Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas

Regional seas are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas’ ecosystems. In this paper we explore the response of five regional sea areas to potential future climate change, acting via atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial vectors. These include the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and are contrasted with a region of the Northeast Atlantic. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within these seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts on: long term changes in elemental budgets, seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton’s exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional model systems each using a common global Earth System Model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and additional sensitivity experiments. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas we consider (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from complex combinations of multiple physical drivers, including changes in mixing, circulation and temperature, which act both locally and non-locally through advection.

The application of the ecological footprint in two Irish urban areas: Limerick and Belfast

The ecological footprint is now a widely accepted indicator of sustainable
development. Footprinting translates resource consumption into the land area
required to sustain it, and allows for an average per capita footprint for a region
or nation to be compared with the global average. This paper reports on a project
in which footprints were calculated for two Irish cities, namely Belfast in
Northern Ireland and Limerick in the Republic of Ireland for the year 2001. As
is frequently the case at sub-national scale, data quality and availability were
often problematic, and in general data gaps were filled by means of population
proxies or national averages. A range of methods was applied to convert
resource flows to land areas. Both footprints suggest that the lifestyles of citizens
of the cities use several times more land than their global share, as has been
found for other cities.

The spatial ecology of the whiskered bat (Myotis mystacinus) at the western extreme of its range provides evidence of regional adaptation

Although widespread, the ecology of the whiskered bat, Myotis mystacinus in Europe remains poorly understood. Ireland is positioned at the most western extreme of this species' range. To ascertain the ecology of M. mystacinus at its geographic range extreme, the roosting behaviour, home range and habitat use of females in a maternity roost in Ireland was investigated by radio-tracking. M. mystacinus were active in a diversity of habitats: namely, mixed woodland, riparian vegetation, arable land and rough grassland. However, only mixed woodland and riparian habitats were selected as core foraging areas. This is in contrast to a previous study from Britain where only pasture was utilised but is in agreement with data from Slovakia, where woodland was also selected, whilst riparian areas were also utilised by this species in Germany. A high degree of overlap in the foraging areas of individuals was observed. A total of seven roosts were utilised by tracked bats and roost switching behaviour was observed. We discuss our contrasting results in respect to range limitations, regional variability in landscape structure and the composition of bat communities. The present results have implications for the conservation of M. mystacinus within Ireland and other parts of its range, highlighting the need for range wide ecological studies. Regional variability in the ecology of bats related to landscape factors is an important consideration for bat conservation and therefore must be incorporated into future management plans. (C) 2012 Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Saugetierkunde. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Towards groundwater security in coastal East Africa: initiating a regional research network and integrated hydrogeologic, climatic & socio-economic observatories in coastal aquifers of the Comoros Islands, Kenya and Tanzania

African coastal regions are expected to experience the highest rates of population growth in coming decades. Fresh groundwater resources in the coastal zone of East Africa (EA) are highly vulnerable to seawater intrusion. Increasing water demand is leading to unsustainable and ill-planned well drilling and abstraction. Wells supplying domestic, industrial and agricultural needs are or have become, in many areas, too saline for use. Climate change, including weather changes and sea level rise, is expected to exacerbate this problem. The multiplicity of physical, demographic and socio-economic driving factors makes this a very challenging issue for management. At present the state and probable evolution of coastal aquifers in EA are not well documented. The UPGro project 'Towards groundwater security in coastal East Africa' brings together teams from Kenya, Tanzania, Comoros Islands and Europe to address this knowledge gap. An integrative multidisciplinary approach, combining the expertise of hydrogeologists, hydrologists and social scientists, is investigating selected sites along the coastal zone in each country. Hydrogeologic observatories have been established in different geologic and climatic settings representative of the coastal EA region, where focussed research will identify the current status of groundwater and identify future threats based on projected demographic and climate change scenarios. Researchers are also engaging with end users as well as local community and stakeholder groups in each area in order to understanding the issues most affecting the communities and searching sustainable strategies for addressing these.

Climate change response in Europe: What's the reality? Analysis of adaptation and mitigation plans from 200 urban areas in 11 countries

