Geostatistics for constrained variables: positive data, compositions and probabilities. Applications to environmental hazard monitoring

Aquesta tesi estudia com estimar la distribució de les variables regionalitzades l'espai mostral i l'escala de les quals admeten una estructura d'espai Euclidià. Apliquem el principi del treball en coordenades: triem una base ortonormal, fem estadística sobre les coordenades de les dades, i apliquem els output a la base per tal de recuperar un resultat en el mateix espai original. Aplicant-ho a les variables regionalitzades, obtenim una aproximació única consistent, que generalitza les conegudes propietats de les tècniques de kriging a diversos espais mostrals: dades reals, positives o composicionals (vectors de components positives amb suma constant) són tractades com casos particulars. D'aquesta manera, es generalitza la geostadística lineal, i s'ofereix solucions a coneguts problemes de la no-lineal, tot adaptant la mesura i els criteris de representativitat (i.e., mitjanes) a les dades tractades. L'estimador per a dades positives coincideix amb una mitjana geomètrica ponderada, equivalent a l'estimació de la mediana, sense cap dels problemes del clàssic kriging lognormal. El cas composicional ofereix solucions equivalents, però a més permet estimar vectors de probabilitat multinomial. Amb una aproximació bayesiana preliminar, el kriging de composicions esdevé també una alternativa consistent al kriging indicador. Aquesta tècnica s'empra per estimar funcions de probabilitat de variables qualsevol, malgrat que sovint ofereix estimacions negatives, cosa que s'evita amb l'alternativa proposada. La utilitat d'aquest conjunt de tècniques es comprova estudiant la contaminació per amoníac a una estació de control automàtic de la qualitat de l'aigua de la conca de la Tordera, i es conclou que només fent servir les tècniques proposades hom pot detectar en quins instants l'amoni es transforma en amoníac en una concentració superior a la legalment permesa.

Birding 2.0: Citizen Science and Effective Monitoring in the Web 2.0 World

The amateur birding community has a long and proud tradition of contributing to bird surveys and bird atlases. Coordinated activities such as Breeding Bird Atlases and the Christmas Bird Count are examples of "citizen science" projects. With the advent of technology, Web 2.0 sites such as eBird have been developed to facilitate online sharing of data and thus increase the potential for real-time monitoring. However, as recently articulated in an editorial in this journal and elsewhere, monitoring is best served when based on a priori hypotheses. Harnessing citizen scientists to collect data following a hypothetico-deductive approach carries challenges. Moreover, the use of citizen science in scientific and monitoring studies has raised issues of data accuracy and quality. These issues are compounded when data collection moves into the Web 2.0 world. An examination of the literature from social geography on the concept of "citizen sensors" and volunteered geographic information (VGI) yields thoughtful reflections on the challenges of data quality/data accuracy when applying information from citizen sensors to research and management questions. VGI has been harnessed in a number of contexts, including for environmental and ecological monitoring activities. Here, I argue that conceptualizing a monitoring project as an experiment following the scientific method can further contribute to the use of VGI. I show how principles of experimental design can be applied to monitoring projects to better control for data quality of VGI. This includes suggestions for how citizen sensors can be harnessed to address issues of experimental controls and how to design monitoring projects to increase randomization and replication of sampled data, hence increasing scientific reliability and statistical power.

Construction of a historical Water Pollution Index for the Mersey Basin

The Mersey Basin has been significantly polluted for over 200 years. However, there is a lack of quantitative historical water quality data as effective water quality monitoring and data recording only began 30-40 years ago. This paper assesses water pollution in the Mersey Basin using a Water Pollution Index constructed from social and economic data. Methodology, output and the difficulties involved with validation are discussed. With the limited data input available the index approximately reproduces historical water quality. The paper illustrates how historical studies of environmental water quality may provide valuable identification of factors responsible for pollution and a marker set for contemporary and future water quality issues in the context of the past. This is an issue of growing research interest.

Estimating soil water fluxes from soil water records obtained using dielectric sensors

Accurate estimation of the soil water balance (SWB) is important for a number of applications (e.g. environmental, meteorological, agronomical and hydrological). The objective of this study was to develop and test techniques for the estimation of soil water fluxes and SWB components (particularly infiltration, evaporation and drainage below the root zone) from soil water records. The work presented here is based on profile soil moisture data measured using dielectric methods, at 30-min resolution, at an experimental site with different vegetation covers (barley, sunflower and bare soil). Estimates of infiltration were derived by assuming that observed gains in the soil profile water content during rainfall were due to infiltration. Inaccuracies related to diurnal fluctuations present in the dielectric-based soil water records are resolved by filtering the data with adequate threshold values. Inconsistencies caused by the redistribution of water after rain events were corrected by allowing for a redistribution period before computing water gains. Estimates of evaporation and drainage were derived from water losses above and below the deepest zero flux plane (ZFP), respectively. The evaporation estimates for the sunflower field were compared to evaporation data obtained with an eddy covariance (EC) system located elsewhere in the field. The EC estimate of total evaporation for the growing season was about 25% larger than that derived from the soil water records. This was consistent with differences in crop growth (based on direct measurements of biomass, and field mapping of vegetation using laser altimetry) between the EC footprint and the area of the field used for soil moisture monitoring. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Nutrient monitoring, simulation and management within a major lowland UK river system: the Kennet

