Development of predictive models for cement stabilized soils

Factors that affect the engineering properties of cement stabilized soils such as strength are discussed in this paper using data on these factors. The selected factors studied in this paper are initial soil water content, grain size distribution, organic matter content, binder dosage, age and curing temperature, which has been collated from a number of international deep mixing projects. Some resulting correlations from this data are discussed and presented. The concept of Artificial Neural Networks and its applicability in developing predictive models for deep mixed soils is presented and discussed using a subset of the collated data. The results from the neural network model were found to emulate the known trends and reasonable estimates of strength as a function of the selected variables were obtained. © 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Using HPLC retention parameters to estimate fish bioconcentration factors of organic compounds

Reversed-phase high performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC) was employed to develop predictive models for fish bioconcentration factors (BCF) of organic compounds. Estimation of BCF from RP-HPLC retention parameters on octadecyl-bonded silica gel (ODS), cyanopropyl-bonded silica gel (CN), and phenyl-bonded silica gel (Ph) columns were investigated. The results show that, for a set of compounds belonging to different chemical classes, the CN stationary phase is the best one among the three columns and better than n-octanol/water model for BCF estimation. A multi-column RP-HPLC model, using the retention parameters on the CN and Ph columns as the variables of multiple linear regression equations, was further evaluated to estimate BCF of organic compounds belonging to different chemical classes, and the results show that the multi-column RP-HPLC model is better than that of any single RP-HPLC column for BCF estimation.

The Macroeconomic Factors Conditioning the Impact of Identity on Attitudes towards the EU

Factors relating to identity and to economics have been shown to be important predictors of attitudes towards the European Union (EU). In this article, we show that the impact of identity is conditional on economic context. First, living in a member state that receives relatively high levels of EU funding acts as a 'buffer', diluting the impact of an exclusive national identity on Euroscepticism. Second, living in a relatively wealthy member state, with its associated attractiveness for economic migrants, increases the salience of economic xenophobia as a driver of sceptical attitudes. These results highlight the importance of seeing theories of attitude formation (such as economic and identity theories) not as competitors but rather as complementary, with the predictive strength of one theoretical approach (identity) being a function of system-level variation in factors relating to the other theoretical approach (macro-level economic conditions).

Factors identifying pigs predisposed to tail biting

Approximately 5% of pigs slaughtered in the UK have been tail-bitten, leading to welfare and production issues. Tail biting is sporadic and not all pigs tail bite. The aim of this study was to identify factors that are common in pigs that perform tail-biting behaviour, and that might be used in a predictive way to identify such animals.

The behaviour of 159 pigs was observed in the post-weaning period. Pigs were weaned at 4 weeks of age. In the week prior to weaning and at 6 weeks of age each pig was individually tested in a tail chew test (tail chew test 1 and 2, respectively). The tail chew test involved recording the pig's behaviour directed towards two ropes, one of which had been soaked in saline solution and the other not. The production performance of the pigs was recorded from birth to 7 weeks of age. Time spent performing tail-biting behaviour correlated positively with time in contact with the rope in tail chew test 2 (r = 0.224, P 1.5% tail biting 8.96 kg, = 1.5% tail biting 15-75 kg, = or = 1.5% tail biting 260 g/day, = 1.5% tail biting 343 g/day, 0.05).

The results suggest that pigs that tail bite have some nutritional deficiency that results in performance of foraging behaviour that is expressed in intensive housing as ear/tail biting.

Body Mass Index Is More Predictive of Progenitor Number in Bone Marrow Stromal Cell Population Than Age in Men: Expanding the Predictors of the Progenitor Compartment

Research has focused on in vitro expansion of bone marrow stromal cells with the aim of developing cell-based therapies or tissue-engineered constructs. There is debate over whether there is a reduction in stem cells/osteoprogenitors in the bone marrow compartment with increasing age. The aim of this study was to investigate patient factors that affect the progenitor pool in bone marrow samples. Six milliliters of marrow aspirate was obtained from the femoral canal of 38 primary hip replacement patients (aged 28-91). Outcome measures were total nucleated cell count, colony-forming efficiency, alkaline phosphatase expression, and expression of stem cell markers. There was a nonsignificant negative correlation between age and both colony-forming efficiency and stem cell marker expression. However, body mass index showed a positive, significant correlation with colony area and number in men-accounting for up to 75% of the variation. In conclusion, body mass index, not age, was highly predictive of the number of progenitors found in bone marrow, and this relationship was sex specific. These results may inform the clinician's treatment choice when considering bone marrow-based therapies. Further, it highlights the need to widen research into patient factors that affect the adult stem cell population beyond age and reinforces the need to consider sexes separately.

