Evaluating Specification Tests for Markov-Switching Time-Series Models

We evaluate the performance of several specification tests for Markov regime-switching time-series models. We consider the Lagrange multiplier (LM) and dynamic specification tests of Hamilton (1996) and Ljung–Box tests based on both the generalized residual and a standard-normal residual constructed using the Rosenblatt transformation. The size and power of the tests are studied using Monte Carlo experiments. We find that the LM tests have the best size and power properties. The Ljung–Box tests exhibit slight size distortions, though tests based on the Rosenblatt transformation perform better than the generalized residual-based tests. The tests exhibit impressive power to detect both autocorrelation and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH). The tests are illustrated with a Markov-switching generalized ARCH (GARCH) model fitted to the US dollar–British pound exchange rate, with the finding that both autocorrelation and GARCH effects are needed to adequately fit the data.

Public health and clinical dilemmas resulting from imprecise vitamin D tests

Objective: To determine whether there are clinical and public health dilemmas resulting from the reproducibility of routine vitamin D assays. Methods: Blinded agreement studies were conducted in eight clinical laboratories using two commonly used assays to measure serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels in Australasia and Canada (DiaSorin Radioimmunoassay (RIA) and DiaSorin LIAISON® one). Results: Only one laboratory measured 25(OH)D with excellent precision. Replicate 25(OH)D measurements varied by up to 97% and 15% of paired results differed by more than 50%. Thirteen percent of subjects received one result indicating insufficiency [25-50 nmol/l] and another suggesting adequacy [>50 nmol/l]). Agreement ranged from poor to excellent for laboratories using the manual RIA, while the precision of the semi-automated Liaison® system was consistently poor. Conclusions: Recent interest in the relevance of vitamin D to human health has increased demand for 25(OH)D testing and associated costs. Our results suggest clinicians and public health authorities are making decisions about treatment or changes to public health policy based on imprecise data. Clinicians, researchers and policy makers should be made aware of the imprecision of current 25(OH)D testing so that they exercise caution when using these assays for clinical practice, and when interpreting the findings of epidemiological studies based on vitamin D levels measured using these assays. Development of a rapid, reproducible, accurate and robust assay should be a priority due to interest in populationbased screening programs and research to inform public health policy about the amount of sun exposure required for human health. In the interim, 25(OH)D results should routinely include a statement of measurement uncertainty.

Experimental tests on structural members fabricated from high strength steel materials

Typical high strength steels (HSS) have exceptional high strengths with improved weldability making the material attractive in modern steel constructions. However, due to lack of understanding, most of the current steel design standards are limited to conventional low strength steels (LSS, i.e. fy ≤ 450 MPa). This paper presents the details of full-scale experimental tests on short beams fabricated from BISPLATE80 HSS materials (nominal fy = 690 MPa). The various slenderness ratios of the plate elements in the test specimens were chosen in the range near the current yield limit (AS4100-1998, etc.). The experimental studies presented in this paper have produced a better understanding of the structural behaviour of HSS members subjected to local instabilities. Comparisons have also presented in the paper regarding to the design predictions from the current steel standards (AS4100-1998). This study has enabled to provide a series of proposals for proper assessment of plate slenderness limits for structural members made of representative HSS materials. This research work also enables the inclusion of further versions in the steel design specifications for typical HSS materials to be used in buildings and bridges. This paper also presents a distribution model of residual stresses in the longitudinal direction for typical HSS I-sections.

