Methods and applications for improving parameter prediction models for stand structures in Finland

This thesis report attempts to improve the models for predicting forest stand structure for practical use, e.g. forest management planning (FMP) purposes in Finland. Comparisons were made between Weibull and Johnson s SB distribution and alternative regression estimation methods. Data used for preliminary studies was local but the final models were based on representative data. Models were validated mainly in terms of bias and RMSE in the main stand characteristics (e.g. volume) using independent data. The bivariate SBB distribution model was used to mimic realistic variations in tree dimensions by including within-diameter-class height variation. Using the traditional method, diameter distribution with the expected height resulted in reduced height variation, whereas the alternative bivariate method utilized the error-term of the height model. The lack of models for FMP was covered to some extent by the models for peatland and juvenile stands. The validation of these models showed that the more sophisticated regression estimation methods provided slightly improved accuracy. A flexible prediction and application for stand structure consisted of seemingly unrelated regression models for eight stand characteristics, the parameters of three optional distributions and Näslund s height curve. The cross-model covariance structure was used for linear prediction application, in which the expected values of the models were calibrated with the known stand characteristics. This provided a framework to validate the optional distributions and the optional set of stand characteristics. Height distribution is recommended for the earliest state of stands because of its continuous feature. From the mean height of about 4 m, Weibull dbh-frequency distribution is recommended in young stands if the input variables consist of arithmetic stand characteristics. In advanced stands, basal area-dbh distribution models are recommended. Näslund s height curve proved useful. Some efficient transformations of stand characteristics are introduced, e.g. the shape index, which combined the basal area, the stem number and the median diameter. Shape index enabled SB model for peatland stands to detect large variation in stand densities. This model also demonstrated reasonable behaviour for stands in mineral soils.

Sign Of The Order Parameter In Oriented Systems And Its Utility In The Study Of The Dynamic Properties Of Molecules

Novel one and two dimensional NMR techniques are proposed and utilized for the determination of the signs of the order parameters used for the study of the mobility of the fatty acid chains. The experiments designed to extract this information involve the use of the intensities of the side bands in the spectra of oriented systems spinning at the magic angle. Advantages of the two dimensional technique over the one dimensional method are discussed. The utility of the method in the study of the dynamic properties of membranes and model systems is pointed out.

The 26 July 2005 heavy rainfall event over Mumbai: numerical modeling aspects

The performance of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) in simulating an extreme rainfall event is evaluated, and subsequently the physical mechanisms leading to its initiation and sustenance are explored. As a case study, the heavy precipitation event that led to 65 cm of rainfall accumulation in a span of around 6 h (1430 LT-2030 LT) over Santacruz (Mumbai, India), on 26 July, 2005, is selected. Three sets of numerical experiments have been conducted. The first set of experiments (EXP1) consisted of a four-member ensemble, and was carried out in an idealized mode with a model grid spacing of 1 km. In spite of the idealized framework, signatures of heavy rainfall were seen in two of the ensemble members. The second set (EXP2) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nested integration and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6 and 1 km. The model was able to simulate a realistic spatial structure with the 54, 18, and 6 km grids; however, with the 1 km grid, the simulations were dominated by the prescribed boundary conditions. The third and final set of experiments (EXP3) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nesting and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6, and 2 km. The Scaled Lagged Average Forecasting (SLAF) methodology was employed to construct the ensemble members. The model simulations in this case were closer to observations, as compared to EXP2. Specifically, among all experiments, the timing of maximum rainfall, the abrupt increase in rainfall intensities, which was a major feature of this event, and the rainfall intensities simulated in EXP3 (at 6 km resolution) were closest to observations. Analysis of the physical mechanisms causing the initiation and sustenance of the event reveals some interesting aspects. Deep convection was found to be initiated by mid-tropospheric convergence that extended to lower levels during the later stage. In addition, there was a high negative vertical gradient of equivalent potential temperature suggesting strong atmospheric instability prior to and during the occurrence of the event. Finally, the presence of a conducive vertical wind shear in the lower and mid-troposphere is thought to be one of the major factors influencing the longevity of the event.