Influence of drugs, demographics and medical history on hospital readmission of elderly patients - A predictive model

Objective: To investigate factors that influence hospital readmissions of elderly patients and to construct a robust hospital readmissions predictive model.

Relevance of breast cancer hormone receptors and other factors to the efficacy of adjuvant tamoxifen: patient-level meta-analysis of randomised trials

Background: As trials of 5 years of tamoxifen in early breast cancer mature, the relevance of hormone receptor measurements (and other patient characteristics) to long-term outcome can be assessed increasingly reliably. We report updated meta-analyses of the trials of 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen.
Methods: We undertook a collaborative meta-analysis of individual patient data from 20 trials (n=21457) in early breast cancer of about 5 years of tamoxifen versus no adjuvant tamoxifen, with about 80% compliance. Recurrence and death rate ratios (RRs) were from log-rank analyses by allocated treatment.
Findings: In oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease (n=10 645), allocation to about 5 years of tamoxifen substantially reduced recurrence rates throughout the first 10 years (RR 0.53 [SE 0.03] during years 0-4 and RR 0.68 [0.06] during years 5-9 [both 2p<0.00001]; but RR 0.97 [0.10] during years 10-14, suggesting no further gain or loss after year 10). Even in marginally ER-positive disease (10-19 fmol/mg cytosol protein) the recurrence reduction was substantial (RR 0.67 [0.08]). In ER-positive disease, the RR was approximately independent of progesterone receptor status (or level), age, nodal status, or use of chemotherapy. Breast cancer mortality was reduced by about a third throughout the first 15 years (RR 0.71 [0.05] during years 0-4, 0.66 [0.05] during years 5-9, and 0.68 [0.08] during years 10-14; p<0.0001 for extra mortality reduction during each separate time period). Overall non-breast-cancer mortality was little affected, despite small absolute increases in thromboembolic and uterine cancer mortality (both only in women older than 55 years), so all-cause mortality was substantially reduced. In ER-negative disease, tamoxifen had little or no effect on breast cancer recurrence or mortality.
Interpretation: 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen safely reduces 15-year risks of breast cancer recurrence and death. ER status was the only recorded factor importantly predictive of the proportional reductions. Hence, the absolute risk reductions produced by tamoxifen depend on the absolute breast cancer risks (after any chemotherapy) without tamoxifen.
Funding: Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, and Medical Research Council.

Anti-angiogenic factors and pre-eclampsia in type 1 diabetic women

Aims/hypothesis: Elevated anti-angiogenic factors such as soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt1), a soluble form of vascular endothelial growth factor receptor, and endoglin, a co-receptor for TGFß1, confer high risk of pre-eclampsia in healthy pregnant women. In this multicentre prospective study, we determined levels of these and related factors in pregnant women with type 1 diabetes, a condition associated with a fourfold increase in pre-eclampsia.
Methods: Maternal serum sFlt1, endoglin, placental growth factor (PlGF) and pigment epithelial derived factor were measured in 151 type 1 diabetic and 24 healthy non-diabetic women at each trimester and at term.
Results: Approximately 22% of the diabetic women developed pre-eclampsia, primarily after their third trimester visit. In women with pre-eclampsia (diabetic pre-eclampsia, n?=?26) vs those without hypertensive complications (diabetic normotensive, n?=?95), significant changes in angiogenic factors were observed, predominantly in the early third trimester and prior to clinical manifestation of pre-eclampsia. Serum sFlt1 levels were increased approximately twofold in type 1 diabetic pre-eclampsia vs type 1 diabetic normotensive women at the third trimester visit (p?<?0.05) and the normal rise of PlGF during pregnancy was blunted (p?<?0.05). Among type 1 diabetic women, third trimester sFlt1 and PlGF were inversely related (r2?=?42%, p?<?0.0001). Endoglin levels were increased significantly in the diabetic group as a whole vs the non-diabetic group (p?<?0.0001).
Conclusions/interpretation: Higher sFlt1 levels, a blunted PlGF rise and an elevated sFlt1/PlGF ratio are predictive of pre-eclampsia in pregnant women with type 1 diabetes. Elevated endoglin levels in women with type 1 diabetes may confer a predisposition to pre-eclampsia and may contribute to the high incidence of pre-eclampsia in this patient group.

