984 resultados para numerical prediction


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A mathematical model for long-term, three-dimensional shoreline evolution is developed. The combined effects of variations of sea level; wave refraction and diffraction; loss of sand by density currents during storms, by rip currents, and by wind; bluff erosion and berm accretion; effects of manmade structures such as long groin or navigational structures; and beach nourishment are all taken into account. A computer program is developed with various subroutines which permit modification as the state-of-the-art progresses. The program is applied to a test case at Holland Harbor, Michigan. (Author).

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Statistical tests of Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) signals are carried in order to verify statistical robustness of the previous studies using the Lattice Solid Model (MORA et al., 2002b). In each case 24 groups of samples with the same macroscopic parameters (tidal perturbation amplitude A, period T and tectonic loading rate k) but different particle arrangements are employed. Results of uni-axial compression experiments show that before the normalized time of catastrophic failure, the ensemble average LURR value rises significantly, in agreement with the observations of high LURR prior to the large earthquakes. In shearing tests, two parameters are found to control the correlation between earthquake occurrence and tidal stress. One is, A/(kT) controlling the phase shift between the peak seismicity rate and the peak amplitude of the perturbation stress. With an increase of this parameter, the phase shift is found to decrease. Another parameter, AT/k, controls the height of the probability density function (Pdf) of modeled seismicity. As this parameter increases, the Pdf becomes sharper and narrower, indicating a strong triggering. Statistical studies of LURR signals in shearing tests also suggest that except in strong triggering cases, where LURR cannot be calculated due to poor data in unloading cycles, the larger events are more likely to occur in higher LURR periods than the smaller ones, supporting the LURR hypothesis.

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The occurrence of chaotic instabilities is investigated in the swing motion of a dragline bucket during operation cycles. A dragline is a large, powerful, rotating multibody system utilised in the mining industry for removal of overburden. A simplified representative model of the dragline is developed in the form of a fundamental non-linear rotating multibody system with energy dissipation. An analytical predictive criterion for the onset of chaotic instability is then obtained in terms of critical system parameters using Melnikov's method. The model is shown to exhibit chaotic instability due to a harmonic slew torque for a range of amplitudes and frequencies. These chaotic instabilities could introduce irregularities into the motion of the dragline system, rendering the system difficult to control by the operator and/or would have undesirable effects on dragline productivity and fatigue lifetime. The sufficient analytical criterion for the onset of chaotic instability is shown to be a useful predictor of the phenomenon under steady and unsteady slewing conditions via comparisons with numerical results. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Numerical simulations of turbulent driven flow in a dense medium cyclone with magnetite medium have been conducted using Fluent. The predicted air core shape and diameter were found to be close to the experimental results measured by gamma ray tomography. It is possible that the Large eddy simulation (LES) turbulence model with Mixture multi-phase model can be used to predict the air/slurry interface accurately although the LES may need a finer grid. Multi-phase simulations (air/water/medium) are showing appropriate medium segregation effects but are over-predicting the level of segregation compared to that measured by gamma-ray tomography in particular with over prediction of medium concentrations near the wall. Further, investigated the accurate prediction of axial segregation of magnetite using the LES turbulence model together with the multi-phase mixture model and viscosity corrections according to the feed particle loading factor. Addition of lift forces and viscosity correction improved the predictions especially near the wall. Predicted density profiles are very close to gamma ray tomography data showing a clear density drop near the wall. The effect of size distribution of the magnetite has been fully studied. It is interesting to note that the ultra-fine magnetite sizes (i.e. 2 and 7 mu m) are distributed uniformly throughout the cyclone. As the size of magnetite increases, more segregation of magnetite occurs close to the wall. The cut-density (d(50)) of the magnetite segregation is 32 gm, which is expected with superfine magnetite feed size distribution. At higher feed densities the agreement between the [Dungilson, 1999; Wood, J.C., 1990. A performance model for coal-washing dense medium cyclones, Ph.D. Thesis, JKMRC, University of Queensland] correlations and the CFD are reasonably good, but the overflow density is lower than the model predictions. It is believed that the excessive underflow volumetric flow rates are responsible for under prediction of the overflow density. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Sea-water intrusion is actively contaminating fresh groundwater reserves in the coastal aquifers of the Pioneer Valley,north-eastern Australia. A three-dimensional sea-water intrusion model has been developed using the MODHMS code to explore regional-scale processes and to aid assessment of management strategies for the system. A sea-water intrusion potential map, produced through analyses of the hydrochemistry, hydrology and hydrogeology, offsets model limitations by providing an alternative appraisal of susceptibility. Sea-water intrusion in the Pioneer Valley is not in equilibrium, and a potential exists for further landward shifts in the extent of saline groundwater. The model required consideration of tidal over-height (the additional hydraulic head at the coast produced by the action of tides), with over-height values in the range 0.5-0.9 m giving improved water-table predictions. The effect of the initial water-table condition dominated the sensitivity of the model to changes in the coastal hydraulic boundary condition. Several salination processes are probably occurring in the Pioneer Valley, rather than just simple landward sea-water advancement from modern sources of marine salts. The method of vertical discretisation (i.e. model-layer subdivision) was shown to introduce some errors in the prediction of watertable behaviour.

