Lifetime prevalence estimates of major depression: An indirect estimation method and a quantification of recall bias

The measurement of lifetime prevalence of depression in cross-sectional surveys is biased by recall problems. We estimated it indirectly for two countries using modelling, and quantified the underestimation in the empirical estimate for one. A microsimulation model was used to generate population-based epidemiological measures of depression. We fitted the model to 1-and 12-month prevalence data from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS) and the Australian Adult Mental Health and Wellbeing Survey. The lowest proportion of cases ever having an episode in their life is 30% of men and 40% of women, for both countries. This corresponds to a lifetime prevalence of 20 and 30%, respectively, in a cross-sectional setting (aged 15-65). The NEMESIS data were 38% lower than these estimates. We conclude that modelling enabled us to estimate lifetime prevalence of depression indirectly. This method is useful in the absence of direct measurement, but also showed that direct estimates are underestimated by recall bias and by the cross-sectional setting.

On the equivalence of weighted Country-Product-Dummy (CPD) Method and the Rao-System for multilateral price comparisons

The country-product-dummy (CPD) method, originally proposed in Summers (1973), has recently been revisited in its weighted formulation to handle a variety of data related situations (Rao and Timmer, 2000, 2003; Heravi et al., 2001; Rao, 2001; Aten and Menezes, 2002; Heston and Aten, 2002; Deaton et al., 2004). The CPD method is also increasingly being used in the context of hedonic modelling instead of its original purpose of filling holes in Summers (1973). However, the CPD method is seen, among practitioners, as a black box due to its regression formulation. The main objective of the paper is to establish equivalence of purchasing power parities and international prices derived from the application of the weighted-CPD method with those arising out of the Rao-system for multilateral comparisons. A major implication of this result is that the weighted-CPD method would then be a natural method of aggregation at all levels of aggregation within the context of international comparisons.

Using intervention time series analyses to assess the effects of imperfectly identifiable natural events: A general method and example

BACKGROUND: Intervention time series analysis (ITSA) is an important method for analysing the effect of sudden events on time series data. ITSA methods are quasi-experimental in nature and the validity of modelling with these methods depends upon assumptions about the timing of the intervention and the response of the process to it. METHOD: This paper describes how to apply ITSA to analyse the impact of unplanned events on time series when the timing of the event is not accurately known, and so the problems of ITSA methods are magnified by uncertainty in the point of onset of the unplanned intervention. RESULTS: The methods are illustrated using the example of the Australian Heroin Shortage of 2001, which provided an opportunity to study the health and social consequences of an abrupt change in heroin availability in an environment of widespread harm reduction measures. CONCLUSION: Application of these methods enables valuable insights about the consequences of unplanned and poorly identified interventions while minimising the risk of spurious results.

On being thrown into phenomenological research: a book review of J.A. Smith, P. Flowers & M. Larkin (2009) Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis: Theory, method and research. London: Sage.

Book review

Transition of legacy systems to semantically enabled applications:TAO method and tools

Despite expectations being high, the industrial take-up of Semantic Web technologies in developing services and applications has been slower than expected. One of the main reasons is that many legacy systems have been developed without considering the potential of theWeb in integrating services and sharing resources.Without a systematic methodology and proper tool support, the migration from legacy systems to SemanticWeb Service-based systems can be a tedious and expensive process, which carries a significant risk of failure. There is an urgent need to provide strategies, allowing the migration of legacy systems to Semantic Web Services platforms, and also tools to support such strategies. In this paper we propose a methodology and its tool support for transitioning these applications to Semantic Web Services, which allow users to migrate their applications to Semantic Web Services platforms automatically or semi-automatically. The transition of the GATE system is used as a case study. © 2009 - IOS Press and the authors. All rights reserved.

The relationship between measurement method and corneal structure on apparent intraocular pressure in glaucoma and ocular hypertension

