Conditional Confidence Interval for the Scale Parameter of a Weibull Distribution

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62F25, 62F03.

Improving the predictability of time series by chaotic parameter estimation

Limited literature regarding parameter estimation of dynamic systems has been identified as the central-most reason for not having parametric bounds in chaotic time series. However, literature suggests that a chaotic system displays a sensitive dependence on initial conditions, and our study reveals that the behavior of chaotic system: is also sensitive to changes in parameter values. Therefore, parameter estimation technique could make it possible to establish parametric bounds on a nonlinear dynamic system underlying a given time series, which in turn can improve predictability. By extracting the relationship between parametric bounds and predictability, we implemented chaos-based models for improving prediction in time series. ^ This study describes work done to establish bounds on a set of unknown parameters. Our research results reveal that by establishing parametric bounds, it is possible to improve the predictability of any time series, although the dynamics or the mathematical model of that series is not known apriori. In our attempt to improve the predictability of various time series, we have established the bounds for a set of unknown parameters. These are: (i) the embedding dimension to unfold a set of observation in the phase space, (ii) the time delay to use for a series, (iii) the number of neighborhood points to use for avoiding detection of false neighborhood and, (iv) the local polynomial to build numerical interpolation functions from one region to another. Using these bounds, we are able to get better predictability in chaotic time series than previously reported. In addition, the developments of this dissertation can establish a theoretical framework to investigate predictability in time series from the system-dynamics point of view. ^ In closing, our procedure significantly reduces the computer resource usage, as the search method is refined and efficient. Finally, the uniqueness of our method lies in its ability to extract chaotic dynamics inherent in non-linear time series by observing its values. ^

A non-linear discrete stochastic optimization model for Advanced Access patient appointment scheduling

Access to healthcare is a major problem in which patients are deprived of receiving timely admission to healthcare. Poor access has resulted in significant but avoidable healthcare cost, poor quality of healthcare, and deterioration in the general public health. Advanced Access is a simple and direct approach to appointment scheduling in which the majority of a clinic's appointments slots are kept open in order to provide access for immediate or same day healthcare needs and therefore, alleviate the problem of poor access the healthcare. This research formulates a non-linear discrete stochastic mathematical model of the Advanced Access appointment scheduling policy. The model objective is to maximize the expected profit of the clinic subject to constraints on minimum access to healthcare provided. Patient behavior is characterized with probabilities for no-show, balking, and related patient choices. Structural properties of the model are analyzed to determine whether Advanced Access patient scheduling is feasible. To solve the complex combinatorial optimization problem, a heuristic that combines greedy construction algorithm and neighborhood improvement search was developed. The model and the heuristic were used to evaluate the Advanced Access patient appointment policy compared to existing policies. Trade-off between profit and access to healthcare are established, and parameter analysis of input parameters was performed. The trade-off curve is a characteristic curve and was observed to be concave. This implies that there exists an access level at which at which the clinic can be operated at optimal profit that can be realized. The results also show that, in many scenarios by switching from existing scheduling policy to Advanced Access policy clinics can improve access without any decrease in profit. Further, the success of Advanced Access policy in providing improved access and/or profit depends on the expected value of demand, variation in demand, and the ratio of demand for same day and advanced appointments. The contributions of the dissertation are a model of Advanced Access patient scheduling, a heuristic to solve the model, and the use of the model to understand the scheduling policy trade-offs which healthcare clinic managers must make. ^

Can a Broader Education Narrow the Gap? Evidence on Non-Academic Features of Schooling

Empirical studies of education programs and systems, by nature, rely upon use of student outcomes that are measurable. Often, these come in the form of test scores. However, in light of growing evidence about the long-run importance of other student skills and behaviors, the time has come for a broader approach to evaluating education. This dissertation undertakes experimental, quasi-experimental, and descriptive analyses to examine social, behavioral, and health-related mechanisms of the educational process. My overarching research question is simply, which inside- and outside-the-classroom features of schools and educational interventions are most beneficial to students in the long term? Furthermore, how can we apply this evidence toward informing policy that could effectively reduce stark social, educational, and economic inequalities?