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A unique hand-held gene gun is employed for ballistically delivering biomolecules to key cells in the skin and mucosa in the treatment of the major diseases. One of these types of devices, called the Contoured Shock Tube (CST), delivers powdered micro-particles to the skin with a narrow and highly controllable velocity distribution and a nominally uniform spatial distribution. In this paper, we apply a numerical approach to gain new insights in to the behavior of the CST prototype device. The drag correlations proposed by Henderson (1976), Igra and Takayama (1993) and Kurian and Das (1997) were applied to predict the micro-particle transport in a numerically simulated gas flow. Simulated pressure histories agree well with the corresponding static and Pitot pressure measurements, validating the CFD approach. The calculated velocity distributions show a good agreement, with the best prediction from Igra & Takayama correlation (maximum discrepancy of 5%). Key features of the gas dynamics and gas-particle interaction are discussed. Statistic analyses show a tight free-jet particle velocity distribution is achieved (570 +/- 14.7 m/s) for polystyrene particles (39 +/- 1 mu m), representative of a drug payload.

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This thesis concerns mixed flows (which are characterized by the simultaneous occurrence of free-surface and pressurized flow in sewers, tunnels, culverts or under bridges), and contributes to the improvement of the existing numerical tools for modelling these phenomena. The classic Preissmann slot approach is selected due to its simplicity and capability of predicting results comparable to those of a more recent and complex two-equation model, as shown here with reference to a laboratory test case. In order to enhance the computational efficiency, a local time stepping strategy is implemented in a shock-capturing Godunov-type finite volume numerical scheme for the integration of the de Saint-Venant equations. The results of different numerical tests show that local time stepping reduces run time significantly (between −29% and −85% CPU time for the test cases considered) compared to the conventional global time stepping, especially when only a small region of the flow field is surcharged, while solution accuracy and mass conservation are not impaired. The second part of this thesis is devoted to the modelling of the hydraulic effects of potentially pressurized structures, such as bridges and culverts, inserted in open channel domains. To this aim, a two-dimensional mixed flow model is developed first. The classic conservative formulation of the 2D shallow water equations for free-surface flow is adapted by assuming that two fictitious vertical slots, normally intersecting, are added on the ceiling of each integration element. Numerical results show that this schematization is suitable for the prediction of 2D flooding phenomena in which the pressurization of crossing structures can be expected. Given that the Preissmann model does not allow for the possibility of bridge overtopping, a one-dimensional model is also presented in this thesis to handle this particular condition. The flows below and above the deck are considered as parallel, and linked to the upstream and downstream reaches of the channel by introducing suitable internal boundary conditions. The comparison with experimental data and with the results of HEC-RAS simulations shows that the proposed model can be a useful and effective tool for predicting overtopping and backwater effects induced by the presence of bridges and culverts.

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This paper focuses on the development of methods and cascade of models for flood monitoring and forecasting and its implementation in Grid environment. The processing of satellite data for flood extent mapping is done using neural networks. For flood forecasting we use cascade of models: regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, hydrological model and hydraulic model. Implementation of developed methods and models in the Grid infrastructure and related projects are discussed.