Urban areas are pivotal to global adaptation and mitigation efforts. But how do cities actually perform in terms of climate change response? This study sheds light on the state of urban climate change adaptation and mitigation planning across Europe. Europe is an excellent test case given its advanced environmental policies and high urbanization. We performed a detailed analysis of 200 large and medium-sized cities across 11 European countries and analysed the cities' climate change adaptation and mitigation plans. We investigate the regional distribution of plans, adaptation and mitigation foci and the extent to which planned greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions contribute to national and international climate objectives. To our knowledge, it is the first study of its kind as it does not rely on self-assessment (questionnaires or social surveys). Our results show that 35 % of European cities studied have no dedicated mitigation plan and 72 % have no adaptation plan. No city has an adaptation plan without a mitigation plan. One quarter of the cities have both an adaptation and a mitigation plan and set quantitative GHG reduction targets, but those vary extensively in scope and ambition. Furthermore, we show that if the planned actions within cities are nationally representative the 11 countries investigated would achieve a 37 % reduction in GHG emissions by 2050, translating into a 27 % reduction in GHG emissions for the EU as a whole. However, the actions would often be insufficient to reach national targets and fall short of the 80 % reduction in GHG emissions recommended to avoid global mean temperature rising by 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Regional integration of biogas – developing an intersectoral research action plan for Northern Ireland

Bioenergy is a key component of the European Union long term energy strategy across all sectors, with a target contribution of up to 14% of the energy mix by 2020. It is estimated that there is the potential for 1TWh of primary energy from biogas per million persons in Europe, derived from agricultural by-products and waste. With an agricultural sector that accounts for 75% of land area and a large number of advanced engineering firms, Northern Ireland is a region with considerable potential for an integrated biogas industry. Northern Ireland is also heavily reliant on imported fossil fuels. Despite this, the industry is underdeveloped and there is a need for a collaborative approach from research, business and policy-makers across all sectors to optimise Northern Ireland’s abundant natural resources. ‘Developing Opportunities in Bio-Energy’ (i.e. Do Bioenergy) is a recently completed project that involved both academic and specialist industrial partners. The aim was to develop a biogas research action plan for 2020 to define priorities for intersectoral regional development, co-operation and knowledge transfer in the field of production and use of biogas. Consultations were held with regional stakeholders and working groups were established to compile supporting data, decide key objectives and implementation activities. Within the context of this study it was found that biogas from feedstocks including grass, agricultural slurry, household and industrial waste have the potential to contribute from 2.5% to 11% of Northern Ireland’s total energy consumption. The economics of on-farm production were assessed, along with potential markets and alternative uses for biogas in sectors such as transport, heat and electricity. Arising from this baseline data, a Do Bioenergy was developed. The plan sets out a strategic research agenda, and details priorities and targets for 2020. The challenge for Northern Ireland is how best to utilise the biogas – as electricity, heat or vehicle fuel and in what proportions. The research areas identified were: development of small scale solutions for biogas production and use; solutions for improved nutrient management; knowledge supporting and developing the integration of biogas into the rural economy; and future crops and bio-based products. The human resources and costs for the implementation were estimated as 80 person-years and £25 million respectively. It is also clear that the development of a robust bio-gas sector requires some reform of the regulatory regime, including a planning policy framework and a need to address social acceptance issues. The Action Plan was developed from a regional perspective but the results may be applicable to other regions in Europe and elsewhere. This paper presents the methodology, results and analysis, and discussion and key findings of the Do Bioenergy report for Northern Ireland.

Improving a regional chemotherapy service by learning from deaths occurring within 30 days of treatment with systemic anti-cancer therapy.

Background: Outwith clinical trials, patient outcomes specifically related to SACT (systemic anti-cancer therapy) are not well reported despite a significant proportion of patients receiving active treatment at the end of life. The NCEPOD reviewing deaths within 30 days of SACT found SACT caused or hastened death in 27% of cases.

Method: Across the Northern Ireland cancer network, 95 patients who died within 30 days of SACT for solid tumours were discussed at the Morbidity and Mortality monthly meeting during 2013. Using a structured template, each case was independently reviewed, with particular focus on whether SACT caused or hastened death.

Results: Lung, GI and breast cancers were the most common sites. Performance status was recorded in 92% at time of final SACT cycle (ECOG PS 0-2 89%).

In 57% the cause of death was progressive disease. Other causes included thromboembolism (13%) and infection (5% neutropenic sepsis, 6% non-neutropenic sepsis). In 26% with death from progressive disease, the patient was first cycle of first line treatment for metastatic disease. In the majority discussion regarding treatment aims and risks was documented. Only one patient was receiving SACT with curative intent, who died from appropriately managed neutropenic sepsis.

A definitive decision regarding SACT's role in death was made in 60%: in 49% SACT was deemed non-contributory and in 11% SACT was deemed the cause of death. In 40% SACT did not play a major role, but a definitive negative association could not be made.

Conclusion: Development of a robust review process of 30-day mortality after SACT established a benchmark for SACT delivery for future comparisons and identified areas for SACT service organisation improvement. Moreover it encourages individual practice reflection and highlights the importance of balancing patients' needs and concerns with realistic outcomes and risks, particularly in heavily pre-treated patients or those of poor performance status.

