgut, subjected of electron microscopic observation. They were the nuclei of gill, foregut, heart, hepatopancreatic connective tissue, hindgut, nerve and dorsal aorta. A comparison was made between the electron microscopic and histopathological observations and a greater degree of correlation between the two in depicting the severity of the infection of the infection was unraveled. The study also illustrated variations in response and susceptibility of various tissues to WSSV infection. Accordingly, out of the tissues investigated, gill, foregut, hindgut and dorsal aorta exhibited advanced viral multiplication than the other tissues such as heart, midgut, nerve and hepatopancreas. Even though hepatocytes were not infected the connective tissue nuclei were packed with virions.

Investigations on Ultrasonic Transducer Array Systems for NDE of Underwater Pipelines

The main objective of carrying out this investigation is to develop suitable transducer array systems so that underwater pipeline inspection could be carried out in a much better way, a focused beam and electronic steering can reduce inspection time as well. Better results are obtained by optimizing the array parameters. The spacing between the elements is assumed to be half the wavelength so that the interelement interaction is minimum. For NDT applications these arrays are operated at MHz range. The wavelengths become very small in these frequency ranges. Then the size of the array elements becomes very small, requiring hybrid construction techniques for their fabrication. Transducer elements have been fabricated using PVDF as the active, mild steel as the backing and conducting silver preparation as the bonding materials. The transducer is operated in the (3,3) mode. The construction of a high frequency array is comparatively complicated. The interelement spacing between the transducer elements becomes considerably small when high frequencies are considered. It becomes very difficult to construct the transducer manually. The electrode connections to the elements can produce significant loading effect. The array has to be fabricated using hybrid construction techniques. The active materials has to be deposited on a proper substrate and etching techniques are required to fabricate the array. The annular ring, annular cylindrical or other similar structural forms of arrays may also find applications in the near future in treatments were curved contours of the human body are affected.

Studies on Modified Atmosphere Packaging of Pearl Spot (Etroplussuratensis) With Special Emphasis to Biochemical and Microbiological Parameters

A modified atmosphere may be defined as a packaging or storage of a perishable product in an atmosphere other than that of air. A modified atmosphere (MA) applies to food packaged products changes continuously throughout the storage period. The pearl spot (Etroplus suratensis) is an important brackish water fish belonging to the family Cichlidae. The present work was carried out to see the effect of modified atmosphere packaging on the shelf life fresh pearl spot stored in ice to extent the shelf life. The objectives of the present study are to study the suitability of Thermoformed Trays for modified atmosphere packaging, to standardize the most suitable gas mixture for modified atmosphere packaging pearl spot based on sensory evaluation, to find out the effect of modified atmosphere packaging in comparison to air packaging, to study the biochemical, microbiological, sensory and textural characteristics during storage, to study the safety concern regarding the Clostridium botulinum during modified atmosphere packaging, to find out the most suitable chemical quality indices for modified atmosphere stored pearl spot

Array pattern nulling by element position perturbations using a genetic algorithm

A genetic algorithm has been used for null steering in phased and adaptive arrays . It has been shown that it is possible to steer the array null s precisely to the required interference directions and to achieve any prescribed null depths . A comparison with the results obtained from the analytic solution shows the advantages of using the genetic algorithm for null steering in linear array patterns

Polarisation Agile Microstrip Array Antenna Element

A new microstrip antenna element is described which exhibits polarization agility. This is achieved by employing a T-slot radiator which is driven by the edge fields of a balanced microstrip line. The balanced line can support two propagating modes. namely. an even mode and an odd mode, and be switching between these modes. the orthogonal arms of the T-slot radiator are separately excited thus forming orthogonally polarized radiated fields. A nucrostrip patch antenna, which displays polarization agility using the sane mechanism, is also described

Antiviral property of marine actinomycetes against White Spot Syndrome Virus in penaeid shrimps

Aquaculture farms, particularly in Southeast Asia are facing severe crisis due to increasing incidences of White Spot Syndrome Virus (WSSV). Actinomycetes have provided many important bioactive compounds of high prophylactic and therapeutic value and are continually being screened for new compounds. In this communication, the results of a study made to determine the effectiveness of marine actinomycetes against the white spot disease in penaeid shrimps are presented. Twenty-five isolates of actinomycetes were tested for their ability to reduce infection due to WSSV among cultured shrimps. When these actinomycetes were made available as feed additives to the post-larvae of the black tiger shrimp Penaeus monodon for two weeks and challenged with WSSV, the post challenge survival showed variations from 11 to 83%. However, six isolates have shown to be the most potential candidates for further study.

Multi-user bidirectional communication using isochronal synchronisation of array of chaotic directly modulated semiconductor lasers

Isochronal synchronisation between the elements of an array of three mutually coupled directly modulated semiconductor lasers is utilized for the purpose of simultaneous bidirectional secure communication. Chaotic synchronisation is achieved by adding the coupling signal to the self feedback signal provided to each element of the array. A symmetric coupling is effective in inducing synchronisation between the elements of the array. This coupling scheme provides a direct link between every pair of elements thus making the method suitable for simultaneous bidirectional communication between them. Both analog and digital messages are successfully encrypted and decrypted simultaneously by each element of the array.