Perceptions of and responses to the Holocene flooding of the North Sea lowlands.

This paper explores how the drastic landscape changes that took place in the North Sea basin during the Holocene affected the lives of those dwelling in that area. Previous contributions to the discussion of the Holocene inundation of the North Sea have tended to concentrate on the timings. This paper discusses the ways people could have perceived and responded to these events, emphasizing that climate change should not be viewed apart from social factors. It is also argued that sea-level rise was not something externally imposed on communities but an integral part of their world.

Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance--elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet

We apply a new parameterisation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) feedback between surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) and surface elevation in the MAR regional climate model (Edwards et al., 2014) to projections of future climate change using five ice sheet models (ISMs). The MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) climate projections are for 2000–2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB– elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8–6.9 %) at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6–16.0 %) at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs) for sea level contributions are larger than the “no feedback” case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicate that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions.

Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density changes for 1993-2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs

Predictions of twenty-first century sea level change show strong regional variation. Regional sea level change observed by satellite altimetry since 1993 is also not spatially homogenous. By comparison with historical and pre-industrial control simulations using the atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the CMIP5 project, we conclude that the observed pattern is generally dominated by unforced (internal generated) variability, although some regions, especially in the Southern Ocean, may already show an externally forced response. Simulated unforced variability cannot explain the observed trends in the tropical Pacific, but we suggest that this is due to inadequate simulation of variability by CMIP5 AOGCMs, rather than evidence of anthropogenic change. We apply the method of pattern scaling to projections of sea level change and show that it gives accurate estimates of future local sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing as simulated by the AOGCMs under RCP scenarios, implying that the pattern will remain stable in future decades. We note, however, that use of a single integration to evaluate the performance of the pattern-scaling method tends to exaggerate its accuracy. We find that ocean volume mean temperature is generally a better predictor than global mean surface temperature of the magnitude of sea level change, and that the pattern is very similar under the different RCPs for a given model. We determine that the forced signal will be detectable above the noise of unforced internal variability within the next decade globally and may already be detectable in the tropical Atlantic.

Sea level extremes at the coasts of China

Hourly sea level records from 1954 to 2012 at 20 tide gauges at and adjacent to the Chinese coasts are used to analyze extremes in sea level and in tidal residual. Tides and tropical cyclones determine the spatial distribution of sea level maxima. Tidal residual maxima are predominantly determined by tropical cyclones. The 50 year return level is found to be sensitive to the number of extreme events used in the estimation. This is caused by the small number of tropical cyclone events happening each year which lead to other local storm events included thus significantly affecting the estimates. Significant increase in sea level extremes is found with trends in the range between 2.0 and 14.1 mm yr−1. The trends are primarily driven by changes in median sea level but also linked with increases in tidal amplitudes at three stations. Tropical cyclones cause significant interannual variations in the extremes. The interannual variability in the sea level extremes is also influenced by the changes in median sea level at the north and by the 18.6 year nodal cycle at the South China Sea. Neither of PDO and ENSO is found to be an indicator of changes in the size of extremes, but ENSO appears to regulate the number of tropical cyclones that reach the Chinese coasts. Global mean atmospheric temperature appears to be a good descriptor of the interannual variability of tidal residual extremes induced by tropical cyclones but the trend in global temperature is inconsistent with the lack of trend in the residuals.

