Functional error modeling for uncertainty quantification in hydrogeology

Approximate models (proxies) can be employed to reduce the computational costs of estimating uncertainty. The price to pay is that the approximations introduced by the proxy model can lead to a biased estimation. To avoid this problem and ensure a reliable uncertainty quantification, we propose to combine functional data analysis and machine learning to build error models that allow us to obtain an accurate prediction of the exact response without solving the exact model for all realizations. We build the relationship between proxy and exact model on a learning set of geostatistical realizations for which both exact and approximate solvers are run. Functional principal components analysis (FPCA) is used to investigate the variability in the two sets of curves and reduce the dimensionality of the problem while maximizing the retained information. Once obtained, the error model can be used to predict the exact response of any realization on the basis of the sole proxy response. This methodology is purpose-oriented as the error model is constructed directly for the quantity of interest, rather than for the state of the system. Also, the dimensionality reduction performed by FPCA allows a diagnostic of the quality of the error model to assess the informativeness of the learning set and the fidelity of the proxy to the exact model. The possibility of obtaining a prediction of the exact response for any newly generated realization suggests that the methodology can be effectively used beyond the context of uncertainty quantification, in particular for Bayesian inference and optimization.

Genetic diversity of a brazilian wine grape germplasm collection based on morphoagronomic traits

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the performance of cultivars, to quantify the variability and to estimate the genetic distances of 66 wine grape accessions in the Grape Germplasm Bank of the EMBRAPA Semi-Arid, in Juazeiro, BA, Brazil, through the characterization of discrete and continuous phenotypic variables. Multivariate statistics, such as, principal components, Tocher's optimization procedure, and the graphic of the distance, were efficient in grouping more similar genotypes, according to their phenotypic characteristics. There was no agreement in the formation of groups between continuous and discrete morpho-agronomic traits, when Tocher's optimization procedure was used. Discrete variables allowed the separation of Vitis vinifera and hybrids in different groups. Significant positive correlations were observed between weight, length and width of bunches, and a negative correlation between titratable acidity and TSS/TTA. The major part (84.12%) of the total variation present in the original data was explained by the four principal components. The results revealed little variability between wine grape accessions in the Grape Germplasm Bank of Embrapa Semi-Arid.

The transtheoretical model in weight management: Validation of the Processes of Change Questionnaire

Objective: The processes of change implied in weight management remain unclear. The present study aimed to identify these processes by validating a questionnaire designed to assess processes of change (the P-Weight) in line with the transtheoretical model. The relationship of processes of change with stages of change and other external variables is also examined. Methods: Participants were 723 people from community and clinical settings in Barcelona. Their mean age was 32.07 (SD = 14.55) years; most of them were women (75.0%), and their mean BMI was 26.47 (SD = 8.52) kg/m2. They all completed the P-Weight and the stages of change questionnaire (SWeight), both applied to weight management, as well as two subscales from the Eating Disorders Inventory-2 and Eating Attitudes Test-40 questionnaires about the concern with dieting. Results: A 34-item version of the PWeight was obtained by means of a refinement process. The principal components analysis applied to half of the sample identified four processes of change. A confirmatory factor analysis was then carried out with the other half of the sample, revealing that the model of four freely correlated first-order factors showed the best fit (GFI = 0.988, AGFI = 0.986, NFI = 0.986, and SRMR = 0.0559). Corrected item-total correlations (0.322-0.865) and Cronbach"s alpha coefficients (0.781-0.960) were adequate. The relationship between the P-Weight and the S-Weight and the concern with dieting measures from other questionnaires supported the validity of the scale. Conclusion: The study identified processes of change involved in weight management and reports the adequate psychometric properties of the P-Weight. It also reveals the relationship between processes and stages of change and other external variables.

