Choice under Risk : Theory and Applications

Es útil para estudiantes de postgrado (Master y Doctorado) en cursos de Economía o de Microeconomía en los que se analicen problemas de Decisión en condiciones de Riesgo o Incertidumbre. El documento comienza explicando la Teoría de la Utilidad Esperada. A continuación se estudian la aversión al riesgo, los coeficientes de aversión absoluta y relativa al riesgo, la relación “más averso que” entre agentes económicos y los efectos riqueza sobre las decisiones en algunas relaciones de preferencia utilizadas frecuentemente en el análisis económico. La sección 4 se centra en la comparación entre alternativas arriesgadas en términos de rendimiento y riesgo, considerando la dominancia estocástica de primer y segundo orden y algunas extensiones posteriores de esas relaciones de orden. El documento concluye con doce ejercicios resueltos en los que se aplican los conceptos y resultados expuestos en las secciones anteriores a problemas de decisión en varios contextos

Valuing a Natura 2000 network site to inform land use options using a discrete choice experiment: An illustration from the Basque Country

One of the main problems that public institutions face in the management of protected areas, such as the European Natura 2000 network, is determining how to design and implement sustainable management plans that account for the wide range of marketed and non-marketed benefits they provide to society. This paper presents an application of a stated preference valuation approach aimed at evaluating the social preferences of the population of the Basque Country, Spain, for the key attributes of a regional Natura 2000 network site. According to our results, individuals’ willingness-to-pay (WTP) is higher for attributes associated with non-use values (native tree species and biodiversity conservation) than for attributes associated with use values (agricultural development and commercial forestry). The paper concludes that management policies related to Natura 2000 network sites should account for both for the importance of non-use values and the heterogeneity of the population's preferences in order to minimize potential land use conflicts.

Experimental Economics Meets Language Choice

Roughly one half of World's languages are in danger of extinction. The endangered languages, spoken by minorities, typically compete with powerful languages such as En- glish or Spanish. Consequently, the speakers of minority languages have to consider that not everybody can speak their language, converting the language choice into strategic,coordination-like situation. We show experimentally that the displacement of minority languages may be partially explained by the imperfect information about the linguistic type of the partner, leading to frequent failure to coordinate on the minority language even between two speakers who can and prefer to use it. The extent of miscoordination correlates with how minoritarian a language is and with the real-life linguistic condition of subjects: the more endangered a language the harder it is to coordinate on its use, and people on whom the language survival relies the most acquire behavioral strategies that lower its use. Our game-theoretical treatment of the issue provides a new perspective for linguistic policies.

Value Estimation and Comparison in Multi-Attribute Choice

The following work explores the processes individuals utilize when making multi-attribute choices. With the exception of extremely simple or familiar choices, most decisions we face can be classified as multi-attribute choices. In order to evaluate and make choices in such an environment, we must be able to estimate and weight the particular attributes of an option. Hence, better understanding the mechanisms involved in this process is an important step for economists and psychologists. For example, when choosing between two meals that differ in taste and nutrition, what are the mechanisms that allow us to estimate and then weight attributes when constructing value? Furthermore, how can these mechanisms be influenced by variables such as attention or common physiological states, like hunger?

In order to investigate these and similar questions, we use a combination of choice and attentional data, where the attentional data was collected by recording eye movements as individuals made decisions. Chapter 1 designs and tests a neuroeconomic model of multi-attribute choice that makes predictions about choices, response time, and how these variables are correlated with attention. Chapter 2 applies the ideas in this model to intertemporal decision-making, and finds that attention causally affects discount rates. Chapter 3 explores how hunger, a common physiological state, alters the mechanisms we utilize as we make simple decisions about foods.

Vectorial solution of Kukhtarev equations for doubly doped crystals and optimal choice of recording directions in nonvolatile holographic storage

Vectorial Kukhtarev equations modified for the nonvolatile holographic recording in doubly doped crystals are analyzed, in which the bulk photovoltaic effect and the external electrical field are both considered. On the basis of small modulation approximation, both the analytic solution to the space-charge field with time in the recording phase and in the readout phase are deduced. The analytic solutions can be easily simplified to adapt the one-center model, and they have the same analytic expressions given those when the grating vector is along the optical axis. Based on the vectorial analyses of the band transport model an optimal recording direction is given to maximize the refractive index change in doubly doped LiNbO3:Fe: Mn crystals. (c) 2007 Optical Society of America.

