An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Jamaica

Climate change is a continuous process that began centuries ago. Today the pace of change has increased with greater rapidity because of global warming induced by anthropogenically generated greenhouse gases (GHG). Failure to effectively deal with the adverse outcomes can easily disrupt plans for sustainable economic development. Because of the failure of export agriculture over the last several decades, to provide the economic stimuli needed to promote economic growth and development, Jamaica, like many other island states in the Caribbean subregion, has come to rely on tourism as an instrument of transformation of the macro-economy. It is believed this shift in economic imperative would eventually provide the economic impetus needed to generate much needed growth and development. This assessment has shown that tourism is not only a leading earner of foreign exchange in Jamaica and a major creator of both direct and indirect jobs but, also, one of the principal contributors to the country‟s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The rapid expansion of the industry which occurred over the last several decades coupled with disregard for sound environmental practices has led to the destruction of coral reefs and the silting of wetlands. Because most of the industry is located along the coastal region it is extremely vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Failure to address the predictable environmental challenges of climate change, with some degree of immediacy, will not only undermine, but quickly and seriously impair the capacity of industry to stimulate and contribute to the process of economic development. To this end, it important that further development of industry be characterised by sound economic and social planning and proper environmental practices.

Screening the toxicity and biodegradability of petroleum hydrocarbons by a rapid colorimetric method

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Research Blogging: Indexing and Registering the Change in Science 2.0

Increasing public interest in science information in a digital and 2.0 science era promotes a dramatically, rapid and deep change in science itself. The emergence and expansion of new technologies and internet-based tools is leading to new means to improve scientific methodology and communication, assessment, promotion and certification. It allows methods of acquisition, manipulation and storage, generating vast quantities of data that can further facilitate the research process. It also improves access to scientific results through information sharing and discussion. Content previously restricted only to specialists is now available to a wider audience. This context requires new management systems to make scientific knowledge more accessible and useable, including new measures to evaluate the reach of scientific information. The new science and research quality measures are strongly related to the new online technologies and services based in social media. Tools such as blogs, social bookmarks and online reference managers, Twitter and others offer alternative, transparent and more comprehensive information about the active interest, usage and reach of scientific publications. Another of these new filters is the Research Blogging platform, which was created in 2007 and now has over 1,230 active blogs, with over 26,960 entries posted about peer-reviewed research on subjects ranging from Anthropology to Zoology. This study takes a closer look at RB, in order to get insights into its contribution to the rapidly changing landscape of scientific communication.

Development of enzymic time-temperature integrators with rapid detection for evaluation of continuous HTST pasteurization processes

The assessment of the thermal process impact in terms of food safety and quality is of great importance for process evaluation and design. This can be accomplished from the analysis of the residence time and temperature distributions coupled with the kinetics of thermal change, or from the use of a proper time-temperature integrator (TTI) as indicator of safety and quality. The objective of this work was to develop and test enzymic TTIs with rapid detection for the evaluation of continuous HTST pasteurization processes (70-85 degrees C, 10-60 s) of low-viscosity liquid foods, such as milk and juices. Enzymes peroxidase, lactoperoxidase and alkaline phosphatase in phosphate buffer were tested and activity was determined with commercial reflectometric strips. Discontinuous thermal treatments at various time-temperature combinations were performed in order to adjust a first order kinetic model of a two-component system. The measured time-temperature history was considered instead of assuming isothermal conditions. Experiments with slow heating and cooling were used to validate the adjusted model. Only the alkaline phosphatase TTI showed potential to be used for the evaluation of pasteurization processes. The choice was based on the obtained z-values of the thermostable and thermolabile fractions, on the cost and on the validation tests. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Upper airway expansion after rapid maxillary expansion evaluated with cone beam computed tomography