Purpose: To analyse the relationship between measured intraocular pressure (IOP) and central corneal thickness (CCT), corneal hysteresis (CH) and corneal resistance factor (CRF) in ocular hypertension (OHT), primary open-angle (POAG) and normal tension glaucoma (NTG) eyes using multiple tonometry devices. Methods: Right eyes of patients diagnosed with OHT (n=47), normal tension glaucoma (n=17) and POAG (n=50) were assessed, IOP was measured in random order with four devices: Goldmann applanation tonometry (GAT); Pascal(R) dynamic contour tonometer (DCT); Reichert(R) ocular response analyser (ORA); and Tono-Pen(R) XL. CCT was then measured using a hand-held ultrasonic pachymeter. CH and CRF were derived from the air pressure to corneal reflectance relationship of the ORA data. Results: Compared to the GAT, the Tonopen and ORA Goldmann equivalent (IOPg) and corneal compensated (IOPcc) measured higher IOP readings (F=19.351, p<0.001), particularly in NTG (F=12.604, p<0.001). DCT was closest to Goldmann IOP and had the lowest variance. CCT was significantly different (F=8.305, p<0.001) between the 3 conditions as was CH (F=6.854, p=0.002) and CRF (F=19.653, p<0.001). IOPcc measures were not affected by CCT. The DCT was generally not affected by corneal biomechanical factors. Conclusion: This study suggests that as the true pressure of the eye cannot be determined non-invasively, measurements from any tonometer should be interpreted with care, particularly when alterations in the corneal tissue are suspected.

A variational method and approximations of a Cauchy problem for elliptic equations

A Cauchy problem for general elliptic second-order linear partial differential equations in which the Dirichlet data in H½(?1 ? ?3) is assumed available on a larger part of the boundary ? of the bounded domain O than the boundary portion ?1 on which the Neumann data is prescribed, is investigated using a conjugate gradient method. We obtain an approximation to the solution of the Cauchy problem by minimizing a certain discrete functional and interpolating using the finite diference or boundary element method. The minimization involves solving equations obtained by discretising mixed boundary value problems for the same operator and its adjoint. It is proved that the solution of the discretised optimization problem converges to the continuous one, as the mesh size tends to zero. Numerical results are presented and discussed.

Application of finite element method and photo-elasticity to an lap welded connection

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Focus group method and methodology:current practice and recent debate

This paper considers the contemporary use of focus groups as a method of data collection within qualitative research settings. The authors draw upon their own experiences of using focus groups in educational and 'community' user-group environments in order to provide an overview of recent issues and debates surrounding the deployment of focus group methods and to pick out specific areas of contention in relation to both their epistemological and practical implications. Accordingly, the paper reflects on some of the realities of 'doing' focus groups whilst, at the same time, highlighting common problems and dilemmas which beginning researchers might encounter in their application. In turn, the paper raises a number of related issues around which there appears to have been a lack of academic discussion to date.

An Overview of Modelling Bulgarian Wildland Fire Behaviour by Application of a Mathematical Game Method and WRF-Fire Models

This paper presents the main achievements of the author’s PhD dissertation. The work is dedicated to mathematical and semi-empirical approaches applied to the case of Bulgarian wildland fires. After the introductory explanations, short information from every chapter is extracted to cover the main parts of the obtained results. The methods used are described in brief and main outcomes are listed. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): D.1.3, D.2.0, K.5.1.

Estimation of average annual daily traffic (AADT) using geographically weighted regression (GWR) method and geographic information system (GIS)

Annual average daily traffic (AADT) is important information for many transportation planning, design, operation, and maintenance activities, as well as for the allocation of highway funds. Many studies have attempted AADT estimation using factor approach, regression analysis, time series, and artificial neural networks. However, these methods are unable to account for spatially variable influence of independent variables on the dependent variable even though it is well known that to many transportation problems, including AADT estimation, spatial context is important. ^ In this study, applications of geographically weighted regression (GWR) methods to estimating AADT were investigated. The GWR based methods considered the influence of correlations among the variables over space and the spatially non-stationarity of the variables. A GWR model allows different relationships between the dependent and independent variables to exist at different points in space. In other words, model parameters vary from location to location and the locally linear regression parameters at a point are affected more by observations near that point than observations further away. ^ The study area was Broward County, Florida. Broward County lies on the Atlantic coast between Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties. In this study, a total of 67 variables were considered as potential AADT predictors, and six variables (lanes, speed, regional accessibility, direct access, density of roadway length, and density of seasonal household) were selected to develop the models. ^ To investigate the predictive powers of various AADT predictors over the space, the statistics including local r-square, local parameter estimates, and local errors were examined and mapped. The local variations in relationships among parameters were investigated, measured, and mapped to assess the usefulness of GWR methods. ^ The results indicated that the GWR models were able to better explain the variation in the data and to predict AADT with smaller errors than the ordinary linear regression models for the same dataset. Additionally, GWR was able to model the spatial non-stationarity in the data, i.e., the spatially varying relationship between AADT and predictors, which cannot be modeled in ordinary linear regression. ^