The first study of three assesses mechanisms by which the Fast Track project, a randomized intervention in the early 1990s for high-risk children in four communities (Durham, NC; Nashville, TN; rural PA; and Seattle, WA), reduced delinquency, arrests, and health and mental health service utilization in adolescence through young adulthood (ages 12-20). A decomposition of treatment effects indicates that about a third of Fast Track’s impact on later crime outcomes can be accounted for by improvements in social and self-regulation skills during childhood (ages 6-11), such as prosocial behavior, emotion regulation and problem solving. These skills proved less valuable for the prevention of mental and physical health problems.

The second study contributes new evidence on how non-instructional investments – such as increased spending on school social workers, guidance counselors, and health services – affect multiple aspects of student performance and well-being. Merging several administrative data sources spanning the 1996-2013 school years in North Carolina, I use an instrumental variables approach to estimate the extent to which local expenditure shifts affect students’ academic and behavioral outcomes. My findings indicate that exogenous increases in spending on non-instructional services not only reduce student absenteeism and disciplinary problems (important predictors of long-term outcomes) but also significantly raise student achievement, in similar magnitude to corresponding increases in instructional spending. Furthermore, subgroup analyses suggest that investments in student support personnel such as social workers, health services, and guidance counselors, in schools with concentrated low-income student populations could go a long way toward closing socioeconomic achievement gaps.

The third study examines individual pathways that lead to high school graduation or dropout. It employs a variety of machine learning techniques, including decision trees, random forests with bagging and boosting, and support vector machines, to predict student dropout using longitudinal administrative data from North Carolina. I consider a large set of predictor measures from grades three through eight including academic achievement, behavioral indicators, and background characteristics. My findings indicate that the most important predictors include eighth grade absences, math scores, and age-for-grade as well as early reading scores. Support vector classification (with a high cost parameter and low gamma parameter) predicts high school dropout with the highest overall validity in the testing dataset at 90.1 percent followed by decision trees with boosting and interaction terms at 89.5 percent.

Evaporation maps for ternary non-ideal liquid mixtures

This thesis deals with the evaporation of non-ideal liquid mixtures using a multicomponent mass transfer approach. It develops the concept of evaporation maps as a convenient way of representing the dynamic composition changes of ternary mixtures during an evaporation process. Evaporation maps represent the residual composition of evaporating ternary non-ideal mixtures over the full range of composition, and are analogous to the commonly-used residue curve maps of simple distillation processes. The evaporation process initially considered in this work involves gas-phase limited evaporation from a liquid or wetted-solid surface, over which a gas flows at known conditions. Evaporation may occur into a pure inert gas, or into one pre-loaded with a known fraction of one of the ternary components. To explore multicomponent masstransfer effects, a model is developed that uses an exact solution to the Maxwell-Stefan equations for mass transfer in the gas film, with a lumped approach applied to the liquid phase. Solutions to the evaporation model take the form of trajectories in temperaturecomposition space, which are then projected onto a ternary diagram to form the map. Novel algorithms are developed for computation of pseudo-azeotropes in the evaporating mixture, and for calculation of the multicomponent wet-bulb temperature at a given liquid composition. A numerical continuation method is used to track the bifurcations which occur in the evaporation maps, where the composition of one component of the pre-loaded gas is the bifurcation parameter. The bifurcation diagrams can in principle be used to determine the required gas composition to produce a specific terminal composition in the liquid. A simple homotopy method is developed to track the locations of the various possible pseudo-azeotropes in the mixture. The stability of pseudo-azeotropes in the gas-phase limited case is examined using a linearized analysis of the governing equations. Algorithms for the calculation of separation boundaries in the evaporation maps are developed using an optimization-based method, as well as a method employing eigenvectors derived from the linearized analysis. The flexure of the wet-bulb temperature surface is explored, and it is shown how evaporation trajectories cross ridges and valleys, so that ridges and valleys of the surface do not coincide with separation boundaries. Finally, the assumption of gas-phase limited mass transfer is relaxed, by employing a model that includes diffusion in the liquid phase. A finite-volume method is used to solve the system of partial differential equations that results. The evaporation trajectories for the distributed model reduce to those of the lumped (gas-phase limited) model as the diffusivity in the liquid increases; under the same gas-phase conditions the permissible terminal compositions of the distributed and lumped models are the same.

