A fiber Bragg grating sensor system for train axle counting

Railway signaling facilitates two main functions, namely, train detection and train control, in order to maintain safe separations among the trains. Track circuits are the most commonly used train detection means with the simple open/close circuit principles; and subsequent adoption of axle counters further allows the detection of trains under adverse track conditions. However, with electrification and power electronics traction drive systems, aggravated by the electromagnetic interference in the vicinity of the signaling system, railway engineers often find unstable or even faulty operations of track circuits and axle counting systems, which inevitably jeopardizes the safe operation of trains. A new means of train detection, which is completely free from electromagnetic interference, is therefore required for the modern railway signaling system. This paper presents a novel optical fiber sensor signaling system. The sensor operation, field setup, axle detection solution set, and test results of an installation in a trial system on a busy suburban railway line are given.

The Eat Smart Study : a randomised controlled trial of a reduced carbohydrate versus a low fat diet for weight loss in obese adolescents

Background Despite the recognition of obesity in young people as a key health issue, there is limited evidence to inform health professionals regarding the most appropriate treatment options. The Eat Smart study aims to contribute to the knowledge base of effective dietary strategies for the clinical management of the obese adolescent and examine the cardiometablic effects of a reduced carbohydrate diet versus a low fat diet. Methods and design Eat Smart is a randomised controlled trial and aims to recruit 100 adolescents over a 2½ year period. Families will be invited to participate following referral by their health professional who has recommended weight management. Participants will be overweight as defined by a body mass index (BMI) greater than the 90th percentile, using CDC 2000 growth charts. An accredited 6-week psychological life skills program ‘FRIENDS for Life’, which is designed to provide behaviour change and coping skills will be undertaken prior to volunteers being randomised to group. The intervention arms include a structured reduced carbohydrate or a structured low fat dietary program based on an individualised energy prescription. The intervention will involve a series of dietetic appointments over 24 weeks. The control group will commence the dietary program of their choice after a 12 week period. Outcome measures will be assessed at baseline, week 12 and week 24. The primary outcome measure will be change in BMI z-score. A range of secondary outcome measures including body composition, lipid fractions, inflammatory markers, social and psychological measures will be measured. Discussion The chronic and difficult nature of treating the obese adolescent is increasingly recognised by clinicians and has highlighted the need for research aimed at providing effective intervention strategies, particularly for use in the tertiary setting. A structured reduced carbohydrate approach may provide a dietary pattern that some families will find more sustainable and effective than the conventional low fat dietary approach currently advocated. This study aims to investigate the acceptability and effectiveness of a structured reduced dietary carbohydrate intervention and will compare the outcomes of this approach with a structured low fat eating plan. Trial Registration: The protocol for this study is registered with the International Clinical Trials Registry (ISRCTN49438757).

Subjective blur limits for higher order aberrations

Purpose: We compared subjective blur limits for defocus and the higher-order aberrations of coma, trefoil, and spherical aberration. ---------- Methods: Spherical aberration was presented in both Zernike and Seidel forms. Black letter targets (0.1, 0.35, and 0.6 logMAR) on white backgrounds were blurred using an adaptive optics system for six subjects under cycloplegia with 5 mm artificial pupils. Three blur criteria of just noticeable, just troublesome, and just objectionable were used.---------- Results: When expressed as wave aberration coefficients, the just noticeable blur limits for coma and trefoil were similar to those for defocus, whereas the just noticeable limits for Zernike spherical aberration and Seidel spherical aberration (the latter given as an “rms equivalent”) were considerably smaller and larger, respectively, than defocus limits.---------- Conclusions: Blur limits increased more quickly for the higher order aberrations than for defocus as the criterion changed from just noticeable to just troublesome and then to just objectionable.

