A ship run aground Deepening problems in the Ukrainian economy. OSW Commentary Number 173, 16 June 2015

The drop in Ukraine’s GDP by nearly 18% in the first three months of 2015 (versus the corresponding period in 2014) has confirmed the decline of the country’s economy. Over the last 14 months, the Ukrainian currency was subject to an almost threefold devaluation against the US dollar, and in April 2015 the inflation rate was 61% (year-on-year), which exacerbated the impoverishment of the general public and weakened domestic demand. The main reason behind the crisis has been the destruction of heavy industry and infrastructure in the war-torn Donbas region, over which Kyiv no longer has control, as well as a sharp decline in foreign trade (by 24% in 2014 and by 34% in the first quarter of 2015), recorded primarily in trading volume with Ukraine’s major trade partner, i.e. Russia (a drop of 43%). The conflict has also had a negative impact on the production figures for the two key sectors of the Ukrainian economy: agriculture and metallurgy, which account for approximately 50% of Ukrainian exports. The government’s response to the crisis has primarily been a reduction in the costs of financing the Donbas and an increase in the financial burden placed on the citizens and companies of Ukraine. No radical reforms which would encompass the entire system, including anti-corruption reforms, have been carried out to stop the embezzlement of state funds and to facilitate business activity. The reasons for not initiating reforms have included the lack of will to launch them, Ukraine’s traditionally slow pace of bureaucratic action and growing dissonance among the parties making up the parliamentary coalition. The few positive changes, including marketisation of energy prices and sustaining budgetary discipline (in the first quarter of 2015, budgetary revenues grew by 25%, though partly as a result of currency devaluation), are being carried out under pressure from the International Monetary Fund, which is making the payment of further loan instalments to the tune of US$ 17.5 billion conditional upon reforms. Despite assistance granted by Western institutional donors and by individual states, the risk of Ukraine going bankrupt remains real. The issue of restructuring foreign debt worth US$ 15 billion has not been resolved, as foreign creditors who hold Ukrainian bonds have not consented to any partial cancellation of the debt. Whether Ukraine’s public finances can be stabilised will depend mainly on the situation in the east of the country and on the possible renewal of military action. It seems that the only way to rescue Ukraine’s public finances from deteriorating further is to continue to ‘freeze’ the conflict, to gradually implement wide-ranging reforms and to reach a consensus in negotiations with lenders.

Innovations of the European Central Bank in the Context of Financial and Monetary Integration: A Chinese Assessment. ZEI Discussion Paper C229, 2015

In the 15 years since the introduction of the Euro, the integration process within the European Economic and Monetary Union has seen rapid development in terms of both breadth and depth. Exclusively responsible for the monetary policy of the Eurozone, the European Central Bank has continued to adjust to meet the challenges brought about by these changes. The paper explores financial and monetary integration in the Eurozone and reviews the reasons, specific performance and impact of changes in the European Central Bank’s decision-making mechanisms. The purpose of which is to deepen and expand understanding in academic circles of the European economy and the European Economic and Monetary Union, as well as their development trends.

Explaining variations in the knowledge economy in three small wealthy countries

At a broad level, it has been shown that different institutional contexts, policy regimes and business systems affect the kinds of activities in which a nation specialises. This paper is concerned with the way in which different national business systems affect the nature of participation of a nation in the knowledge economy. The paper seeks to explain cross-national variations in the knowledge economy in the Australia, Denmark and Sweden with reference to dominant characteristics of the business system. Although Australia, Denmark and Sweden are all small wealthy countries, they each have quite distinctive business systems. Australia has been regarded as a variant of the competitive business system and has generally been described as an entrepreneurial economy with a large small firm population. In contrast Sweden has a coordinated business system that has favoured large industrial firms. The Danish variant of the coordinated model, with its well-developed vocational training system, is distinguishable by its large population of networked small and medium size enterprises. The three countries also differ significantly on two dimensions of participation in the knowledge economy. First, there is cross-national variation in patterns of specialisation in knowledge intensive industries and services. Second, the institutional infrastructure of the knowledge economy (or the existing stock of knowledge and competence in the economy, the potential for generation and diffusion a new knowledge and the capacity for commercialisation of new ideas) differs across the three countries. This paper seeks to explain variations in these two dimensions of the knowledge economy with reference to characteristics of the business system in the three countries.