Infrared spectroscopic investigation of the effects of titania photocatalyst on the degradation of linear low density polyethylene film for commercial applications

There is a need in industry for a commodity polyethylene film with controllable degradation properties that will degrade in an environmentally neutral way, for applications such as shopping bags and packaging film. Additives such as starch have been shown to accelerate the degradation of plastic films, however control of degradation is required so that the film will retain its mechanical properties during storage and use, and then degrade when no longer required. By the addition of a photocatalyst it is hoped that polymer film will breakdown with exposure to sunlight. Furthermore, it is desired that the polymer film will degrade in the dark, after a short initial exposure to sunlight. Research has been undertaken into the photo- and thermo-oxidative degradation processes of 25 ìm thick LLDPE (linear low density polyethylene) film containing titania from different manufacturers. Films were aged in a suntest or in an oven at 50 °C, and the oxidation product formation was followed using IR spectroscopy. Degussa P25, Kronos 1002, and various organic-modified and doped titanias of the types Satchleben Hombitan and Hunstsman Tioxide incorporated into LLDPE films were assessed for photoactivity. Degussa P25 was found to be the most photoactive with UVA and UVC exposure. Surface modification of titania was found to reduce photoactivity. Crystal phase is thought to be among the most important factors when assessing the photoactivity of titania as a photocatalyst for degradation. Pre-irradiation with UVA or UVC for 24 hours of the film containing 3% Degussa P25 titania prior to aging in an oven resulted in embrittlement in ca. 200 days. The multivariate data analysis technique PCA (principal component analysis) was used as an exploratory tool to investigate the IR spectral data. Oxidation products formed in similar relative concentrations across all samples, confirming that titania was catalysing the oxidation of the LLDPE film without changing the oxidation pathway. PCA was also employed to compare rates of degradation in different films. PCA enabled the discovery of water vapour trapped inside cavities formed by oxidation by titania particles. Imaging ATR/FTIR spectroscopy with high lateral resolution was used in a novel experiment to examine the heterogeneous nature of oxidation of a model polymer compound caused by the presence of titania particles. A model polymer containing Degussa P25 titania was solvent cast onto the internal reflection element of the imaging ATR/FTIR and the oxidation under UVC was examined over time. Sensitisation of 5 ìm domains by titania resulted in areas of relatively high oxidation product concentration. The suitability of transmission IR with a synchrotron light source to the study of polymer film oxidation was assessed as the Australian Synchrotron in Melbourne, Australia. Challenges such as interference fringes and poor signal-to-noise ratio need to be addressed before this can become a routine technique.

Full scale fire tests of a new light gauge steel floor-ceiling system

Cold-formed steel members can be assembled in various combinations to provide cost-efficient and safe light gauge floor systems for buildings. Such Light gauge Steel Framing (LSF) systems are widely accepted in industrial and commercial building construction. An example application is in floor-ceiling systems. Light gauge steel floor-ceiling systems must be designed to serve as fire compartment boundaries and provide adequate fire resistance. Fire-rated floor-ceiling assemblies formed with new materials and construction methodologies have been increasingly used in buildings. However, limited research has been undertaken in the past and hence a thorough understanding of their fire resistance behaviour is not available. Recently a new composite floor-ceiling system has been developed to provide higher fire rating under standard fire conditions. But its increased fire rating could not be determined using the currently available design methods. Therefore a research project was carried out to investigate its structural and fire resistance behaviour under standard fire conditions. In this research project full scale experimental tests of the new LSF floor system based on a composite ceiling unit were undertaken using a gas furnace at the Queensland University of Technology. Both the conventional and the new steel floor-ceiling systems were tested under structural and fire loads. Full scale fire tests provided a good understanding of the fire behaviour of the LSF floor-ceiling systems and confirmed the superior performance of the new composite system. This paper presents the details of this research into the structural and fire behaviour of light gauge steel floor systems protected by the new composite panel, and the results.