Case management educational intervention with public health nurses : cluster randomized controlled trial

Aim: This paper is a report of a study conducted to determine the effectiveness of a community case management collaborative education intervention in terms of satisfaction, learning and performance among public health nurses. Background: Previous evaluation studies of case management continuing professional education often failed to demonstrate effectiveness across a range of outcomes and had methodological weaknesses such as small convenience samples and lack of control groups. Method: A cluster randomised controlled trial was conducted between September 2005 and February 2006. Ten health centre clusters (5 control, 5 intervention) recruited 163 public health nurses in Taiwan to the trial. After pre-tests for baseline measurements, public health nurses in intervention centres received an educational intervention of four half-day workshops. Post-tests for both groups were conducted after the intervention. Two-way repeated measures analysis of variance was performed to evaluate the effect of the intervention on target outcomes. Results: A total of 161 participants completed the pre- and post-intervention measurements. This was almost a 99% response rate. Results revealed that 97% of those in the experimental group were satisfied with the programme. There were statistically significant differences between the two groups in knowledge (p = 0.001), confidence in case management skills (p = 0.001), preparedness for case manager role activities (p = 0.001), self-reported frequency in using skills (p = 0.001), and role activities (p = 0.004). Conclusion: Collaboration between academic and clinical nurses is an effective strategy to prepare nurses for rapidly-changing roles.

Multiple Health Behavior Changes and Co-variation in a Telephone Counseling Trial

Background Delivering effective multiple health behavior interventions to large numbers of adults with chronic conditions via primary care settings is a public health priority. Purpose Within a 12-month, telephone-delivered diet and physical activity intervention with multiple behavioral outcomes, we examined the extent and co-variation of multiple health behavior change. Methods A cluster-randomized trial with 434 patients with type 2 diabetes or hypertension were recruited from 10 general practices, which were randomized to receive telephone counseling or usual care. Results Those receiving telephone counseling were significantly more likely than those in usual care to make greater reductions in multiple behaviors after adjusting for baseline risk behaviors (OR 2.42; 95%CI 1.43, 4.11). Controlling for baseline risk and group allocation, making changes to either physical activity, fat, vegetable, or fiber intake was associated with making significantly more improvements in other behaviors. Conclusions For patients with chronic conditions, telephone counseling can significantly improve multiple health behaviors, with behavioral changes tending to co-vary.

Analysis of cardiac and epileptic signals using higher order spectra

The theory of nonlinear dyamic systems provides some new methods to handle complex systems. Chaos theory offers new concepts, algorithms and methods for processing, enhancing and analyzing the measured signals. In recent years, researchers are applying the concepts from this theory to bio-signal analysis. In this work, the complex dynamics of the bio-signals such as electrocardiogram (ECG) and electroencephalogram (EEG) are analyzed using the tools of nonlinear systems theory. In the modern industrialized countries every year several hundred thousands of people die due to sudden cardiac death. The Electrocardiogram (ECG) is an important biosignal representing the sum total of millions of cardiac cell depolarization potentials. It contains important insight into the state of health and nature of the disease afflicting the heart. Heart rate variability (HRV) refers to the regulation of the sinoatrial node, the natural pacemaker of the heart by the sympathetic and parasympathetic branches of the autonomic nervous system. Heart rate variability analysis is an important tool to observe the heart's ability to respond to normal regulatory impulses that affect its rhythm. A computerbased intelligent system for analysis of cardiac states is very useful in diagnostics and disease management. Like many bio-signals, HRV signals are non-linear in nature. Higher order spectral analysis (HOS) is known to be a good tool for the analysis of non-linear systems and provides good noise immunity. In this work, we studied the HOS of the HRV signals of normal heartbeat and four classes of arrhythmia. This thesis presents some general characteristics for each of these classes of HRV signals in the bispectrum and bicoherence plots. Several features were extracted from the HOS and subjected an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) test. The results are very promising for cardiac arrhythmia classification with a number of features yielding a p-value < 0.02 in the ANOVA test. An automated intelligent system for the identification of cardiac health is very useful in healthcare technology. In this work, seven features were extracted from the heart rate signals using HOS and fed to a support vector machine (SVM) for classification. The performance evaluation protocol in this thesis uses 330 subjects consisting of five different kinds of cardiac disease conditions. The classifier achieved a sensitivity of 90% and a specificity of 89%. This system is ready to run on larger data sets. In EEG analysis, the search for hidden information for identification of seizures has a long history. Epilepsy is a pathological condition characterized by spontaneous and unforeseeable occurrence of seizures, during which the perception or behavior of patients is disturbed. An automatic early detection of the seizure onsets would help the patients and observers to take appropriate precautions. Various methods have been proposed to predict the onset of seizures based on EEG recordings. The use of nonlinear features motivated by the higher order spectra (HOS) has been reported to be a promising approach to differentiate between normal, background (pre-ictal) and epileptic EEG signals. In this work, these features are used to train both a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) classifier and a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier. Results show that the classifiers were able to achieve 93.11% and 92.67% classification accuracy, respectively, with selected HOS based features. About 2 hours of EEG recordings from 10 patients were used in this study. This thesis introduces unique bispectrum and bicoherence plots for various cardiac conditions and for normal, background and epileptic EEG signals. These plots reveal distinct patterns. The patterns are useful for visual interpretation by those without a deep understanding of spectral analysis such as medical practitioners. It includes original contributions in extracting features from HRV and EEG signals using HOS and entropy, in analyzing the statistical properties of such features on real data and in automated classification using these features with GMM and SVM classifiers.