Objective: Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) is a reliable method of assessing the oral cavity and upper airways. We conducted this study to examine the changes introduced by rapid maxillary expansion in the nasal cavity, nasopharynx, and oropharynx as seen with images obtained by CBCT. Materials and Methods: We evaluated 15 patients with maxillary width deficiency treated with RME. Patients were subjected to CBCT at the beginning of RME and after the retention period of 4 months. Results: The nasal cavity presented a significant transverse increase in the lower third, in the anterior (1.08 mm +/- 0.15), medium (1.28 mm +/- 0.15), and posterior regions (0.77 mm +/- 0.12). No significant change occurred in the nasopharynx in volume (P = .11), median sagittal area (P = .33), or lower axial area (P = .29) resulting from the RME. A significant change was noted in the oropharynx in volume (P = .05), median sagittal area (P = .01), and lower axial area (P = .04) before and immediately after the RME. Conclusions: RME is able to increase the transverse width of the nasal cavity, but it does not have the same effect in the nasopharynx. Changes noted in the oropharynx may be due to the lack of a standardized position of the head and tongue at the time of image acquisition. (Angle Orthod. 2012;82:458-463.)

Continuity and Change in New Products

This doctoral dissertation is triggered by an emergent problem: how can firms reinvent themselves? Continuity- and change-oriented decisions fundamentally shape overtime the activities and potential revenues of organizations and other adaptive systems, but both types of actions draw upon limited resources and rely on different organizational routines and capabilities. Most organizations appear to have difficulties in making tradeoffs, so that it is easier to overinvest in one of them than to successfully achieve a mixture of both. Nevertheless, theory and empirical evidence suggest that too little of either may reduce performance, indicating a need to learn more about how organizations reconcile these tensions. In the first paper, I moved from the consideration that rapid changes in competitive environments increasingly require firms to be “ambidextrous” implementing organizational mechanisms and structures that allow continuity- and change-oriented activities to be engaged at the same time. More specifically, I show that continuity- and change-related decisions can’t be confined either inside or outside the firm, but span overtime across distinct decision domains located within and beyond the organizational boundaries. Reconciling static and dynamic perspectives of ambidexterity, I conceptualize a firm’s strategy as a bundle of decisions about product attributes and components of the production team, proposing a multidimensional and dynamic model of structural ambidexterity that explains why and how firms could manage conflicting pressures for continuity and change in the context of new products. In the second study I note how rigorous systematic evidence documenting the success of ambidextrous organizations is lacking, and there has been very little investigation of how firms deal with continuity and change in new products. How to manage the transition form a successful product to another? What to change and what to keep? Incumbents that deal with series of products over time need to update their offerings in order to have the most relevant attributes to prospect clients without disappoint the current customer base. They need to both match and anticipate consumers’ preferences, blending something old with something new to satisfy the current demand and enlarge the herd by appealing to newer audiences. This paper contributes to strategic renewal and ambidexterity-related research with the first empirically assessment of a positive consumer response to ambidexterity in new products. Also, this study provides a practical method to monitor overtime the degree to which a brand or a firm is continuity- or change- oriented and evaluate different strategy profiles across two decision domains that play a pivotal role in new products: product attributes and components of the production team.

Analysis of charge-transport properties in GST materials for next generation phase-change memory devices

The quest for universal memory is driving the rapid development of memories with superior all-round capabilities in non-volatility, high speed, high endurance and low power. The memory subsystem accounts for a significant cost and power budget of a computer system. Current DRAM-based main memory systems are starting to hit the power and cost limit. To resolve this issue the industry is improving existing technologies such as Flash and exploring new ones. Among those new technologies is the Phase Change Memory (PCM), which overcomes some of the shortcomings of the Flash such as durability and scalability. This alternative non-volatile memory technology, which uses resistance contrast in phase-change materials, offers more density relative to DRAM, and can help to increase main memory capacity of future systems while remaining within the cost and power constraints. Chalcogenide materials can suitably be exploited for manufacturing phase-change memory devices. Charge transport in amorphous chalcogenide-GST used for memory devices is modeled using two contributions: hopping of trapped electrons and motion of band electrons in extended states. Crystalline GST exhibits an almost Ohmic I(V) curve. In contrast amorphous GST shows a high resistance at low biases while, above a threshold voltage, a transition takes place from a highly resistive to a conductive state, characterized by a negative differential-resistance behavior. A clear and complete understanding of the threshold behavior of the amorphous phase is fundamental for exploiting such materials in the fabrication of innovative nonvolatile memories. The type of feedback that produces the snapback phenomenon is described as a filamentation in energy that is controlled by electron–electron interactions between trapped electrons and band electrons. The model thus derived is implemented within a state-of-the-art simulator. An analytical version of the model is also derived and is useful for discussing the snapback behavior and the scaling properties of the device.

