980 resultados para jet fuel price risk


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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Includes bibliography

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Includes bibliography

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The current energy systems within Curaçao depend primarily on high cost, imported fossil fuels, and typically constitute power sectors that are characterized by small, inefficient generation plants which result in high energy prices. As a consequence of its dependence on external fuel supplies, Curaçao is extremely vulnerable to international oil price shocks, which can impact on economic planning and foreign direct investment within their industrial sectors. The ability of the successive governments to source capital for economic stimulation and social investment is therefore significantly challenging. Additionally, there is over-dependence on two of the most climate-sensitive economic sectors, namely the tourism and fisheries sectors, but the vulnerabilities of the country to the effects of climate change make adaptation difficult and costly. It is within this context that this report focuses on identification of the fiscal and regulatory barriers to implementation of energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies in Curaçao with a view of making recommendations for removal of these barriers. Consultations with key Government officials, the private sector as well as civil society were conducted to obtain information and data on the energy sector in the country. Desktop research was also conducted to supplement the information gathered from the consultations. The major result of the assessment is that Curaçao is at an early stage in the definition of its energy sector. Despite some infrastructural legacies of the pre-independence era, as well as a number of recent developments including the modernization and expansion of its windfarms and completion of a modern Electricity Policy, there are still a number of important institutional and policy gaps within the energy sector in Curaçao. The most significant deficiency is the absence of a ministry or Government agency with portfolio responsibility for the energy sector as a whole; this has: limited the degree to which the activities of energy sector stakeholders are coordinated and retarded the development and implementation of a comprehensive national energy policy. The absence of an energy policy, which provides the framework for energy planning, increases investor risk. Also, the lack of political continuity that has emanated from the frequent changes in Government administrations is a concern among stakeholders and has served to reduce investor confidence in particular, and market confidence in general.

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By means of a meta-analysis, this article sets out to estimate average values for the income and price elasticities of gasoline demand and to analyse the reasons for the variations in the elasticities reported by the literature. The findings show that there is publication bias, that the volatility of elasticity estimates is not due to sampling errors alone, and that there are systematic factors explaining these differences. The income and price elasticities of gasoline demand differ between the short and long run and by region, and the estimation can appropriately include the vehicle fleet and the prices of substitute goods, the data types and the estimation methods used. The presence of a low price elasticity suggests that a fuel tax will be inadequate to control rising consumption in a context of rapid economic growth.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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The oregano is a plant, rich in essential oil and very used as spice in the preparation of foods. The objective of this paper was to analyze the viability of irrigation for oregano in Presidente Prudente, São Paulo state, Brazil, including economic risk factors, their effect on irrigation total cost, as well as the different pumping kinds. The Monte Carlo simulation was utilized to study the economic factors: fixed cost, labor, maintenance, pumping and water. The use of irrigation for the oregano in the region of Presidente Prudente is indicated because of its economic feasibility and the reduced risks. The average values of the benefit/cost for all water depths tested were higher than 1, indicating viability. The use of irrigation promoted lower risks compared to the non irrigated crop. The micro irrigation system presented greater sensitivity to changes of prices of the equipment associated to the variation of the useful life of the system. The oregano selling price was the most important factor involved in annual net profit. The water cost was the factor of lesser influence on the total cost. Due to the characteristic of high drip irrigation frequency there was no difference between the tariffs based in use hour of electric energy classified as green and blue, which are characterized by applying different rates on the energy consumption and demand according to the hours of day and times of the year. For the studied region it was recommended drip irrigation water management of oregano with the daily application of 100% of pan evaporation Class A using electric motor with tariffs blue or green.