Striving to realise the European idea : judging the news media’s accounts of how the Berlin Wall gave impetus to a new order across Europe

The 1990 European Community was taken by surprise, by the urgency of demands from the newly-elected Eastern European governments to become member countries. Those governments were honouring the mass social movement of the streets, the year before, demanding free elections and a liberal economic system associated with “Europe”. The mass movement had actually been accompanied by much activity within institutional politics, in Western Europe, the former “satellite” states, the Soviet Union and the United States, to set up new structures – with German reunification and an expanded EC as the centre-piece. This paper draws on the writer’s doctoral dissertation on mass media in the collapse of the Eastern bloc, focused on the Berlin Wall – documenting both public protests and institutional negotiations. For example the writer as a correspondent in Europe from that time, recounts interventions of the German Chancellor, Helmut Kohl, at a European summit in Paris nine days after the “Wall”, and separate negotiations with the French President, Francois Mitterrand -- on the reunification, and EU monetary union after 1992. Through such processes, the “European idea” would receive fresh impetus, though the EU which eventuated, came with many altered expectations. It is argued here that as a result of the shock of 1989, a “social” Europe can be seen emerging, as a shared experience of daily life -- especially among people born during the last two decades of European consolidation. The paper draws on the author’s major research, in four parts: (1) Field observation from the strategic vantage point of a news correspondent. This includes a treatment of evidence at the time, of the wishes and intentions of the mass public (including the unexpected drive to join the European Community), and those of governments, (e.g. thoughts of a “Tienanmen Square solution” in East Berlin, versus the non-intervention policies of the Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev). (2) A review of coverage of the crisis of 1989 by major news media outlets, treated as a history of the process. (3) As a comparison, and a test of accuracy and analysis; a review of conventional histories of the crisis appearing a decade later.(4) A further review, and test, provided by journalists responsible for the coverage of the time, as reflection on practice – obtained from semi-structured interviews.