Land use change to perennial energy crops in Northern Italy: Effects on soil organic carbon sequestration and distribution, soil enzyme activities and microbial communities.

Studies on soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration in perennial energy crops are available for North-Central Europe, while there is insufficient information for Southern Europe. This research was conducted in the Po Valley, a Mediterranean-temperate zone characterised by low SOC levels, due to intensive management. The aim was to assess the factors influencing SOC sequestration and its distribution through depth and within soil fractions, after a 9-year old conversion from two annual systems to Miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus) and giant reed (Arundo donax). The 13C natural abundance was used to evaluate the amount of SOC in annual and perennial species, and determine the percentage of carbon derived from perennial crops. SOC was significantly higher under perennial species, especially in the topsoil (0-0.15 m). After 9 years, the amount of C derived from Miscanthus was 18.7 Mg ha-1, mostly stored at 0-0.15 m, whereas the amount of C derived from giant reed was 34.7 Mg ha-1, evenly distributed through layers. Physical soil fractionation was combined with 13C abundance analysis. C derived from perennial crops was mainly found in macroaggregates. Under giant reed, more newly derived-carbon was stored in microaggregates and mineral fraction than under Miscanthus. A molecular approach based on denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) allowed to evaluate changes on microbial community, after the introduction of perennial crops. Functional aspects were investigated by determining relevant soil enzymes (β-glucosidase, urease, alkaline phosphatase). Perennial crops positively stimulated these enzymes, especially in the topsoil. DGGE profiles revealed that community richness was higher in perennial crops; Shannon index of diversity was influenced only by depth. In conclusion, Miscanthus and giant reed represent a sustainable choice for the recovery of soils exhausted by intensive management, also in Mediterranean conditions and this is relevant mainly because this geographical area is notoriously characterised by a rapid turnover of SOC.

Rapid adaptation of visual search in simulated hemianopia

Patients with homonymous hemianopia have altered visual search patterns, but it is unclear how rapidly this develops and whether it reflects a strategic adaptation to altered perception or plastic changes to tissue damage. To study the temporal dynamics of adaptation alone, we used a gaze-contingent display to simulate left or right hemianopia in 10 healthy individuals as they performed 25 visual search trials. Visual search was slower and less accurate in hemianopic than in full-field viewing. With full-field viewing, there were improvements in search speed, fixation density, and number of fixations over the first 9 trials, then stable performance. With hemianopic viewing, there was a rapid shift of fixation into the blind field over the first 5-7 trials, followed by continuing gradual improvements in completion time, number of fixations, and fixation density over all 25 trials. We conclude that in the first minutes after onset of hemianopia, there is a biphasic pattern of adaptation to altered perception: an early rapid qualitative change that shifts visual search into the blind side, followed by more gradual gains in the efficiency of using this new strategy, a pattern that has parallels in other studies of motor learning.

Rapid assessment of cerebral autoregulation by near-infrared spectroscopy and a single dose of phenylephrine

Rapid bedside determination of cerebral blood pressure autoregulation (AR) may improve clinical utility. We tested the hypothesis that cerebral Hb oxygenation (HbDiff) and cerebral Hb volume (HbTotal) measured by near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) would correlate with cerebral blood flow (CBF) after single dose phenylephrine (PE). Critically ill patients requiring artificial ventilation and arterial lines were eligible. During rapid blood pressure rise induced by i.v. PE bolus, ΔHbDiff and ΔHbTotal were calculated by subtracting values at baseline (normotension) from values at peak blood pressure elevation (hypertension). With the aid of NIRS and bolus injection of indocyanine green, relative measures of CBF, called blood flow index (BFI), were determined during normotension and during hypertension. BFI during hypertension was expressed as percentage from BFI during normotension (BFI%). Autoregulation indices (ARIs) were calculated by dividing BFI%, ΔHbDiff, and ΔHbTotal by the concomitant change in blood pressure. In 24 patients (11 newborns and 13 children), significant correlations between BFI% and ΔHbDiff (or ΔHbTotal) were found. In addition, the associations between Hb-based ARI and BFI%-based ARI were significant with correlation coefficients of 0.73 (or 0.72). Rapid determination of dynamic AR with the aid of cerebral Hb signals and PE bolus seems to be reliable.

