Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Crop rotation in center-pivot for phytonematode control: density variation, pathogenicity and crop loss estimation

Crop rotation in center-pivot for phytonematode control: density variation, pathogenicity and crop loss estimation A field study conducted over three consecutive years, on a farm using crop rotation system under center-pivot and infested with the nematodes Pratylenchus brachyurus, P. zeae, Meloidogyne incognita, Paratrichodorus minor, Helicotylenchus dihystera, Mesocriconema ornata and M. onoense, demonstrated that intensive crop systems provide conditions for the maintenance of high densities of polyphagous phytonematodes. Of the crops established on the farm (cotton, maize, soybean and cowpea), cotton and soybean suffered the most severe crop losses, caused respectively by M. incognita and P. brachyurus. Since maize is a good host for both nematodes, but tolerant of M. incognita, its exclusion from cropping system would be favorable to the performance of cotton, soybean and cowpea. Results from experiments carried out in controlled conditions confirmed the pathogenicity of P. brachyurus on cotton. Additional management with genetic resistance was useful in fields infested with M. incognita, although the soybean performance was affected by low resistance of the cultivars used for P. brachyurus. In conclusion, crop rotation must be carefully planned in areas infested with polyphagous nematodes, specifically in the case of occurrence of two or more major pathogenic nematodes.

Host suitability of oats for Pratylenchus brachyurus

Host suitability of oats for Pratylenchus brachyurus Black oat (Avena strigosa), white oat (A. sativa) and Algerian oat (A. byzantina) are extensively cultivated in the south of Brazil for grain, forage, hay and silage production, or as cover crop in no-tillage and crop-pasture integration systems. In both systems, the genotypes of oat used as cover crop must be nonhosts or poor hosts of damaging nematodes for summer cash crops. Taking into account the relevance of Pratylenchus brachyurus as a pathogen for many cash crops in Brazil, two experiments were carried out in a glasshouse in order to evaluate the host suitability of selected oat cultivars to this nematode. The initial population inoculated (Pi) were 92 specimens/plot in experiment 1, and 270 in experiment 2. At the end of experimental periods (86 days after inoculation in experiment 1 and 67 days in experiment 2), the final population (Pf) of P. brachyurus was estimated and the reproductive factor (RF = Pf/Pi) was calculated. The results demonstrated that black oat (RF = 0.04-1.03) is more valuable than Algerian oat (RF = 2.63-2.88) or white oat (RF = 1.37-1.93) for the management of P. brachyurus.

FtsH2 and FtsH5: two homologous subunits use different integration mechanisms leading to the same thylakoid multimeric complex

P>The Arabidopsis thylakoid FtsH protease complex is composed of FtsH1/FtsH5 (type A) and FtsH2/FtsH8 (type B) subunits. Type A and type B subunits display a high degree of sequence identity throughout their mature domains, but no similarity in their amino-terminal targeting peptide regions. In chloroplast import assays, FtsH2 and FtsH5 were imported and subsequently integrated into thylakoids by a two-step processing mechanism that resulted in an amino-proximal lumenal domain, a single transmembrane anchor, and a carboxyl proximal stromal domain. FtsH2 integration into washed thylakoids was entirely dependent on the proton gradient, whereas FtsH5 integration was dependent on NTPs, suggesting their integration by Tat and Sec pathways, respectively. This finding was corroborated by in organello competition and by antibody inhibition experiments. A series of constructs were made in order to understand the molecular basis for different integration pathways. The amino proximal domains through the transmembrane anchors were sufficient for proper integration as demonstrated with carboxyl-truncated versions of FtsH2 and FtsH5. The mature FtsH2 protein was found to be incompatible with the Sec machinery as determined with targeting peptide-swapping experiments. Incompatibility does not appear to be determined by any specific element in the FtsH2 domain as no single domain was incompatible with Sec transport. This suggests an incompatible structure that requires the intact FtsH2. That the highly homologous type A and type B subunits of the same multimeric complex use different integration pathways is a striking example of the notion that membrane insertion pathways have evolved to accommodate structural features of their respective substrates.

Water use and crop coefficient for hybrid DKB 390

Water use and crop coefficient for hybrid DKB 390. This work aims to characterize the water use of maize hybrid DKB 390 under suitable conditions of irrigation for both sufficient and below-optimal situations of nitrogen supply. Crop coefficient values for different stages are also presented as a result, in order to provide the basis for crop water budget and management throughout the cycle. A field experiment was carried Out during the main season, in which biomass, soil moisture, leaf area, climate data and light transmittance were evaluated. These have allowed deriving water balance, use and efficiency. The mentioned genotype requires around 600 nun for high yield targets, being less efficient when led under below-optimal nitrogen fertilization.

Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics in an Oxisol as Affected by Liming and Crop Residues under No-Till

The short-term effects of surface lime application and black oat (Avena strigosa Schreb.) residues, with or without N fertilization, were evaluated in a long-term no-till (NT) system on a sandy clay loam, a kaolinitic, thermic Typic Hapludox from the state of Parana, Brazil. The main plot treatments were: control and dolomitic lime applied on soil surface at 8 Mg ha(-1). Three treatments with crop residues were evaluated on the subplots: (i) fallow, (ii) black oat residues, and (iii) black oat residues aft er N fertilization at 180 kg ha(-1). Black oat dry biomass was not affected by the treatments during 3 yr. Surface liming increased soil pH, microbial biomass, microbial activity, and bacterial/fungal ratio at the soil surface (0-5 cm), resulting in increased amino acid turnover, water-soluble humic substances formation, and N mineralization and nitrification. While the application of black oat did increase the soil pH, overall it had much less effect on soil biological processes and C and N pools than did lime. We concluded that black oat cannot replace the need for lime to optimize crop production in these tropical NT systems. In the long term, however, black oat should aid in the amelioration of acidity and replenishment of soil organic C pools and should help reduce erosion. Overall, this study suggests that overapplication of inorganic fertilizer N may occur in some tropical NT systems. Further experiments are required in NT systems to investigate the use of slow-release N fertilizers in combination with lime and black oat as a mechanism to reduce acidification and promote sustainability.

Evapotranspiration and crop coefficients of seedless watermelon

The research was developed in Fortaleza, CE (latitude 3 degrees 43`S, longitude of 38 degrees 32`W and altitude of 19.5 m). It aimed to determine the Evapotranspiration and the crop coefficients for the different stadiums of seedless watermelon (Citrullus lanatus, Schrad), using the water balance method in drainage lysimeter. The experimental unit consisted of four located drainage lysimeter in an area of 600 m(2). The culture Evapotranspiration (ETc) was determined by the method of the water balance, in a volume of soil control with depth of 0.45 m, whose humidity was monitored by tensiometers. The reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) was estimated by the method of the class A pan. The crop coefficients were obtained from the rate between ETc and ETo in the different stages. The ETc presented growing values from the vegetative stage to the fruiting stage, dropping straight away in the mature stage. The maximum value of kc was observed in the fruiting stage.

Biochemistry of the Envenomation Response-a Generator Theme for Interdisciplinary Integration

The understanding of complex physiological processes requires information from many different areas of knowledge. To meet this interdisciplinary scenario, the ability of integrating and articulating information is demanded. The difficulty of such approach arises because, more often than not, information is fragmented through under graduation education in Health Sciences. Shifting from a fragmentary and deep view of many topics to joining them horizontally in a global view is not a trivial task for teachers to implement. To attain that objective we proposed a course herein described Biochemistry of the envenomation response aimed at integrating previous contents of Health Sciences courses, following international recommendations of interdisciplinary model. The contents were organized by modules with increasing topic complexity. The full understanding of the envenoming pathophysiology of each module would be attained by the integration of knowledge from different disciplines. Active-learning strategy was employed focusing concept map drawing. Evaluation was obtained by a 30-item Likert-type survey answered by ninety students; 84% of the students considered that the number of relations that they were able to establish as seen by concept maps increased throughout the course. Similarly, 98% considered that both the theme and the strategy adopted in the course contributed to develop an interdisciplinary view.

A correct enthalpy relationship as thermal comfort index for livestock

Researchers working with thermal comfort have been using enthalpy to measure thermal energy inside rural facilities, establishing indicator values for many situations of thermal comfort and heat stress. This variable turned out to be helpful in analyzing thermal exchange in livestock systems. The animals are exposed to an environment which is decisive for the thermoregulatory process, and, consequently, the reactions reflect states of thermal comfort or heat stress, the last being responsable for problems of sanity, behavior and productivity. There are researchers using enthalpy as a qualitative indicator of thermal environment of livestock such as poultry, cattle and hogs in tropical regions. This preliminary work intends to check different enthalpy equations using information from classical thermodynamics, and proposes a direct equation as thermal comfort index for livestock systems.