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Groundwater systems of different densities are often mathematically modeled to understand and predict environmental behavior such as seawater intrusion or submarine groundwater discharge. Additional data collection may be justified if it will cost-effectively aid in reducing the uncertainty of a model's prediction. The collection of salinity, as well as, temperature data could aid in reducing predictive uncertainty in a variable-density model. However, before numerical models can be created, rigorous testing of the modeling code needs to be completed. This research documents the benchmark testing of a new modeling code, SEAWAT Version 4. The benchmark problems include various combinations of density-dependent flow resulting from variations in concentration and temperature. The verified code, SEAWAT, was then applied to two different hydrological analyses to explore the capacity of a variable-density model to guide data collection. ^ The first analysis tested a linear method to guide data collection by quantifying the contribution of different data types and locations toward reducing predictive uncertainty in a nonlinear variable-density flow and transport model. The relative contributions of temperature and concentration measurements, at different locations within a simulated carbonate platform, for predicting movement of the saltwater interface were assessed. Results from the method showed that concentration data had greater worth than temperature data in reducing predictive uncertainty in this case. Results also indicated that a linear method could be used to quantify data worth in a nonlinear model. ^ The second hydrological analysis utilized a model to identify the transient response of the salinity, temperature, age, and amount of submarine groundwater discharge to changes in tidal ocean stage, seasonal temperature variations, and different types of geology. The model was compared to multiple kinds of data to (1) calibrate and verify the model, and (2) explore the potential for the model to be used to guide the collection of data using techniques such as electromagnetic resistivity, thermal imagery, and seepage meters. Results indicated that the model can be used to give insight to submarine groundwater discharge and be used to guide data collection. ^

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The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is a novel set of Earth system simulation components and consists of an atmospheric model, an ocean model and a land-ice model. Its distinct features are the use of unstructured Voronoi meshes and C-grid discretisation to address shortcomings of global models on regular grids and the use of limited area models nested in a forcing data set, with respect to parallel scalability, numerical accuracy and physical consistency. This concept allows one to include the feedback of regional land use information on weather and climate at local and global scales in a consistent way, which is impossible to achieve with traditional limited area modelling approaches. Here, we present an in-depth evaluation of MPAS with regards to technical aspects of performing model runs and scalability for three medium-size meshes on four different high-performance computing (HPC) sites with different architectures and compilers. We uncover model limitations and identify new aspects for the model optimisation that are introduced by the use of unstructured Voronoi meshes. We further demonstrate the model performance of MPAS in terms of its capability to reproduce the dynamics of the West African monsoon (WAM) and its associated precipitation in a pilot study. Constrained by available computational resources, we compare 11-month runs for two meshes with observations and a reference simulation from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We show that MPAS can reproduce the atmospheric dynamics on global and local scales in this experiment, but identify a precipitation excess for the West African region. Finally, we conduct extreme scaling tests on a global 3?km mesh with more than 65 million horizontal grid cells on up to half a million cores. We discuss necessary modifications of the model code to improve its parallel performance in general and specific to the HPC environment. We confirm good scaling (70?% parallel efficiency or better) of the MPAS model and provide numbers on the computational requirements for experiments with the 3?km mesh. In doing so, we show that global, convection-resolving atmospheric simulations with MPAS are within reach of current and next generations of high-end computing facilities.

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Hurricane Sandy was the largest storm on historical record in the Atlantic Ocean basin with extensive coastal damage caused by large waves and high storm surge. The primary objectives of this thesis are to compare and evaluate three different spatially-varying surface wind fields of Hurricane Sandy to investigate the impact of the differences between the complex wind fields on predictions of the sea surface evolution, and to evaluate the impact of the storm on the hydrodynamics in Great South Bay (GSB) and the discharge of ocean water into the back-barrier bay from overwash over Fire Island. Three different spatially-varying surface wind fields were evaluated and compared to wind observations, including the parametric Holland (1980) model (H80), the parametric Generalized Asymmetric Holland Model (GAHM), and results from the WeatherFlow Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (WRAMS). The winds were used to drive the coupled Delft3D-SWAN hydrodynamic and ocean wave models on a regional grid. The results indicate that the WRAMS wind field produces wave model predictions in the best agreement with significant wave height observations, followed by the GAHM and H80 wind fields and that a regional atmospheric wind model is best for hindcasting hurricane waves and water levels when detailed observations are available, while a parametric vortex model is best for forecasting hurricane sea surface conditions. Using a series of four connected Delft3D-SWAN grids to achieve finer resolution over Fire Island and GSB, a higher resolution WRAMS was used to predict waves and storm surge. The results indicate that strong local winds have the largest influence on water level fluctuations in GSB. Three numerical solutions were conducted with varying extents of barrier island overwash. The simulations allowing for minor and major overwash indicated good agreement with observations in the east end of GSB and suggest that island overwash provided a significant contribution of ocean water to GSB during the storm. Limiting the overwash in the numerical model directly impacts the total discharge into GSB from the ocean through existing inlets. The results of this study indicate that barrier island overwash had a significant impact on the water levels in eastern GSB.

