Setting standards: Information accumulation in development

We propose a model in which economic relations and institutions in advancedand less developed economies differ as these societies have access to different amounts of information. This lack of information makes it hard to give the right incentives to managers and entrepreneurs. We argue that differences in the amount of information arise because of the differences in the scale of activities in rich and poor economies; namely, there is too little repetition of similar activities in pooreconomies, thus insufficient information to set the appropriate standards for firm performance. Our model predicts a number of institutional and structural transformations as the economy accumulates capital and information.

Lending to the borrower from hell: Debt and default in the age of Philip II, 1556-1598

What sustained borrowing without third-party enforcement, in the early days of sovereignlending? Philip II of Spain accumulated towering debts while stopping all payments tohis lenders four times. How could the sovereign borrow much and default often? Weargue that bankers ability to cut off Philip II s access to smoothing services was key. Aform of syndicated lending created cohesion among his Genoese bankers. As a result,lending moratoria were sustained through a cheat the cheater mechanism (Kletzer andWright, 2000). Our paper thus lends empirical support to a recent literature emphasizingthe role of bankers incentives for continued sovereign borrowing.

Banks, government bonds, and default: what do the data say?

We use data from Bankscope to analyze the holdings of public bonds by over 18,000 banks located in 185 countries and the role of these bonds in 18 sovereign debt crises over the period 1998-2012. We find that: (i) banks hold a sizeable share of their assets in government bonds (about 9% on average), particularly in less financially developed countries; (ii) during sovereign crises, banks on average increase their bondholdings by 1% of their assets, but this increase is concentrated among larger and more profitable banks, and; (iii) the correlation between a bank's holdings of public bonds and its future loans is positive in normal times, but turns negative during defaults. A 10% increase in bank bond-holdings during default is associated with a 3.2% reduction in future loans, and bonds bought in normal times account for 75% of this effect. Our results are consistent with the view that there is a liquidity benefit for banks to hold public bonds in normal times, which is critical for understanding bank fragility during sovereign crises.

Quality assessment of cardiovascular magnetic resonance in the setting of the European CMR registry: description and validation of standardized criteria.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) has become an important diagnostic imaging modality in cardiovascular medicine. However, insufficient image quality may compromise its diagnostic accuracy. We aimed to describe and validate standardized criteria to evaluate a) cine steady-state free precession (SSFP), b) late gadolinium enhancement (LGE), and c) stress first-pass perfusion images. These criteria will serve for quality assessment in the setting of the Euro-CMR registry. METHODS: Thirty-five qualitative criteria were defined (scores 0-3) with lower scores indicating better image quality. In addition, quantitative parameters were measured yielding 2 additional quality criteria, i.e. signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of non-infarcted myocardium (as a measure of correct signal nulling of healthy myocardium) for LGE and % signal increase during contrast medium first-pass for perfusion images. These qualitative and quantitative criteria were assessed in a total of 90 patients (60 patients scanned at our own institution at 1.5T (n=30) and 3T (n=30) and in 30 patients randomly chosen from the Euro-CMR registry examined at 1.5T). Analyses were performed by 2 SCMR level-3 experts, 1 trained study nurse, and 1 trained medical student. RESULTS: The global quality score was 6.7±4.6 (n=90, mean of 4 observers, maximum possible score 64), range 6.4-6.9 (p=0.76 between observers). It ranged from 4.0-4.3 for 1.5T (p=0.96 between observers), from 5.9-6.9 for 3T (p=0.33 between observers), and from 8.6-10.3 for the Euro-CMR cases (p=0.40 between observers). The inter- (n=4) and intra-observer (n=2) agreement for the global quality score, i.e. the percentage of assignments to the same quality tertile ranged from 80% to 88% and from 90% to 98%, respectively. The agreement for the quantitative assessment for LGE images (scores 0-2 for SNR <2, 2-5, >5, respectively) ranged from 78-84% for the entire population, and 70-93% at 1.5T, 64-88% at 3T, and 72-90% for the Euro-CMR cases. The agreement for perfusion images (scores 0-2 for %SI increase >200%, 100%-200%,<100%, respectively) ranged from 81-91% for the entire population, and 76-100% at 1.5T, 67-96% at 3T, and 62-90% for the Euro-CMR registry cases. The intra-class correlation coefficient for the global quality score was 0.83. CONCLUSIONS: The described criteria for the assessment of CMR image quality are robust with a good inter- and intra-observer agreement. Further research is needed to define the impact of image quality on the diagnostic and prognostic yield of CMR studies.