Structural behaviour and design of cold-formed steel beams at elevated temperatures

Cold-formed steel members are extensively used in the building construction industry, especially in residential, commercial and industrial buildings. In recent times, fire safety has become important in structural design due to increased fire damage to properties and loss of lives. However, past research into the fire performance of cold-formed steel members has been limited, and was confined to compression members. Therefore a research project was undertaken to investigate the structural behaviour of compact cold-formed steel lipped channel beams subject to inelastic local buckling and yielding, and lateral-torsional buckling effects under simulated fire conditions and associated section and member moment capacities. In the first phase of this research, an experimental study based on tensile coupon tests was undertaken to obtain the mechanical properties of elastic modulus and yield strength and the stress-strain relationship of cold-formed steels at uniform ambient and elevated temperatures up to 700oC. The mechanical properties deteriorated with increasing temperature and are likely to reduce the strength of cold-formed beams under fire conditions. Predictive equations were developed for yield strength and elastic modulus reduction factors while a modification was proposed for the stressstrain model at elevated temperatures. These results were used in the numerical modelling phases investigating the section and member moment capacities. The second phase of this research involved the development and validation of two finite element models to simulate the behaviour of compact cold-formed steel lipped channel beams subject to local buckling and yielding, and lateral-torsional buckling effects. Both models were first validated for elastic buckling. Lateral-torsional buckling tests of compact lipped channel beams were conducted at ambient temperature in order to validate the finite element model in predicting the non-linear ultimate strength behaviour. The results from this experimental study did not agree well with those from the developed experimental finite element model due to some unavoidable problems with testing. However, it highlighted the importance of magnitude and direction of initial geometric imperfection as well as the failure direction, and thus led to further enhancement of the finite element model. The finite element model for lateral-torsional buckling was then validated using the available experimental and numerical ultimate moment capacity results from past research. The third phase based on the validated finite element models included detailed parametric studies of section and member moment capacities of compact lipped channel beams at ambient temperature, and provided the basis for similar studies at elevated temperatures. The results showed the existence of inelastic reserve capacity for compact cold-formed steel beams at ambient temperature. However, full plastic capacity was not achieved by the mono-symmetric cold-formed steel beams. Suitable recommendations were made in relation to the accuracy and suitability of current design rules for section moment capacity. Comparison of member capacity results from finite element analyses with current design rules showed that they do not give accurate predictions of lateral-torsional buckling capacities at ambient temperature and hence new design rules were developed. The fourth phase of this research investigated the section and member moment capacities of compact lipped channel beams at uniform elevated temperatures based on detailed parametric studies using the validated finite element models. The results showed the existence of inelastic reserve capacity at elevated temperatures. Suitable recommendations were made in relation to the accuracy and suitability of current design rules for section moment capacity in fire design codes, ambient temperature design codes as well as those proposed by other researchers. The results showed that lateral-torsional buckling capacities are dependent on the ratio of yield strength and elasticity modulus reduction factors and the level of non-linearity in the stress-strain curves at elevated temperatures in addition to the temperature. Current design rules do not include the effects of non-linear stress-strain relationship and therefore their predictions were found to be inaccurate. Therefore a new design rule that uses a nonlinearity factor, which is defined as the ratio of the limit of proportionality to the yield stress at a given temperature, was developed for cold-formed steel beams subject to lateral-torsional buckling at elevated temperatures. This thesis presents the details and results of the experimental and numerical studies conducted in this research including a comparison of results with predictions using available design rules. It also presents the recommendations made regarding the accuracy of current design rules as well as the new developed design rules for coldformed steel beams both at ambient and elevated temperatures.

Performance tests for visual servo control systems, with application to partitioned approaches to visual servo control

Visual servoing has been a viable method of robot manipulator control for more than a decade. Initial developments involved positionbased visual servoing (PBVS), in which the control signal exists in Cartesian space. The younger method, image-based visual servoing (IBVS), has seen considerable development in recent years. PBVS and IBVS offer tradeoffs in performance, and neither can solve all tasks that may confront a robot. In response to these issues, several methods have been devised that partition the control scheme, allowing some motions to be performed in the manner of a PBVS system, while the remaining motions are performed using an IBVS approach. To date, there has been little research that explores the relative strengths and weaknesses of these methods. In this paper we present such an evaluation. We have chosen three recent visual servo approaches for evaluation in addition to the traditional PBVS and IBVS approaches. We posit a set of performance metrics that measure quantitatively the performance of a visual servo controller for a specific task. We then evaluate each of the candidate visual servo methods for four canonical tasks with simulations and with experiments in a robotic work cell.