Vertebrate diversity in the Bussaco Mountain and surrounding areas

A biodiversidade é fundamental para o funcionamento dos ecossistemas e, além do seu valor intrínseco, fornece bens e serviços essenciais ao Homem. É consensual que as reservas naturais, por si só, não conseguirão preservar a biodiversidade de modo a que seja travada a perda de espécies que vem acontecendo a ritmos sem precedente. Assim, compreender os padrões de distribuição das espécies à escala regional ou sub-regional, ainda que em territórios não classificados, é crucial para o estabelecimento de políticas de gestão que visem a conservação da biodiversidade. O principal objectivo deste trabalho centrou-se na descrição e compreensão dos padrões de riqueza específica, distribuição e abundância de Vertebrados face aos diversos habitats que constituem a área de estudo. Constituíram, assim, objecto de estudo os anfíbios, aves, morcegos, micromamíferos e mamíferos de médio porte. A Serra do Bussaco e áreas envolventes encontram-se dominadas por vastas extensões de monocultura de Pinus pinaster e Eucalyptus globulus e por terrenos agrícolas. A Mata Nacional do Bussaco, bosque extremamente diverso, é outro importante elemento de paisagem. Pretendeu-se então analisar o efeito das práticas silvícolas actuais e da intensificação da agricultura sobre a biodiversidade, averiguando a importância de cada tipo de habitat para os Vertebrados em geral, e para algumas classes em particular. De entre os terrenos agrícolas, é bastante claro que a agricultura tradicional, com a sua típica complexidade e disponibilidade de água, constitui um habitat muito importante para a maioria dos Vertebrados, tendo também apresentado o maior valor conservacionista. No que respeita aos habitats florestais, o bosque misto apresentou consistentemente maior riqueza específica e diversidade, afirmando-se como o habitat preferido para a maioria das espécies e aquele com maior valor conservacionista. Do ponto de vista da conservação, as monoculturas, especialmente as da uma espécie exótica, revelaram-se habitats relativamente pobres. No entanto, estas conclusões referem-se às tendências gerais, sendo que taxa particulares respondem de forma diferente, atendendo aos seus requisitos específicos. A informação recolhida fornece bases essenciais para a construção de linhas de orientação que visem a integração das actividades humanas com a manutenção da biodiversidade e respectivos serviços, presumivelmente com aplicação a outras áreas geográficas.

Regional and urban air quality modelling under a climate change scenario

The better understanding of the interactions between climate change and air quality is an emerging priority for research and policy. Climate change will bring changes in the climate system, which will affect the concentration and dispersion of air pollutants. The main objective of the current study is to assess the impacts of climate change on air quality in 2050 over Portugal and Porto urban area. First, an evaluation and characterization of the air quality over mainland Portugal was performed for the period between 2002 and 2012. The results show that NO2, PM10 and O3 are the critical pollutants in Portugal. Also, the influence of meteorology on O3, NO2 and PM10 levels was investigate in the national main urban areas (Porto and Lisboa) and was verified that O3 has a statistically significant relationship with temperature in most of the components. The results also indicate that emission control strategies are primary regulators for NO2 and PM10 levels. After, understanding the national air quality problems and the influence that meteorology had in the historical air quality levels, the air quality modelling system WRF-CAMx was tested and the required inputs for the simulations were prepared to fulfil the main goal of this work. For the required air quality modelling inputs, an Emission Projections under RCP scenarios (EmiPro-RCP) model was developed to assist the estimation of future emission inventories for GHG and common air pollutants. Also, the current emissions were estimated for Portugal with a higher detailed disaggregation to improve the performance of the air quality simulations. The air quality modelling system WRF/CAMx was tested and evaluated over Portugal and Porto urban area and the results point out that is an adequate tool for the analysis of air quality under climate change. For this purpose, regional simulations of air quality during historical period and future (2045-2050) were conducted with CAMx version 6.0 to evaluate the impacts of simulated future climate and anthropogenic emission projections on air quality over the study area. The climate and the emission projections were produced under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results from the simulations point out, that if the anthropogenic emissions keep the same in 2050, the concentrations of NO2, PM10 and O3 will increase in Portugal. When, besides the climate change effects, is consider the projected anthropogenic emissions the annual mean concentrations of NO2 decrease significantly in Portugal and Porto urban area, and on the contrary the annual mean PM10 concentrations increases in Portugal and decrease in Porto urban area. The O3 results are mainly caused by the reduction of ozone precursors, getting the higher reductions in urban areas and increases in the surrounding areas. All the analysis performed for both simulations for Porto urban area support that, for PM10 and O3, there will be an increase in the occurrence of extreme values, surpassing the annual legislated parameters and having more daily exceedances. This study constitutes an innovative scientific tool to help in future air quality management in order to mitigate future climate change impacts on air quality.