Non-equilibrium properties of trapped ions under sudden application of a laser

Coherent quantum-state manipulation of trapped ions using classical laser fields is a trademark of modern quantum technologies. In this work, we study aspects of work statistics and irreversibility in a single trapped ion due to sudden interaction with the impinging laser. This is clearly an out-of-equilibrium process where work is performed through illumination of an ion by the laser. Starting with the explicit evaluation of the first moments of the work distribution, we proceed to a careful analysis of irreversibility as quantified by the nonequilibrium lag. The treatment employed here is not restricted to the Lamb-Dicke limit, what allows us to investigate the interplay between nonlinearities and irreversibility. We show, for instance, that in the resolved carrier and sideband regimes, variation of the Lamb-Dicke parameter may cause a non-monotonic behavior of the irreversibility indicator. Counterintuitively, we find a working point where nonlinearity helps reversibility, making the sudden quench of the Hamiltonian closer to what would have been obtained quasistatically and isothermally.

Non-contact Pressure-based Sleep/Wake Discrimination

Poor sleep is increasingly being recognised as an important prognostic parameter of health. For those with suspected sleep disorders, patients are referred to sleep clinics which guide treatment. However, sleep clinics are not always a viable option due to their high cost, a lack of experienced practitioners, lengthy waiting lists and an unrepresentative sleeping environment. A home-based non-contact sleep/wake monitoring system may be used as a guide for treatment potentially stratifying patients by clinical need or highlighting longitudinal changes in sleep and nocturnal patterns. This paper presents the evaluation of an under-mattress sleep monitoring system for non-contact sleep/wake discrimination. A large dataset of sensor data with concomitant sleep/wake state was collected from both younger and older adults participating in a circadian sleep study. A thorough training/testing/validation procedure was configured and optimised feature extraction and sleep/wake discrimination algorithms evaluated both within and across the two cohorts. An accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of 74.3%, 95.5%, and 53.2% is reported over all subjects using an external validation
dataset (71.9%, 87.9% and 56%, and 77.5%, 98% and 57% is reported for younger and older subjects respectively). These results compare favourably with similar research, however this system provides an ambient alternative suitable for long term continuous sleep monitoring, particularly amongst vulnerable populations.

Parameter Identification in a Tuberculosis Model for Cameroon

A deterministic model of tuberculosis in Cameroon is designed and analyzed with respect to its transmission dynamics. The model includes lack of access to treatment and weak diagnosis capacity as well as both frequency-and density-dependent transmissions. It is shown that the model is mathematically well-posed and epidemiologically reasonable. Solutions are non-negative and bounded whenever the initial values are non-negative. A sensitivity analysis of model parameters is performed and the most sensitive ones are identified by means of a state-of-the-art Gauss-Newton method. In particular, parameters representing the proportion of individuals having access to medical facilities are seen to have a large impact on the dynamics of the disease. The model predicts that a gradual increase of these parameters could significantly reduce the disease burden on the population within the next 15 years.

An experiment on the parameter uncertainty of hydrological models with different levels of complexity in a climate change context