The effects of muscle fatigue on knee function during landing

The human knee acts as a sophisticated shock absorber during landing movements. The ability of the knee to perform this function in the real world is remarkable given that the context of the landing movement may vary widely between performances. For this reason, humans must be capable of rapidly adjusting the mechanical properties of the knee under impact load in order to satisfy many competing demands. However, the processes involved in regulating these properties in response to changing constraints remain poorly understood. In particular, the effects of muscle fatigue on knee function during step landing are yet to be fully explored. Fatigue of the knee muscles is significant for 2 reasons. First, it is thought to have detrimental effects on the ability of the knee to act as a shock absorber and is considered a risk factor for knee injury. Second, fatigue of knee muscles provides a unique opportunity to examine the mechanisms by which healthy individuals alter knee function. A review of the literature revealed that the effect of fatigue on knee function during landing has been assessed by comparing pre and postfatigue measurements, with fatigue induced by a voluntary exercise protocol. The information is limited by inconsistent results with key measures, such as knee stiffness, showing varying results following fatigue, including increased stiffness, decreased stiffness or failure to detect any change in some experiments. Further consideration of the literature questions the validity of the models used to induce and measure fatigue, as well as the pre-post study design, which may explain the lack of consensus in the results. These limitations cast doubt on the usefulness of the available information and identify a need to investigate alternative approaches. Based on the results of this review, the aims of this thesis were to: • evaluate the methodological procedures used in validation of a fatigue model • investigate the adaptation and regulation of post-impact knee mechanics during repeated step landings • use this new information to test the effects of fatigue on knee function during a step-landing task. To address the aims of the thesis, 3 related experiments were conducted that collected kinetic, kinematic and electromyographic data from 3 separate samples of healthy male participants. The methodologies involved optoelectronic motion capture (VICON), isokinetic dynamometry (System3 Pro, BIODEX) and wireless surface electromyography (Zerowire, Aurion, Italy). Fatigue indicators and knee function measures used in each experiment were derived from the data. Study 1 compared the validity and reliability of repetitive stepping and isokinetic contractions with respect to fatigue of the quadriceps and hamstrings. Fifteen participants performed 50 repetitions of each exercise twice in randomised order, over 4 sessions. Sessions were separated by a minimum of 1 week’s rest, to ensure full recovery. Validity and reliability depended on a complex interaction between the exercise protocol, the fatigue indicator, the individual and the muscle of interest. Nevertheless, differences between exercise protocols indicated that stepping was less effective in eliciting valid and reliable changes in peak power and spectral compression, compared with isokinetic exercise. A key finding was that fatigue progressed in a biphasic pattern during both exercises. The point separating the 2 phases, known as the transition point, demonstrated superior between-test reliability during the isokinetic protocol, compared with stepping. However, a correction factor should be used to accurately apply this technique to the study of fatigue during landing. Study 2 examined alterations in knee function during repeated landings, with a different sample (N =12) performing 60 consecutive step landing trials. Each landing trial was separated by 1-minute rest periods. The results provided new information in relation to the pre-post study design in the context of detecting adjustments in knee function during landing. First, participants significantly increased or decreased pre-impact muscle activity or post-impact mechanics despite environmental and task constraints remaining unchanged. This is the 1st study to demonstrate this effect in healthy individuals without external feedback on performance. Second, single-subject analysis was more effective in detecting alterations in knee function compared to group-level analysis. Finally, repeated landing trials did not reduce inter-trial variability of knee function in some participants, contrary to assumptions underpinning previous studies. The results of studies 1 and 2 were used to modify the design of Study 3 relative to previous research. These alterations included a modified isokinetic fatigue protocol, multiple pre-fatigue measurements and singlesubject analysis to detect fatigue-related changes in knee function. The study design incorporated new analytical approaches to investigate fatiguerelated alterations in knee function during landing. Participants (N = 16) were measured during multiple pre-fatigue baseline trial blocks prior to the fatigue model. A final block of landing trials was recorded once the participant met the operational fatigue definition that was identified in Study 1. The analysis revealed that the effects of fatigue in this context are heavily dependent on the compensatory response of the individual. A continuum of responses was observed within the sample for each knee function measure. Overall, preimpact preparation and post-impact mechanics of the knee were altered with highly individualised patterns. Moreover, participants used a range of active or passive pre-impact strategies to adapt post-impact mechanics in response to quadriceps fatigue. The unique patterns identified in the data represented an optimisation of knee function based on priorities of the individual. The findings of these studies explain the lack of consensus within the literature regarding the effects of fatigue on knee function during landing. First, functional fatigue protocols lack validity in inducing fatigue-related changes in mechanical output and spectral compression of surface electromyography (sEMG) signals, compared with isokinetic exercise. Second, fatigue-related changes in knee function during landing are confounded by inter-individual variation, which limits the sensitivity of group-level analysis. By addressing these limitations, the 3rd study demonstrated the efficacies of new experimental and analytical approaches to observe fatigue-related alterations in knee function during landing. Consequently, this thesis provides new perspectives into the effects of fatigue in knee function during landing. In conclusion: • The effects of fatigue on knee function during landing depend on the response of the individual, with considerable variation present between study participants, despite similar physical characteristics. • In healthy males, adaptation of pre-impact muscle activity and postimpact knee mechanics is unique to the individual and reflects their own optimisation of demands such as energy expenditure, joint stability, sensory information and loading of knee structures. • The results of these studies should guide future exploration of adaptations in knee function to fatigue. However, research in this area should continue with reduced emphasis on the directional response of the population and a greater focus on individual adaptations of knee function.

