The global-scale impacts of climate change: the QUEST-GSI project

This paper introduces the special issue of Climatic Change on the QUEST-GSI project, a global-scale multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts of climate change. The project used multiple climate models to characterise plausible climate futures with consistent baseline climate and socio-economic data and consistent assumptions, together with a suite of global-scale sectoral impacts models. It estimated impacts across sectors under specific SRES emissions scenarios, and also constructed functions relating impact to change in global mean surface temperature. This paper summarises the objectives of the project and its overall methodology, outlines how the project approach has been used in subsequent policy-relevant assessments of future climate change under different emissions futures, and summarises the general lessons learnt in the project about model validation and the presentation of multi-sector, multi-region impact assessments and their associated uncertainties to different audiences.

Equity-focused health impact assessment: a tool to assist policy makers in addressing health inequalities.

In Australasia (Australia and New Zealand) the use of health impact assessment (HIA) as a tool for improved policy development is comparatively new. The public health workforce do not routinely assess the potential health and equity impacts of proposed policies or programs. The Australasian Collaboration for Health Equity Impact Assessment was funded to develop a strategic framework for equity-focused HIA (EFHIA) with the intent of strengthening the ways in which equity is addressed in each step of HIA. The collaboration developed a draft framework for EFHIA that mirrored, but modified the commonly accepted steps of HIA; tested the draft framework in six different health service delivery settings; analysed the feedback about application of the draft EFHIA framework and modified it accordingly. The strategic framework shows promise in providing a systematic process for identifying potential differential health impacts and assessing the extent to which these are avoidable and unfair. This paper presents the EFHIA framework and discusses some of the issues that arose in the case study sites undertaking equity-focused HIA.

Conflict resolution and policy making mediation in the Mekong River Basin

The Mekong River serves China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam covering an area of approximately 795, 000 square kilometres and the Mekong River basin is a delicate eco-system rich in natural resources and bio-diversity. Competing demands for increasingly scarce supplies of water, the reciprocal impacts of land and water uses and inadequate governance arrangements have given rise to conflicts that has to be resolved by policy making to facilitate a process, whereby the main principles adopted in the Mekong River Agreement can be implemented.

Modelling income group differences in the health and economic impacts of targeted food taxes and subsidies

Objective : To examine the effects, by income group, of targeted food taxes and subsidies on nutrition, health and expenditure in the UK.

Methods : A model based on consumption data and demand elasticity was constructed to predict the effects of four food taxation-subsidy regimens. Resulting changes in demand, expenditure, nutrition, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer mortality were estimated.

Data : Expenditure data were taken from the Expenditure and Food Survey; estimates of price elasticities of demand for food were taken from a report based on the National Food Survey 1988–2000. Estimates of effect on CVD and cancer mortality of changing fat, salt, fruit and vegetable intake were taken from previous meta-analyses.

Results : (i) Taxing principal sources of dietary saturated fat is unlikely to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) or cancer mortality. (ii) Taxing ‘less healthy’ foods (defined by the WXYfm nutrient profiling model) could increase CVD and cancer deaths by 35–1300 yearly. (iii) Taxing ‘less healthy’ foods and subsidising fruits and vegetables by 17.5% could avert up to 2900 CVD and cancer deaths yearly. (iv) Taxing ‘less healthy’ foods and using all tax revenue to subsidize fruits and vegetables could avert up to 6400 CVD and cancer deaths yearly. Few obesity-related CVD deaths are averted by any of the regimens. All four regimens would be economically regressive and positive health effects will not necessarily be greater in lower-income groups where the need for dietary improvement is higher.

Conclusions : A targeted food tax combined with the appropriate subsidy on fruits and vegetables could reduce deaths from CVD and cancer.

Does monetary policy matter in a less developed economy? Evidence from Bangladesh

This paper explores the role of monetary policy in the context of a less developed economy. Monetary transmission mechanisms in less developed economies can be quite different from an industrialized economy, as unlike industrialized countries, these economies are characterized by the small size of organized financial markets, limited substitutability between money and other assets and weak fiscal and monetary institutions. We utilize the Structural VAR approach to analyze the monetary transmission process and impacts of monetary policy on different macro variables in Bangladesh. Monetary policy shocks are identified using non-recursive contemporaneous restrictions, which are based on the Central Bank's reaction function and the structure of the economy. We found strong evidence for the interest rate channel of monetary policy in Bangladesh. Our findings indicate that monetary policy shocks are important sources of fluctuations in the rate of interest, output and prices. Expansionary monetary policies are found to be harmful for achieving price stability in Bangladesh, as they not only increase the prices permanently, but also make the price level more volatile. We also found the evidence of a long lasting effect of monetary policy on output, which suggests that contractionary policy measures may create sustained recession in Bangladesh.