Domains of importance to the quality of life of older people from two Swiss regions

BACKGROUND: quality of life (QoL) is a subjective perception whose components may vary in importance between individuals. Little is known about which domains of QoL older people deem most important. OBJECTIVE: this study investigated in community-dwelling older people the relationships between the importance given to domains defining their QoL and socioeconomic, demographic and health status. METHODS: data were compiled from older people enrolled in the Lc65+ cohort study and two additional, population-based, stratified random samples (n = 5,300). Principal components analysis (PCA) was used to determine the underlying domains among 28 items that participants defined as important to their QoL. The components extracted were used as dependent variables in multiple linear regression models to explore their associations with socioeconomic, demographic and health status. RESULTS: PCA identified seven domains that older persons considered important to their QoL. In order of importance (highest to lowest): feeling of safety, health and mobility, autonomy, close entourage, material resources, esteem and recognition, and social and cultural life. A total of six and five domains of importance were significantly associated with education and depressive symptoms, respectively. The importance of material resources was significantly associated with a good financial situation (β = 0.16, P = 0.011), as was close entourage with living with others (β = 0.20, P = 0.007) and as was health and mobility with age (β = -0.16, P = 0.014). CONCLUSION: the importance older people give to domains of their QoL appears strongly related to their actual resources and experienced losses. These findings may help clinicians, researchers and policy makers better adapt strategies to individuals' needs.

Monitoring spatial and temporal dynamics of bird communities in Mediterranean landscapes affected by largewildfires = Seguimiento de la dinámica espacial y temporal de comunidades de aves en paisajes mediterráneos afectados por grandes fuegos

We presented a bird-monitoring database inMediterranean landscapes (Catalonia, NE Spain) affected by wildfires and we evaluated: 1) the spatial and temporal variability in the bird community composition and 2) the influence of pre-fire habitat configuration in the composition of bird communities. The DINDIS database results fromthemonitoring of bird communities occupying all areas affected by large wildfires in Catalonia since 2000.We used bird surveys conducted from 2006 to 2009 and performed a principal components analysis to describe two main gradients of variation in the composition of bird communities, which were used as descriptors of bird communities in subsequent analyses. We then analysed the relationships of these community descriptors with bioclimatic regions within Catalonia, time since fire and pre-fire vegetation (forest or shrubland).We have conducted 1,918 bird surveys in 567 transects distributed in 56 burnt areas. Eight out of the twenty most common detected species have an unfavourable conservation status, most of them being associated to open-habitats. Both bird communities’ descriptors had a strong regional component and were related to pre-fire vegetation, and to a lesser extent to the time since fire.We came to the conclusion that the responses of bird communities to wildfires are heterogeneous, complex and context dependent. Large-scale monitoring datasets, such as DINDIS, might allow identifying factors acting at different spatial and temporal scales that affect the dynamics of species and communities, giving additional information on the causes under general trends observed using other monitoring systems

Measuring Intermediary Determinants of Early Childhood Health: A Composite Index Comparing Colombian Departments

In recent years there has been growing interest in composite indicators as an efficient tool of analysis and a method of prioritizing policies. This paper presents a composite index of intermediary determinants of child health using a multivariate statistical approach. The index shows how specific determinants of child health vary across Colombian departments (administrative subdivisions). We used data collected from the 2010 Colombian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for 32 departments and the capital city, Bogotá. Adapting the conceptual framework of Commission on Social Determinants of Health (CSDH), five dimensions related to child health are represented in the index: material circumstances, behavioural factors, psychosocial factors, biological factors and the health system. In order to generate the weight of the variables, and taking into account the discrete nature of the data, principal component analysis (PCA) using polychoric correlations was employed in constructing the index. From this method five principal components were selected. The index was estimated using a weighted average of the retained components. A hierarchical cluster analysis was also carried out. The results show that the biggest differences in intermediary determinants of child health are associated with health care before and during delivery.

Measuring early childhood health : a composite index comparing Colombian departments

This paper presents a composite index of early childhood health using a multivariate statistical approach. The index shows how child health varies across Colombian departments, -administrative subdivisions-. In recent years there has been growing interest in composite indicators as an efficient analysis tool and a way of prioritizing policies. These indicators not only enable multi-dimensional phenomena to be simplified but also make it easier to measure, visualize, monitor and compare a country’s performance in particular issues. We used data collected from the Colombian Demographic and Health Survey, DHS, for 32 departments and the capital city, Bogotá, in 2005 and 2010. The variables included in the index provide a measure of three dimensions related to child health: health status, health determinants and the health system. In order to generate the weight of the variables and take into account the discrete nature of the data, we employed a principal component analysis, PCA, using polychoric correlation. From this method, five principal components were selected. The index was estimated using a weighted average of the components retained. A hierarchical cluster analysis was also carried out. We observed that the departments ranking in the lowest positions are located on the Colombian periphery. They are departments with low per capita incomes and they present critical social indicators. The results suggest that the regional disparities in child health may be associated with differences in parental characteristics, household conditions and economic development levels, which makes clear the importance of context in the study of child health in Colombia.

