Trend following performance with size and liquidity: evidence from US, Brazil and Portugal

Neste trabalho, eu analiso a eficiência de se aplicar estratégias que identificam tendências em mercados de capitais, em três países diferentes, usando um conjunto de variáveis macroeconómicas. Em cada país, a estratégia é testada contra os índices de grande capitalização, pequena capitalização e o índice principal. Eu concluo que, ao combinar os sinais diários obtidos pela estratégia, é possível alcançar retornos ajustados ao risco superiores e reduzir as perdas possíveis do portfólio. No geral, enfatizo os benefícios de usar estratégias que exploram tendências para investidores avessos ao risco, obtendo retornos característicos de capitais próprios com a volatilidade característica de obrigações.

Does liquidity constraints matter for Ricardian equivalence?

The paper analysis a general equilibrium model with two periods, several households and a government that has to finance some expenditures in the first period. Households may have some private information either about their type (adverse selection) or about some action levei chosen in the first period that affects the probability of certain states of nature in the second period (moral hazard). Trade of financiai assets are intermediated by a finite collection of banks. Banks objective functions are determined in equilibrium by shareholders. Due to private information it may be optimal for the banks to introduce constraints in the set of available portfolios for each household as wellas household specific asset prices. In particular, households may face distinct interest rates for holding the risk-free asset. The government finances its expenditures either by taxing households in the first period or by issuing bonds in the first period and taxing households in the second period. Taxes may be state-dependent. Suppose government policies are neutml: i) government policies do not affect the distribution of wealth across households; and ii) if the government decides to tax a household in the second period there is a portfolio available for the banks that generates the Mme payoff in each state of nature as the household taxes. Tben, Ricardian equivalence holds if and only if an appropriate boundary condition is satisfied. Moreover, at every free-entry equilibrium the boundary condition is satisfied and thus Ricardian equivalence holds. These results do not require any particular assumption on the banks' objective function. In particular, we do not assume banks to be risk neutral.

Banks, liquidity crises and economic growth

How do the liquidity functions of banks affect investment and growth at different stages of economic development? How do financial fragility and the costs of banking crises evolve with the level of wealth of countries? We analyze these issues using an overlapping generations growth model where agents, who experience idiosyncratic liquidity shocks, can invest in a liquid storage technology or in a partially illiquid Cobb Douglas technology. By pooling liquidity risk, banks play a growth enhancing role in reducing inefficient liquidation of long term projects, but they may face liquidity crises associated with severe output losses. We show that middle income economies may find optimal to be exposed to liquidity crises, while poor and rich economies have more incentives to develop a fully covered banking system. Therefore, middle income economies could experience banking crises in the process of their development and, as they get richer, they eventually converge to a financially safe long run steady state. Finally, the model replicates the empirical fact of higher costs of banking crises for middle income economies.

Liquidity proxies in the Brazilian debenture market

Este estudo analisa as variáveis de liquidez no mercado corporativo brasileiro de debêntures e testa a variável Eurobond para compreender quais características ajudam a prever a liquidez de debêntures. Embora os mercados de capitais brasileiros tenham melhorado drasticamente nos últimos anos, as grandes empresas brasileiras têm muitas opções na hora de tomar a decisão de aumentar capital (emissão de Eurobônus é um deles). Este estudo busca preencher uma lacuna na literatura acadêmica vendo se existe uma relação de liquidez entre os dois mercados. O proxy Eurobond foi encontrado significativo ao nível de 5% e o nível de 1%. Os outras proxies que foram significativos (valor de emissão, data de vencimento inicial, Avaliação) coincidem com os resultados de estudos anteriores.