Australian dental policy reform and the use of dental therapists and hygienists

Oral diseases including dental caries and periodontal disease are among the most prevalent and costly diseases in Australia today. Around 5.4% of Australia’s health dollar is spent on dental services totalling around $2.6 billion, 84% of which are delivered through the private sector (AIHW 2001). The other 16% is spent providing public sector services in varied and inadequate ways. While disease rates among school children have declined significantly in the past 20 years the gains made among children are not flowing on to adult dentitions and our aging population will place increasing demands on an inadequate system into the future (AHMAC 2001). Around 50% of adults do not received regular care and this has implications for widening health inequalities as the greatest burden falls on lower income groups (AIHW DSRU 2001). The National Competition Policy agenda has initiated, Australia-wide, reviews of dental legislation applying to delivery of services by dentists, dental specialists, dental therapists and hygienists and dental technicians and prosthetists. The review of the Victorian Dentists Act 1972, was completed first in 1999, followed by the other Australian states with Queensland, the ACT and the Northern Territory still developing legislation. One of the objectives of the new Victorian Act is to ‘…promote access to dental care’. This study has grown out of the need to know more about how dental therapists and hygienists might be utilised to achieve this and the legislative frameworks that could enable such roles. This study used qualitative methods to explore dental health policy making associated with strategies that may increase access to dental care using dental therapists and hygienists. The study used a multiple case study design to critically examine the dental policy development process around the Review of the Dentists Act 1972 in Victoria; to assess legislative and regulatory dental policy reforms in other states in Australia and to conduct a comparative analysis of dental health policy as it relates to dental auxiliary practice internationally. Data collection has involved (I) semi-structured interviews with key participants and stakeholders in the policy development processes in Victoria, interstate and overseas, and (ii) analysis of documentary data sources. The study has taken a grounded theory approach whereby theoretical issues that emerged from the Victorian case study were further developed and challenged in the subsequent interstate and international case studies. A component of this study has required the development of indicators in regulatory models for dental hygienists and therapists that will increase access to dental care for the community. These indicators have been used to analyse regulation reform and the likely impacts in each setting. Despite evidence of need, evidence of the effectiveness and efficiency of dental therapists and hygienists, and the National Competition Policy agenda of increasing efficiency, the legislation reviews have mostly produces only minor changes. Results show that almost all Australian states have regulated dental therapists and hygienists in more prescriptive ways than they do dentists. The study has found that dental policy making is still dominated by the views of private practice dentists under elitist models that largely protect dentist authority, autonomy and sovereignty. The influence of dentist professional dominance has meant that governments have been reluctant to make sweeping changes. The study has demonstrated alternative models of regulation for dental therapists and hygienists, which would allow wider utilisation of their skills, more effective use of public sector funding, increased access to services and a grater focus on preventive care. In the light of theses outcomes, there is a need to continue to advocate for changes that will increase the public health focus of oral health care.

Global education policy directives : impact on teachers from the north and south

Education policies from international organisations such as the World Bank and OECD are restructuring education to promote a utilitarian vision of education. By examining the experiences and opinions of teachers from countries representing north-south global regions, it is possible to identify the social and political implications of education reform as it impacts on teachers as not only practitioners, but also as social and political agents. As global communities are more inexorably linked through global, macro policies, an outcome of this trend is a growing political and social divide between the global north and south. The paper aims to identify and discuss the significant concerns of teachers from the global north and south in relation to education reform.

Prioritizing policy interventions to improve diets? Will it work, can it happen, will it do harm?

Policies from non-health sectors have considerable impacts on the food environment and in turn on population nutrition. Health impact assessment (HIA) methods have been developed to identify the potential health effects of non-health policies; however, they are underused both within and outside the health sector. HIA and other assessment methods and tools can be used more extensively in health promotion to assist with the identification of the best policy options to pursue to improve and protect health. A participatory process is presented in this paper which combines HIAs with feasibility and effectiveness assessments. The intention is to enable health promoters to more accurately identify which policy change options would be most likely to improve diets, considering both impact and likelihood of implementation. The process was successfully used in Fiji and Tonga and provided a more systematic way of understanding which policy interventions showed the most promise.

Measuring public infrastructure construction impacts on economic growth

The results identify the long-run equilibrium relationships among economic variables in Australia. This study can provide policy makers with information on a one standard error shock to each variable and insights into what percentages of the forecast error variance of a variable are explained by the innovations of each variable.

Impacts of monetary policies on housing affordability in Australia

Housing affordability has become a major policy issue in many countries across the world since the rapid inflation of house prices. This paper empirically investigates how monetary policies affect housing affordability in Australia from 1998 to 2009. Three primary variables associated with the housing sector and monetary policy, which are money supply, interest rates and house prices, are studied for all eight capital cities in Australia in this research. Shocks of such variables are identified by a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with restrictions that are consistent with economic theoretical framework. Based upon the analysis using the structural decomposition of impulse response on quarterly data, it can be discovered that the monetary policy plays an active role in housing affordability via adjustments of money supply and interest rates during the observed period in Australia. The empirical results from this research may be used for decision makers to determine money supply and interest rates from the perspective of housing affordability.