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By proposing a numerical based method on PCA-ANFIS(Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System), this paper is focusing on solving the problem of uncertain cycle of water injection in the oilfield. As the dimension of original data is reduced by PCA, ANFIS can be applied for training and testing the new data proposed by this paper. The correctness of PCA-ANFIS models are verified by the injection statistics data collected from 116 wells inside an oilfield, the average absolute error of testing is 1.80 months. With comparison by non-PCA based models which average error is 4.33 months largely ahead of PCA-ANFIS based models, it shows that the testing accuracy has been greatly enhanced by our approach. With the conclusion of the above testing, the PCA-ANFIS method is robust in predicting the effectiveness cycle of water injection which helps oilfield developers to design the water injection scheme.

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In order to solve the problem of uncertain cycle of water injection in the oilfield, this paper proposed a numerical method based on PCA-FNN, so that it can forecast the effective cycle of water injection. PCA is used to reduce the dimension of original data, while FNN is applied to train and test the new data. The correctness of PCA-FNN model is verified by the real injection statistics data from 116 wells of an oilfield, the result shows that the average absolute error and relative error of the test are 1.97 months and 10.75% respectively. The testing accuracy has been greatly improved by PCA-FNN model compare with the FNN which has not been processed by PCA and multiple liner regression method. Therefore, PCA-FNN method is reliable to forecast the effectiveness cycle of water injection and it can be used as an decision-making reference method for the engineers.

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This thesis focuses on experimental and numerical studies of the hydrodynamic interaction between two vessels in close proximity in waves. In the model tests, two identical box-like models with round corners were used. Regular waves with the same wave steepness and different wave frequencies were generated. Six degrees of freedom body motions and wave elevations between bodies were measured in a head sea condition. Three initial gap widths were examined. In the numerical computations, a panel-free method based seakeeping program, MAPS0, and a panel method based program, WAMIT, were used for the prediction of body motions and wave elevations. The computed body motions and wave elevations were compared with experimental data.

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The anticipated growth of air traffic worldwide requires enhanced Air Traffic Management (ATM) technologies and procedures to increase the system capacity, efficiency, and resilience, while reducing environmental impact and maintaining operational safety. To deal with these challenges, new automation and information exchange capabilities are being developed through different modernisation initiatives toward a new global operational concept called Trajectory Based Operations (TBO), in which aircraft trajectory information becomes the cornerstone of advanced ATM applications. This transformation will lead to higher levels of system complexity requiring enhanced Decision Support Tools (DST) to aid humans in the decision making processes. These will rely on accurate predicted aircraft trajectories, provided by advanced Trajectory Predictors (TP). The trajectory prediction process is subject to stochastic effects that introduce uncertainty into the predictions. Regardless of the assumptions that define the aircraft motion model underpinning the TP, deviations between predicted and actual trajectories are unavoidable. This thesis proposes an innovative method to characterise the uncertainty associated with a trajectory prediction based on the mathematical theory of Polynomial Chaos Expansions (PCE). Assuming univariate PCEs of the trajectory prediction inputs, the method describes how to generate multivariate PCEs of the prediction outputs that quantify their associated uncertainty. Arbitrary PCE (aPCE) was chosen because it allows a higher degree of flexibility to model input uncertainty. The obtained polynomial description can be used in subsequent prediction sensitivity analyses thanks to the relationship between polynomial coefficients and Sobol indices. The Sobol indices enable ranking the input parameters according to their influence on trajectory prediction uncertainty. The applicability of the aPCE-based uncertainty quantification detailed herein is analysed through a study case. This study case represents a typical aircraft trajectory prediction problem in ATM, in which uncertain parameters regarding aircraft performance, aircraft intent description, weather forecast, and initial conditions are considered simultaneously. Numerical results are compared to those obtained from a Monte Carlo simulation, demonstrating the advantages of the proposed method. The thesis includes two examples of DSTs (Demand and Capacity Balancing tool, and Arrival Manager) to illustrate the potential benefits of exploiting the proposed uncertainty quantification method.