Quasi-Dirac neutrinos and solar neutrino data

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Laboratory testes with quality data in Dentistry

In laboratory tests, just following the manufacturer’s instructions of materials or equipments may not be enough to obtain reliable data. Thus, intra and inter-examiners studies may be required. The aim of this study was to illustrate the application of the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (r) in a study related to the color changing and hardness of composite resin conducted by two examiners. The color and hardness of 10 specimens of composite resin were evaluated by a colorimetric spectrophotometer and hardness tester, respectively, at two different times. Two trained examiners performed two measurements with an interval of one week. Specimens were stored in artificial saliva at 37±1ºC for 7 days. The Intraclass Correlation was used for analysis of intra and inter-examiner reproducibility. The intra-examiner reproducibility was 0.79, 0.44 and 0.76 for L, a and b color coordinates for the examiner 1 and 0.84, 0.23, 0.21 for examiner 2. For hardness, r-values were 0.00 and 0.23 for the examiner 1 and 2, respectively, showing unsatisfactory agreement on color and hardness evaluation for both examiners. It was noted that only the observation of protocol for use of equipment and examiners training were not sufficient to collect reliable information. Thus, adjustments in the experimental protocol were made and devices were produced to standardize the measurements. The reproducibility study was performed again. For examiner 1, values as 0.90, 0.59 and 0.79 were verified for L, a and b coordinates and, for examiner 2 were obtained values of 0.90, 0.75, 0.95. In relation to hardness, r-values of 0.75 and 0.71 were obtained for examiners 1 and 2, respectively. The inter-examiner reproducibility was 0.86, 0.87, 0.91 for L, a and b coordinates and 0.79 for hardness. It was concluded that intra and inter-examiner calibration is essential for obtaining quality measurements in laboratory tests.

A New Birth-Interval Approach to Estimating Demographic Parameters of Humpback Whales

A demographic model is developed based on interbirth intervals and is applied to estimate the population growth rate of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the Gulf of Maine. Fecundity rates in this model are based on the probabilities of giving birth at time t after a previous birth and on the probabilities of giving birth first at age x. Maximum likelihood methods are used to estimate these probabilities using sighting data collected for individually identified whales. Female survival rates are estimated from these same sighting data using a modified Jolly–Seber method. The youngest age at first parturition is 5 yr, the estimated mean birth interval is 2.38 yr (SE = 0.10 yr), the estimated noncalf survival rate is 0.960 (SE = 0.008), and the estimated calf survival rate is 0.875 (SE = 0.047). The population growth rate (l) is estimated to be 1.065; its standard error is estimated as 0.012 using a Monte Carlo approach, which simulated sampling from a hypothetical population of whales. The simulation is also used to investigate the bias in estimating birth intervals by previous methods. The approach developed here is applicable to studies of other populations for which individual interbirth intervals can be measured.

A mixed model QTL analysis for sugarcane multiple-harvest-location trial data

Sugarcane-breeding programs take at least 12 years to develop new commercial cultivars. Molecular markers offer a possibility to study the genetic architecture of quantitative traits in sugarcane, and they may be used in marker-assisted selection to speed up artificial selection. Although the performance of sugarcane progenies in breeding programs are commonly evaluated across a range of locations and harvest years, many of the QTL detection methods ignore two- and three-way interactions between QTL, harvest, and location. In this work, a strategy for QTL detection in multi-harvest-location trial data, based on interval mapping and mixed models, is proposed and applied to map QTL effects on a segregating progeny from a biparental cross of pre-commercial Brazilian cultivars, evaluated at two locations and three consecutive harvest years for cane yield (tonnes per hectare), sugar yield (tonnes per hectare), fiber percent, and sucrose content. In the mixed model, we have included appropriate (co)variance structures for modeling heterogeneity and correlation of genetic effects and non-genetic residual effects. Forty-six QTLs were found: 13 QTLs for cane yield, 14 for sugar yield, 11 for fiber percent, and 8 for sucrose content. In addition, QTL by harvest, QTL by location, and QTL by harvest by location interaction effects were significant for all evaluated traits (30 QTLs showed some interaction, and 16 none). Our results contribute to a better understanding of the genetic architecture of complex traits related to biomass production and sucrose content in sugarcane.