Separating the influence of projected changes in air temperature and wind on patterns of sea level change and ocean heat content

We present ocean model sensitivity experiments aimed at separating the influence of the projected changes in the “thermal” (near-surface air temperature) and “wind” (near-surface winds) forcing on the patterns of sea level and ocean heat content. In the North Atlantic, the distribution of sea level change is more due to the “thermal” forcing, whereas it is more due to the “wind” forcing in the North Pacific; in the Southern Ocean, the “thermal” and “wind” forcing have a comparable influence. In the ocean adjacent to Antarctica the “thermal” forcing leads to an inflow of warmer waters on the continental shelves, which is somewhat attenuated by the “wind” forcing. The structure of the vertically integrated heat uptake is set by different processes at low and high latitudes: at low latitudes it is dominated by the heat transport convergence, whereas at high latitudes it represents a small residual of changes in the surface flux and advection of heat. The structure of the horizontally integrated heat content tendency is set by the increase of downward heat flux by the mean circulation and comparable decrease of upward heat flux by the subgrid-scale processes; the upward eddy heat flux decreases and increases by almost the same magnitude in response to, respectively, the “thermal” and “wind” forcing. Regionally, the surface heat loss and deep convection weaken in the Labrador Sea, but intensify in the Greenland Sea in the region of sea ice retreat. The enhanced heat flux anomaly in the subpolar Atlantic is mainly caused by the “thermal” forcing.

Spatial and temporal variations of the seasonal sea level cycle in the northwest Pacific

The seasonal sea level variations observed from tide gauges over 1900-2013 and gridded satellite altimeter product AVISO over 1993-2013 in the northwest Pacific have been explored. The seasonal cycle is able to explain 60-90% of monthly sea level variance in the marginal seas, while it explains less than 20% of variance in the eddy-rich regions. The maximum annual and semi-annual sea level cycles (30cm and 6cm) are observed in the north of the East China Sea and the west of the South China Sea respectively. AVISO was found to underestimate the annual amplitude by 25% compared to tide gauge estimates along the coasts of China and Russia. The forcing for the seasonal sea level cycle was identified. The atmospheric pressure and the steric height produce 8-12cm of the annual cycle in the middle continental shelf and in the Kuroshio Current regions separately. The removal of the two attributors from total sea level permits to identify the sea level residuals that still show significant seasonality in the marginal seas. Both nearby wind stress and surface currents can explain well the long-term variability of the seasonal sea level cycle in the marginal seas and the tropics because of their influence on the sea level residuals. Interestingly, the surface currents are a better descriptor in the areas where the ocean currents are known to be strong. Here, they explain 50-90% of inter-annual variability due to the strong links between the steric height and the large-scale ocean currents.

Lower permian oncolites from South China: implications for equatorial sea-level responses to late palaeozoic Gondwanan glaciation

The oncoid-bearing Chuanshan Formation is a regionally extensive carbonate deposit of predominantly Asselian to early Sakmarian (Early Permian) age in South China, occupying an area of some 500,000 km2. Throughout South China, the oncoid-bearing horizons are generally stable and broadly comparable in lithology, fossil content and the morphology of the oncoid grains. Four types of microfacies are recognized from the oncolite succession and overall they suggest a moderate- to high-energy, wave-agitated shallow marine carbonate platform environment. An analysis of the stratigraphic distribution of oncoid grain size, density, thickness and the bedding structures of the oncolite beds and the number of coating laminae indicate the presence of metre-scale cyclothems, suggestive of possible high-frequency cycles of sea-level fluctuation. Compared to carbonate successions above and below that lack oncolites, and in conjunction with evidence from sequence stratigraphic and isotopic geochemical analyses of coeval carbonate deposits in South China and elsewhere, the origin of the Chuanshan oncolites is linked to a drastic drop in global sea-level at the Pennsylvanian–Permian boundary, that can be correlated closely in timing with the zenith of the Late Palaeozoic Gondwanan glaciation. It is further suggested that the eustatic changes apparent from the deposition of the Chuanshan oncolites and similar coeval deposits in lower palaeolatitudes were coupled with, and influenced by, the contemporaneous high-latitude Gondwanan glaciation, the largest and longest known such event in Phanerozoic Earth history.