This paper describes an assessment of the nitrogen and phosphorus dynamics of the River Kennet in the south east of England. The Kennet catchment (1200 km(2)) is a predominantly groundwater fed river impacted by agricultural and sewage sources of nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) pollution. The results from a suite of simulation models are integrated to assess the key spatial and temporal variations in the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) chemistry, and the influence of changes in phosphorous inputs from a Sewage Treatment Works on the macrophyte and epiphyte growth patterns. The models used are the Export Co-efficient model, the Integrated Nitrogen in Catchments model, and a new model of in-stream phosphorus and macrophyte dynamics: the 'Kennet' model. The paper concludes with a discussion on the present state of knowledge regarding the water quality functioning, future research needs regarding environmental modelling and the use of models as management tools for large, nutrient impacted riverine systems. (C) 2003 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

GNSS occultation sounding for climate monitoring

Considerable efforts are currently invested into the setup of a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) for monitoring climate change over the coming decades, which is of high relevance given concerns on increasing human influences. A promising potential contribution to the GCOS is a suite of spaceborne Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) occultation sensors for global long-term monitoring of atmospheric change in temperature and other variables with high vertical resolution and accuracy. Besides the great importance with respect to climate change, the provision of high quality data is essential for the improvement of numerical weather prediction and for reanalysis efforts. We review the significance of GNSS radio occultation sounding in the climate observations context. In order to investigate the climate change detection capability of GNSS occultation sensors, we are currently performing an end-to-end GNSS occultation observing system simulation experiment over the 25-year period 2001 to 2025. We report on this integrated analysis, which involves in a realistic manner all aspects from modeling the atmosphere via generating a significant set of stimulated measurements to an objective statistical analysis and assessment of 2001–2025 temporal trends.

An assessment of the surface ozone trend in Ireland relevant to air pollution and environmental protection

Hourly data (1994–2009) of surface ozone concentrations at eight monitoring sites have been investigated to assess target level and long–term objective exceedances and their trends. The European Union (EU) ozone target value for human health (60 ppb–maximum daily 8–hour running mean) has been exceeded for a number of years for almost all sites but never exceeded the set limit of 25 exceedances in one year. Second highest annual hourly and 4th highest annual 8–hourly mean ozone concentrations have shown a statistically significant negative trend for in–land sites of Cork–Glashaboy, Monaghan and Lough Navar and no significant trend for the Mace Head site. Peak afternoon ozone concentrations averaged over a three year period from 2007 to 2009 have been found to be lower than corresponding values over a three–year period from 1996 to 1998 for two sites: Cork–Glashaboy and Lough Navar sites. The EU long–term objective value of AOT40 (Accumulated Ozone Exposure over a threshold of 40 ppb) for protection of vegetation (3 ppm–hour, calculated from May to July) has been exceeded, on an individual year basis, for two sites: Mace Head and Valentia. The critical level for the protection of forest (10 ppm–hour from April to September) has not been exceeded for any site except at Valentia in the year 2003. AOT40–Vegetation shows a significant negative trend for a 3–year running average at Cork–Glashaboy (–0.13±0.02 ppm–hour per year), at Lough Navar (–0.05±0.02 ppm–hour per year) and at Monaghan (–0.03±0.03 ppm–hour per year–not statistically significant) sites. No statistically significant trend was observed for the coastal site of Mace head. Overall, with the exception of the Mace Head and Monaghan sites, ozone measurement records at Irish sites show a downward negative trend in peak values that affect human health and vegetation.

Ubiquitous grid resource monitoring

In any wide-area distributed system there is a need to communicate and interact with a range of networked devices and services ranging from computer-based ones (CPU, memory and disk), to network components (hubs, routers, gateways) and specialised data sources (embedded devices, sensors, data-feeds). In order for the ensemble of underlying technologies to provide an environment suitable for virtual organisations to flourish, the resources that comprise the fabric of the Grid must be monitored in a seamless manner that abstracts away from the underlying complexity. Furthermore, as various competing Grid middleware offerings are released and evolve, an independent overarching monitoring service should act as a corner stone that ties these systems together. GridRM is a standards-based approach that is independent of any given middleware and that can utilise legacy and emerging resource-monitoring technologies. The main objective of the project is to produce a standardised and extensible architecture that provides seamless mechanisms to interact with native monitoring agents across heterogeneous resources.