La possibilité d’estimer l’impact du changement climatique en cours sur le comportement hydrologique des hydro-systèmes est une nécessité pour anticiper les adaptations inévitables et nécessaires que doivent envisager nos sociétés. Dans ce contexte, ce projet doctoral présente une étude sur l’évaluation de la sensibilité des projections hydrologiques futures à : (i) La non-robustesse de l’identification des paramètres des modèles hydrologiques, (ii) l’utilisation de plusieurs jeux de paramètres équifinaux et (iii) l’utilisation de différentes structures de modèles hydrologiques. Pour quantifier l’impact de la première source d’incertitude sur les sorties des modèles, quatre sous-périodes climatiquement contrastées sont tout d’abord identifiées au sein des chroniques observées. Les modèles sont calés sur chacune de ces quatre périodes et les sorties engendrées sont analysées en calage et en validation en suivant les quatre configurations du Different Splitsample Tests (Klemeš, 1986;Wilby, 2005; Seiller et al. (2012);Refsgaard et al. (2014)). Afin d’étudier la seconde source d’incertitude liée à la structure du modèle, l’équifinalité des jeux de paramètres est ensuite prise en compte en considérant pour chaque type de calage les sorties associées à des jeux de paramètres équifinaux. Enfin, pour évaluer la troisième source d’incertitude, cinq modèles hydrologiques de différents niveaux de complexité sont appliqués (GR4J, MORDOR, HSAMI, SWAT et HYDROTEL) sur le bassin versant québécois de la rivière Au Saumon. Les trois sources d’incertitude sont évaluées à la fois dans conditions climatiques observées passées et dans les conditions climatiques futures. Les résultats montrent que, en tenant compte de la méthode d’évaluation suivie dans ce doctorat, l’utilisation de différents niveaux de complexité des modèles hydrologiques est la principale source de variabilité dans les projections de débits dans des conditions climatiques futures. Ceci est suivi par le manque de robustesse de l’identification des paramètres. Les projections hydrologiques générées par un ensemble de jeux de paramètres équifinaux sont proches de celles associées au jeu de paramètres optimal. Par conséquent, plus d’efforts devraient être investis dans l’amélioration de la robustesse des modèles pour les études d’impact sur le changement climatique, notamment en développant les structures des modèles plus appropriés et en proposant des procédures de calage qui augmentent leur robustesse. Ces travaux permettent d’apporter une réponse détaillée sur notre capacité à réaliser un diagnostic des impacts des changements climatiques sur les ressources hydriques du bassin Au Saumon et de proposer une démarche méthodologique originale d’analyse pouvant être directement appliquée ou adaptée à d’autres contextes hydro-climatiques.

A III-V channel field effect transistor for non-classical CMOS: process optimisation for improved gate stack function

This thesis describes a collection of studies into the electrical response of a III-V MOS stack comprising metal/GaGdO/GaAs layers as a function of fabrication process variables and the findings of those studies. As a result of this work, areas of improvement in the gate process module of a III-V heterostructure MOSFET were identified. Compared to traditional bulk silicon MOSFET design, one featuring a III-V channel heterostructure with a high-dielectric-constant oxide as the gate insulator provides numerous benefits, for example: the insulator can be made thicker for the same capacitance, the operating voltage can be made lower for the same current output, and improved output characteristics can be achieved without reducing the channel length further. It is known that transistors composed of III-V materials are most susceptible to damage induced by radiation and plasma processing. These devices utilise sub-10 nm gate dielectric films, which are prone to contamination, degradation and damage. Therefore, throughout the course of this work, process damage and contamination issues, as well as various techniques to mitigate or prevent those have been investigated through comparative studies of III-V MOS capacitors and transistors comprising various forms of metal gates, various thicknesses of GaGdO dielectric, and a number of GaAs-based semiconductor layer structures. Transistors which were fabricated before this work commenced, showed problems with threshold voltage control. Specifically, MOSFETs designed for normally-off (VTH > 0) operation exhibited below-zero threshold voltages. With the results obtained during this work, it was possible to gain an understanding of why the transistor threshold voltage shifts as the gate length decreases and of what pulls the threshold voltage downwards preventing normally-off device operation. Two main culprits for the negative VTH shift were found. The first was radiation damage induced by the gate metal deposition process, which can be prevented by slowing down the deposition rate. The second was the layer of gold added on top of platinum in the gate metal stack which reduces the effective work function of the whole gate due to its electronegativity properties. Since the device was designed for a platinum-only gate, this could explain the below zero VTH. This could be prevented either by using a platinum-only gate, or by matching the layer structure design and the actual gate metal used for the future devices. Post-metallisation thermal anneal was shown to mitigate both these effects. However, if post-metallisation annealing is used, care should be taken to ensure it is performed before the ohmic contacts are formed as the thermal treatment was shown to degrade the source/drain contacts. In addition, the programme of studies this thesis describes, also found that if the gate contact is deposited before the source/drain contacts, it causes a shift in threshold voltage towards negative values as the gate length decreases, because the ohmic contact anneal process affects the properties of the underlying material differently depending on whether it is covered with the gate metal or not. In terms of surface contamination; this work found that it causes device-to-device parameter variation, and a plasma clean is therefore essential. This work also demonstrated that the parasitic capacitances in the system, namely the contact periphery dependent gate-ohmic capacitance, plays a significant role in the total gate capacitance. This is true to such an extent that reducing the distance between the gate and the source/drain ohmic contacts in the device would help with shifting the threshold voltages closely towards the designed values. The findings made available by the collection of experiments performed for this work have two major applications. Firstly, these findings provide useful data in the study of the possible phenomena taking place inside the metal/GaGdO/GaAs layers and interfaces as the result of chemical processes applied to it. In addition, these findings allow recommendations as to how to best approach fabrication of devices utilising these layers.

