Use of the ratio plot in capture-recapture estimation

Statistical graphics are a fundamental, yet often overlooked, set of components in the repertoire of data analytic tools. Graphs are quick and efficient, yet simple instruments of preliminary exploration of a dataset to understand its structure and to provide insight into influential aspects of inference such as departures from assumptions and latent patterns. In this paper, we present and assess a graphical device for choosing a method for estimating population size in capture-recapture studies of closed populations. The basic concept is derived from a homogeneous Poisson distribution where the ratios of neighboring Poisson probabilities multiplied by the value of the larger neighbor count are constant. This property extends to the zero-truncated Poisson distribution which is of fundamental importance in capture–recapture studies. In practice however, this distributional property is often violated. The graphical device developed here, the ratio plot, can be used for assessing specific departures from a Poisson distribution. For example, simple contaminations of an otherwise homogeneous Poisson model can be easily detected and a robust estimator for the population size can be suggested. Several robust estimators are developed and a simulation study is provided to give some guidance on which should be used in practice. More systematic departures can also easily be detected using the ratio plot. In this paper, the focus is on Gamma mixtures of the Poisson distribution which leads to a linear pattern (called structured heterogeneity) in the ratio plot. More generally, the paper shows that the ratio plot is monotone for arbitrary mixtures of power series densities.

Asymmetric output gap effects in Phillips Curve and mark-up pricing models: evidence for the US and the UK

A number of studies have found an asymmetric response of consumer price index inflation to the output gap in the US in simple Phillips curve models. We consider whether there are similar asymmetries in mark-up pricing models, that is, whether the mark-up over producers' costs also depends upon the sign of the (adjusted) output gap. The robustness of our findings to the price series is assessed, and also whether price-output responses in the UK are asymmetric.

Mark Casson: the Entrepreneur at 30 -continued relevance?

Mark Casson's The Entrepreneur: An Economic Theory (1982) has become one of the most influential books in the field of entrepreneurship. For the first time, this article outlines its origins and summarizes its main themes. The article goes on to show how Casson's subsequent research has closely followed the research agenda he set for himself in The Entrepreneur and illustrates the continuing challenge his work presents to entrepreneurship scholars. The article is based on an interview the authors conducted with Mark Casson on the thirtieth anniversary of the book's publication. Copyright © 2014 Strategic Management Society.

Mushrooms and taphonomy: the fungi that mark woodland graves

Two closely related chemoecological groups of fungi, the ammonia fungi and the postputrefaction fungi, have been associated with the decomposition by-products of cadavers. Sporocarps have been observed in disparate woodlands across the world and often mark sites of graves. These groups of fungi provide visible markers of the sites of cadaver decomposition and follow repeated patterns of successional change as apparent decomposition proceeds. We suggest these phenomena may become a useful tool for crime scene investigation, forensic archaeology and forensic taphonomy.

Survival, Population Size, and Gonotrophic Cycle Duration of Nyssomyia neivai (Diptera: Psychodidae) at an Endemic Area of American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Southeastern Brazil

The survival, absolute population size, gonotrophic cycle duration, and temporal and spatial abundance of Nyssomyia neivai (Pinto) were studied in a rural area endemic for American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) in Conchal, Sao Paulo State, southeastern Brazil, using mark-release-recapture techniques and by monitoring population fluctuation. The monthly abundance exhibited a unimodal pattern, with forest and domicile habitats having the highest relative abundances. A total of 1,873 males and 3,557 females were marked and released during the six experiments, of which 4.1-13.0% of males and 4.1-11.8% of females were recaptured. Daily survivorship estimated from the decline in recaptures per day was 0.681 for males and 0.667 for females. Gonotrophic cycle duration was estimated to be 4.0 d. Absolute population size was calculated using the Lincoln Index and ranged from 861 to 4,612 males and from 2,187 to 19,739 females. The low proportion of females that reach the age when they are potentially infective suggests that N. neivai has a low biological capacity to serve as a vector and that factors such as high biting rates and opportunistic feeding behavior would be needed to enable Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis Vianna transmission. This agreed with the epidemiological pattern of ACL in southeastern Brazil that is characterized by low incidence, with isolated cases acquired principally within domiciliary habitats.

Density and survival rate of Culex quinquefasciatus at Parque Ecologico do Tiete, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Parity rate, gonotrophic cycle length, and density of a Culex quinquefasciatus female population was estimated at the Parque Ecologico do Tiete (PET), Sao Paulo, Brazil. Adult Cx. quinquefasciatus females were collected from vegetation along the edges of a polluted drainage canal with the use of a battery-powered backpack aspirator from September to November 2005 and from February to April 2006. We examined 255 Cx. quinquefasciatus ovaries to establish the parity rate of 0.22 and determined the gonotrophic cycle length under laboratory conditions to be 3 and 4 days. From these data, we calculated the Cx. quinquefasciatus survival rate to be 0.60 and 0.68 per day. Density of the Cx. quinquefasciatus female (5.71 females per m(2)) was estimated based on a population size of 28,810 individuals divided by the sampled area of 5,040 m(2). Results of all experiments indicate medium survivorship and high density of the Cx. quinquefasciatus female population. This species is epidemiologically relevant in the PET area and should be a target of the vector control program of Sao Paulo municipality.

Ståndortsindex och produktion för björk och gran på samma mark

På 11 lokaler där björk och gran vuxit i bestånd intill varandra på likartad mark uppskattades ståndortsindex (SI) för gran och björk med hjälp av brösthöjdsålder och höjd på övrehöjdsträd. På 22 lokaler (11 verkliga, 11 simulerade) uppskattades SI för gran och björk med hjälp av ståndortsegenskaper. Sambandet mellan SI för gran och för vårtbjörk sammanfattas i en tabell där SI G24 motsvarar B23 och SI G36 motsvarar B26. Marker där vårtbjörken kan konkurrera med granen i produktion bör vara friska lågörttyper med markvattenklass S eller K. Hög höjd över havet och nordliga breddgrader har också mer negativ påverkan på björkens än på granens tillväxt. På breddgrad 60-61 ºN  upp till 100 m över havet uppskattas då SI för björk till B24-26 och för gran till G25-27. På de lägre boniteterna (B23/G24) beräknas volymsproduktionen vara likvärdig för vårtbjörk och gran, medan på de högre boniteterna (B26/G36) beräknas granens medelvolyms-produktion vara upp mot dubbelt så hög som för vårtbjörk. Vårtbjörkens torrsubstansproduktion beräknas däremot överstiga den för gran på de lägre boniteterna och uppgå till ca 80% av granens torrsubstansproduktion på de högre boniteterna.  Materialet i studien är begränsat och försiktighet bör iakttagas vid generaliseringar.

O Impacto da Abertura Comercial Sobre Mark-Up e Produtividade Industrial Brasileira

Rio de Janeiro