Recreating the South Sea bubble: Lessons from an experiment in financial history

Major bubble episodes are rare events. In this paper, we examine what factors might cause some asset price bubbles to become very large. We recreate, in a laboratory setting, some of the specific institutional features investors in the South Sea Company faced in 1720. Several factors have been proposed as potentially contributing to one of the greatest periods of asset overvaluation in history: an intricate debt-for-equity swap, deferred payment for these shares, and the possibility of default on the deferred payments. We consider which aspect might have had the most impact in creating the South Sea bubble. The results of the experiment suggest that the company?s attempt to exchange its shares for government debt was the single biggest contributor to the stock price explosion, because of the manner in which the swap affected fundamental value. Issuing new shares with only partial payments required, in conjunction with the debt-equity swap, also had a significant effect on the size of the bubble. Limited contract enforcement, on the other hand, does not appear to have contributed significantly.

Setting in motion the immune mechanisms underlying genetically determined resistance and susceptibility to infection with Leishmania major.

The murine model of infection with Leishmania major has allowed the demonstration of a causal relationship between, on the one hand, genetically determined resistance to infection and the development of a Th1 CD4+ cell response, and on the other hand, genetically determined susceptibility and Th2 cell maturation. Using this murine model of infection, the role of cytokines in directing the functional differentiation pathway of CD4+ T cell precursors, has been demonstrated in vivo. Thus, IL-12 and IFN-gamma have been shown to favour Th1 cell development and IL-4 is crucial for the differentiation of Th2 responses. Maturation of a Th2 response in susceptible BALB/c mice following infection with L. major is triggered by the IL-4 produced during the first two days after parasite inoculation. This IL-4 rapidly renders parasite specific CD4+ T cells precursors unresponsive to IL-12. A restricted population of CD4+ T cells expressing the V beta 4V alpha 8 TCR heterodimer and recognizing a single epitope on the LACK (Leishmania Activated C-Kinase) antigen of L. major is responsible for this rapid production of IL-4, instructing subsequent differentiation towards the Th2 phenotype of CD4+ T cells specific for several parasite antigens.

Bullying among adolescents in a sub-Saharan middle-income setting.

PURPOSE: This study explored factors associated with self-reported bullying among adolescents in a sub-Saharan country. METHODS: A cross-sectional sample of adolescents (n = 1,427) in the Seychelles was drawn from the Global School-based Student Health Survey. Bullied adolescents were compared with non-bullied adolescents with respect to several sociodemographic factors. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed. RESULTS: Within a 30 day period, 38.8% of adolescents reported being bullied. Bullied youths were more likely to be depressed (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.63; confidence intervals [CI] = 1.27-1.07) and socially deprived (aOR = 1.85; CI = 1.30-2.61). Being older (aOR = .83; CI = .77-.90) and having close friends (aOR = .53; CI = .31-.91) were protective factors. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of bullying in the Seychelles is high, and social correlates are similar to those in industrialized settings. More research is needed to examine bullying patterns outside the school environment.

INTERMED predicts non-return to work in an occupational rehabilitation setting for individuals with orthopaedic trauma-Part I

Introduction.- Knowledge of predictors of an unfavourable outcome, e.g. non-return to work after an injury enables to identify patients at risk and to target interventions for modifiable predictors. It has been recently shown that INTERMED; a tool to measure biopsychosocial complexity in four domains (biologic, psychologic, social and care, with a score between 0-60 points) can be useful in this context. The aim of this study was to set up a predictive model for non-return to work using INTERMED in patients in vocational rehabilitation after orthopaedic injury.Patients and methods.- In this longitudinal prospective study, the cohort consisted of 2156 consecutively included inpatients with orthopaedic trauma attending a rehabilitation hospital after a work, traffic or sport related injury. Two years after discharge, a questionnaire regarding return to work was sent (1502 returned their questionnaires). In addition to INTERMED, 18 predictors known at baseline of the rehabilitation were selected based on previous research. A multivariable logistic regression was performed.Results.- In the multivariate model, not-returning to work at 2 years was significantly predicted by the INTERMED: odds-ratio (OR) 1.08 (95% confidence interval, CI [1.06; 1.11]) for a one point increase in scale; by qualified work-status before the injury OR = 0.74, CI (0.54; 0.99), by using French as preferred language OR = 0.60, CI (0.45; 0.80), by upper-extremity injury OR = 1.37, CI (1.03; 1.81), by higher education (> 9 years) OR = 0.74, CI (0.55; 1.00), and by a 10 year increase in age OR = 1.15, CI (1.02; 1.29). The area under the receiver-operator-characteristics curve (ROC)-curve was 0.733 for the full model (INTERMED plus 18 variables).Discussion.- These results confirm that the total score of the INTERMED is a significant predictor for return to work. The full model with 18 predictors combined with the total score of INTERMED has good predictive value. However, the number of variables (19) to measure is high for the use as screening tool in a clinic.