Clinical and technical factors associated with skin intrinsic fluorescence in subjects with type 1 diabetes from the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial/Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications Study

The Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT)/Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications(EDIC) studies have established multiyear mean hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) as predictive of microvascular complications in persons with type 1 diabetes. However, multiyear mean HbA1c is not always available in the clinical setting. Skin advanced glycation end products (AGEs) are thought to partially reflect effects of hyperglycemia over time, and measurement of skin AGEs might be a surrogate for multiyear mean HbA1c. As certain AGEs fluoresce and skin fluorescence has been demonstrated to correlate with the concentration of skin AGEs, noninvasive measurement by skin intrinsic fluorescence(SIF) facilitates the exploration of the association of mean HbA1c and other clinical/technical factors with SIF using the detailed phenotypic database available in DCCT/EDIC.

The role of angiogenic and antiangiogenic factors in the second trimester in the prediction of preeclampsia in pregnant women with type 1 diabetes

OBJECTIVE To assess the association between circulating angiogenic and antiangiogenic factors in the second trimester and risk of preeclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Maternal plasma concentrations of placental growth factor (PlGF), soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt-1), and soluble endoglin (sEng) were available at 26 weeks of gestation in 540 women with type 1 diabetes enrolled in the Diabetes and Preeclampsia Intervention Trial.

RESULTS Preeclampsia developed in 17% of pregnancies (n = 94). At 26 weeks of gestation, women in whom preeclampsia developed later had significantly lower PlGF (median [interquartile range]: 231 pg/mL [120–423] vs. 365 pg/mL [237–582]; P < 0.001), higher sFlt-1 (1,522 pg/mL [1,108–3,393] vs. 1,193 pg/mL [844–1,630] P < 0.001), and higher sEng (6.2 ng/mL [4.9–7.9] vs. 5.1 ng/mL[(4.3–6.2]; P < 0.001) compared with women who did not have preeclampsia. In addition, the ratio of PlGF to sEng was significantly lower (40 [17–71] vs. 71 [44–114]; P < 0.001) and the ratio of sFlt-1 to PlGF was significantly higher (6.3 [3.4–15.7] vs. 3.1 [1.8–5.8]; P < 0.001) in women who later developed preeclampsia. The addition of the ratio of PlGF to sEng or the ratio of sFlt-1 to PlGF to a logistic model containing established risk factors (area under the curve [AUC], 0.813) significantly improved the predictive value (AUC, 0.850 and 0.846, respectively; P < 0.01) and significantly improved reclassification according to the integrated discrimination improvement index (IDI) (IDI scores 0.086 and 0.065, respectively; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS These data suggest that angiogenic and antiangiogenic factors measured during the second trimester are predictive of preeclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes. The addition of the ratio of PlGF to sEng or the ratio of sFlt-1 to PlGF to established clinical risk factors significantly improves the prediction of preeclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes.

Preeclampsia is characterized by the development of hypertension and new-onset proteinuria during the second half of pregnancy (1,2), leading to increased maternal morbidity and mortality (3). Women with type 1 diabetes are at increased risk for development of preeclampsia during pregnancy, with rates being two-times to four-times higher than that of the background maternity population (4,5). Small advances have come from preventive measures, such as low-dose aspirin in women at high risk (6); however, delivery remains the only effective intervention, and preeclampsia is responsible for up to 15% of preterm births and a consequent increase in infant mortality and morbidity (7).