Mid-Holocene Climate and Culture Change in the South Central Ande

This chapter reviews the history of study and the current status of Mid-Holocene climatic and cultural change in the South Central Andes, which host a wide range of different habitats from Pacific coastal areas up to extremely harsh cold and dry environments of the high mountain plateau, the altiplano or the puna. Paleoenvironmental information reveals high amplitude and rapid changes in effective moisture during the Holocene period and, consequently, dramatically changing environmental conditions. Therefore, this area is suitable to study the response of hunting and gathering societies to environmental changes, because the smallest variations in the climatic conditions have large impacts on resources and the living space of humans. This chapter analyzes environmental and paleoclimatic information from lake sediments, ice cores, pollen profiles, and geomorphic processes and relates these with the cultural and geographic settlement patterns of human occupation in the different habitats in the area of southern Peru, southwest Bolivia, northwest Argentina, and north Chile and puts in perspective of the early and late Holocene to present a representative range of environmental and cultural changes. It has been found that the largest changes took place around 9000 cal yr BP when the humid early Holocene conditions were replaced by extremely arid but highly variable climatic conditions. These resulted in a marked decrease of human occupation, “ecological refuges,” increased mobility, and an orientation toward habitats with relatively stable resources (such as the coast, the puna seca, and “ecological refuges”).

CHANGE FOR GOOD? AN ASSESSMENT OF THE DISCONNECT BETWEEN PERCEIVED BENEFITS BY ENGOS AND USER SATISFACTION OF SOLAR BOTTLE LIGHTS IN INFORMAL SETTLEMENTS OF DHAKA CITY, BANGLADESH

A major challenge for a developing country such as Bangladesh is to supply basic services to its most marginalized populations, which includes both rural and urban dwellers. The government struggles to provide basic necessities such as water and electricity. In marginalized urban communities in Bangladesh, in particular informal settlements, meeting basic needs is even direr. Most informal settlements are built to respond to a rapid immigration to urban centers, and are thought of as ‘temporary structures’, though many structures have been there for decades. In addition, as the settlements are often squatting on private land, access to formalized services such as electricity or water is largely absent. In some cases, electricity and water connections are brought in - but through informal and non-government sanctioned ways -- these hookups are deemed ‘illegal’ by the state. My research will focus on recent efforts to help ameliorate issues associated with lack of basic services in informal settlements in Bangladesh – in this case lack of light. When the government fails to meet the needs of the general population, different non-government organizations tend to step in to intervene. A new emphasis on solar bottle systems in informal urban settlement areas to help address some energy needs (specifically day-time lighting). One such example is the solar bottle light in Bangladesh, a project introduced by the organization ‘Change’. There has been mixed reactions on this technology among the users. This is where my research intervenes. I have used quantitative method to investigate user satisfactions for the solar bottle lights among the residents of the informal settlements to address the overarching question, is there a disconnect between the perceived benefits of the ENGO and the user satisfaction of the residents of the informal settlements of Dhaka City? This paper uses survey responses to investigate level of user satisfaction and the contributing factors.