Determination of the sign of the order parameter from MAS spectra of oriented molecules

The use of the intensities of the spinning sidebands in the magic-angle spinning spectra of oriented molecules is proposed for the determination of the signs of the order parameters. The method is demonstrated for benzene and chloroform oriented in nematic phases of liquid crystals. On the basis of the theoretical expressions derived for the various order sidebands, the applicability of the method for different experimental conditions is discussed.

Coherent rainfall zones of the Indian region

We have delineated rainfall zones for the Indian region that are coherent with respect to the variations of the summer monsoon rainfall. Within each zone, the time series of the summer monsoon rainfall at every pair of stations are significantly positively correlated, and the mean interseries correlation for each zone is high. The interseries correlation data set is analysed in order to delineate the rainfall zones, using an objective method specifically developed for the purpose. Each of the zonal averages are shown to be representative of the zone as a whole. We suggest that this regionalization is appropriate for study of the variation of the summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region on interannual and larger scales.

Kaon B parameter with Wilson fermions

We calculate the kaon B parameter in quenched lattice QCD at beta=6.0 using Wilson fermions at kappa=0.154 and 0.155. We use two kinds of nonlocal (''smeared'') sources for quark propagators to calculate the matrix elements between states of definite momentum. The use of smeared sources yields results with much smaller errors than obtained in previous calculations with Wilson fermions. By combining results for p=(0,0,0) and p=(0,0,1), we show that one can carry out the noperturbative subtraction necessary to remove the dominant lattice artifacts induced by the chiral-symmetry-breaking term in the Wilson action. Our final results are in good agreement with those obtained using staggered fermions. We also present results for B parameters of the DELTAI = 3/2 part of the electromagnetic penguin operators, and preliminary results for B(K) in the presence of two flavors of dynamical quarks.

Thermodynamics and phase equilibria in the system Ga---In using multi-parameter functions

A four and a five-parameter functions are used to analyse and interpret the high and low temperature thermodynamic data and phase equilibria in the Ga-In system.

Strong nonlocalization induced by small scale parameter on terahertz flexural wave dispersion characteristics of a monolayer graphene

This paper presents the strong nonlocal scale effect on the flexural wave propagation in a monolayer graphene sheet. The graphene is modeled as an isotropic plate of one atom thick. Nonlocal governing equation of motion is derived and wave propagation analysis is performed using spectral analysis. The present analysis shows that the flexural wave dispersion in graphene obtained by local and nonlocal elasticity theories is quite different. The nonlocal elasticity calculation shows that the wavenumber escapes to infinite at certain frequency and the corresponding wave velocity tends to zero at that frequency indicating localization and stationary behavior. This behavior is captured in the spectrum and dispersion curves. The cut-off frequency of flexural wave not only depend on the axial wavenumber but also on the nonlocal scaling parameter. The effect of axial wavenumber on the wave behavior in graphene is also discussed in the present manuscript. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere model

A state-of-the-art model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the climate forecast system (CFS), from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, has been ported onto the PARAM Padma parallel computing system at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC), Bangalore and retrospective predictions for the summer monsoon (June-September) season of 2009 have been generated, using five initial conditions for the atmosphere and one initial condition for the ocean for May 2009. Whereas a large deficit in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June-September) was experienced over the Indian region (with the all-India rainfall deficit by 22% of the average), the ensemble average prediction was for above-average rainfall during the summer monsoon. The retrospective predictions of ISMR with CFS from NCEP for 1981-2008 have been analysed. The retrospective predictions from NCEP for the summer monsoon of 1994 and that from CDAC for 2009 have been compared with the simulations for each of the seasons with the stand-alone atmospheric component of the model, the global forecast system (GFS), and observations. It has been shown that the simulation with GFS for 2009 showed deficit rainfall as observed. The large error in the prediction for the monsoon of 2009 can be attributed to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event seen in the prediction from July onwards, which was not present in the observations. This suggests that the error could be reduced with improvement of the ocean model over the equatorial Indian Ocean.