Although the etiology of preeclampsia remains unclear, abnormal placental vascular remodeling and placental ischemia, together with maternal endothelial dysfunction, hemodynamic changes, and renal pathology, contribute to its pathogenesis (8). In addition, over the past decade accumulating evidence has suggested that an imbalance between angiogenic factors, such as placental growth factor (PlGF), and antiangiogenic factors, such as soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt-1) and soluble endoglin (sEng), plays a key role in the pathogenesis of preeclampsia (8,9). In women at low risk (10–13) and women at high risk (14,15), concentrations of angiogenic and antiangiogenic factors are significantly different between women who later develop preeclampsia (lower PlGF, higher sFlt-1, and higher sEng levels) compared with women who do not.

Few studies have specifically focused on circulating angiogenic factors and risk of preeclampsia in women with diabetes, and the results have been conflicting. In a small study, higher sFlt-1 and lower PlGF were reported at the time of delivery in women with diabetes who developed preeclampsia (16). In a longitudinal prospective cohort of pregnant women with diabetes, Yu et al. (17) reported increased sFlt-1 and reduced PlGF in the early third trimester as potential predictors of preeclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes, but they did not show any difference in sEng levels in women with preeclampsia compared with women without preeclampsia. By contrast, Powers et al. (18) reported only increased sEng in the second trimester in women with pregestational diabetes who developed preeclampsia.

The aim of this study, which was significantly larger than the previous studies highlighted, was to assess the association between circulating angiogenic (PlGF) and antiangiogenic (sFlt-1 and sEng) factors and the risk of preeclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes. A further aim was to evaluate the added predictive ability and clinical usefulness of angiogenic factors and established risk factors for preeclampsia risk prediction in women with type 1 diabetes.

Machine Learning for Predictive Maintenance: A Multiple Classifiers Approach

In this paper a multiple classifier machine learning methodology for Predictive Maintenance (PdM) is presented. PdM is a prominent strategy for dealing with maintenance issues given the increasing need to minimize downtime and associated costs. One of the challenges with PdM is generating so called ’health factors’ or quantitative indicators of the status of a system associated with a given maintenance issue, and determining their relationship to operating costs and failure risk. The proposed PdM methodology allows dynamical decision rules to be adopted for maintenance management and can be used with high-dimensional and censored data problems. This is achieved by training multiple classification modules with different prediction horizons to provide different performance trade-offs in terms of frequency of unexpected breaks and unexploited lifetime and then employing this information in an operating cost based maintenance decision system to minimise expected costs. The effectiveness of the methodology is demonstrated using a simulated example and a benchmark semiconductor manufacturing maintenance problem.

Enhanced clinical pharmacy service targeting tools: risk-predictive algorithms

Rationale, aims and objectives: This study aimed to determine the value of using a mix of clinical pharmacy data and routine hospital admission spell data in the development of predictive algorithms. Exploration of risk factors in hospitalized patients, together with the targeting strategies devised, will enable the prioritization of clinical pharmacy services to optimize patient outcomes. 

Methods: Predictive algorithms were developed using a number of detailed steps using a 75% sample of integrated medicines management (IMM) patients, and validated using the remaining 25%. IMM patients receive targeted clinical pharmacy input throughout their hospital stay. The algorithms were applied to the validation sample, and predicted risk probability was generated for each patient from the coefficients. Risk threshold for the algorithms were determined by identifying the cut-off points of risk scores at which the algorithm would have the highest discriminative performance. Clinical pharmacy staffing levels were obtained from the pharmacy department staffing database. 

Results: Numbers of previous emergency admissions and admission medicines together with age-adjusted co-morbidity and diuretic receipt formed a 12-month post-discharge and/or readmission risk algorithm. Age-adjusted co-morbidity proved to be the best index to predict mortality. Increased numbers of clinical pharmacy staff at ward level was correlated with a reduction in risk-adjusted mortality index (RAMI). 

Conclusions: Algorithms created were valid in predicting risk of in-hospital and post-discharge mortality and risk of hospital readmission 3, 6 and 12 months post-discharge. The provision of ward-based clinical pharmacy services is a key component to reducing RAMI and enabling the full benefits of pharmacy input to patient care to be realized.

Predictive Value of Depressive Symptoms for All-Cause Mortality: Findings From the PRIME Belfast Study Examining the Role of Inflammation and Cardiovascular Risk Markers

OBJECTIVES: To improve understanding about the potential underlying biological mechanisms in the link between depression and all-cause mortality and to investigate the role that inflammatory and other cardiovascular risk factors may play in the relationship between depressive symptoms and mortality.