Employment outcomes and plant closure in a post-industrial city:an analysis of the labour market studies of MG Rover workers three years on

This paper examines how the loss of 6300 jobs from the closure of MG Rover (MGR) in the city of Birmingham (UK) in April 2005 affected the employment trajectories of ex-workers, in the context of wider structural change and efforts at urban renewal. The paper presents an analysis of a longitudinal survey of 300 ex-MGR workers, and examines to what extent the state of local labour markets and workers’ geographical mobility—as well as the effectiveness of the immediate policy response and longer-term local economic strategies—may have helped to balance the impacts of personal attributes associated with workers’ employability and their reabsorption into the labour markets. It is found that the relative buoyancy of the local economy, the success of longer-run efforts at diversification and a strong policy response and retraining initiative helped many disadvantaged workers to find new jobs in the medium term. However, the paper also highlights the unequal employment outcomes and trajectories that many lesser-skilled workers faced. It explores the policy issues arising from such closures and their aftermath, such as the need to co-ordinate responses, to retain institutional capacity, to offer high-quality training and education resources to workers and, where possible, to slow down such closure processes to enable skills to be retained and reused within the local economy.

Entrepreneurial profile of the UK in the light of the Global Entrepreneurship and Development Index

In this research summary, we provide a novel look into the entrepreneurial profile of the UK in an international context. We use a new method – the Global Entrepreneurship and Development Index GEDI – to identify the entrepreneurial strengths and weaknesses of the UK economy, as well as to identify potential bottlenecks that hold back the performance of the UK relative to other advanced economies. We perform a Penalty for Bottleneck analysis to identify the bottlenecks in the UK's entrepreneurial profile. We also explore optimal resource allocation for UK's policy for National Systems of Entrepreneurship.

Impact assessment of increasing the 20% Greenhouse gas reduction target of the EU for Hungary (executive summary)

This study has the objective to analyse the impacts on the Hungarian economy of a higher EU GHG (greenhouse gas) reduction undertaking for 2020, namely increasing the GHG reduction target to 20% and to 30% relative to 1990. In order to achieve this objective, we quantify the costs/benefits of these increased undertakings for the various sectors of the Hungarian economy.

Employment and the Social Economy. EU Funding Opportunities for Developing Human Resources

The paper examines the role of EU cohesion policy in the field of human resources development and improving conditions for employment. The main objective of the analysis is to present a comprehensive picture about funding opportunities in connection with financing the activities of organisations of the social economy. As a background, the study stresses that the success of the European integration process depends to a great extent on the strength of economic and social cohesion between EU member states and regions. In order to create conditions for sustainable and balanced growth with social inclusion, there is a need to enhance the competitiveness of less developed regions combating the difficulties of structural change, and to improve their development prospects. To achieve this aim, one of the most important fields is to improve human resources. The paper points out, that EU cohesion policy has a crucial role in reducing disparities. After a general introduction to the EU level regional policy funding, the study focuses on the activities supported by the European Social Fund (ESF). The next part of the study deals with the possible types of the social economy projects and problems of self-financing. The author emphasises that social innovation emerges where State and markets fail to deliver for society (theory of non-profit/third sector) but not just to fix or replace them. The author concludes that these projects require state subsidies (official grants) at the beginning, but at the same time they can generate income. In this respect they follow same economic goals as other market actors, however, the crucial difference is that their main goal is not to make high profits for the owners. In the last part, as a concrete case study, the paper concentrates on the priorities of the Hungarian development plan in relation to social renewal. The author explains the priorities and fields of interventions of the social renewal programme. Finally, the chapter deals with the recent changes in the Hungarian employment policy and related measures supported by the European Social Fund. The chapter concludes that several employment programmes, projects for the development of social economy and programmes assisting the spreading of voluntariness and the training of volunteers have been launched with the co-financing of ESF.

