IL28B polymorphisms, IP-10 and viral load predict virological response to therapy in chronic hepatitis C.

Aliment Pharmacol Ther 2011; 33: 1162-1172 SUMMARY: Background  Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major cause of chronic liver disease, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma and the identification of the predictors of response to antiviral therapy is an important clinical issue. Aim  To determine the independent contribution of factors including IL28B polymorphisms, IFN-gamma inducible protein-10 (IP-10) levels and the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) score in predicting response to therapy in chronic hepatitis C (CHC). Methods  Multivariate analysis of factors predicting rapid (RVR) and sustained (SVR) virological response in 280 consecutive, treatment-naive CHC patients treated with peginterferon alpha and ribavirin in a prospective multicentre study. Results  Independent predictors of RVR were HCV RNA <400 000 IU/mL (OR 11.37; 95% CI 3.03-42.6), rs12980275 AA (OR 7.09; 1.97-25.56) and IP-10 (OR 0.04; 0.003-0.56) in HCV genotype 1 patients and lower baseline γ-glutamyl-transferase levels (OR = 0.02; 0.0009-0.31) in HCV genotype 3 patients. Independent predictors of SVR were rs12980275 AA (OR 9.68; 3.44-27.18), age <40 years (OR = 4.79; 1.50-15.34) and HCV RNA <400 000 IU/mL (OR 2.74; 1.03-7.27) in HCV genotype 1 patients and rs12980275 AA (OR = 6.26; 1.98-19.74) and age <40 years (OR 5.37; 1.54-18.75) in the 88 HCV genotype 1 patients without a RVR. RVR was by itself predictive of SVR in HCV genotype 1 patients (OR 33.0; 4.06-268.32) and the only independent predictor of SVR in HCV genotype 2 (OR 9.0, 1.72-46.99) or genotype 3 patients (OR 7.8, 1.43-42.67). Conclusions  In HCV genotype 1 patients, IL28B polymorphisms, HCV RNA load and IP-10 independently predict RVR. The combination of IL28B polymorphisms, HCV RNA level and age may yield more accurate pre-treatment prediction of SVR. HOMA-IR score is not associated with viral response.

Predictors of developmental dyslexia in European orthographies with varying complexity.

Background:  The relationship between phoneme awareness, rapid automatized naming (RAN), verbal short-term/working memory (ST/WM) and diagnostic category is investigated in control and dyslexic children, and the extent to which this depends on orthographic complexity. Methods:  General cognitive, phonological and literacy skills were tested in 1,138 control and 1,114 dyslexic children speaking six different languages spanning a large range of orthographic complexity (Finnish, Hungarian, German, Dutch, French, English). Results:  Phoneme deletion and RAN were strong concurrent predictors of developmental dyslexia, while verbal ST/WM and general verbal abilities played a comparatively minor role. In logistic regression models, more participants were classified correctly when orthography was more complex. The impact of phoneme deletion and RAN-digits was stronger in complex than in less complex orthographies. Conclusions:  Findings are largely consistent with the literature on predictors of dyslexia and literacy skills, while uniquely demonstrating how orthographic complexity exacerbates some symptoms of dyslexia.

A prospective study of predictors of poststroke depression.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between early depressive behavior after stroke onset and occurrence of poststroke depression (PSD) at 3- and 12-month follow-up evaluations. METHODS: The study prospectively included 273 patients with first-ever single uncomplicated ischemic stroke. In the stroke unit, nurses scored crying, overt sadness, and apathy daily using an observational method to include patients with comprehension deficits. The Barthel Index was used to assess disability. Follow-up evaluation at months 3 and 12 included psychiatric assessment based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition. RESULTS: Crying (19.8%), overt sadness (50.5%), and apathy (47.6%) were observed. Of the patients observed crying, 4 showed pathologic crying, 19 emotionalism, and 12 catastrophic reactions. Crying and overt sadness, but not apathy, were associated with a subjective experience of depression (p < 0.05). Thirty of 52 (58%) patients observed crying, 12 of 19 (63%) patients with emotionalism, and 5 of 12 (41%) patients with catastrophic reactions developed PSD within the first year. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that only severe functional disability (odds ratio [OR], 4.31; 95% CI, 2.41 to 7.69), crying behaviors (OR, 2.66; 95% CI, 1.35 to 5.27), and an age <68 years (OR, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.30 to 4.13) were (p < 0.05) predictors of late PSD development (13% of the variance). CONCLUSIONS: In the stroke unit, crying and overt sadness are more reliable indicators of depressed mood than apathy. In patients with first-ever stroke, crying behaviors soon after stroke, a younger age, and severe disability are predictors of poststroke depression occurrence within the first year after stroke onset.