An enhanced fall detection system for elderly person monitoring using consumer home networks

Various fall-detection solutions have been previously proposed to create a reliable surveillance system for elderly people with high requirements on accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. In this paper, an enhanced fall detection system is proposed for elderly person monitoring that is based on smart sensors worn on the body and operating through consumer home networks. With treble thresholds, accidental falls can be detected in the home healthcare environment. By utilizing information gathered from an accelerometer, cardiotachometer and smart sensors, the impacts of falls can be logged and distinguished from normal daily activities. The proposed system has been deployed in a prototype system as detailed in this paper. From a test group of 30 healthy participants, it was found that the proposed fall detection system can achieve a high detection accuracy of 97.5%, while the sensitivity and specificity are 96.8% and 98.1% respectively. Therefore, this system can reliably be developed and deployed into a consumer product for use as an elderly person monitoring device with high accuracy and a low false positive rate.

A real-time measurement system for long-life flood monitoring and warning applications

A flood warning system incorporates telemetered rainfall and flow/water level data measured at various locations in the catchment area. Real-time accurate data collection is required for this use, and sensor networks improve the system capabilities. However, existing sensor nodes struggle to satisfy the hydrological requirements in terms of autonomy, sensor hardware compatibility, reliability and long-range communication. We describe the design and development of a real-time measurement system for flood monitoring, and its deployment in a flash-flood prone 650 km2 semiarid watershed in Southern Spain. A developed low-power and long-range communication device, so-called DatalogV1, provides automatic data gathering and reliable transmission. DatalogV1 incorporates self-monitoring for adapting measurement schedules for consumption management and to capture events of interest. Two tests are used to assess the success of the development. The results show an autonomous and robust monitoring system for long-term collection of water level data in many sparse locations during flood events.

Comparison of low-power wireless communication technologies for wearable health-monitoring applications

Health monitoring technologies such as Body Area Network (BAN) systems has gathered a lot of attention during the past few years. Largely encouraged by the rapid increase in the cost of healthcare services and driven by the latest technological advances in Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS) and wireless communications. BAN technology comprises of a network of body worn or implanted sensors that continuously capture and measure the vital parameters such as heart rate, blood pressure, glucose levels and movement. The collected data must be transferred to a local base station in order to be further processed. Thus, wireless connectivity plays a vital role in such systems. However, wireless connectivity comes at a cost of increased power usage, mainly due to the high energy consumption during data transmission. Unfortunately, battery-operated devices are unable to operate for ultra-long duration of time and are expected to be recharged or replaced once they run out of energy. This is not a simple task especially in the case of implanted devices such as pacemakers. Therefore, prolonging the network lifetime in BAN systems is one of the greatest challenges. In order to achieve this goal, BAN systems take advantage of low-power in-body and on-body/off-body wireless communication technologies. This paper compares some of the existing and emerging low-power communication protocols that can potentially be employed to support the rapid development and deployment of BAN systems.

Could in-home sensors surpass human observation of people with Parkinson’s at high risk of falling? An ethnographic study

Self-report underpins our understanding of falls among people with Parkinson’s (PwP) as they largely happen unwitnessed at home. In this qualitative study, we used an ethnographic approach to investigate which in-home sensors, in which locations, could gather useful data about fall risk. Over six weeks, we observed five independently mobile PwP at high risk of falling, at home. We made field notes about falls (prior events and concerns) and recorded movement with video, Kinect, and wearable sensors. The three women and two men (aged 71 to 79 years) having moderate or severe Parkinson’s were dependent on others and highly sedentary. We most commonly noted balance protection, loss, and restoration during chair transfers, walks across open spaces and through gaps, turns, steps up and down, and tasks in standing (all evident walking between chair and stairs, e.g.). Our unobtrusive sensors were acceptable to participants: they could detect instability during everyday activity at home and potentially guide intervention. Monitoring the route between chair and stairs is likely to give information without invading the privacy of people at high risk of falling, with very limited mobility, who spend most of the day in their sitting rooms.

