Changes in the oceanic northeast Pacific plankton populations; what may happen in a warmer ocean

The Continuous Plankton Recorder has been sampling the northeast Pacific on a routine basis since 2000. Although this is a relatively short time series still, climate variability within that time has caused noticeable related changes in the plankton. The earlier part of the time series followed the 1999 La Nina and conditions were cool, but conditions between 2003 and 2005 were anomalously warm. Oceanic zooplankton have responded to this warming in several ways that are discernible in CPR data. The seasonal cycle of mesozooplankton biomass in the eastern Gulf of Alaska has shifted earlier in the spring by a few weeks (sampling resolution is too coarse to be more accurate). The copepod Neocalanus plumchruslflemingeri is largely responsible as it makes up a high proportion of the spring surface biomass and stage-based determinations have shown an earlier maximum in warmer years across much of the northeast Pacific, spanning nearly 20 degrees of latitude. Summer copepod populations are more diverse than in spring, although lower in biomass. The northwards extension of southern taxa in the summer correlates with surface temperature and in warmer years southern taxa are found further north than in cooler years. These findings support the importance of monitoring the open ocean particularly as it is an important foraging ground for large fish, birds and mammals. Higher trophic levels may time their reproduction or migration to coincide with the abundance of particular prey which may be of a different composition and/or lower abundance at a particular time in warmer conditions.

Shortened duration of the annual Neocalanus plumchrus biomass peak in the Northeast Pacific

The calanoid copepod Neocalan us plumchrus (Marukawa) is a dominant member of the spring mesozooplankton in the subarctic North Pacific and Bering Sea. Previous studies have shown interdecadal and latitudinal variation in seasonal developmental timing, with peak biomass occurring earlier in years and places with warmer upper ocean temperatures. Because N. plumchrus normally has a single dominant annual cohort, its seasonal timing can be indexed from measurements of total population biomass or by following progressive changes in stage composition. Early studies empirically found that peak upper ocean biomass occurred when about half of the pre-dormant population had reached copepodite stage 5 (C5). However, more recent comparisons derived from recent Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) data now show peak biomass when a larger fraction (> 80%) of the population is at C5. CPR samples the surface 10 to 15 m, but comparisons to depth-resolved BIONESS data show that this discrepancy is not an artefact of sampling depth. Other causes are either a prolongation of duration of pre-dormant C5 or a narrowing of the age range making up the annual cohort. We assessed changes in cohort width using a modification of Greve's cumulative percentile method, and found that average cohort widths in the Alaska Gyre were significantly narrower in 2000-2007 than in 1957-1965 (1968-1980 were intermediate). Net tow sampling of Strait of Georgia populations showed a similar significant narrowing of cohorts in the 2003-2005 sampling period. This study provides evidence that in addition to the shift to an earlier occurrence of peak biomass reported previously, the duration of the peak has also decreased in the last decade.

Relationships between North Atlantic salmon, plankton and hydroclimatic change in the Northeast Atlantic

The abundance of wild salmon (Salmo salar) in the North Atlantic has declined markedly since the late 1980s as a result of increased marine mortality that coincided with a marked rise in sea temperature in oceanic foraging areas. There is substantial evidence to show that temperature governs the growth, survival, and maturation of salmon during their marine migrations through either direct or indirect effects. In an earlier study (2003), long-term changes in three trophic levels (salmon, zooplankton, and phytoplankton) were shown to be correlated significantly with sea surface temperature (SST) and northern hemisphere temperature (NHT). A sequence of trophic changes ending with a stepwise decline in the total nominal catch of North Atlantic salmon (regime shift in ∼1986/1987) was superimposed on a trend to a warmer dynamic regime. Here, the earlier study is updated with catch and abundance data to 2010, confirming earlier results and detecting a new abrupt shift in ∼1996/1997. Although correlations between changes in salmon, plankton, and temperature are reinforced, the significance of the correlations is reduced because the temporal autocorrelation of time-series substantially increased due to a monotonic trend in the time-series, probably related to global warming. This effect may complicate future detection of effects of climate change on natural systems.

Synchronous response of marine plankton ecosystems to climate in the Northeast Atlantic and the North Sea

Over the last few decades, global warming has accelerated both the rate and magnitude of changes observed in many functional units of the Earth System. In this context, plankton are sentinel organisms because they are sensitive to subtle levels of changes in temperature and might help in identifying the current effects of climate change on pelagic ecosystems. In this paper, we performed a comparative approach in two regions of the North Atlantic (i.e. the Northeast Atlantic and the North Sea) to explore the relationships between changes in marine plankton, the regional physico-chemical environment and large-scale hydro-climatic forcing using four key indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the East Atlantic (EA) pattern and Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) anomalies. Our analyses suggest that long-term changes in the states of the two ecosystems were synchronous and correlated to the same large-scale hydro-climatic variables: NHT anomalies, the AMO and to a lesser extent the EA pattern. No significant correlation was found between long-term ecosystem modifications and the state of the NAO. Our results suggest that the effect of climate on these ecosystems has mainly occurred in both regions through the modulation of the thermal regime.

Volcanic ash fuels anomalous plankton bloom in subarctic northeast Pacific

Using multiple lines of evidence, we demonstrate that volcanic ash deposition in August 2008 initiated one of the largest phytoplankton blooms observed in the subarctic North Pacific. Unusually widespread transport from a volcanic eruption in the Aleutian Islands, Alaska deposited ash over much of the subarctic NE Pacific, followed by large increases in satellite chlorophyll. Surface ocean pCO2, pH, and fluorescence reveal that the bloom started a few days after ashfall. Ship-based measurements showed increased dominance by diatoms. This evidence points toward fertilization of this normally iron-limited region by ash, a relatively new mechanism proposed for iron supply to the ocean. The observations do not support other possible mechanisms. Extrapolation of the pCO2 data to the area of the bloom suggests a modest ∼0.01 Pg carbon export from this event, implying that even large-scale iron fertilization at an optimum time of year is not very efficient at sequestering atmospheric CO2.