Tracking Invasion Histories in the Sea: Facing Complex Scenarios Using Multilocus Data

In recent years, new analytical tools have allowed researchers to extract historical information contained in molecular data, which has fundamentally transformed our understanding of processes ruling biological invasions. However, the use of these new analytical tools has been largely restricted to studies of terrestrial organisms despite the growing recognition that the sea contains ecosystems that are amongst the most heavily affected by biological invasions, and that marine invasion histories are often remarkably complex. Here, we studied the routes of invasion and colonisation histories of an invasive marine invertebrate Microcosmus squamiger (Ascidiacea) using microsatellite loci, mitochondrial DNA sequence data and 11 worldwide populations. Discriminant analysis of principal components, clustering methods and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods showed that the most likely source of the introduced populations was a single admixture event that involved populations from two genetically differentiated ancestral regions - the western and eastern coasts of Australia. The ABC analyses revealed that colonisation of the introduced range of M. squamiger consisted of a series of non-independent introductions along the coastlines of Africa, North America and Europe. Furthermore, we inferred that the sequence of colonisation across continents was in line with historical taxonomic records - first the Mediterranean Sea and South Africa from an unsampled ancestral population, followed by sequential introductions in California and, more recently, the NE Atlantic Ocean. We revealed the most likely invasion history for world populations of M. squamiger, which is broadly characterized by the presence of multiple ancestral sources and non-independent introductions within the introduced range. The results presented here illustrate the complexity of marine invasion routes and identify a cause-effect relationship between human-mediated transport and the success of widespread marine non-indigenous species, which benefit from stepping-stone invasions and admixture processes involving different sources for the spread and expansion of their range.

Aplicação da cromatografia por exclusão e da cromatografia gasosa de alta resolução na análise do café

The combination of high performance exclusion chromatography (HPEC) and gas chromatography (GC) was applied to the analysis of six coffee samples that were previously characterized by sensory tests as of good or poor quality. The data obtained by the two techniques were statistically evaluated by "Principal Components Analysis" (PCA) using selected peak areas. The results showed the potential of the described techniques for coffee analysis. The HPEC technique monitored with the U.V. detector at 272 nm and followed by PCA may be correlated with sensorial data, particularly if a wider group of samples is used.

A matter of scale: apparent niche differentiation of diploid and tetraploid plants may depend on extent and grain of analysis

Aim: Emerging polyploids may depend on environmental niche shifts for successful establishment. Using the alpine plant Ranunculus kuepferi as a model system, we explore the niche shift hypothesis at different spatial resolutions and in contrasting parts of the species range. Location: European Alps. Methods: We sampled 12 individuals from each of 102 populations of R. kuepferi across the Alps, determined their ploidy levels, derived coarse-grain (100x100m) environmental descriptors for all sampling sites by downscaling WorldClim maps, and calculated fine-scale environmental descriptors (2x2m) from indicator values of the vegetation accompanying the sampled individuals. Both coarse and fine-scale variables were further computed for 8239 vegetation plots from across the Alps. Subsequently, we compared niche optima and breadths of diploid and tetraploid cytotypes by combining principal components analysis and kernel smoothing procedures. Comparisons were done separately for coarse and fine-grain data sets and for sympatric, allopatric and the total set of populations. Results: All comparisons indicate that the niches of the two cytotypes differ in optima and/or breadths, but results vary in important details. The whole-range analysis suggests differentiation along the temperature gradient to be most important. However, sympatric comparisons indicate that this climatic shift was not a direct response to competition with diploid ancestors. Moreover, fine-grained analyses demonstrate niche contraction of tetraploids, especially in the sympatric range, that goes undetected with coarse-grained data. Main conclusions: Although the niche optima of the two cytotypes differ, separation along ecological gradients was probably less decisive for polyploid establishment than a shift towards facultative apomixis, a particularly effective strategy to avoid minority cytotype exclusion. In addition, our results suggest that coarse-grained analyses overestimate niche breadths of widely distributed taxa. Niche comparison analyses should hence be conducted at environmental data resolutions appropriate for the organism and question under study.