The effect of red blood cell orientation on the electrical impedance of pulsatile blood with implications for impedance cardiography

Impedance cardiography is an application of bioimpedance analysis primarily used in a research setting to determine cardiac output. It is a non invasive technique that measures the change in the impedance of the thorax which is attributed to the ejection of a volume of blood from the heart. The cardiac output is calculated from the measured impedance using the parallel conductor theory and a constant value for the resistivity of blood. However, the resistivity of blood has been shown to be velocity dependent due to changes in the orientation of red blood cells induced by changing shear forces during flow. The overall goal of this thesis was to study the effect that flow deviations have on the electrical impedance of blood, both experimentally and theoretically, and to apply the results to a clinical setting. The resistivity of stationary blood is isotropic as the red blood cells are randomly orientated due to Brownian motion. In the case of blood flowing through rigid tubes, the resistivity is anisotropic due to the biconcave discoidal shape and orientation of the cells. The generation of shear forces across the width of the tube during flow causes the cells to align with the minimal cross sectional area facing the direction of flow. This is in order to minimise the shear stress experienced by the cells. This in turn results in a larger cross sectional area of plasma and a reduction in the resistivity of the blood as the flow increases. Understanding the contribution of this effect on the thoracic impedance change is a vital step in achieving clinical acceptance of impedance cardiography. Published literature investigates the resistivity variations for constant blood flow. In this case, the shear forces are constant and the impedance remains constant during flow at a magnitude which is less than that for stationary blood. The research presented in this thesis, however, investigates the variations in resistivity of blood during pulsataile flow through rigid tubes and the relationship between impedance, velocity and acceleration. Using rigid tubes isolates the impedance change to variations associated with changes in cell orientation only. The implications of red blood cell orientation changes for clinical impedance cardiography were also explored. This was achieved through measurement and analysis of the experimental impedance of pulsatile blood flowing through rigid tubes in a mock circulatory system. A novel theoretical model including cell orientation dynamics was developed for the impedance of pulsatile blood through rigid tubes. The impedance of flowing blood was theoretically calculated using analytical methods for flow through straight tubes and the numerical Lattice Boltzmann method for flow through complex geometries such as aortic valve stenosis. The result of the analytical theoretical model was compared to the experimental impedance measurements through rigid tubes. The impedance calculated for flow through a stenosis using the Lattice Boltzmann method provides results for comparison with impedance cardiography measurements collected as part of a pilot clinical trial to assess the suitability of using bioimpedance techniques to assess the presence of aortic stenosis. The experimental and theoretical impedance of blood was shown to inversely follow the blood velocity during pulsatile flow with a correlation of -0.72 and -0.74 respectively. The results for both the experimental and theoretical investigations demonstrate that the acceleration of the blood is an important factor in determining the impedance, in addition to the velocity. During acceleration, the relationship between impedance and velocity is linear (r2 = 0.98, experimental and r2 = 0.94, theoretical). The relationship between the impedance and velocity during the deceleration phase is characterised by a time decay constant, ô , ranging from 10 to 50 s. The high level of agreement between the experimental and theoretically modelled impedance demonstrates the accuracy of the model developed here. An increase in the haematocrit of the blood resulted in an increase in the magnitude of the impedance change due to changes in the orientation of red blood cells. The time decay constant was shown to decrease linearly with the haematocrit for both experimental and theoretical results, although the slope of this decrease was larger in the experimental case. The radius of the tube influences the experimental and theoretical impedance given the same velocity of flow. However, when the velocity was divided by the radius of the tube (labelled the reduced average velocity) the impedance response was the same for two experimental tubes with equivalent reduced average velocity but with different radii. The temperature of the blood was also shown to affect the impedance with the impedance decreasing as the temperature increased. These results are the first published for the impedance of pulsatile blood. The experimental impedance change measured orthogonal to the direction of flow is in the opposite direction to that measured in the direction of flow. These results indicate that the impedance of blood flowing through rigid cylindrical tubes is axisymmetric along the radius. This has not previously been verified experimentally. Time frequency analysis of the experimental results demonstrated that the measured impedance contains the same frequency components occuring at the same time point in the cycle as the velocity signal contains. This suggests that the impedance contains many of the fluctuations of the velocity signal. Application of a theoretical steady flow model to pulsatile flow presented here has verified that the steady flow model is not adequate in calculating the impedance of pulsatile blood flow. The success of the new theoretical model over the steady flow model demonstrates that the velocity profile is important in determining the impedance of pulsatile blood. The clinical application of the impedance of blood flow through a stenosis was theoretically modelled using the Lattice Boltzman method (LBM) for fluid flow through complex geometeries. The impedance of blood exiting a narrow orifice was calculated for varying degrees of stenosis. Clincial impedance cardiography measurements were also recorded for both aortic valvular stenosis patients (n = 4) and control subjects (n = 4) with structurally normal hearts. This pilot trial was used to corroborate the results of the LBM. Results from both investigations showed that the decay time constant for impedance has potential in the assessment of aortic valve stenosis. In the theoretically modelled case (LBM results), the decay time constant increased with an increase in the degree of stenosis. The clinical results also showed a statistically significant difference in time decay constant between control and test subjects (P = 0.03). The time decay constant calculated for test subjects (ô = 180 - 250 s) is consistently larger than that determined for control subjects (ô = 50 - 130 s). This difference is thought to be due to difference in the orientation response of the cells as blood flows through the stenosis. Such a non-invasive technique using the time decay constant for screening of aortic stenosis provides additional information to that currently given by impedance cardiography techniques and improves the value of the device to practitioners. However, the results still need to be verified in a larger study. While impedance cardiography has not been widely adopted clinically, it is research such as this that will enable future acceptance of the method.