Tangibilidade, classe de ativos e estrutura de capital das empresas listadas na BM&FBOVESPA

This study aims to investigate the influence of the asset class and the breakdown of tangibility as determinant factors of the capital structure of companies listed on the BM & FBOVESPA in the period of 2008-2012. Two current assets classes were composed and once they were grouped by liquidity, they were also analyzed by the financial institutions for credit granting: current resources (Cash, Bank and Financial Applications) and operations with duplicates (Stocks and Receivables). The breakdown of the tangible assets was made based on its main components provided as warrantees for loans like Machinery & Equipment and Land & Buildings. For an analysis extension, three metrics for leverage (accounting, financial and market) were applied and the sample was divided into economic sectors, adopted by BM&FBOVESPA. The data model in dynamic panel estimated by a systemic GMM of two levels was used in this study due its strength to problems of endogenous relationship as well as the omitted variables bias. The found results suggest that current resources are determinants of the capital structure possibly because they re characterized as proxies for financial solvency, being its relationship with debt positive. The sectorial analysis confirmed the results for current resources. The tangibility of assets has inverse proportional relationship with the leverage. As it is disintegrated in its main components, the significant and negative influence of machinery & equipment was more marked in the Industrial Goods sector. This result shows that, on average, the most specific assets from operating activities of a company compete for a less use of third party resources. As complementary results, it was observed that the leverage has persistence, which is linked with the static trade-off theory. Specifically for financial leverage, it was observed that the persistence is relevant when it is controlled for the lagged current assets classes variables. The proxy variable for growth opportunities, measured by the Market -to -Book, has the sign of its contradictory coefficient. The company size has a positive relationship with debt, in favor of static trade-off theory. Profitability is the most consistent variable in all the performed estimations, showing strong negative and significant relationship with leverage, as the pecking order theory predicts

Profitability measures of dairy cows

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2010

Includes bibliography

Liquidity black holes: why modern financial regulation in developed countries is making short-term capital flows to developing countries even more volatile

Includes bibliography

Argentina: Dissemination of genetically modified cotton and its impact on the profitability of small-scale farmers in the Chaco province

Includes bibliography

Science and technology, ICT and profitability in the manufacturing sector in Peru

Includes bibliography

Do demand and profitability stimulate capital accumulation? An analysis for Brazil

This article tests whether the profit share of gdp and capacity utilization affect capital accumulation in Brazil in the period 1950-2008 (in the sense of Granger causality). The methodology developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) is used to verify the Granger non-causality hypothesis. The results show that capacity utilization “Granger-causes” capital accumulation in the Brazilian economy and, also that the profit share of gdp does not “Granger-cause” the national investment-capital ratio. This corroborates the Kaleckian proposal based on the fundamental role of the accelerator, and suggests that the Brazilian economy can grow with either a concentration or a de-concentration of income, provided a suitable institutional arrangement is in place.

Definição de um modelo de análise de sucesso das empresas baseado em índices contábeis e na análise multivariada

The objective of this paper is to relate the set of financial ratios that are directly related to the success of public traded companies using a methodological approach and the method of multivariate principal component analysis. This study consists in the use of profitability ratios, debt and liquidity, to define the relationship between financial ratios with the best public traded companies listed in the magazine Exame Melhores e Maiores of 2013. Multivariate analysis was used to reduce the dimensionality of multivariate data, making linear combinations of the original variables (financial ratios) and express the data in principal components that result in new variables that contains much of the original data. As a result, we got the optimal number of five principal components, and both represent 95.6% of the original data. Among of all financial ratios, we can highlight the direct relationship between profitability ratios for the first principal component, and the direct relationship between the liquidity ratios, both inversely related with non-capital participation rates and degree indebtedness to the second principal component

O impacto da adesão aos diferentes níveis de Governança Corporativa para o desempenho econômico e financeiro de um segmento de empresas

The importance of the capital market to Brazilian economic development, linked to the the fragility of a theoretical framework on the issue, case for developing this research. The agents operating in the capital market seek security and confidence for decision making on their investment in that sense we seek to address the concept and values of Corporate Governance to pay in the Brazilian capital market. The Corporate Governance, in its essence, is the system by which companies are directed and monitored, involving the relationship between shareholders and the board of companies, as well as a set of mechanisms and factors intended to minimize market failures. Seeking to confirm adherence to a more advanced system of corporate governance can result in a favorable financial performance, companies were investigated operating in the financial sector (intermediation, various services and insurance), listed by BM&FBOVESPA. The stock market ranks the corporate governance systems in three levels: Level 1 (rudimentary), Level 2 (intermediate) and New Market Level (advanced). To earn the impact of different levels of Corporate Governance for the outcome of the selected companies were calculated and analyzed accounting ratios of profitability, capital structure and liquidity from the Standardized Financial Statements (DFP), base year 2011, 2012 and 2013