The impact of cyclin D1 mRNA isoforms, morphology and p53 in mantle cell lymphoma: p53 alterations and blastoid morphology are strong predictors of a high proliferation index.

BACKGROUND: Mantle cell lymphoma is a clinically heterogeneous disease characterized by overexpression of cyclin D1 protein. Blastoid morphology, high proliferation, and secondary genetic aberrations are markers of aggressive behavior. Expression profiling of mantle cell lymphoma revealed that predominance of the 3'UTR-deficient, short cyclin D1 mRNA isoform was associated with high cyclin D1 levels, a high "proliferation signature" and poor prognosis. DESIGN AND METHODS: Sixty-two cases of mantle cell lymphoma were analyzed for cyclin D1 mRNA isoforms and total cyclin D1 levels by real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction, and TP53 alterations were assessed by immunohistochemistry and molecular analysis. Results were correlated with proliferation index and clinical outcome. RESULTS: Predominance of the short cyclin D1 mRNA was found in 14 (23%) samples, including four with complete loss of the standard transcript. TP53 alterations were found in 15 (24%) cases. Predominance of 3'UTR-deficient mRNA was significantly associated with high cyclin D1 mRNA levels (P=0.009) and more commonly found in blastoid mantle cell lymphoma (5/11, P=0.060) and cases with a proliferation index of >20% (P=0.026). Both blastoid morphology (11/11, P<0.001) and TP53 alterations (15/15, P<0.001) were significantly correlated with a high proliferation index. A proliferation index of 10% was determined to be a significant threshold for survival in multivariate analysis (P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: TP53 alterations are strongly associated with a high proliferation index and aggressive behavior in mantle cell lymphoma. Predominance of the 3'UTR-deficient transcript correlates with higher cyclin D1 levels and may be a secondary contributing factor to high proliferation, but failed to reach prognostic significance in this study.

Pre-pregnancy and pregnancy predictors of obesity.

Obesity has progressively become a global epidemic that constitutes one of the biggest current health problems worldwide. Pregnancy is a risk factor for excessive weight gain. Factors that may predict development of obesity in later life mainly include gestational weight gain, pre-pregnancy nutritional status, age, parity and race. Change in lifestyle factors, such as eating habits, enrollment in physical activity, smoking and duration of lactation, in addition to the above factors, may also contribute to the development of obesity but are still not fully understood. Women who retain more body weight after pregnancy have, in general, larger pregnancy body weight gain, higher pre-pregnancy body mass index, marked weight changes in previous pregnancies, lactate slightly less and stop smoking during pregnancy to a larger extent. In addition, irregular eating habits and decreased leisure time activity after delivery influence postpartum weight retention. Taking into consideration the epidemic of obesity, with all its adverse long-term consequences, there is an increasing need to promote counseling before, during and after pregnancy on the role of diet and physical activity in reproductive health.

Predictors of onset of cannabis and other drug use in male young adults: results from a longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: The use of cannabis and other illegal drugs is particularly prevalent in male young adults and is associated with severe health problems. This longitudinal study explored variables associated with the onset of cannabis use and the onset of illegal drug use other than cannabis separately in male young adults, including demographics, religion and religiosity, health, social context, substance use, and personality. Furthermore, we explored how far the gateway hypothesis and the common liability to addiction model are in line with the resulting prediction models. METHODS: The data were gathered within the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF). Young men aged around 20 years provided demographic, social, health, substance use, and personality-related data at baseline. Onset of cannabis and other drug use were assessed at 15-months follow-up. Samples of 2,774 and 4,254 individuals who indicated at baseline that they have not used cannabis and other drugs, respectively, in their life and who provided follow-up data were used for the prediction models. Hierarchical logistic stepwise regressions were conducted, in order to identify predictors of the late onset of cannabis and other drug use separately. RESULTS: Not providing for oneself, having siblings, depressiveness, parental divorce, lower parental knowledge of peers and the whereabouts, peer pressure, very low nicotine dependence, and sensation seeking were positively associated with the onset of cannabis use. Practising religion was negatively associated with the onset of cannabis use. Onset of drug use other than cannabis showed a positive association with depressiveness, antisocial personality disorder, lower parental knowledge of peers and the whereabouts, psychiatric problems of peers, problematic cannabis use, and sensation seeking. CONCLUSIONS: Consideration of the predictor variables identified within this study may help to identify young male adults for whom preventive measures for cannabis or other drug use are most appropriate. The results provide evidence for both the gateway hypothesis and the common liability to addiction model and point to further variables like depressiveness or practising of religion that might influence the onset of drug use.