Delivering value for money in the procurement of public sector major infrastructure : a new first-order decision making model

The significant challenge faced by government in demonstrating value for money in the delivery of major infrastructure resolves around estimating costs and benefits of alternative modes of procurement. Faced with this challenge, one approach is to focus on a dominant performance outcome visible on the opening day of the asset, as the means to select the procurement approach. In this case, value for money becomes a largely nominal concept and determined by selected procurement mode delivering, or not delivering, the selected performance outcome, and notwithstanding possible under delivery on other desirable performance outcomes, as well as possibly incurring excessive transaction costs. This paper proposes a mind-set change in this particular practice, to an approach in which the analysis commences with the conditions pertaining to the project and proceeds to deploy transaction cost and production cost theory to indicate a procurement approach that can claim superior value for money relative to other competing procurement modes. This approach to delivering value for money in relative terms is developed in a first-order procurement decision making model outlined in this paper. The model developed could be complementary to the Public Sector Comparator (PSC) in terms of cross validation and the model more readily lends itself to public dissemination. As a possible alternative to the PSC, the model could save time and money in preparation of project details to lesser extent than that required in the reference project and may send a stronger signal to the market that may encourage more innovation and competition.

Order and disorder in the structures of two crystal polymorphs of the adduct bis(quinolinium-2-carboxylate) DL-malic acid

The structures of two polymorphs of the anhydrous cocrystal adduct of bis(quinolinium-2-carboxylate) DL-malic acid, one triclinic the other monoclinic and disordered, have been determined at 200 K. Crystals of the triclinic polymorph 1 have space group P-1, with Z = 1 in a cell with dimensions a = 4.4854(4), b = 9.8914(7), c = 12.4670(8)Å, α = 79.671(5), β = 83.094(6), γ = 88.745(6)deg. Crystals of the monoclinic polymorph 2 have space group P21/c, with Z = 2 in a cell with dimensions a = 13.3640(4), b = 4.4237(12), c = 18.4182(5)Å, β = 100.782(3)deg. Both structures comprise centrosymmetric cyclic hydrogen-bonded quinolinic acid zwitterion dimers [graph set R2/2(10)] and 50% disordered malic acid molecules which lie across crystallographic inversion centres. However, the oxygen atoms of the malic acid carboxylic groups in 2 are 50% rotationally disordered whereas in 1 these are ordered. There are similar primary malic acid carboxyl O-H...quinaldic acid hydrogen-bonding chain interactions in each polymorph, extended into two-dimensional structures but in l this involves centrosymmetric cyclic head-to-head malic acid hydroxyl-carboxyl O-H...O interactions [graph set R2/2(10)] whereas in 2 the links are through single hydroxy-carboxyl hydrogen bonds.

Improving the performance of model-order selection criteria by partial-model selection search

The traditional searching method for model-order selection in linear regression is a nested full-parameters-set searching procedure over the desired orders, which we call full-model order selection. On the other hand, a method for model-selection searches for the best sub-model within each order. In this paper, we propose using the model-selection searching method for model-order selection, which we call partial-model order selection. We show by simulations that the proposed searching method gives better accuracies than the traditional one, especially for low signal-to-noise ratios over a wide range of model-order selection criteria (both information theoretic based and bootstrap-based). Also, we show that for some models the performance of the bootstrap-based criterion improves significantly by using the proposed partial-model selection searching method. Index Terms— Model order