Soft computing based parameter identification in pavements and geomechanical systems

Accurate estimation of road pavement geometry and layer material properties through the use of proper nondestructive testing and sensor technologies is essential for evaluating pavement’s structural condition and determining options for maintenance and rehabilitation. For these purposes, pavement deflection basins produced by the nondestructive Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) test data are commonly used. The nondestructive FWD test drops weights on the pavement to simulate traffic loads and measures the created pavement deflection basins. Backcalculation of pavement geometry and layer properties using FWD deflections is a difficult inverse problem, and the solution with conventional mathematical methods is often challenging due to the ill-posed nature of the problem. In this dissertation, a hybrid algorithm was developed to seek robust and fast solutions to this inverse problem. The algorithm is based on soft computing techniques, mainly Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) as well as the use of numerical analysis techniques to properly simulate the geomechanical system. A widely used pavement layered analysis program ILLI-PAVE was employed in the analyses of flexible pavements of various pavement types; including full-depth asphalt and conventional flexible pavements, were built on either lime stabilized soils or untreated subgrade. Nonlinear properties of the subgrade soil and the base course aggregate as transportation geomaterials were also considered. A computer program, Soft Computing Based System Identifier or SOFTSYS, was developed. In SOFTSYS, ANNs were used as surrogate models to provide faster solutions of the nonlinear finite element program ILLI-PAVE. The deflections obtained from FWD tests in the field were matched with the predictions obtained from the numerical simulations to develop SOFTSYS models. The solution to the inverse problem for multi-layered pavements is computationally hard to achieve and is often not feasible due to field variability and quality of the collected data. The primary difficulty in the analysis arises from the substantial increase in the degree of non-uniqueness of the mapping from the pavement layer parameters to the FWD deflections. The insensitivity of some layer properties lowered SOFTSYS model performances. Still, SOFTSYS models were shown to work effectively with the synthetic data obtained from ILLI-PAVE finite element solutions. In general, SOFTSYS solutions very closely matched the ILLI-PAVE mechanistic pavement analysis results. For SOFTSYS validation, field collected FWD data were successfully used to predict pavement layer thicknesses and layer moduli of in-service flexible pavements. Some of the very promising SOFTSYS results indicated average absolute errors on the order of 2%, 7%, and 4% for the Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) thickness estimation of full-depth asphalt pavements, full-depth pavements on lime stabilized soils and conventional flexible pavements, respectively. The field validations of SOFTSYS data also produced meaningful results. The thickness data obtained from Ground Penetrating Radar testing matched reasonably well with predictions from SOFTSYS models. The differences observed in the HMA and lime stabilized soil layer thicknesses observed were attributed to deflection data variability from FWD tests. The backcalculated asphalt concrete layer thickness results matched better in the case of full-depth asphalt flexible pavements built on lime stabilized soils compared to conventional flexible pavements. Overall, SOFTSYS was capable of producing reliable thickness estimates despite the variability of field constructed asphalt layer thicknesses.