New directions in biodiversity policy and governance? : a critique of Victoria's land and biodiversity white paper

The overall condition of biodiversity in many parts of Australia is poor and declining, despite the establishment of national parks and other reserves, and the adoption of conservation activities on private land. The impacts of climate change add further challenges to sustaining biodiversity. In response to these issues, in December 2009, the State Government of Victoria released a major policy statement that aimed to provide the framework and directions to secure the health of Victoria's biodiversity and associated land and water resources over the next 50 years. Given Victoria's reputation for environmental policy reform and innovation, the question arises as to whether the Victorian approach will provide a model for other Australian jurisdictions to adopt or adapt. Drawing on insights from environmental policy, discourse theory, and ecological theory, this article provides a critique of Victoria's approach, focusing on the way in which biodiversity is conceptualised and governed.

Singular influence : mapping the ascent of Daisy M. Bates in popular understanding and Indigenous policy

Daisy M. Bates’s influence on Indigenous affairs has often been attributed to her once romantic legend as ‘the saviour of the Aborigines’, obscuring the impact of the powerful news media position that she commanded for decades. The ideas advanced by the news media through its reports both by and about Bates exerted a strong influence on public understanding and official policies that were devastating for Indigenous Australians and have had lasting impacts. This paper draws on Bourdieu’s tradition of field-based research to propose that Bates’s ‘singular influence’ was formed through the accumulation of ‘symbolic capital’ within and across the fields of journalism, government, Indigenous societies, and anthropology, and that it operated to reinforce and legitimate the media’s representations of Indigenous people and issues as well as government policies.

Climate change impacts and adaptation in Bangladesh : an agent-based approach

Bangladesh exemplifies the complex challenges facing densely populated coastal regions. The
pressures on the country are immense: around 145 million people live within an area of just 145,000 sq-km at
the confluence of three major river systems: the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna. While progress
has been made, poverty remains widespread, with around 39% of children under five malnourished. Most of
its land-mass lies below 10m above sea level with considerable areas at sea level, leading to frequent and
prolonged flooding during the monsoons. Sea level rise is leading to more flooding as storm surges rise off
higher sea levels, pushing further inland. Higher sea levels also result in salt-water intrusion into freshwater
coastal aquifers and estuaries, contaminating drinking water and farmland. Warmer ocean waters are also
expected to lead to an increase in the intensity of tropical storms.
Bangladesh depends on the South Asian summer monsoon for most of its rainfall which is expected to
increase, leading to more flooding. Climate scientists are also concerned about the stability of monsoon and
the potential for it to undergo a nonlinear phase shift to a drier regime. Bangladesh faces an additional
hydrological challenge in that the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers both rise in the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau
region, where glaciers are melting rapidly. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
concluded that rapid melting is expected to increase river flows until around the late-2030s, by which time
the glaciers are expected to have shrunk from their 1995 extent of 500,000 sq-km to an expected 100,000 sqkm.
After the 2030s, river flows could drop dramatically, turning the great glacier-fed rivers of Asia into
seasonal monsoon-fed rivers. The IPCC concluded that as a result, water shortages in Asia could affect more
than a billion people by the 2050s. Over the same period, crop yields are expected to decline by up to 30% in
South Asia due to a combination of drought and crop heat stress. Bangladesh is therefore likely to face
substantial challenges in the coming decades.
In order to adequately understand the complex, dynamic, spatial and nonlinear challenges facing Bangladesh,
an integrated model of the system is required. An agent-based model (ABM) permits the dynamic
interactions of the economic, social, political, geographic, environmental and epidemiological dimensions of
climate change impacts and adaptation policies to be integrated via a modular approach. Integrating these
dimensions, including nonlinear threshold events such as mass migrations, or the outbreak of conflicts or
epidemics, is possible to a far greater degree with an ABM than with most other approaches.
We are developing a prototype ABM, implemented in Netlogo, to examine the dynamic impacts on poverty,
migration, mortality and conflict from climate change in Bangladesh from 2001 to 2100. The model employs
GIS and sub-district level census and economic data and a coarse-graining methodology to allow model
statistics to be generated on a national scale from local dynamic interactions. This approach allows a more
realistic treatment of distributed spatial events and heterogeneity across the country. The aim is not to
generate precise predictions of Bangladesh’s evolution, but to develop a framework that can be used for
integrated scenario exploration. This paper represents an initial report on progress on this project. So far the
prototype model has demonstrated the desirability and feasibility of integrating the different dimensions of
the complex adaptive system and, once completed, is intended to be used as the basis for a more detailed
policy-oriented model.

The role of policy in improving diets : experiences from the Pacific obesity prevention in communities food policy project

There is global interest in using multisectoral policy approaches to improve diets, and reduce obesity and non-communicable disease. However, there has been ad hoc implementation, which in some sectors such as the economic sector has been very limited, because of the lack of quality evidence on potential costs and impacts, and the inherent challenges associated with cross-sectoral policy development and implementation. The Pacific Obesity Prevention in Communities food policy project aimed to inform relevant policy development and implementation in Pacific Island countries. The project developed an innovative participatory approach to identifying and assessing potential policy options in terms of their effectiveness and feasibility. It also used policy analysis methodology to assess three policy initiatives to reduce fatty meat availability and four soft drink taxes in the region, in order to identify strategies for supporting effective policy implementation.