METHODS: Depression and blood-based biological markers were assessed in the Belfast PRIME prospective cohort study (N = 2389 men, aged 50-59 years) in which participants were followed up for 18 years. Depression was measured using the 10-item Welsh Pure Depression Inventory. Inflammation markers (C-reactive protein [CRP], neopterin, interleukin [IL]-1 receptor antagonist [IL-1Ra], and IL-18) and cardiovascular-specific risk factors (N-terminal pro-b-type natriuretic peptide, midregion pro-atrial natriuretic peptide, midregion pro-adrenomedullin, C-terminal pro-endothelin-1 [CT-proET]) were obtained at baseline. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling to examine the association between depression and biological measures in relation to all-cause mortality and explore the mediating effects.

RESULTS: During follow-up, 418 participants died. Higher levels of depressive symptoms were associated with higher levels of CRP, IL-1Ra, and CT-proET. After adjustment for socioeconomic and life-style risk factors, depressive symptoms were significantly associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio = 1.10 per scale unit, 95% confidence interval = 1.04-1.16). This association was partly explained by CRP (7.3%) suggesting a minimal mediation effect. IL-1Ra, N-terminal pro-b-type natriuretic peptide, midregion pro-atrial natriuretic peptide, midregion pro-adrenomedullin, and CT-proET contributed marginally to the association between depression and subsequent mortality.

CONCLUSIONS: Inflammatory and cardiovascular risk markers are associated with depression and with increased mortality. However, depression and biological measures show additive effects rather than a pattern of meditation of biological factors in the association between depression and mortality.

Factors associated with latent tuberculosis among asylum seekers in Switzerland: a cross-sectional study in Vaud County.

BACKGROUND: Screening and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in asylum seekers (AS) may prevent future cases of tuberculosis. As the screening with Interferon Gamma Release Assay (IGRA) is costly, the objective of this study was to assess which factors were associated with LTBI and to define a score allowing the selection of AS with the highest risk of LTBI. METHODS: In across-sectional study, AS seekers recently arrived in Vaud County, after screening for tuberculosis at the border were offered screening for LTBI with T-SPOT.TB and questionnaire on potentially risk factors. The factors associated with LTBI were analyzed by univariate and multivariate regression. RESULTS: Among 393 adult AS, 98 (24.93%) had a positive IGRA response, five of them with active tuberculosis previously undetected. Six factors associated with LTBI were identified in multivariate analysis: origin, travel conditions, marital status, cough, age and prior TB exposure. Their combination leads to a robust LTBI predictive score. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of LTBI and active tuberculosis in AS is high. A predictive score integrating six factors could identify the asylum seekers with the highest risk for LTBI.

Reduction in the use of diagnostic tests in infants with risk factors for early-onset neonatal sepsis does not delay antibiotic treatment.

Despite a low positive predictive value, diagnostic tests such as complete blood count (CBC) and C-reactive protein (CRP) are commonly used to evaluate whether infants with risk factors for early-onset neonatal sepsis (EOS) should be treated with antibiotics. We investigated the impact of implementing a protocol aiming at reducing the number of diagnostic tests in infants with risk factors for EOS in order to compare the diagnostic performance of repeated clinical examination with CBC and CRP measurement. The primary outcome was the time between birth and the first dose of antibiotics in infants treated for suspected EOS. Among the 11,503 infants born at ≥35 weeks during the study period, 222 were treated with antibiotics for suspected EOS. The proportion of infants receiving antibiotics for suspected EOS was 2.1% and 1.7% before and after the change of protocol (p = 0.09). Reduction of diagnostic tests was associated with earlier antibiotic treatment in infants treated for suspected EOS (hazard ratio 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20-2.07; p <0.001), and in infants with neonatal infection (hazard ratio 2.20; 95% CI 1.19-4.06; p = 0.01). There was no difference in the duration of hospital stay nor in the proportion of infants requiring respiratory or cardiovascular support before and after the change of protocol. Reduction of diagnostic tests such as CBC and CRP does not delay initiation of antibiotic treatment in infants with suspected EOS. The importance of clinical examination in infants with risk factors for EOS should be emphasised.