The choice of a suitable sampler for benthic macroinvertebrates in deep rivers

Both chemical and biological methods are used to assess the water quality of rivers. Many standard physical and chemical methods are now established, but biological procedures of comparable accuracy and versatility are still lacking. This is unfortunate because the biological assessment of water quality has several advantages over physical and chemical analyses. Several groups of organisms have been used to assess water quality in rivers and these include Bacteria, Protozoa, Algae, macrophytes, macroinvertebrates and fish. Hellawell (1978) provides an excellent review of the advantages and disadvantages of these groups, and concludes that macroinvertebrates are the most useful for monitoring water quality. Although macroinvertebrates are relatively easy to sample in shallow water (depth < 1m), quantitative sampling poses more problems than qualitative sampling because a large number of replicate sampling units are usually required for accurate estimates of numbers or biomass per unit area. Both qualitative and quantitative sampling are difficult in deep water (depth > 1m). The present paper first considers different types of samplers with emphasis on immediate samplers, and then discusses some problems in choosing a suitable sampler for benthic macroinvertebrates in deep rivers.

Is inbreeding avoidance driving female mate choice in Verreaux's sifaka lemurs?

Females of different species might exert female mate choice for different reasons, one of them the aim of avoiding inbreeding. In this study I examine the implication of inbreeding avoidance as a mechanism driving female mate choice in Verreaux’s sifaka lemurs (Propithecus verreauxi). In fact, in this species females are dominant and appear to be able to choose certain males to mate with, while observations indicate that rank, body size, canine size and proportions of fights won are not factors influencing female mate choice. So I hypothesized that females mate choice is driven by inbreeding avoidance in Verreaux’s sifaka lemurs. Tissue and fecal samples were collected in the Kirindy Mitea National Park in western Madagascar as a source of DNA. Parentage was assigned for a sample of the population and relatedness coefficients between dams and sires were estimated and compared to those of between random female and male pairs, dams and other candidate sires within the population and within the groups were the offspring were conceived. I found that there were no significant differences in none of the comparisons which means that Verreaux’s sifaka females do not mate more with males that are more distantly related to them. I concluded that inbreeding avoidance does not appear to be the main force driving female mate choice in Verreaux’s sifaka lemurs and I addressed explanations for these findings. With this study I contribute to our knowledge of female mate choice in lemurs.

Uganda and Malawi field pilots of proposed LSMS fisheries module: summary report

While an overwhelming majority of sub-Saharan African countries exhibit serious weaknesses in statistics pertaining to crop and livestock sectors, the deficiencies in terms of nationally representative data on the fishery sector are even more acute. The very little data available on the sector are essentially derived from case studies of selected fisheries, and the limited nationally representative data available are generally derived from a few questions included in the livestock section of household surveys. These do not permit the detailed characterization of the fishery production systems. As a consequence in many countries the decision-makers and planners lack the most basic information about the role and importance of the fisheries sector to their national economy. As part of an initiative called the Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) project, a collaboration was developed between the World Bank and the WorldFish Center to address this situation. This report provides detail on pilot testing of a fisheries module for living standards measurement surveys.

Age- or length-based methods of growth estimation. What drives the choice?

Based upon a global comparison of over 400 fisheries, the Principal Components Analysis (PCA) methodology was used to identify factors affecting the choice of growth estimation methods. Of the six factors examined, the growth rate (K) and asymptotic length (L8) explained most of the variations. Financial resources, i.e., Gross National Product (GNP), and latitude were also important factors.

Factors influencing choice of fishing location in Nankumba Peninsula: A case of study of gillnet and chilimira fisheries

This study was carried out to identify factors that influence choice of fishing location and carry out profitability analysis of Chilimira and Gillnet in different fishing locations. A survey using semi-structured questionnaire was administered to 99 Gillnet and 101 Chilimira fishers in Nankumba Peninsula in Mangochi District. The logit model was used to determine the factors influencing choice of fishing location among the fishers. The study showed that 92.1% of Chilimira fishers are operating in offshore areas while 69.7% Gillnet fishers are operating in inshore areas. Chilimira offshore fishers have higher daily average gross margins than their inshore counterparts and Gillnet fishers. However, they incurred more operating costs than the inshore Chilimira and Gillnet fishers. Furthermore, they find their fishing occupation more rewarding as evidenced by the higher returns to labour. The factors that influenced fisher’s choice of fishing location were Age of the fisher, type of fishing vessel and gear, possession of motor sail engine and access to information about previous day’s catch rates. Finally the study concluded that artisanal fishers in Malawi use different criteria in deciding where to fish. The criterion involves a complex interaction of biological, technological, personal and economical factors and time. However, the resource constrained artisanal fisher will need support to enable him exploit offshore fishery resources. Consequently the study recommends that appropriate fishery development interventions by the government and other stakeholders must adapt to the economics and lifestyles driving the artisanal fishers to fish in particular locations and therefore, build on this foundation to improve the existing fishing technologies.