A systematic review of longitudinal population-based studies on the predictors of smoking cessation in adolescent and young adult smokers.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the determinants of self-initiated smoking cessation of duration of at least 6 months as identified in longitudinal population-based studies of adolescent and young adult smokers. METHODS: A systematic search of the PubMed and EMBASE databases using smoking, tobacco, cessation, quit and stop as keywords was performed. Limits included articles related to humans, in English, published between January 1984 and August 2010, and study population aged 10-29 years. A total of 4502 titles and 871 abstracts were reviewed independently by 2 and 3 reviewers, respectively. Nine articles were retained for data abstraction. Data on study location, timeframe, duration of follow-up, number of data collection points, sample size, age/grade of participants, number of quitters, smoking status at baseline, definition of cessation, covariates and analytic method were abstracted from each article. The number of studies that reported a statistically significant association between each determinant investigated and cessation were tabulated, from among all studies that assessed the determinant. RESULTS: Despite heterogeneity in methods across studies, five factors robustly predicted quitting across studies in which the factor was investigated: not having friends who smoke, not having intentions to smoke in the future, resisting peer pressure to smoke, being older at first use of cigarette and having negative beliefs about smoking. CONCLUSIONS: The literature on longitudinal predictors of cessation in adolescent and young adult smokers is not well developed. Cessation interventions for this population will remain less than optimally effective until there is a solid evidence base on which to develop interventions.

Cerebral infarction in diabetes: Clinical pattern, stroke subtypes,and predictors of in-hospital mortality

Background: To compare the characteristics and prognostic features of ischemic stroke in patients with diabetes and without diabetes, and to determine the independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in people with diabetes and ischemic stroke.Methods: Diabetes was diagnosed in 393 (21.3%) of 1,840 consecutive patients with cerebral infarction included in a prospective stroke registry over a 12-year period. Demographic characteristics, cardiovascular risk factors, clinical events, stroke subtypes, neuroimaging data, and outcome in ischemic stroke patients with and without diabetes were compared. Predictors of in-hospital mortality in diabetic patients with ischemic stroke were assessed by multivariate analysis. Results: People with diabetes compared to people without diabetes presented more frequently atherothrombotic stroke (41.2% vs 27%) and lacunar infarction (35.1% vs 23.9%) (P < 0.01). The in-hospital mortality in ischemic stroke patients with diabetes was 12.5% and 14.6% in those without (P = NS). Ischemic heart disease, hyperlipidemia, subacute onset, 85 years old or more, atherothrombotic and lacunar infarcts, and thalamic topography were independently associated with ischemic stroke in patients with diabetes, whereas predictors of in-hospital mortality included the patient's age, decreased consciousness, chronic nephropathy, congestive heart failure and atrial fibrillation. Conclusion: Ischemic stroke in people with diabetes showed a different clinical pattern from those without diabetes, with atherothrombotic stroke and lacunar infarcts being more frequent. Clinical factors indicative of the severity of ischemic stroke available at onset have a predominant influence upon in-hospital mortality and may help clinicians to assess prognosis more accurately.

Predictors of the Indefinite Duration Anticoagulation Treatment Strategy In Patients with Cancer Associated Thrombosis

Background: In patients with cancer and acute venous thromboembolism (VTE), current consensus guidelines recommend anticoagulation therapy for an indefinite duration or until the cancer is resolved.Methods and results: Among 1'247 patients with acute VTE enrolled in the Swiss Venous Thromboembolism Registry (SWIVTER) from 18 hospitals, 315 (25%) had cancer of whom 179 (57%) had metastatic disease, 159 (50%) ongoing or recent chemotherapy, and 83 (26%) tumor surgery within 6 months. Patients with cancer were older (66±14 vs. 60±19 years, p<0.001), more often hospitalized at the time of VTE diagnosis (46% vs. 36%, p=0.001), immobile for >3 days (25% vs. 16%, p<0.001), and more often had thrombocytopenia (6% vs. 1%, p<0.001) than patients without cancer. The 30-day rate of VTE-related death or recurrent VTE was 9% in cancer patients vs. 4% in patients without cancer (p<0.001), and the rates of bleeding requiring medical attention were 5% in both groups (p=0.57). Cancer patients received indefinite-duration anticoagulation treatment more often than patients without cancer (47% vs. 19%, p<0.001), and LMWH mono-therapy during the initial 3 months was prescribed to 45% vs. 8%, p<0.001, respectively. Among patients with cancer, prior VTE (OR 4.0, 95%CI 2.0-8.0), metastatic disease (OR 3.0, 95%CI 1.7-5.2), outpatient status at the time of VTE diagnosis (OR 3.8, 95%CI 1.9-7.6), and inpatient treatment (OR 4.4, 95%CI 2.1-9.2) were independently associated with the prescription of indefinite-duration anticoagulation treatment.Conclusions: Less than half of the cancer patients with acute VTE received a prescription for indefinite-duration anticoagulation treatment. Recurrent VTE, metastatic cancer, outpatient VTE diagnosis, and VTE requiring hospitalization were associated with an increased use of this strategy.