A general threshold stress hybrid hazard model for lifetime data

In this paper we propose a hybrid hazard regression model with threshold stress which includes the proportional hazards and the accelerated failure time models as particular cases. To express the behavior of lifetimes the generalized-gamma distribution is assumed and an inverse power law model with a threshold stress is considered. For parameter estimation we develop a sampling-based posterior inference procedure based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. We assume proper but vague priors for the parameters of interest. A simulation study investigates the frequentist properties of the proposed estimators obtained under the assumption of vague priors. Further, some discussions on model selection criteria are given. The methodology is illustrated on simulated and real lifetime data set.

Image Reconstruction Using Interval Simulated Annealing in Electrical Impedance Tomography

Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) is an imaging technique that attempts to reconstruct the impedance distribution inside an object from the impedance between electrodes placed on the object surface. The EIT reconstruction problem can be approached as a nonlinear nonconvex optimization problem in which one tries to maximize the matching between a simulated impedance problem and the observed data. This nonlinear optimization problem is often ill-posed, and not very suited to methods that evaluate derivatives of the objective function. It may be approached by simulated annealing (SA), but at a large computational cost due to the expensive evaluation process of the objective function, which involves a full simulation of the impedance problem at each iteration. A variation of SA is proposed in which the objective function is evaluated only partially, while ensuring boundaries on the behavior of the modified algorithm.

Estimate of corrected values and the effect of correction for measurement error in dietary data obtained by the Food Frequency Questionnaire for Adolescents (AFFQ)

The scope of this study was to estimate calibrated values for dietary data obtained by the Food Frequency Questionnaire for Adolescents (FFQA) and illustrate the effect of this approach on food consumption data. The adolescents were assessed on two occasions, with an average interval of twelve months. In 2004, 393 adolescents participated, and 289 were then reassessed in 2005. Dietary data obtained by the FFQA were calibrated using the regression coefficients estimated from the average of two 24-hour recalls (24HR) of the subsample. The calibrated values were similar to the the 24HR reference measurement in the subsample. In 2004 and 2005 a significant difference was observed between the average consumption levels of the FFQA before and after calibration for all nutrients. With the use of calibrated data the proportion of schoolchildren who had fiber intake below the recommended level increased. Therefore, it is seen that calibrated data can be used to obtain adjusted associations due to reclassification of subjects within the predetermined categories.

Vaginal progesterone in women with an asymptomatic sonographic short cervix in the midtrimester decreases preterm delivery and neonatal morbidity: a systematic review and metaanalysis of individual patient data

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the use of vaginal progesterone in asymptomatic women with a sonographic short cervix (<= 25 mm) in the midtrimester reduces the risk of preterm birth and improves neonatal morbidity and mortality. STUDY DESIGN: Individual patient data metaanalysis of randomized controlled trials. RESULTS: Five trials of high quality were included with a total of 775 women and 827 infants. Treatment with vaginal progesterone was associated with a significant reduction in the rate of preterm birth <33 weeks (relative risk [RR], 0.58; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.42-0.80), <35 weeks (RR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.55-0.88), and <28 weeks (RR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.30-0.81); respiratory distress syndrome (RR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.30-0.76); composite neonatal morbidity and mortality (RR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.40-0.81); birthweight <1500 g (RR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.38-0.80); admission to neonatal intensive care unit (RR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.59-0.94); and requirement for mechanical ventilation (RR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.44-0.98). There were no significant differences between the vaginal progesterone and placebo groups in the rate of adverse maternal events or congenital anomalies. CONCLUSION: Vaginal progesterone administration to asymptomatic women with a sonographic short cervix reduces the risk of preterm birth and neonatal morbidity and mortality.

