Participatory Surveillance and Mathematical Models in Epidemiologic Research: Successes and Challenges

Theoretical epidemiology aims to understand the dynamics of diseases in populations and communities. Biological and behavioral processes are abstracted into mathematical formulations which aim to reproduce epidemiological observations. In this thesis a new system for the self-reporting of syndromic data — Influenzanet — is introduced and assessed. The system is currently being extended to address greater challenges of monitoring the health and well-being of tropical communities.(...)

Mathematical and numerical methods for inverse problems using fundamental solutions techniques

Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia - SFRH/BD/27914/2006

The good, the bad and the ugly: The fall and resolution of Banco Espírito Santo

This case study – and accompanying teaching note – briefly describes the history of the Espírito Santo family, a banking dynasty who led one of Portugal’s leading economic and financial groups, along with its “crown jewel”, Banco Espírito Santo. It chronicles how the corporate governance issues at BES allowed the family to exploit the bank, its shareholders and its customers, so as to support its unprofitable non-financial businesses. This left the bank in a poor financial situation, which deteriorated beyond control, leaving regulators – whose actions are also analysed here – with no alternative, amidst a severe liquidity crisis, but to apply a resolution measure, pinning large losses on junior bondholders and shareholders before recapitalising the bank.

Leishmaniasis transmission: distribution and coarse-resolution ecology of two vectors and two parasites in Egypt

Introduction: In past decades, leishmaniasis burden has been low across Egypt; however, changing environment and land use has placed several parts of the country at risk. As a consequence, leishmaniasis has become a particularly difficult health problem, both for local inhabitants and for multinational military personnel. Methods: To evaluate coarse-resolution aspects of the ecology of leishmaniasis transmission, collection records for sandflies and Leishmania species were obtained from diverse sources. To characterize environmental variation across the country, we used multitemporal Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for 2005-2011. Ecological niche models were generated using MaxEnt, and results were analyzed using background similarity tests to assess whether associations among vectors and parasites (i.e., niche similarity) can be detected across broad geographic regions. Results: We found niche similarity only between one vector species and its corresponding parasite species (i.e., Phlebotomus papatasi with Leishmania major), suggesting that geographic ranges of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis and its potential vector may overlap, but under distinct environmental associations. Other associations (e.g., P. sergenti with L. major) were not supported. Mapping suitable areas for each species suggested that northeastern Egypt is particularly at risk because both parasites have potential to circulate. Conclusions: Ecological niche modeling approaches can be used as a first-pass assessment of vector-parasite interactions, offering useful insights into constraints on the geography of transmission patterns of leishmaniasis.

Persistent asthma in adults: comparison of high resolution computed tomography of the lungs after one year of follow-up

OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were to evaluate the role of high resolution computed tomography of the torax in detecting abnormalities in chronic asthmatic patients and to determine the behavior of these lesions after at least one year. METHOD: Fourteen persistent asthmatic patients with a mean forced expiratory volume in 1-second that was 63% of predicted and a mean forced expiratory volume in 1-second /forced vital capacity of 60% had two high resolution computed tomographys separated by an interval of at least one year. RESULTS: All 14 patients had abnormalities on both scans. The most common abnormality was bronchial wall thickening, which was present in all patients on both computed tomographys. Bronchiectasis was suggested on the first computed tomography in 5 of the 14 (36%) patients, but on follow-up, the bronchial dilatation had disappeared in 2 and diminished in a third. Only one patient had any emphysematous changes; a minimal persistent area of paraseptal emphysema was present on both scans. In 3 patients, a "mosaic" appearance was observed on the first scan, and this persisted on the follow-up computed tomography. Two patients had persistent areas of mucoid impaction. In a third patient, mucus plugging was detected only on the second computed tomography. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that there are many abnormalities on the high resolution computed tomography of patients with persistent asthma. Changes suggestive of bronchiectasis, namely bronchial dilatation, frequently resolve spontaneously. Therefore, the diagnosis of bronchiectasis by high resolution computed tomography in asthmatic patients must be made with caution, since bronchial dilatation can be reversible or can represent false dilatation. Nonsmoking chronic asthmatic subjects in this study had no evidence of centrilobular or panacinar emphysema.