A rejtett gazdaság és az ellene való fellépés tényezői = The hidden economy and the factors involved in combating it

A szerzők közgazdasági modellek áttekintése segítségével elemzik a rejtett gazdaságban való részvétel tényezőit. Bemutatják, hogy a haszonmaximáló cselekvők a rejtett gazdaság egyes megjelenési formáival kapcsolatos döntésük meghozatala során (például adócsalás esetében) számot vetnek a rejtett gazdaságban való részvétel, illetve az attól való tartózkodás költségeivel és hasznaival. A tanulmány az adócsalás társadalmilag optimális szintjének meghatározásával foglalkozik a rejtett gazdasággal szembeni kormányzati lépések egyes típusaival, ezek hatásaival és a rejtett gazdasággal szembeni optimális kormányzati politika lehetőségeivel. _______ The authors analyse the factors behind participation in the hidden economy, through a review of the models of economic theory. They show that those seeking to maximize profits weigh various forms of the hidden economy (tax evasion, for instance), in the search for the optimum solution, calculate the costs and benefits of participating in the hidden economy or refraining from doing so. Taking the ‘socially optimum level’ of tax evasion, the study covers the various types of government measures that can be taken against the hidden economy, the effects of them, and the scope for an optimum government policy to combat the hidden economy.

Effects of the current financial and economic crisis on the rural landscape as well as the agri-food sector in Europe and Central Asia

This paper reviews the expected effects of the current financial crisis and subsequent recession on the rural landscape, in particular the agri-food sector in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) on the basis of the structure of the rural economy and of different organisations and institutions. Empirical evidence suggests that the crisis has hit the ECA region the hardest. Agriculture contributes about 9% to gross domestic product (GDP) for the ECA region as a whole with 16% of the population being employed in the agricultural sector. As far as the impact of the financial crisis on the agri-food sector is concerned, there are a few interconnected issues: (1) reduction in income elastic food demand and commodity price decline, (2) loss of employment and earnings of rural people working in urban centres, implying also costly labour reallocation, (3) rising rural poverty originating mainly from lack of opportunities in the non-farm sector and a sizable decline of international remittances, (4) tightening of agricultural credit markets, and the (5) collapse of sectoral government support programs and social safety-net measures in many countries. The paper reveals how the crisis hit farming and broader agri-business differently in general and in the ECA sub-regions.

How to map the diversity of the audiovisual industry in the digital era. A Methodological Proposition

This article presents a methodological proposition to map the diversity of the audiovisual industry in the digital scenario by portraying the most important interactions between those who create, produce, distribute and disseminate audiovisual productions on line, paying special attention to powerful intermediaries and to small and medium independent agents. Taking as a point of departure a flexible understanding of social network analysis, the aim is to understand the structure of the audiovisual industry on the internet so that, taking into consideration a given sector, agents, their relations and the networks they give place to – as well as the structural conditions under which they operate – are studied. The aim is to answer questions such as: what is mapping, what is of interesting to map, how can it be done and what advantages and disadvantages the results will present.

A Monthly Volatility Index for the US Economy

We estimate the monthly volatility of the US economy from 1968 to 2006 by extending the coincidentindex model of Stock and Watson (1991). Our volatility index, which we call VOLINX, hasfour applications. First, it sheds light on the Great Moderation. VOLINX captures the decrease in thevolatility in the mid-80s as well as the different episodes of stress over the sample period. In the 70sand early 80s the stagflation and the two oil crises marked the pace of the volatility whereas 09/11 is themost relevant shock after the moderation. Second, it helps to understand the economic indicators thatcause volatility. While the main determinant of the coincident index is industrial production, VOLINXis mainly affected by employment and income. Third, it adapts the confidence bands of the forecasts.In and out-of-sample evaluations show that the confidence bands may differ up to 50% with respect to amodel with constant variance. Last, the methodology we use permits us to estimate monthly GDP, whichhas conditional volatility that is partly explained by VOLINX. These applications can be used by policymakers for monitoring and surveillance of the stress of the economy.

Les entreprises multinationales et les politiques publiques ; enquête sur leur engagement institutionnel au Canada