Numerical simulation of axially loaded concrete columns under transverse impact and vulnerability assessment

With a view to assessing the vulnerability of columns to low elevation vehicular impacts, a non-linear explicit numerical model has been developed and validated using existing experimental results. The numerical model accounts for the effects of strain rate and confinement of the reinforced concrete, which are fundamental to the successful prediction of the impact response. The sensitivity of the material model parameters used for the validation is also scrutinised and numerical tests are performed to examine their suitability to simulate the shear failure conditions. Conflicting views on the strain gradient effects are discussed and the validation process is extended to investigate the ability of the equations developed under concentric loading conditions to simulate flexural failure events. Experimental data on impact force–time histories, mid span and residual deflections and support reactions have been verified against corresponding numerical results. A universal technique which can be applied to determine the vulnerability of the impacted columns against collisions with new generation vehicles under the most common impact modes is proposed. Additionally, the observed failure characteristics of the impacted columns are explained using extended outcomes. Based on the overall results, an analytical method is suggested to quantify the vulnerability of the columns.

An advanced implicit meshless approach for the non-linear anomalous subdiffusion equation

Recently, the numerical modelling and simulation for anomalous subdiffusion equation (ASDE), which is a type of fractional partial differential equation( FPDE) and has been found with widely applications in modern engineering and sciences, are attracting more and more attentions. The current dominant numerical method for modelling ASDE is Finite Difference Method (FDM), which is based on a pre-defined grid leading to inherited issues or shortcomings. This paper aims to develop an implicit meshless approach based on the radial basis functions (RBF) for numerical simulation of the non-linear ASDE. The discrete system of equations is obtained by using the meshless shape functions and the strong-forms. The stability and convergence of this meshless approach are then discussed and theoretically proven. Several numerical examples with different problem domains are used to validate and investigate accuracy and efficiency of the newly developed meshless formulation. The results obtained by the meshless formulations are also compared with those obtained by FDM in terms of their accuracy and efficiency. It is concluded that the present meshless formulation is very effective for the modeling and simulation of the ASDE. Therefore, the meshless technique should have good potential in development of a robust simulation tool for problems in engineering and science which are governed by the various types of fractional differential equations.

Analysis of linear relationships in block ciphers

This thesis is devoted to the study of linear relationships in symmetric block ciphers. A block cipher is designed so that the ciphertext is produced as a nonlinear function of the plaintext and secret master key. However, linear relationships within the cipher can still exist if the texts and components of the cipher are manipulated in a number of ways, as shown in this thesis. There are four main contributions of this thesis. The first contribution is the extension of the applicability of integral attacks from word-based to bitbased block ciphers. Integral attacks exploit the linear relationship between texts at intermediate stages of encryption. This relationship can be used to recover subkey bits in a key recovery attack. In principle, integral attacks can be applied to bit-based block ciphers. However, specific tools to define the attack on these ciphers are not available. This problem is addressed in this thesis by introducing a refined set of notations to describe the attack. The bit patternbased integral attack is successfully demonstrated on reduced-round variants of the block ciphers Noekeon, Present and Serpent. The second contribution is the discovery of a very small system of equations that describe the LEX-AES stream cipher. LEX-AES is based heavily on the 128-bit-key (16-byte) Advanced Encryption Standard (AES) block cipher. In one instance, the system contains 21 equations and 17 unknown bytes. This is very close to the upper limit for an exhaustive key search, which is 16 bytes. One only needs to acquire 36 bytes of keystream to generate the equations. Therefore, the security of this cipher depends on the difficulty of solving this small system of equations. The third contribution is the proposal of an alternative method to measure diffusion in the linear transformation of Substitution-Permutation-Network (SPN) block ciphers. Currently, the branch number is widely used for this purpose. It is useful for estimating the possible success of differential and linear attacks on a particular SPN cipher. However, the measure does not give information on the number of input bits that are left unchanged by the transformation when producing the output bits. The new measure introduced in this thesis is intended to complement the current branch number technique. The measure is based on fixed points and simple linear relationships between the input and output words of the linear transformation. The measure represents the average fraction of input words to a linear diffusion transformation that are not effectively changed by the transformation. This measure is applied to the block ciphers AES, ARIA, Serpent and Present. It is shown that except for Serpent, the linear transformations used in the block ciphers examined do not behave as expected for a random linear transformation. The fourth contribution is the identification of linear paths in the nonlinear round function of the SMS4 block cipher. The SMS4 block cipher is used as a standard in the Chinese Wireless LAN Wired Authentication and Privacy Infrastructure (WAPI) and hence, the round function should exhibit a high level of nonlinearity. However, the findings in this thesis on the existence of linear relationships show that this is not the case. It is shown that in some exceptional cases, the first four rounds of SMS4 are effectively linear. In these cases, the effective number of rounds for SMS4 is reduced by four, from 32 to 28. The findings raise questions about the security provided by SMS4, and might provide clues on the existence of a flaw in the design of the cipher.