estimation, model selection, information theoretic criteria, bootstrap 1. INTRODUCTION Several model-order selection criteria can be applied to find the optimal order. Some of the more commonly used information theoretic-based procedures include Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) [1], corrected Akaike (AICc) [2], minimum description length (MDL) [3], normalized maximum likelihood (NML) [4], Hannan-Quinn criterion (HQC) [5], conditional model-order estimation (CME) [6], and the efficient detection criterion (EDC) [7]. From a practical point of view, it is difficult to decide which model order selection criterion to use. Many of them perform reasonably well when the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is high. The discrepancies in their performance, however, become more evident when the SNR is low. In those situations, the performance of the given technique is not only determined by the model structure (say a polynomial trend versus a Fourier series) but, more importantly, by the relative values of the parameters within the model. This makes the comparison between the model-order selection algorithms difficult as within the same model with a given order one could find an example for which one of the methods performs favourably well or fails [6, 8]. Our aim is to improve the performance of the model order selection criteria in cases where the SNR is low by considering a model-selection searching procedure that takes into account not only the full-model order search but also a partial model order search within the given model order. Understandably, the improvement in the performance of the model order estimation is at the expense of additional computational complexity.

Reference bias : presentation of extreme health states prior to EQ-VAS improves health-related quality of life scores. A randomised crossover trial.

Background: Clinical practice and clinical research has made a concerted effort to move beyond the use of clinical indicators alone and embrace patient focused care through the use of patient reported outcomes such as healthrelated quality of life. However, unless patients give consistent consideration to the health states that give meaning to measurement scales used to evaluate these constructs, longitudinal comparison of these measures may be invalid. This study aimed to investigate whether patients give consideration to a standard health state rating scale (EQ-VAS) and whether consideration of good and poor health state descriptors immediately changes their selfreport. Methods: A randomised crossover trial was implemented amongst hospitalised older adults (n = 151). Patients were asked to consider descriptions of extremely good (Description-A) and poor (Description-B) health states. The EQ-VAS was administered as a self-report at baseline, after the first descriptors (A or B), then again after the remaining descriptors (B or A respectively). At baseline patients were also asked if they had considered either EQVAS anchors. Results: Overall 106/151 (70%) participants changed their self-evaluation by ≥5 points on the 100 point VAS, with a mean (SD) change of +4.5 (12) points (p < 0.001). A total of 74/151 (49%) participants did not consider the best health VAS anchor, of the 77 who did 59 (77%) thought the good health descriptors were more extreme (better) then they had previously considered. Similarly 85/151 (66%) participants did not consider the worst health anchor of the 66 who did 63 (95%) thought the poor health descriptors were more extreme (worse) then they had previously considered. Conclusions: Health state self-reports may not be well considered. An immediate significant shift in response can be elicited by exposure to a mere description of an extreme health state despite no actual change in underlying health state occurring. Caution should be exercised in research and clinical settings when interpreting subjective patient reported outcomes that are dependent on brief anchors for meaning. Trial Registration: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (#ACTRN12607000606482) http://www.anzctr. org.au