Generalized State Parameter for Partly Saturated Soils

Studies on compressibility and shear strength aspects are the concern of many investigators concerned with partly saturated soils. In soil engineering connected with partly saturated soils, there are no approaches connecting soil states and stress conditions. The present investigation is essentially a step in this direction. A generalized state parameter, identified with regard to material states is shown to be related to the compressibility and shear strength. The involved parameters are simple and normally determined in routine investigations. The advantage of this approach is that changes in soil states due to external stress conditions and the associated changes in strength can be examined particularly when different types of soils are involved.

Parameter estimation in water-distribution systems by least squares

The weighted-least-squares method using sensitivity-analysis technique is proposed for the estimation of parameters in water-distribution systems. The parameters considered are the Hazen-Williams coefficients for the pipes. The objective function used is the sum of the weighted squares of the differences between the computed and the observed values of the variables. The weighted-least-squares method can elegantly handle multiple loading conditions with mixed types of measurements such as heads and consumptions, different sets and number of measurements for each loading condition, and modifications in the network configuration due to inclusion or exclusion of some pipes affected by valve operations in each loading condition. Uncertainty in parameter estimates can also be obtained. The method is applied for the estimation of parameters in a metropolitan urban water-distribution system in India.

Optimal management of beaver population using a reduced-order distributed parameter model and single network adaptive critics

Beavers are often found to be in conflict with human interests by creating nuisances like building dams on flowing water (leading to flooding), blocking irrigation canals, cutting down timbers, etc. At the same time they contribute to raising water tables, increased vegetation, etc. Consequently, maintaining an optimal beaver population is beneficial. Because of their diffusion externality (due to migratory nature), strategies based on lumped parameter models are often ineffective. Using a distributed parameter model for beaver population that accounts for their spatial and temporal behavior, an optimal control (trapping) strategy is presented in this paper that leads to a desired distribution of the animal density in a region in the long run. The optimal control solution presented, imbeds the solution for a large number of initial conditions (i.e., it has a feedback form), which is otherwise nontrivial to obtain. The solution obtained can be used in real-time by a nonexpert in control theory since it involves only using the neural networks trained offline. Proper orthogonal decomposition-based basis function design followed by their use in a Galerkin projection has been incorporated in the solution process as a model reduction technique. Optimal solutions are obtained through a "single network adaptive critic" (SNAC) neural-network architecture.

A novel neural network design for long range prediction of rainfall pattern

The importance of long-range prediction of rainfall pattern for devising and planning agricultural strategies cannot be overemphasized. However, the prediction of rainfall pattern remains a difficult problem and the desired level of accuracy has not been reached. The conventional methods for prediction of rainfall use either dynamical or statistical modelling. In this article we report the results of a new modelling technique using artificial neural networks. Artificial neural networks are especially useful where the dynamical processes and their interrelations for a given phenomenon are not known with sufficient accuracy. Since conventional neural networks were found to be unsuitable for simulating and predicting rainfall patterns, a generalized structure of a neural network was then explored and found to provide consistent prediction (hindcast) of all-India annual mean rainfall with good accuracy. Performance and consistency of this network are evaluated and compared with those of other (conventional) neural networks. It is shown that the generalized network can make consistently good prediction of annual mean rainfall. Immediate application and potential of such a prediction system are discussed.

Reduced Order Suboptimal Control Design for a Class of Nonlinear Distributed Parameter Systems Using POD and /spl thetas/-D Techniques

A new computational tool is presented in this paper for suboptimal control design of a class of nonlinear distributed parameter systems. First proper orthogonal decomposition based problem-oriented basis functions are designed, which are then used in a Galerkin projection to come up with a low-order lumped parameter approximation. Next, a suboptimal controller is designed using the emerging /spl thetas/-D technique for lumped parameter systems. This time domain sub-optimal control solution is then mapped back to the distributed domain using the same basis functions, which essentially leads to a closed form solution for the controller in a state feedback form. Numerical results for a real-life nonlinear temperature control problem indicate that the proposed method holds promise as a good suboptimal control design technique for distributed parameter systems.