Bootstrap confidence intervals for industrial recurrent event data

Industrial recurrent event data where an event of interest can be observed more than once in a single sample unit are presented in several areas, such as engineering, manufacturing and industrial reliability. Such type of data provide information about the number of events, time to their occurrence and also their costs. Nelson (1995) presents a methodology to obtain asymptotic confidence intervals for the cost and the number of cumulative recurrent events. Although this is a standard procedure, it can not perform well in some situations, in particular when the sample size available is small. In this context, computer-intensive methods such as bootstrap can be used to construct confidence intervals. In this paper, we propose a technique based on the bootstrap method to have interval estimates for the cost and the number of cumulative events. One of the advantages of the proposed methodology is the possibility for its application in several areas and its easy computational implementation. In addition, it can be a better alternative than asymptotic-based methods to calculate confidence intervals, according to some Monte Carlo simulations. An example from the engineering area illustrates the methodology.

Liquid-liquid equilibria in binary solutions formed by [Pyridinium-Derived][F4B] ionic liquids and alkanols:new experimental data and validation of a multiparametric model for correlating LLE data

[EN]Experimental solubility data are presented for a set of binary systems composed of ionic liquids (IL) derived from pyridium, with the tetrafluoroborate anion, and normal alcohols ranging from ethanol to decanol, in the temperature interval of 275 420 K, at atmospheric pressure. For each case, the miscibility curve and the upper critical solubility temperature (UCST) values are presented. The effects of the ILs on the behavior of solutions with alkanols are analyzed, paying special attention to the pyridine derivatives, and considering a series of structural characteristics of the compounds involved.