Advanced analysis of steel frame structures comprising non-compact sections

During the past decade, a significant amount of research has been conducted internationally with the aim of developing, implementing, and verifying "advanced analysis" methods suitable for non-linear analysis and design of steel frame structures. Application of these methods permits comprehensive assessment of the actual failure modes and ultimate strengths of structural systems in practical design situations, without resort to simplified elastic methods of analysis and semi-empirical specification equations. Advanced analysis has the potential to extend the creativity of structural engineers and simplify the design process, while ensuring greater economy and more uniform safety with respect to the ultimate limit state. The application of advanced analysis methods has previously been restricted to steel frames comprising only members with compact cross-sections that are not subject to the effects of local buckling. This precluded the use of advanced analysis from the design of steel frames comprising a significant proportion of the most commonly used Australian sections, which are non-compact and subject to the effects of local buckling. This thesis contains a detailed description of research conducted over the past three years in an attempt to extend the scope of advanced analysis by developing methods that include the effects of local buckling in a non-linear analysis formulation, suitable for practical design of steel frames comprising non-compact sections. Two alternative concentrated plasticity formulations are presented in this thesis: the refined plastic hinge method and the pseudo plastic zone method. Both methods implicitly account for the effects of gradual cross-sectional yielding, longitudinal spread of plasticity, initial geometric imperfections, residual stresses, and local buckling. The accuracy and precision of the methods for the analysis of steel frames comprising non-compact sections has been established by comparison with a comprehensive range of analytical benchmark frame solutions. Both the refined plastic hinge and pseudo plastic zone methods are more accurate and precise than the conventional individual member design methods based on elastic analysis and specification equations. For example, the pseudo plastic zone method predicts the ultimate strength of the analytical benchmark frames with an average conservative error of less than one percent, and has an acceptable maximum unconservati_ve error of less than five percent. The pseudo plastic zone model can allow the design capacity to be increased by up to 30 percent for simple frames, mainly due to the consideration of inelastic redistribution. The benefits may be even more significant for complex frames with significant redundancy, which provides greater scope for inelastic redistribution. The analytical benchmark frame solutions were obtained using a distributed plasticity shell finite element model. A detailed description of this model and the results of all the 120 benchmark analyses are provided. The model explicitly accounts for the effects of gradual cross-sectional yielding, longitudinal spread of plasticity, initial geometric imperfections, residual stresses, and local buckling. Its accuracy was verified by comparison with a variety of analytical solutions and the results of three large-scale experimental tests of steel frames comprising non-compact sections. A description of the experimental method and test results is also provided.