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The relation between the intercepted light and orchard productivity was considered linear, although this dependence seems to be more subordinate to planting system rather than light intensity. At whole plant level not always the increase of irradiance determines productivity improvement. One of the reasons can be the plant intrinsic un-efficiency in using energy. Generally in full light only the 5 – 10% of the total incoming energy is allocated to net photosynthesis. Therefore preserving or improving this efficiency becomes pivotal for scientist and fruit growers. Even tough a conspicuous energy amount is reflected or transmitted, plants can not avoid to absorb photons in excess. The chlorophyll over-excitation promotes the reactive species production increasing the photoinhibition risks. The dangerous consequences of photoinhibition forced plants to evolve a complex and multilevel machine able to dissipate the energy excess quenching heat (Non Photochemical Quenching), moving electrons (water-water cycle , cyclic transport around PSI, glutathione-ascorbate cycle and photorespiration) and scavenging the generated reactive species. The price plants must pay for this equipment is the use of CO2 and reducing power with a consequent decrease of the photosynthetic efficiency, both because some photons are not used for carboxylation and an effective CO2 and reducing power loss occurs. Net photosynthesis increases with light until the saturation point, additional PPFD doesn’t improve carboxylation but it rises the efficiency of the alternative pathways in energy dissipation but also ROS production and photoinhibition risks. The wide photo-protective apparatus, although is not able to cope with the excessive incoming energy, therefore photodamage occurs. Each event increasing the photon pressure and/or decreasing the efficiency of the described photo-protective mechanisms (i.e. thermal stress, water and nutritional deficiency) can emphasize the photoinhibition. Likely in nature a small amount of not damaged photosystems is found because of the effective, efficient and energy consuming recovery system. Since the damaged PSII is quickly repaired with energy expense, it would be interesting to investigate how much PSII recovery costs to plant productivity. This PhD. dissertation purposes to improve the knowledge about the several strategies accomplished for managing the incoming energy and the light excess implication on photo-damage in peach. The thesis is organized in three scientific units. In the first section a new rapid, non-intrusive, whole tissue and universal technique for functional PSII determination was implemented and validated on different kinds of plants as C3 and C4 species, woody and herbaceous plants, wild type and Chlorophyll b-less mutant and monocot and dicot plants. In the second unit, using a “singular” experimental orchard named “Asymmetric orchard”, the relation between light environment and photosynthetic performance, water use and photoinhibition was investigated in peach at whole plant level, furthermore the effect of photon pressure variation on energy management was considered on single leaf. In the third section the quenching analysis method suggested by Kornyeyev and Hendrickson (2007) was validate on peach. Afterwards it was applied in the field where the influence of moderate light and water reduction on peach photosynthetic performances, water requirements, energy management and photoinhibition was studied. Using solar energy as fuel for life plant is intrinsically suicidal since the high constant photodamage risk. This dissertation would try to highlight the complex relation existing between plant, in particular peach, and light analysing the principal strategies plants developed to manage the incoming light for deriving the maximal benefits as possible minimizing the risks. In the first instance the new method proposed for functional PSII determination based on P700 redox kinetics seems to be a valid, non intrusive, universal and field-applicable technique, even because it is able to measure in deep the whole leaf tissue rather than the first leaf layers as fluorescence. Fluorescence Fv/Fm parameter gives a good estimate of functional PSII but only when data obtained by ad-axial and ab-axial leaf surface are averaged. In addition to this method the energy quenching analysis proposed by Kornyeyev and Hendrickson (2007), combined with the photosynthesis model proposed by von Caemmerer (2000) is a forceful tool to analyse and study, even in the field, the relation between plant and environmental factors such as water, temperature but first of all light. “Asymmetric” training system is a good way to study light energy, photosynthetic performance and water use relations in the field. At whole plant level net carboxylation increases with PPFD reaching a saturating point. Light excess rather than improve photosynthesis may emphasize water and thermal stress leading to stomatal limitation. Furthermore too much light does not promote net carboxylation improvement but PSII damage, in fact in the most light exposed plants about 50-60% of the total PSII is inactivated. At single leaf level, net carboxylation increases till saturation point (1000 – 1200 μmolm-2s-1) and light excess is dissipated by non photochemical quenching and non net carboxylative transports. The latter follows a quite similar pattern of Pn/PPFD curve reaching the saturation point at almost the same photon flux density. At middle-low irradiance NPQ seems to be lumen pH limited because the incoming photon pressure is not enough to generate the optimum lumen pH for violaxanthin de-epoxidase (VDE) full activation. Peach leaves try to cope with the light excess increasing the non net carboxylative transports. While PPFD rises the xanthophyll cycle is more and more activated and the rate of non net carboxylative transports is reduced. Some of these alternative transports, such as the water-water cycle, the cyclic transport around the PSI and the glutathione-ascorbate cycle are able to generate additional H+ in lumen in order to support the VDE activation when light can be limiting. Moreover the alternative transports seems to be involved as an important dissipative way when high temperature and sub-optimal conductance emphasize the photoinhibition risks. In peach, a moderate water and light reduction does not determine net carboxylation decrease but, diminishing the incoming light and the environmental evapo-transpiration request, stomatal conductance decreases, improving water use efficiency. Therefore lowering light intensity till not limiting levels, water could be saved not compromising net photosynthesis. The quenching analysis is able to partition absorbed energy in the several utilization, photoprotection and photo-oxidation pathways. When recovery is permitted only few PSII remained un-repaired, although more net PSII damage is recorded in plants placed in full light. Even in this experiment, in over saturating light the main dissipation pathway is the non photochemical quenching; at middle-low irradiance it seems to be pH limited and other transports, such as photorespiration and alternative transports, are used to support photoprotection and to contribute for creating the optimal trans-thylakoidal ΔpH for violaxanthin de-epoxidase. These alternative pathways become the main quenching mechanisms at very low light environment. Another aspect pointed out by this study is the role of NPQ as dissipative pathway when conductance becomes severely limiting. The evidence that in nature a small amount of damaged PSII is seen indicates the presence of an effective and efficient recovery mechanism that masks the real photodamage occurring during the day. At single leaf level, when repair is not allowed leaves in full light are two fold more photoinhibited than the shaded ones. Therefore light in excess of the photosynthetic optima does not promote net carboxylation but increases water loss and PSII damage. The more is photoinhibition the more must be the photosystems to be repaired and consequently the energy and dry matter to allocate in this essential activity. Since above the saturation point net photosynthesis is constant while photoinhibition increases it would be interesting to investigate how photodamage costs in terms of tree productivity. An other aspect of pivotal importance to be further widened is the combined influence of light and other environmental parameters, like water status, temperature and nutrition on peach light, water and phtosyntate management.