The transformed-stationary approach: a generic and simplified methodology for non-stationary extreme value analysis

Statistical approaches to study extreme events require, by definition, long time series of data. In many scientific disciplines, these series are often subject to variations at different temporal scales that affect the frequency and intensity of their extremes. Therefore, the assumption of stationarity is violated and alternative methods to conventional stationary extreme value analysis (EVA) must be adopted. Using the example of environmental variables subject to climate change, in this study we introduce the transformed-stationary (TS) methodology for non-stationary EVA. This approach consists of (i) transforming a non-stationary time series into a stationary one, to which the stationary EVA theory can be applied, and (ii) reverse transforming the result into a non-stationary extreme value distribution. As a transformation, we propose and discuss a simple time-varying normalization of the signal and show that it enables a comprehensive formulation of non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) models with a constant shape parameter. A validation of the methodology is carried out on time series of significant wave height, residual water level, and river discharge, which show varying degrees of long-term and seasonal variability. The results from the proposed approach are comparable with the results from (a) a stationary EVA on quasi-stationary slices of non-stationary series and (b) the established method for non-stationary EVA. However, the proposed technique comes with advantages in both cases. For example, in contrast to (a), the proposed technique uses the whole time horizon of the series for the estimation of the extremes, allowing for a more accurate estimation of large return levels. Furthermore, with respect to (b), it decouples the detection of non-stationary patterns from the fitting of the extreme value distribution. As a result, the steps of the analysis are simplified and intermediate diagnostics are possible. In particular, the transformation can be carried out by means of simple statistical techniques such as low-pass filters based on the running mean and the standard deviation, and the fitting procedure is a stationary one with a few degrees of freedom and is easy to implement and control. An open-source MAT-LAB toolbox has been developed to cover this methodology, which is available at https://github.com/menta78/tsEva/(Mentaschi et al., 2016).

Surface irregularity factor as a parameter to evaluate the fatigue damage state of CFRP

This work presents an optical non-contact technique to evaluate the fatigue damage state of CFRP structures measuring the irregularity factor of the surface. This factor includes information about surface topology and can be measured easily on field, by techniques such as optical perfilometers. The surface irregularity factor has been correlated with stiffness degradation, which is a well-accepted parameter for the evaluation of the fatigue damage state of composite materials. Constant amplitude fatigue loads (CAL) and realistic variable amplitude loads (VAL), representative of real in- flight conditions, have been applied to “dog bone” shaped tensile specimens. It has been shown that the measurement of the surface irregularity parameters can be applied to evaluate the damage state of a structure, and that it is independent of the type of fatigue load that has caused the damage. As a result, this measurement technique is applicable for a wide range of inspections of composite material structures, from pressurized tanks with constant amplitude loads, to variable amplitude loaded aeronautical structures such as wings and empennages, up to automotive and other industrial applications.

Convergence time to equilibrium distributions of autonomous and periodic non-autonomous graphs

We present some estimates of the time of convergence to the equilibrium distribution in autonomous and periodic non-autonomous graphs, with ergodic stochastic adjacency matrices, using the eigenvalues of these matrices. On this way we generalize previous results from several authors, that only considered reversible matrices.

Linear and nonlinear thermal instability of Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluid saturated porous media

The present work aims to investigate the influence of different aspects, such as non-standard steady solutions, complex fluid rheologies and non-standard porous-channel geometries, on the stability of a Darcy-Bénard system. In order to do so, both linear and nonlinear stability theories are considered. A linear analysis focuses on studying the dynamics of the single disturbance wave present in the system, while its nonlinear counterpart takes into consideration the interactions among the single modes. The scope of the stability analysis is to obtain information regarding the transition from an equilibrium solution to another one, and also information regarding the transition nature and the emergent solution after the transition. The disturbance governing equations are solved analytically, whenever possible, and numerical by considering different approaches. Among other important results, it is found that a cylinder cross-section does not affect the thermal instability threshold, but just the linear pattern selection for dilatant and pseudoplastic fluid saturated porous media. A new rheological model is proposed as a solution for singular issues involving the power-law model. Also, a generalised class of one parameter basic solutions is proposed as an alternative description of the isoflux Darcy--Bénard problem. Its stability is investigated.