Sea-level changes and palaeo-ranges: reconstruction of ancient shorelines and river drainages and the phylogeography of the Australian land crayfish Engaeus sericatus Clark (Decapoda: Parastacidae )

Historical sea levels have been influential in shaping the phylogeography of freshwater-limited taxa via palaeodrainage and palaeoshoreline connections. In this study, we demonstrate an approach to phylogeographic analysis incorporating historical sea-level information in a nested clade phylogeographic analysis (NCPA) framework, using burrowing freshwater crayfish as the model organism. Our study area focuses on the Bass Strait region of southeastern Australia, which is marine region encompassing a shallow seabed that has emerged as a land bridge during glacial cycles connecting mainland Australia and Tasmania. Bathymetric data were analysed using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to delineate a palaeodrainage model when the palaeocoastline was 150 m below present-day sea level. Such sea levels occurred at least twice in the past 500 000 years, perhaps more often or of larger magnitude within the last 10 million years, linking Victoria and Tasmania. Inter-locality distance measures confined to the palaeodrainage network were incorporated into an NCPA of crayfish (Engaeus sericatus Clark 1936) mitochondrial 16S rDNA haplotypes. The results were then compared to NCPAs using present-day river drainages and traditional great-circle distance measures. NCPA inferences were cross-examined using frequentist and Bayesian procedures in the context of geomorphological and historical sea-level data. We found distribution of present-day genetic variation in E. sericatus to be partly explained not only by connectivity through palaeodrainages but also via present-day drainages or overland (great circle) routes. We recommend that future studies consider all three of these distance measures, especially for studies of coastally distributed species.

Adaptation planning for coastal inundation and erosion at the local level : a knowledge systems perspective

Scientific projections for climate change induced sea level rise highlight the potential for serious consequences in low lying coastal areas, through impacts upon: built infrastructure; beneficial uses; and ecological values. An area of particular concern relates to the ways in which issues associated with land may be subject to future inundation and, or, erosion. Responding to such issues is complex and challenging, requiring consideration of multiple sources of evidence (with varying levels of certainty), diverse organisational settings and priorities, and multiple perspectives on what the evidence means. Further, limited attention has been directed towards exploring the knowledge dynamics associated with coastal adaption planning. In this paper we explore the knowledge dynamics associated with coastal adaption planning, in order to highlight the inter-organisational and inter-personal challenges involved. We do so by drawing on the views expressed in semi structured interviews by stakeholders with an interest in coastal climate change. The particular focus is on exploring how different actors perceive coastal adaption planning process, and the tensions, challenges, and implications associated with, and arising from, the way in which coastal adaptation knowledge is exchanged.

Spurious shifts in the pattern of diurnal variation of sea level pressure of reanalysis datasets

The main purpose of this work is to report the presence of spurious discontinuities in the pattern of diurnal variation of sea level pressure of the three reanalysis datasets from: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Science (R1), the NCEP and Department of Energy (R2), and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ERA-40). Such discontinuities can be connected to the major changes in the global observing system that have occurred throughout reanalyses years. In the R1, the richest period in discontinuities is 1956-1958, coinciding with the start of modern radiosonde observation network. Rapid increase in the density of surface-based observations from 1967 also had an important impact on both R1 and ERA-40, with larger impact on R1. The reanalyses show discontinuities in the 1970s related to the assimilation of radiances measured by the Vertical Temperature Profile Radiometer and TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounders onboard satellites. In the ERA-40, which additionally assimilated Special Sensor Microwave/Imager data, there are discontinuities in 1987-1989. The R1 also presents further discontinuities, in 1988-1993 likely connected to replacement/introduction of NOAA-series satellites with different biases, and to the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991, which is known to have severely affected measurements of infrared radiances for several years. The discontinuities in 1996-1998 might be partially connected to change in the type of radiosonde, from VIZ-B to VIZ-B2. The R2, which covers only satellite era (1979-on), shows discontinuities mainly in 1992, 1996-1997, and 2001. The discontinuities in 1992 and 2001 might have been caused by change in the satellite measurements and those in 1996-1997 by some changes in land-based observations network. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.