Predictors of death among patients who completed tuberculosis treatment: a population-based cohort study.

Background: Mortality among patients who complete tuberculosis (TB) treatment is still high among vulnerable populations. The objective of the study was to identify the probability of death and its predictive factors in a cohort of successfully treated TB patients. Methods: A population-based retrospective longitudinal study was performed in Barcelona, Spain. All patients who successfully completed TB treatment with culture-confirmation and available drug susceptibility testing between 1995 1997 were retrospectively followed-up until December 31, 2005 by the Barcelona TB Control Program. Socio-demographic, clinical, microbiological and treatment variables were examined. Mortality, TB Program and AIDS registries were reviewed. Kaplan-Meier and a Cox regression methods with time-dependent covariates were used for the survival analysis, calculating the hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Among the 762 included patients, the median age was 36 years, 520 (68.2%) were male, 178 (23.4%) HIV-infected, and 208 (27.3%) were alcohol abusers. Of the 134 (17.6%) injecting drug users (IDU), 123 (91.8%) were HIV-infected. A total of 30 (3.9%) recurrences and 173 deaths (22.7%) occurred (mortality rate: 3.4/100 person-years of follow-up). The predictors of death were: age between 4160 years old (HR: 3.5; CI:2.15.7), age greater than 60 years (HR: 14.6; CI:8.924), alcohol abuse (HR: 1.7; CI:1.22.4) and HIV-infected IDU (HR: 7.9; CI:4.713.3). Conclusions: The mortality rate among TB patients who completed treatment is associated with vulnerable populations such as the elderly, alcohol abusers, and HIV-infected IDU. We therefore need to fight against poverty, and promote and develop interventions and social policies directed towards these populations to improve their survival.

Predictors of endocarditis in isolates from cultures of blood following dental extractions in rats with periodontal disease.

Rats with periodontitis and catheter-induced aortic valve vegetations underwent dental extractions. Cultures of blood obtained 1 min later showed polymicrobial bacteremia in 19 of 19 rats, mostly due to viridans streptococci (18 of 19), Morganella (15 of 19), group G streptococci (13 of 19), and Staphylococcus aureus (10 of 19). Viridans streptococci circulated in higher numbers than did group G streptococci and S. aureus (P less than .01). Three days after dental extractions, 18 of 20 rats had endocarditis. Fifteen (83%) of 18 infections were due to group G streptococci, 9 (50%) of 18 were due to S. aureus, and 2 (11%) of 18 were due to viridans streptococci (P less than .05). In vitro, adherence to platelet-fibrin matrices of endocarditis strain 8 of group G streptococcus was two times greater than that of endocarditis strain S. aureus 23 and three to four times greater than that of Streptococcus sanguis 44 and Morganella morganii 93 (P less than 10(-5)). The inoculum size that produced endocarditis in 90% of rats after iv challenge was 10(5) cfu for group G streptococcus strain 8 and 10(7) for S. sanguis 44.

Using register data to assess the impact of response enhancement methods on the risk of nonresponse bias and survey costs

The pursuit of high response rates to minimise the threat of nonresponse bias continues to dominate decisions about resource allocation in survey research. Yet a growing body of research has begun to question this practice. In this study, we use previously unavailable data from a new sampling frame based on population registers to assess the value of different methods designed to increase response rates on the European Social Survey in Switzerland. Using sampling data provides information about both respondents and nonrespondents, making it possible to examine how changes in response rates resulting from the use of different fieldwork methods relate to changes in the composition and representativeness of the responding sample. We compute an R-indicator to assess representativity with respect to the sampling register variables, and find little improvement in the sample composition as response rates increase. We then examine the impact of response rate increases on the risk of nonresponse bias based on Maximal Absolute Bias (MAB), and coefficients of variation between subgroup response rates, alongside the associated costs of different types of fieldwork effort. The results show that increases in response rate help to reduce MAB, while only small but important improvements to sample representativity are gained by varying the type of effort. These findings lend further support to research that has called into question the value of extensive investment in procedures aimed at reaching response rate targets and the need for more tailored fieldwork strategies aimed both at reducing survey costs and minimising the risk of bias.