RAPID SPACE TRAJECTORY GENERATION USING A FOURIER SERIES SHAPE-BASED APPROACH

With the insatiable curiosity of human beings to explore the universe and our solar system, it is essential to benefit from larger propulsion capabilities to execute efficient transfers and carry more scientific equipment. In the field of space trajectory optimization the fundamental advances in using low-thrust propulsion and exploiting the multi-body dynamics has played pivotal role in designing efficient space mission trajectories. The former provides larger cumulative momentum change in comparison with the conventional chemical propulsion whereas the latter results in almost ballistic trajectories with negligible amount of propellant. However, the problem of space trajectory design translates into an optimal control problem which is, in general, time-consuming and very difficult to solve. Therefore, the goal of the thesis is to address the above problem by developing a methodology to simplify and facilitate the process of finding initial low-thrust trajectories in both two-body and multi-body environments. This initial solution will not only provide mission designers with a better understanding of the problem and solution but also serves as a good initial guess for high-fidelity optimal control solvers and increases their convergence rate. Almost all of the high-fidelity solvers enjoy the existence of an initial guess that already satisfies the equations of motion and some of the most important constraints. Despite the nonlinear nature of the problem, it is sought to find a robust technique for a wide range of typical low-thrust transfers with reduced computational intensity. Another important aspect of our developed methodology is the representation of low-thrust trajectories by Fourier series with which the number of design variables reduces significantly. Emphasis is given on simplifying the equations of motion to the possible extent and avoid approximating the controls. These facts contribute to speeding up the solution finding procedure. Several example applications of two and three-dimensional two-body low-thrust transfers are considered. In addition, in the multi-body dynamic, and in particular the restricted-three-body dynamic, several Earth-to-Moon low-thrust transfers are investigated.

Dilution and redistribution effects of rapid 2-litre infusions of 0.9% (w/v) saline and 5% (w/v) dextrose on haematological parameters and serum biochemistry in normal subjects: a double-blind crossover study

Although hypoalbuminaemia after injury may result from increased vascular permeability, dilution secondary to crystalloid infusions may contribute significantly. In this double-blind crossover study, the effects of bolus infusions of crystalloids on serum albumin, haematocrit, serum and urinary biochemistry and bioelectrical impedance analysis were measured in healthy subjects. Ten male volunteers received 2-litre infusions of 0.9% (w/v) saline or 5% (w/v) dextrose over 1 h; infusions were carried out on separate occasions, in random order. Weight, haemoglobin, serum albumin, serum and urinary biochemistry and bioelectrical impedance were measured pre-infusion and hourly for 6 h. The serum albumin concentration fell in all subjects (20% after saline; 16% after dextrose) by more than could be explained by dilution alone. This fall lasted more than 6 h after saline infusion, but values had returned to baseline 1 h after the end of the dextrose infusion. Changes in haematocrit and haemoglobin were less pronounced (7.5% after saline; 6.5% after dextrose). Whereas all the water from dextrose was excreted by 2 h after completion of the infusion, only one-third of the sodium and water from the saline had been excreted by 6 h, explaining its persistent diluting effect. Impedances rose after dextrose and fell after saline (P<0.001). Subjects voided more urine (means 1663 and 563 ml respectively) of lower osmolality (means 129 and 630 mOsm/kg respectively) and sodium content (means 26 and 95 mmol respectively) after dextrose than after saline (P<0.001). While an excess water load is excreted rapidly, an excess sodium load is excreted very slowly, even in normal subjects, and causes persistent dilution of haematocrit and serum albumin. The greater than expected change in serum albumin concentration when compared with that of haemoglobin suggests that, while dilution is responsible for the latter, redistribution also has a role in the former. Changes in bioelectrical impedance may reflect the electrolyte content rather than the volume of the infusate, and may be unreliable for clinical purposes.

Science for the Carpathians: Using Regional Capacity to Cope with Global Change

Emphasizing the global and regional importance of mountain ecosystem services and referring to the anticipated future environmental changes affecting the provision of these services, this chapter takes a closer look at the Carpathian Mountains. In addition to climate change and general effects of globalization, rapid socioeconomic transformations after the fall of the Iron Curtain pose an extra challenge to the sustainable development of the region. Describing the early efforts of organizing mountain science through programs such as UNESCO MAB and UNEP at the global scale, this chapter focuses on the recent history of research coordination for the European mountains, in particular on the activities of the Carpathian Convention and the European Program of the Mountain Research Initiative, which were among main driving factors for the initiation of the Science for the Carpathians (S4C) network. This regional mountain research network was established in 2008 to foster scientific collaboration and communication and to promote applied research and capacity building, which in turn would support sustainable development in the Carpathian Mountains. Forum Carpaticum, a biennial open science conference, has become a central activity of the S4C network counting more than 400 members today.