Sources of local knowledge spillover within the Algarve tourism region: evidence to identify a regional innovation system

Tourism sector in Algarve region is the main engine of regional economy. Although frequently, tourism is considered as a low – moderate innovative sector, tourism competitiveness is still highly dependent on specific features of a Regional Innovation Platform, highlighting the crucial importance of knowledge creation and diffusion, learning, cooperative and collaborative interaction that may evolve to a Regional Innovation System (RIS). Studies of Local Knowledge Spillovers have been frequently focused on empirical evidence provided by regions highly related with manufacturing sectors. Considering a case study in Tourism Algarve Region, emphasizing a theoretical character on the analysis of these areas and using a qualitative methodology, the goal of this study was to provide preliminary evidence of the main sources and vehicles of regional knowledge spillovers used by tourism enterprises. Main information has been obtained using primary information collected from 20 interviews over main stakeholders regarding regional private and public sector. Primary information was complemented with secondary information, a deeply and extensive bibliography revision and also statistical information. Results show that, on the one hand, main sources of knowledge used by micro and small tourism enterprises are human resources and formal and informal networks. On the other hand, large tourism companies are weakly related with regional sources using mainly internal company and economic group resources to generate innovation activities. Regional innovation platform shows clear weaknesses on linkages and coordinated initiatives to promote and support innovation performance of firms hampering to increase tourism competitiveness and regional development.

Landslide susceptibility evaluation and validation at a regional scale

Tese de doutoramento, Geografia (Geografia Física), Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto de Geografia e Ordenamento do Território, 2014

Temporal and Georaphical Variations in Grass Pollen Seasons in Areas of Western Europe: an Analysis of Season dates at Sites of the European Pollen Information System.

Geographical and temporal variations in the start dates of grass pollen seasons are described for selected sites of the European Pollen Information Service. Daily average grass pollen counts are derived from Network sites in Finland, the Netherlands, Denmark, United Kingdom, Austria, Italy and Spain, giving a broad longitudinal transect over Western Europe. The study is part of a larger project that also examines annual and regional variations in the severity, timing of the peak and duration of the grass pollen seasons. For several sites, data are available for over twenty years enabling long term trends to be discerned. The analyses show notable contrasts in the progression of the seasons annually with differing lag times occurring between southern and northern sites in various years depending on the weather conditions. The patterns identified provide some insight into geographical differences and temporal trends in the incidence of pollinosis. The paper discusses the main difficulties involved in this type of analysis and notes possibilities for using data from the European Pollen Information service to construct pan European predictive models for pollen seasons.

Can the European low-cost airline boom continue? Implications for regional airports

At a time when the traditional major airlines have struggled to remain viable, the low-cost carriers have become the major success story of the European airline industry. This paper looks behind the headlines to show that although low-cost airlines have achieved much, they too have potential weaknesses and face a number of challenges in the years ahead. The secondary and regional airports that have benefited from low-cost carrier expansion are shown to be vulnerable to future changes in airline economics, government policy and patterns of air service. An analysis of routes from London demonstrates that the low-cost airlines have been more successful in some markets than others. To attractive and historically under-served leisure destinations in Southern Europe they have stimulated dramatic growth and achieved a dominant position. To major hub cities however they typically remain marginal players and to secondary points in Northern Europe their traffic has been largely diverted from existing operators. There is also evidence that the UK market is becoming saturated and new low-cost services are poaching traffic from other low-cost routes. Passenger compensation legislation and possible environmental taxes will hit the low-cost airline industry disproportionately hard. The high elasticities of demand to price in certain markets that these airlines have exploited will operate in reverse. One of the major elements of the low-cost business model involves the use of smaller uncongested airports. These offer faster turn-arounds and lower airport charges. In many cases, local and regional government has been willing to subsidise expansion of air services to assist with economic development or tourism objectives. However, recent court cases against Ryanair now threaten these financial arrangements. The paper also examines the catchment areas for airports with low-cost service. It is shown that as well as stimulating local demand, much traffic is captured from larger markets nearby through the differential in fare levels. This has implications for surface transport, as access to these regional airports often involves long journeys by private car. Consideration is then given to the feasibility of low-cost airlines expanding into the long-haul market or to regional operations with small aircraft. Many of the cost advantages are more muted on intercontinental services.

The role of telecommunications infrastructure in the regional economic growth of Africa

This paper presents empirical evidence on how telecommunications infrastructure is related to economic growth in a panel dataset covering 44 African countries for the period from 1990 to 2010. A dynamic panel data approach model is employed, which suggests that telecommunications contribute in a major way to the economic development of the continent, after controlling for a number of other factors. Furthermore, the findings also show that investment in telecommunications is subject to increasing returns, demonstrating that an increase in telecommunications investment produces further growth. Therefore, telecommunications investment and services should be encouraged in the region.