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To examine the association of baseline body mass index (BMI) with the risk of recurrence or death in postmenopausal women with early-stage breast cancer receiving adjuvant tamoxifen or letrozole in the Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98 trial at 8.7 years of median follow-up.

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PURPOSE: To compare adjuvant dose-intensive epirubicin and cyclophosphamide chemotherapy administered with filgrastim and progenitor cell support (DI-EC) with standard-dose anthracycline-based chemotherapy (SD-CT) for patients with early-stage breast cancer and a high risk of relapse, defined as stage II disease with 10 or more positive axillary nodes; or an estrogen receptor-negative or stage III tumor with five or more positive axillary nodes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Three hundred forty-four patients were randomized after surgery to receive seven cycles of SD-CT over 22 weeks, or three cycles of DI-EC (epirubicin 200 mg/m2 plus cyclophosphamide 4 gm/m2 with filgrastim and progenitor cell support) over 6 weeks. All patients were assigned tamoxifen at the completion of chemotherapy. The primary end point was disease-free survival (DFS). RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 5.8 years (range, 3 to 8.4 years), 188 DFS events had occurred (DI-EC, 86 events; SD-CT, 102 events). The 5-year DFS was 52% for DI-EC and 43% for SD-CT, with hazard ratio of DI-EC compared with SD-CT of 0.77 (95% CI, 0.58 to 1.02; P = .07). The 5-year overall survival was 70% for DI-EC and 61% for SD-CT, with a hazard ratio of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.56 to 1.11; P = .17). There were eight cases (5%) of anthracycline-induced cardiomyopathy (two fatal) among those who received DI-EC. Women with hormone receptor-positive tumors benefited significantly from DI-EC. CONCLUSION: There was a trend in favor of DI-EC with respect to disease-free survival. A larger trial or meta-analysis will be required to reveal the true effect of dose-intensive therapy.

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BACKGROUND: We sought to determine whether a high-risk group could be defined among patients with operable breast cancer in whom a search of occult central nervous system (CNS) metastases was justified. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We evaluated data from 9524 women with early breast cancer (42% node-negative) who were randomized in International Breast Cancer Study Group clinical trials between 1978 and 1999, and treated without anthracyclines, taxanes, or trastuzumab. We identified patients whose site of first event was CNS and those who had a CNS event at any time. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 13 years. The 10-year incidence (10-yr) of CNS relapse was 5.2% (1.3% as first recurrence). Factors predictive of CNS as first recurrence included: node-positive disease (10-yr = 2.2% for > 3 N+), estrogen receptor-negative (2.3%), tumor size > 2 cm (1.7%), tumor grade 3 (2.0%), < 35 years old (2.2%), HER2-positive (2.7%), and estrogen receptor-negative and node-positive (2.6%). The risk of subsequent CNS recurrence was elevated in patients experiencing lung metastases (10-yr = 16.4%). CONCLUSION: Based on this large cohort we were able to define risk factors for CNS metastases, but could not define a group at sufficient risk to justify routine screening for occult CNS metastases.