A indústria petroquímica no próximo século: como substituir o petróleo como matéria-prima?

The world reserves of petroleum will finish in about 100 years. For a tropical country like Brazil, biomass will be the natural substitute for petroleum. For the best utilization of biomass, it first needs to be separated into its principal components: cellulose, hemicelluloses, lignins, vegetable and essential oils, non-structural carbohydrates, bark and foliage. All feedstocks for the chemical industry can be obtained from these biomass components, as shown in the first part of this paper. In the second part we discuss how the major products from petrochemicals can be obtained from the different biomass components. We show that Brazil can use different strategies, compared to other countries, to obtain petrochemical products, which could result in innovations. However, it is necessary that the government starts to invest immediately in order to keep the petrochemical industries competitive with foreign industries, so that they continue to be one of Brazil's major employers.

Dispositivos poliméricos eletroluminescentes

Here we present an overview of electroluminescent devices that use conjugated polymers as the active media. The principal components of the devices are described and we show some examples of conjugated polymers and copolymers usually employed in polymeric light emitting devices (PLED). Some aspects of the photo and electroluminescence properties as well as of the energy transfer processes are discussed. As an example, we present some of the photophysical properties of poly(fluorene)s, a class of conjugated polymers with blue emission.

Adaptación del Índice de Bienestar Personal para adolescentes en lengua española y portuguesa

The psychometric properties of the Personal Wellbeing Index are analyzed on a Spanish and Portuguese adolescent sample. We test the reliability of the scale using Cronbach’s alpha. And complementarily we analyze the item-total correlations in the different wellbeing domains included. We execute an exploratory factor analysis (principal components) and a multigroup Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA). The results show that Cronbach’s alpha is 0.79 for the Chilean version and in the Brazilian version is 0.78 confirming adequate levels of reliability found in previous studies. Correlations between fields of well-being shows values ranging between 0.224 and 0.496 for Chile and from 0.24 to 0.46 for Brazil. The results are similar to those obtained in other countries. The monofactorial structure of the scale is cinfirmed, also the adjustment to the scale structure to the data of the two samples and the comparability of means of global indices. The results suggest the existence of other well-being domains that had not been considered in the original proposal of the scale

Constituintes voláteis de própolis piauiense

The essential oils of five samples obtained in different regions of the state of Piaui were analyzed by GC-MS. Ninety-one volatile constituents were tentatively identified and eight were positively identified. The principal components obtained from each sample were: 1,8-cineole, exo-fenchol, terpin-4-ol and fenchone (Teresina), a-pinene, caryophyllene oxide, b-pinene and a-copaene (Pio IX), (E)-caryophyllene, a-copaene, a-pinene, caryophyllene oxide and d-cadinene (Campo Maior), (E)-caryophyllene, a-gurjunene and b-selinene (Pedro II) and (E)-caryophyllene, a-gurjunene, d-cadinene and a-copaene (Lagoa de Sao Francisco). The five samples presented differences in the chemical composition of volatile fractions. The studies pointed out the need of characterizing propolis from Piaui by geographic regions and by seasons (drought and rainy periods).

Avaliação da qualidade do corpo hídrico do rio Tibagi na região de Ponta Grossa utilizando análise de componentes principais (PCA)

The aim of this paper was to evaluate alterations in the quality of the water of the Tibagi River caused by the urban and industrial activities in the region of Ponta Grossa. The study involved the monitoring of physico-chemical and microbiological parameters of the water body, which were evaluated by a principal components analysis routine. Sample collections were carried out monthly during one year (October of 2005 to September of 2006), at 3 sampling points: upstream and downstream of the industrial district and downstream from the city of Ponta Grossa. The principal components analysis showed the effect of point sources associated with industrial activity, which contribute to the rise of total concentration of amoniacal nitrogen and the reduction of dissolved oxygen in the studied region.