Between Cultures: The Dyadic and Triadic Therapeutic Alliance in Multicultural Setting

Many researchers have identified the therapeutic alliance (TA) as the main factor that predicts psychotherapeutic success regardless the type of approach or treatment. In a multicultural setting, the construction of the therapeutic alliance is accompanied by elements that specially influence the flow of the interaction. Some examples of these elements are language, cultural beliefs, and traditions. For Hispanic-American clients in Lausanne (Switzerland), this encounter could take place in a dyadic setting, in the presence of a therapist who speaks Spanish and shares or not the client's culture of origin. On the other hand, it can take place in a triadic setting, in the presence of a therapist who does not speak Spanish and an interpreter that serves as a communication bridge. This present project has the purpose of studying the TA between different health professionals and the Hispanic- American clients who are assisted with and without an interpreter in Lausanne's health system. My goal is to study this relationship in the clients' context (many of them are clandestine) and based on their perception and subjective experience through a quantitative and qualitative complementary methodology. Because this project is in progress, this communication will focus on presenting the population's socio-demographic characteristics, the research questionings, methodology, and preliminary results.This project can enhance our knowledge about relationships between two cultures in a therapeutic encounter (psychological/psychiatric or medical). At the same time, it can bring us a better understanding about the migration movements of Hispanic-Americans in Switzerland.

Quality of assessement of CMR images in the setting of the European cardiovascular magnetic resonance registry : description and validation of standardized criteria

l'imagerie par résonance magnétique (IRMC) est une technologie utilisée depuis les aimées quatre¬-vingts dans le monde de la cardiologie. Cette technique d'imagerie non-invasive permet d'acquérir Ses images du coeur en trois dimensions, dans n'importe quel, plan, sans application de radiation, et en haute résolution. Actuellement, cette technique est devenue un référence dans l'évaluation et 'l'investigation de différentes pathologies cardiaques. La morphologie cardiaque, la fonction des ventricules ainsi que leur contraction, la perfusion tissulaire ainsi que la viabilité tissulaire peuvent être caractérisés en utilisant différentes séquences d'imagerie. Cependant, cette technologie repose sur des principes physiques complexes et la mise en pratique de cette technique se heurte à la difficulté d'évaluer un organe en mouvement permanent. L'IRM cardiaque est donc sujette à différents artefacts qui perturbent l'interprétation des examens et peuvent diminuer la précision diagnostique de cette technique. A notre connaissance, la plupart des images d'IRMC sont analysées et interprétées sans évaluation rigoureuse de la qualité intrinsèque de l'examen. Jusqu'à présent, et à notre connaissance, aucun critère d'évaluation de la qualité des examens d'IRMC n'a été clairement déterminé. L'équipe d'IRMC du CHUV, dirigée par le Prof J. Schwitter, a recensé une liste de 35 critères qualitatifs et 12 critères quantitatifs évaluant la qualité d'un examen d'IRMC et les a introduit dans une grille d'évaluation. L'objet de cette étude est de décrire et de valider la reproductibilité des critères figurant dans cette grille d'évaluation, par l'interprétation simultanée d'examens IRMC par différents observateurs (cardiologues spécialisés en IRM, étudiant en médecine, infirmière spécialisée). Notre étude a permis de démontrer que les critères définis pour l'évaluation des examens d'IRMC sont robustes, et permettent une bonne reproductibilité intra- et inter-observateurs. Cette étude valide ainsi l'utilisation de ces critères de qualité dans le cadre de l'imagerie par résonance magnétique cardiaque. D'autres études sont encore nécessaires afin de déterminer l'impact de la qualité de l'image sur la précision diagnostique de cette technique. Les critères standardisés que nous avons validés seront utilisés pour évaluer la qualité des images dans le cadre d'une étude à échelle européenne relative à l'IRMC : "l'EuroCMR registry". Parmi les autres utilités visées par ces critères de qualité, citons notamment la possibilité d'avoir une référence d'évaluation de la qualité d'examen pour toutes les futures études cliniques utilisant la technologie d'IRMC, de permettre aux centres d'IRMC de quantifier leur niveau de qualité, voire de créer un certificat de standard de qualité pour ces centres, d'évaluer la reproductibilité de l'évaluation des images par différents observateurs d'un même centre, ou encore d'évaluer précisément la qualité des séquences développées à l'avenir dans le monde de l'IRMC.

Valoración de credit default swaps: una aplicación del modelo de Hull-White al mercado español

En este trabajo se presenta una aplicación empírica del modelo de Hull-White (2000) al mercado de renta fija español. Este modelo proporciona la expresión por el cálculo de los pagos hechos por el comprador de un credit default swap (CDS), bajo la hipótesis de que no existe riesgo de contrapartida. Se supone, además, que la curva cupón cero, la tasa de recuperación constante y el momento del suceso de crédito son independientes. Se utilizan bonos del Banco Santander Central Hispano para mesurar la probabilidad neutra al riesgo de quiebra y, bajo hipótesis de no arbitraje, se calculan las primas de un CDS, por un bono subyacente con la misma calificación crediticia que la entidad de referencia. Se observa que las primas se ajustan bien a los spreads crediticios del mercado, que se acostumbran a utilizar como alternativa a las mismas.