Estimating crustal deformation from geodetic data

By the end of the 19th century, geodesy has contributed greatly to the knowledge of regional tectonics and fault movement through its ability to measure, at sub-centimetre precision, the relative positions of points on the Earth’s surface. Nowadays the systematic analysis of geodetic measurements in active deformation regions represents therefore one of the most important tool in the study of crustal deformation over different temporal scales [e.g., Dixon, 1991]. This dissertation focuses on motion that can be observed geodetically with classical terrestrial position measurements, particularly triangulation and leveling observations. The work is divided into two sections: an overview of the principal methods for estimating longterm accumulation of elastic strain from terrestrial observations, and an overview of the principal methods for rigorously inverting surface coseismic deformation fields for source geometry with tests on synthetic deformation data sets and applications in two different tectonically active regions of the Italian peninsula. For the long-term accumulation of elastic strain analysis, triangulation data were available from a geodetic network across the Messina Straits area (southern Italy) for the period 1971 – 2004. From resulting angle changes, the shear strain rates as well as the orientation of the principal axes of the strain rate tensor were estimated. The computed average annual shear strain rates for the time period between 1971 and 2004 are γ˙1 = 113.89 ± 54.96 nanostrain/yr and γ˙2 = -23.38 ± 48.71 nanostrain/yr, with the orientation of the most extensional strain (θ) at N140.80° ± 19.55°E. These results suggests that the first-order strain field of the area is dominated by extension in the direction perpendicular to the trend of the Straits, sustaining the hypothesis that the Messina Straits could represents an area of active concentrated deformation. The orientation of θ agree well with GPS deformation estimates, calculated over shorter time interval, and is consistent with previous preliminary GPS estimates [D’Agostino and Selvaggi, 2004; Serpelloni et al., 2005] and is also similar to the direction of the 1908 (MW 7.1) earthquake slip vector [e.g., Boschi et al., 1989; Valensise and Pantosti, 1992; Pino et al., 2000; Amoruso et al., 2002]. Thus, the measured strain rate can be attributed to an active extension across the Messina Straits, corresponding to a relative extension rate ranges between < 1mm/yr and up to ~ 2 mm/yr, within the portion of the Straits covered by the triangulation network. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the Messina Straits is an important active geological boundary between the Sicilian and the Calabrian domains and support previous preliminary GPS-based estimates of strain rates across the Straits, which show that the active deformation is distributed along a greater area. Finally, the preliminary dislocation modelling has shown that, although the current geodetic measurements do not resolve the geometry of the dislocation models, they solve well the rate of interseismic strain accumulation across the Messina Straits and give useful information about the locking the depth of the shear zone. Geodetic data, triangulation and leveling measurements of the 1976 Friuli (NE Italy) earthquake, were available for the inversion of coseismic source parameters. From observed angle and elevation changes, the source parameters of the seismic sequence were estimated in a join inversion using an algorithm called “simulated annealing”. The computed optimal uniform–slip elastic dislocation model consists of a 30° north-dipping shallow (depth 1.30 ± 0.75 km) fault plane with azimuth of 273° and accommodating reverse dextral slip of about 1.8 m. The hypocentral location and inferred fault plane of the main event are then consistent with the activation of Periadriatic overthrusts or other related thrust faults as the Gemona- Kobarid thrust. Then, the geodetic data set exclude the source solution of Aoudia et al. [2000], Peruzza et al. [2002] and Poli et al. [2002] that considers the Susans-Tricesimo thrust as the May 6 event. The best-fit source model is then more consistent with the solution of Pondrelli et al. [2001], which proposed the activation of other thrusts located more to the North of the Susans-Tricesimo thrust, probably on Periadriatic related thrust faults. The main characteristics of the leveling and triangulation data are then fit by the optimal single fault model, that is, these results are consistent with a first-order rupture process characterized by a progressive rupture of a single fault system. A single uniform-slip fault model seems to not reproduce some minor complexities of the observations, and some residual signals that are not modelled by the optimal single-fault plane solution, were observed. In fact, the single fault plane model does not reproduce some minor features of the leveling deformation field along the route 36 south of the main uplift peak, that is, a second fault seems to be necessary to reproduce these residual signals. By assuming movements along some mapped thrust located southward of the inferred optimal single-plane solution, the residual signal has been successfully modelled. In summary, the inversion results presented in this Thesis, are consistent with the activation of some Periadriatic related thrust for the main events of the sequence, and with a minor importance of the southward thrust systems of the middle Tagliamento plain.

Implementazione ed analisi di un framework basato su Cloud per la valutazione di algoritmi di data Distribution Management

Il Data Distribution Management (DDM) è un componente dello standard High Level Architecture. Il suo compito è quello di rilevare le sovrapposizioni tra update e subscription extent in modo efficiente. All'interno di questa tesi si discute la necessità di avere un framework e per quali motivi è stato implementato. Il testing di algoritmi per un confronto equo, librerie per facilitare la realizzazione di algoritmi, automatizzazione della fase di compilazione, sono motivi che sono stati fondamentali per iniziare la realizzazione framework. Il motivo portante è stato che esplorando articoli scientifici sul DDM e sui vari algoritmi si è notato che in ogni articolo si creavano dei dati appositi per fare dei test. L'obiettivo di questo framework è anche quello di riuscire a confrontare gli algoritmi con un insieme di dati coerente. Si è deciso di testare il framework sul Cloud per avere un confronto più affidabile tra esecuzioni di utenti diversi. Si sono presi in considerazione due dei servizi più utilizzati: Amazon AWS EC2 e Google App Engine. Sono stati mostrati i vantaggi e gli svantaggi dell'uno e dell'altro e il motivo per cui si è scelto di utilizzare Google App Engine. Si sono sviluppati quattro algoritmi: Brute Force, Binary Partition, Improved Sort, Interval Tree Matching. Sono stati svolti dei test sul tempo di esecuzione e sulla memoria di picco utilizzata. Dai risultati si evince che l'Interval Tree Matching e l'Improved Sort sono i più efficienti. Tutti i test sono stati svolti sulle versioni sequenziali degli algoritmi e che quindi ci può essere un riduzione nel tempo di esecuzione per l'algoritmo Interval Tree Matching.