Patient education to prevent falls among older hospital inpatients : a randomized controlled trial

Background Falls are a common adverse event during hospitalization of older adults, and few interventions have been shown to prevent then. Methods This study was a 3-group randomized trial to evaluate the efficacy of 2 forms of multimedia patient education compared with usual care for the prevention of in-hospital falls. Older hospital patients (n = 1206) admitted to a mixture of acute (orthopedic, respiratory, and medical) and subacute (geriatric and neurorehabilitation) hospital wards at 2 Australian hospitals were recruited between January 2008 and April 2009. The interventions were a multimedia patient education program based on the health-belief model combined with trained health professional follow-up (complete program), multi-media patient education materials alone (materials only), and usual care (control). Falls data were collected by blinded research assistants by reviewing hospital incident reports, hand searching medical records, and conducting weekly patient interviews. Results Rates of falls per 1000 patient-days did not differ significantly between groups (control, 9.27; materials only, 8.61; and complete program, 7.63). However, there was a significant interaction between the intervention and presence of cognitive impairment. Falls were less frequent among cognitively intact patients in the complete program group (4.01 per 1000 patient-days) than among cognitively intact patients in the materials-only group (8.18 per 1000 patient-days) (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.51; 95% confidence interval, 0.28-0.93]) and control group (8.72 per 1000 patient-days) (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.24-0.78). Conclusion Multimedia patient education with trained health professional follow-up reduced falls among patients with intact cognitive function admitted to a range of hospital wards.

Randomised controlled trial of an automated, interactive telephone intervention to improve type 2 diabetes self-management (Telephone-Linked Care Diabetes Project) : study protocol

Background: An estimated 285 million people worldwide have diabetes and its prevalence is predicted to increase to 439 million by 2030. For the year 2010, it is estimated that 3.96 million excess deaths in the age group 20-79 years are attributable to diabetes around the world. Self-management is recognised as an integral part of diabetes care. This paper describes the protocol of a randomised controlled trial of an automated interactive telephone system aiming to improve the uptake and maintenance of essential diabetes self-management behaviours. ---------- Methods/Design: A total of 340 individuals with type 2 diabetes will be randomised, either to the routine care arm, or to the intervention arm in which participants receive the Telephone-Linked Care (TLC) Diabetes program in addition to their routine care. The intervention requires the participants to telephone the TLC Diabetes phone system weekly for 6 months. They receive the study handbook and a glucose meter linked to a data uploading device. The TLC system consists of a computer with software designed to provide monitoring, tailored feedback and education on key aspects of diabetes self-management, based on answers voiced or entered during the current or previous conversations. Data collection is conducted at baseline (Time 1), 6-month follow-up (Time 2), and 12-month follow-up (Time 3). The primary outcomes are glycaemic control (HbA1c) and quality of life (Short Form-36 Health Survey version 2). Secondary outcomes include anthropometric measures, blood pressure, blood lipid profile, psychosocial measures as well as measures of diet, physical activity, blood glucose monitoring, foot care and medication taking. Information on utilisation of healthcare services including hospital admissions, medication use and costs is collected. An economic evaluation is also planned.---------- Discussion: Outcomes will provide evidence concerning the efficacy of a telephone-linked care intervention for self-management of diabetes. Furthermore, the study will provide insight into the potential for more widespread uptake of automated telehealth interventions, globally.