Automatic devices for monitoring environmentally induced auto-oxidative degradation of artistic materials in conservation sites

This paper describes an automatic device for in situ and continuous monitoring of the ageing process occurring in natural and synthetic resins widely used in art and in the conservation and restoration of cultural artefacts. The results of tests carried out under accelerated ageing conditions are also presented. This easy-to-assemble palm-top device, essentially consists of oscillators based on quartz crystal resonators coated with films of the organic materials whose response to environmental stress is to be addressed. The device contains a microcontroller which selects at pre-defined time intervals the oscillators and records and stores their oscillation frequency. The ageing of the coatings, caused by the environmental stress and resulting in a shift in the oscillation frequency of the modified crystals, can be straightforwardly monitored in this way. The kinetics of this process reflects the level of risk damage associated with a specific microenvironment. In this case, natural and artificial resins, broadly employed in art and restoration of artistic and archaeological artefacts (dammar and Paraloid B72), were applied onto the crystals. The environmental stress was represented by visible and UV radiation, since the chosen materials are known to be photochemically active, to different extents. In the case of dammar, the results obtained are consistent with previous data obtained using a bench-top equipment by impedance analysis through discrete measurements and confirm that the ageing of this material is reflected in the gravimetric response of the modified quartz crystals. As for Paraloid B72, the outcome of the assays indicates that the resin is resistant to visible light, but is very sensitive to UV irradiation. The use of a continuous monitoring system, apart from being obviously more practical, is essential to identify short-term (i.e. reversible) events, like water vapour adsorption/desorption processes, and to highlight ageing trends or sudden changes of such trends. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Solar Energy assessment based on weather station data for direct site monitoring in Indonesia

This thesis evaluates different sites for a weather measurement system and a suitable PV- simulation for University of Surabaya (UBAYA) in Indonesia/Java. The weather station is able to monitor all common weather phenomena including solar insolation. It is planned to use the data for scientific and educational purposes in the renewable energy studies. During evaluation and installation it falls into place that official specifications from global meteorological organizations could not be meet for some sensors caused by the conditions of UBAYA campus. After arranging the hardware the weather at the site was monitored for period of time. A comparison with different official sources from ground based and satellite bases measurements showed differences in wind and solar radiation. In some cases the monthly average solar insolation was deviating 42 % for satellite-based measurements. For the ground based it was less than 10 %. The average wind speed has a difference of 33 % compared to a source, which evaluated the wind power in Surabaya. The wind direction shows instabilities towards east compared with data from local weather station at the airport. PSET has the chance to get some investments to investigate photovoltaic on there own roof. With several simulations a suitable roof direction and the yearly and monthly outputs are shown. With a 7.7 kWpeak PV installation with the latest crystalline technology on the market 8.82 MWh/year could be achieved with weather data from 2012. Thin film technology could increase the value up to 9.13 MWh/year. However, the roofs have enough area to install PV. Finally the low price of electricity in Indonesia makes it not worth to feed in the energy into the public grid.

Insuring cleaner oceans: the economics of oil pollution prevention

The current system of controlling oil spills involves a complex relationship of international, federal and state law, which has not proven to be very effective. The multiple layers of regulation often leave shipowners unsure of the laws facing them. Furthemore, nations have had difficulty enforcing these legal requirements. This thesis deals with the role marine insurance can play within the existing system of legislation to provide a strong preventative influence that is simple and cost-effective to enforce. In principle, insurance has two ways of enforcing higher safety standards and limiting the risk of an accident occurring. The first is through the use of insurance premiums that are based on the level of care taken by the insured. This means that a person engaging in riskier behavior faces a higher insurance premium, because their actions increase the probability of an accident occurring. The second method, available to the insurer, is collectively known as cancellation provisions or underwriting clauses. These are clauses written into an insurance contract that invalidates the agreement when certain conditions are not met by the insured The problem has been that obtaining information about the behavior of an insured party requires monitoring and that incurs a cost to the insurer. The application of these principles proves to be a more complicated matter. The modern marine insurance industry is a complicated system of multiple contracts, through different insurers, that covers the many facets of oil transportation. Their business practices have resulted in policy packages that cross the neat bounds of individual, specific insurance coverage. This paper shows that insurance can improve safety standards in three general areas -crew training, hull and equipment construction and maintenance, and routing schemes and exclusionary zones. With crew, hull and equipment, underwriting clauses can be used to ensure that minimum standards are met by the insured. Premiums can then be structured to reflect the additional care taken by the insured above and beyond these minimum standards. Routing schemes are traffic flow systems applied to congested waterways, such as the entrance to New York harbor. Using natural obstacles or manmade dividers, ships are separated into two lanes of opposing traffic, similar to a road. Exclusionary zones are marine areas designated off limits to tanker traffic either because of a sensitive ecosystem or because local knowledge is required of the region to ensure safe navigation. Underwriting clauses can be used to nullify an insurance contract when a tanker is not in compliance with established exclusionary zones or routing schemes.