Introducing mapping standards in the quality assessment of buildings extracted from very high resolution satellite imagery

Many municipal activities require updated large-scale maps that include both topographic and thematic information. For this purpose, the efficient use of very high spatial resolution (VHR) satellite imagery suggests the development of approaches that enable a timely discrimination, counting and delineation of urban elements according to legal technical specifications and quality standards. Therefore, the nature of this data source and expanding range of applications calls for objective methods and quantitative metrics to assess the quality of the extracted information which go beyond traditional thematic accuracy alone. The present work concerns the development and testing of a new approach for using technical mapping standards in the quality assessment of buildings automatically extracted from VHR satellite imagery. Feature extraction software was employed to map buildings present in a pansharpened QuickBird image of Lisbon. Quality assessment was exhaustive and involved comparisons of extracted features against a reference data set, introducing cartographic constraints from scales 1:1000, 1:5000, and 1:10,000. The spatial data quality elements subject to evaluation were: thematic (attribute) accuracy, completeness, and geometric quality assessed based on planimetric deviation from the reference map. Tests were developed and metrics analyzed considering thresholds and standards for the large mapping scales most frequently used by municipalities. Results show that values for completeness varied with mapping scales and were only slightly superior for scale 1:10,000. Concerning the geometric quality, a large percentage of extracted features met the strict topographic standards of planimetric deviation for scale 1:10,000, while no buildings were compliant with the specification for scale 1:1000.

Otimização com restrições de complementaridade: algoritmos e aplicações

Tese de Doutoramento em Engenharia Industrial e de Sistemas (PDEIS)

Bases de Gröbner e geração de exercícios matemáticos com estrutura não determinada

Definido um enredo concreto, há, frequentemente, uma grande quantidade e variedade de exercícios que sobre ele podemos escrever. Neste artigo, apresenta-se um algoritmo que permite automatizar este processo. Para gerar exercícios matemáticos, parte-se das relações entre as variáveis presentes no enredo, calcula-se os possíveis exercícios, analisa-se a complexidade do seu processo de resolução e a sua viabilidade. O algoritmo recorre a bases de Gröbner para determinar se o exercício é resolúvel e um possível caminho de resolução. Com base na análise dos resultados obtidos, torna-se possível criar uma base de exercícios ligada a esse enredo.

Evaluation of geostatistical techniques to estimate the spatial distribution of aboveground biomass in the Amazon rainforest using high-resolution remote sensing data

ABSTRACT The spatial distribution of forest biomass in the Amazon is heterogeneous with a temporal and spatial variation, especially in relation to the different vegetation types of this biome. Biomass estimated in this region varies significantly depending on the applied approach and the data set used for modeling it. In this context, this study aimed to evaluate three different geostatistical techniques to estimate the spatial distribution of aboveground biomass (AGB). The selected techniques were: 1) ordinary least-squares regression (OLS), 2) geographically weighted regression (GWR) and, 3) geographically weighted regression - kriging (GWR-K). These techniques were applied to the same field dataset, using the same environmental variables derived from cartographic information and high-resolution remote sensing data (RapidEye). This study was developed in the Amazon rainforest from Sucumbíos - Ecuador. The results of this study showed that the GWR-K, a hybrid technique, provided statistically satisfactory estimates with the lowest prediction error compared to the other two techniques. Furthermore, we observed that 75% of the AGB was explained by the combination of remote sensing data and environmental variables, where the forest types are the most important variable for estimating AGB. It should be noted that while the use of high-resolution images significantly improves the estimation of the spatial distribution of AGB, the processing of this information requires high computational demand.

Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change projections

ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

Controlled resolution reconstruction of one-dimensional permittivity profiles

Electromagnetic scattering inverse problems, microwave imaging, reconstruction of dielectric media, remote sensing, tomography

Wideband impedance spectrum analyzer with arbitry fine frequency resolution for in situ sensor applications

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Elektrotechnik und Informationstechnik, Diss., 2009

Analysis of the European Union's performance as an international mediator in the South Caucasus with respect to peace building in the region : ENP and conflict resolution in the South Caucasus

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Geistes-, Sozial- und Erziehungswiss., Diss., 2009

Mathematical and numerical analysis for coagulation-fragmentation equations

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2010