Prognosis of Atrial Fibrillation in Patients with Symptomatic Peripheral Arterial Disease: Data from the REduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) Registry

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a significant risk factor for cardiovascular (CV) mortality. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic implication of AF in patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD). METHODS: The International Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) Registry included 23,542 outpatients in Europe with established coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease (CVD), PAD and/or >/=3 risk factors. Of these, 3753 patients had symptomatic PAD. CV risk factors were determined at baseline. Study end point was a combination of cardiac death, non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke (CV events) during 2 years of follow-up. Cox regression analysis adjusted for age, gender and other risk factors (i.e., congestive heart failure, coronary artery re-vascularisation, coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), MI, hypertension, stroke, current smoking and diabetes) was used. RESULTS: Of 3753 PAD patients, 392 (10%) were known to have AF. Patients with AF were older and had a higher prevalence of CVD, diabetes and hypertension. Long-term CV mortality occurred in 5.6% of patients with AF and in 1.6% of those without AF (p<0.001). Multivariable analyses showed that AF was an independent predictor of late CV events (hazard ratio (HR): 1.5; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09-2.0). CONCLUSION: AF is common in European patients with symptomatic PAD and is independently associated with a worse 2-year CV outcome.

Antiretroviral therapy during pregnancy and premature birth: analysis of Swiss data

Background There is an ongoing debate as to whether combined antiretroviral treatment (cART) during pregnancy is an independent risk factor for prematurity in HIV-1-infected women. Objective The aim of the study was to examine (1) crude effects of different ART regimens on prematurity, (2) the association between duration of cART and duration of pregnancy, and (3) the role of possibly confounding risk factors for prematurity. Method We analysed data from 1180 pregnancies prospectively collected by the Swiss Mother and Child HIV Cohort Study (MoCHiV) and the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). Results Odds ratios for prematurity in women receiving mono/dual therapy and cART were 1.8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.85–3.6] and 2.5 (95% CI 1.4–4.3) compared with women not receiving ART during pregnancy (P=0.004). In a subgroup of 365 pregnancies with comprehensive information on maternal clinical, demographic and lifestyle characteristics, there was no indication that maternal viral load, age, ethnicity or history of injecting drug use affected prematurity rates associated with the use of cART. Duration of cART before delivery was also not associated with duration of pregnancy. Conclusion Our study indicates that confounding by maternal risk factors or duration of cART exposure is not a likely explanation for the effects of ART on prematurity in HIV-1-infected women.

A sequential Cox approach for estimating the causal effect of treatment in the presence of time-dependent confounding applied to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

When estimating the effect of treatment on HIV using data from observational studies, standard methods may produce biased estimates due to the presence of time-dependent confounders. Such confounding can be present when a covariate, affected by past exposure, is both a predictor of the future exposure and the outcome. One example is the CD4 cell count, being a marker for disease progression for HIV patients, but also a marker for treatment initiation and influenced by treatment. Fitting a marginal structural model (MSM) using inverse probability weights is one way to give appropriate adjustment for this type of confounding. In this paper we study a simple and intuitive approach to estimate similar treatment effects, using observational data to mimic several randomized controlled trials. Each 'trial' is constructed based on individuals starting treatment in a certain time interval. An overall effect estimate for all such trials is found using composite likelihood inference. The method offers an alternative to the use of inverse probability of treatment weights, which is unstable in certain situations. The estimated parameter is not identical to the one of an MSM, it is conditioned on covariate values at the start of each mimicked trial. This allows the study of questions that are not that easily addressed fitting an MSM. The analysis can be performed as a stratified weighted Cox analysis on the joint data set of all the constructed trials, where each trial is one stratum. The model is applied to data from the Swiss HIV cohort study.