Evaluation of the benefit of emergency vaccination in a foot-and-mouth disease free country with low livestock density

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is highly contagious and one of the most economically devastating diseases of cloven-hoofed animals. Scientific-based preparedness about how to best control the disease in a previously FMD-free country is therefore essential for veterinary services. The present study used a spatial, stochastic epidemic simulation model to compare the effectiveness of emergency vaccination with conventional (non-vaccination) control measures in Switzerland, a low-livestock density country. Model results revealed that emergency vaccination with a radius of 3 km or 10 km around infected premises (IP) did not significantly reduce either the cumulative herd incidence or epidemic duration if started in a small epidemic situation where the number of IPs is still low. However, in a situation where the epidemic has become extensive, both the cumulative herd incidence and epidemic duration are reduced significantly if vaccination were implemented with a radius of 10 km around IPs. The effect of different levels of conventional strategy measures was also explored for the non-vaccination strategy. It was found that a lower compliance level of farmers for movement restrictions and delayed culling of IPs significantly increased both the cumulative IP incidence and epidemic duration. Contingency management should therefore focus mainly on improving conventional strategies, by increasing disease awareness and communication with stakeholders and preparedness of culling teams in countries with a livestock structure similar to Switzerland; however, emergency vaccination should be considered if there are reasons to believe that the epidemic may become extensive, such as when disease detection has been delayed and many IPs are discovered at the beginning of the epidemic.

A patterned abrasion caused by the impact of a cartridge case may simulate an atypical muzzle imprint mark.

In contact shots, the muzzle imprint is an informative finding associated with the entrance wound. It typically mirrors the constructional components being in line with the muzzle or just behind. Under special conditions, other patterned skin marks located near a gunshot entrance wound may give the impression to be part of the muzzle imprint. A potential mechanism causing a patterned pressure abrasion in close proximity to the bullet entrance site is demonstrated on the basis of a suicidal shot to the temple. The skin lesion in question appeared as a ring-shaped excoriation with a diameter corresponding to that of the cartridge case. Two hypotheses concerning the causative mechanism were investigated by test shots: - After being ejected, the cartridge case ricocheted inside a confined space (car cabin in the particular case) and secondarily hit the skin near the gunshot entrance wound. - The ejection of the cartridge case failed so that the case became stuck in the ejection port and its mouth contacted the skin when the body collapsed after being hit.

Evidence for Emergency Vaccination Having Played a Crucial Role to Control the 1965/66 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in Switzerland.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease that caused several large outbreaks in Europe in the last century. The last important outbreak in Switzerland took place in 1965/66 and affected more than 900 premises and more than 50,000 animals were slaughtered. Large-scale emergency vaccination of the cattle and pig population has been applied to control the epidemic. In recent years, many studies have used infectious disease models to assess the impact of different disease control measures, including models developed for diseases exotic for the specific region of interest. Often, the absence of real outbreak data makes a validation of such models impossible. This study aimed to evaluate whether a spatial, stochastic simulation model (the Davis Animal Disease Simulation model) can predict the course of a Swiss FMD epidemic based on the available historic input data on population structure, contact rates, epidemiology of the virus, and quality of the vaccine. In addition, the potential outcome of the 1965/66 FMD epidemic without application of vaccination was investigated. Comparing the model outcomes to reality, only the largest 10% of the simulated outbreaks approximated the number of animals being culled. However, the simulation model highly overestimated the number of culled premises. While the outbreak duration could not be well reproduced by the model compared to the 1965/66 epidemic, it was able to accurately estimate the size of the area infected. Without application of vaccination, the model predicted a much higher mean number of culled animals than with vaccination, demonstrating that vaccination was likely crucial in disease control for the Swiss FMD outbreak in 1965/66. The study demonstrated the feasibility to analyze historical outbreak data with modern analytical tools. However, it also confirmed that predicted epidemics from a most carefully parameterized model cannot integrate all eventualities of a real epidemic. Therefore, decision makers need to be aware that infectious disease models are useful tools to support the decision-making process but their results are not equal valuable as real observations and should always be interpreted with caution.

Palynological record and radiocarbon dates for sediment core T89-16, Congo River mouth

We present a high-resolution reconstruction of tropical palaeoenvironmental changes for the last deglacial transition (18 to 9 cal. kyr BP) based on integrated oceanic and terrestrial proxies from a Congo fan core. Pollen, grass cuticle, Pediastrum and dinoflagellate cyst fluxes, sedimentation rates and planktonic foraminiferal d18O ratios, uK37 sea-surface temperature and alkane/alkenone ratio data highlight a series of abrupt changes in Congo River palaeodischarge. A major discharge pulse is registered at around 13.0 cal. kyr BP which we attribute to latitudinal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) during deglaciation. The data indicate abrupt and short-lived changes in the equatorial precipitation regime within a system of monsoonal dynamics forced by precessional cycles. The phases of enhanced Congo discharge stimulated river-induced upwelling and enhanced productivity in the adjacent ocean.

Molecular differentiation by PCR-RFLP technique shows that Antarctic fishes of the genus Notothenia, claimed to be two species, are phenotypic varieties with the same genetic pattern (Table 1)

The taxonomy of Antarctic fishes has been predominantly based on morphological characteristics rather than on genetic criteria. A typical example is the Notothenia group, which includes N. coriiceps Richardson, 1844, N. neglecta Nybelin, 1951 and N. rossii Richardson, 1844. The Polymerase Chain Reaction and Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) technique was used to determine whether N. coriiceps Richardson, 1844 and N. neglecta Nybelin, 1951 are different or whether they are the same species with morphological, physiological and behavioural variability. N. rossii was used as control. Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) was isolated from muscle specimens of N. coriiceps Richardson, 1844, N. neglecta Nybelin, 1951 and N. rossii, which were collected in Admiralty Bay, King George Island. The DNA was used to amplify a fragment (690 base pairs) of the mitochondrial gene coding region of NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2. Further, the amplicon was digested with the following restriction enzymes: DdeI, HindIII and RsaI. The results showed a variation of the digestion pattern of the fragment amplified between N. rossii, and N. coriiceps Richardson, 1844 or N. neglecta Nybelin, 1951. However, no differences were found between N. coriiceps Richardson, 1844 and N. neglecta Nybelin, 1951, on the grounds of the same genetic pattern shown by the two fish.