Cette thèse s’inscrit au cœur du chantier de réflexion sur l’interaction entre les États et les entreprises multinationales qui s’impose dans le contexte de l’accélération actuelle du processus de mondialisation de l’économie capitaliste. Nous l’abordons sous l’angle plus particulier des multinationales et de leur engagement institutionnel au sein des organisations, associations, forums ou réseaux qui contribuent à la définition et parfois même à la gestion des différentes politiques publiques orientées vers le développement économique, l’innovation et le marché du travail. Quelles sont les différentes facettes de l’engagement institutionnel des filiales de multinationales au Canada ? Comment ces comportements peuvent-ils être influencés par les différentes caractéristiques et stratégies de ces entreprises ? Un modèle théorique large, empruntant des hypothèses aux nombreuses approches théoriques s’intéressant aux comportements généraux des multinationales, est testé à l’aide d’analyses quantitatives de données obtenues dans le cadre d’une enquête auprès des multinationales au Canada associée au projet international INTREPID. D’abord, cette thèse permet une opérationnalisation plus précise du concept d’« imbrication de la firme » à travers la notion d’engagement institutionnel. Elle met en évidence les différentes dimensions de ce phénomène et remet en question la vision « essentiellement » positive qui l’entoure. Les résultats de cette thèse viennent questionner de la centralité des approches macro-institutionnalistes, particulièrement celle associée aux Variétés du capitalisme, dans les études sur les multinationales. Ils réaffirment par contre l’importance des différentes approches économiques et démontrent plus particulièrement la pertinence de la théorie de la dépendance aux ressources et l’impact de la présence d’un acteur structuré venant faire le contrepoids aux gestionnaires. Malgré nos efforts de théorisation, nous sommes incapable d’observer un effet modérateur des facteurs stratégiques sur l’impact du pays d’origine dans la détermination de l’engagement institutionnel. Cette thèse offre des indications permettant de cibler les interventions institutionnelles qui cherchent à « attacher » les multinationales à l’économie canadienne. Elle met aussi en évidence la contribution d’acteurs indirects dans la consolidation des relations d’engagement institutionnel et plus particulièrement le rôle positif que peuvent jouer les syndicats dans certains forums ou réseaux.

A consolidação da social democracia no Brasil: forma tardia de dominação burguesa nos marcos do capitalismo de extração prussiano-colonial

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

La problemática del agro en la perspectiva de Aldo Ferrer : Una reevaluación del discurso político de 'La Economía Argentina' y la práctica histórica durante la apertura nacionalista (1970-1971)

La actualidad que tienen los estudios historiográficos sobre las cuestiones del agro argentino en el siglo XX y el crecimiento de trabajos de investigación y de balances sobre dicha producción generan un contexto propicio para la reevaluación crítica de los aportes que se han hecho a la historia del agro argentino desde la perspectiva cepalina, mas específicamente aquella expresada en la amplia producción del economista Aldo Ferrer: su explicación de la problemática agraria desde el análisis de las debilidades internas del sistema productivo argentino y las falencias básicas del funcionamiento de la economía capitalista constituye un discurso en perspectiva histórica que manifiesta las representaciones identitarias que los sectores capitalistas nacionales tenían del agro argentino a fines de la década del sesenta. El análisis de su clásica obra La Economía Argentina (1963) permite argumentar que en su abordaje teórico y metodológico del desarrollo económico argentino la cuestión agraria ocupa el centro de los problemas que han aquejado al sistema productivo argentino durante todo el siglo XX y especialmente durante la etapa denominada de "apertura nacionalista" (1970-1971) en la cual el autor tuvo una activa participación política como Ministro de Economía de la Nación Argentina.

La problemática del agro en la perspectiva de Aldo Ferrer : Una reevaluación del discurso político de 'La Economía Argentina' y la práctica histórica durante la apertura nacionalista (1970-1971)

La actualidad que tienen los estudios historiográficos sobre las cuestiones del agro argentino en el siglo XX y el crecimiento de trabajos de investigación y de balances sobre dicha producción generan un contexto propicio para la reevaluación crítica de los aportes que se han hecho a la historia del agro argentino desde la perspectiva cepalina, mas específicamente aquella expresada en la amplia producción del economista Aldo Ferrer: su explicación de la problemática agraria desde el análisis de las debilidades internas del sistema productivo argentino y las falencias básicas del funcionamiento de la economía capitalista constituye un discurso en perspectiva histórica que manifiesta las representaciones identitarias que los sectores capitalistas nacionales tenían del agro argentino a fines de la década del sesenta. El análisis de su clásica obra La Economía Argentina (1963) permite argumentar que en su abordaje teórico y metodológico del desarrollo económico argentino la cuestión agraria ocupa el centro de los problemas que han aquejado al sistema productivo argentino durante todo el siglo XX y especialmente durante la etapa denominada de "apertura nacionalista" (1970-1971) en la cual el autor tuvo una activa participación política como Ministro de Economía de la Nación Argentina.