Resilience and adaptation of small and medium-sized enterprises to flood risk

Purpose – The UK has experienced a number of flood events in recent years, and the intensity and frequency of such events are forecast to further increase in future due to changing climatic conditions. Accordingly, enhancing the resilience of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) – which form an important segment in a society – to flood risk, has emerged as an important issue. However, SMEs often tend to underestimate the risk of flooding which tends to have a low priority in their business agenda. The purpose of this paper is to undertake an investigation of adaptation to the risk of flooding considering community-level measures, individual-level property protection, and business continuity and resilience measures. Design/methodology/approach – A total of four short case studies were conducted among SMEs to identify their response to flood risk, and what measures have been undertaken to manage the risk of flooding. Findings – It was observed that SMEs have implemented different property-level protection measures and generic business continuity/risk management measures, based on their requirements, to achieve a desired level of protection. Practical implications – SMEs are likely to positively respond to property-level adaptation following a post-flood situation. It is important that information such as costs/benefits of such measures and different options available are made accessible to SMEs affected by a flood event. Social implications – Implementation of property-level adaptation measures will contribute towards the long term adaptation of the existing building stock to changing climatic conditions. Originality/value – The paper contributes towards policy making on flood risk adaptation and SME decision making, and informs policy makers and practitioners.

A conceptual framework for understanding resilience of construction SMEs to extreme weather events

Purpose Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs), which form a significant portion in many economies, are some of the most vulnerable to the impact of Extreme Weather Events (EWEs). This is of particular importance to the construction industry, as an overarching majority of construction companies are SMEs who account for the majority of employment and income generation within the industry. In the UK, previous research has identified construction SMEs as some of the worst affected by EWEs. Design/methodology/approach Given the recent occurrences of EWEs and predictions suggesting increases in both the intensity and frequency of EWEs in the future, improving the resilience of construction SMEs is vital for achieving a resilient construction industry. A conceptual framework is first developed which is then populated and expanded based on empirical evidence. Positioned within a pragmatic research philosophy, case study research strategy was adopted as the overall research strategy in undertaking this investigation. Findings Based on the findings of two in-depth case studies of construction SMEs, a framework was developed to represent EWE resilience of construction SMEs, where resilience was seen as a collective effect of vulnerability, coping strategies and coping capacities of SMEs, characteristics of the EWE and the wider economic climate. Originality/value The paper provides an original contribution towards the overarching agenda of the resilience of SMEs, and policy making in the area of EWE risk management by presenting a novel conceptual framework depicting the resilience of medium-sized construction companies.

Risk factors that predict maladaptive outcomes among sexually abused girls presenting for services at a community agency

The purpose of this study was to determine which factors predicted maladaptive outcomes in sexually abused children. Key factors were aggregated into four categories: abuse characteristics risk factors, individual-level risk factors, family disruption risk factors, and social disruption risk factors. It was hypothesized that (a) individual-level risk factors (e.g., school performance, child alcohol/substance abuse) and (b) abuse characteristics risk factors (e.g., longer duration/frequency of abuse, use of force/threats of force, intrafamilial abuse) would predict higher levels of trauma symptoms. Furthermore, it was hypothesized that (a) family disruption risk factors (e.g., family alcohol/substance use, family psychopathology) and (b) social disruption risk factors (e.g., parental divorce, homelessness, witnessing homicide or violence) would moderate the impact of prior sexual abuse and predict higher levels of trauma symptoms. ^ The participants were 110 female children (5 to 18 years old) presenting for treatment for sexual abuse at a community agency (The Journey Institute) in Miami, Florida. This study conducted a retrospective analysis of an archival data set collected over a three-year period (1998–2001). The measures completed upon intake included The Journey Psychosocial Assessment and The Trauma Symptom Checklist for Children (TSCC; Briere, 1996). Using Pearson correlations and hierarchical multiple regression analysis, this study found that abuse characteristics risk factors and individual-level risk factors were predictive of maladaptive outcomes in this sample of sexually abused girls. However, no moderating effects were found for family disruption risk factors or social disruption risk factors. Therefore, the results of these analyses provided support for the contention that abuse characteristics and individual-level risk factors were appropriate targets for treatment for sexually abused girls. Moreover, limitations of this study, implications for treatment, and directions for future research were discussed. ^

(Table 1) Mean statistics for acoustic parameters measured for both brown skua (Catharacta antarctica lonnbergi) sexes

Bird vocalisations are often essential for sex recognition, especially in species that show little morphological sex dimorphism. Brown skuas (Catharacta antarctica lonnbergi), which exhibit uniform plumage across both sexes, emit three main calls: the long call, the alarm call and the contact call. We tested the potential for sex recognition in brown skua calls of 42 genetically sexed individuals by analysing 8-12 acoustic parameters in the temporal and frequency domains of each call type. For every call type, we failed to find sex differences in any of the acoustic parameters measured. Stepwise discriminant function analysis (DFA) revealed that sexes cannot be unambiguously classified, with increasing uncertainty of correct classification from contact calls to long calls to alarm calls. Consequently, acoustic signalling is probably not the key mechanism for sex recognition in brown skuas.

Dive depth profile and at surface behaviour data of emperor penguins from Pointe Géologie, Adélie Land, Antarctica, from expedition DDU 2005

Adult male and female emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) were fitted with satellite transmitters at Pointe-Géologie (Adélie Land), Dumont d'Urville Sea coast, in November 2005. Nine of 30 data sets were selected for analyses to investigate the penguins' diving behaviour at high resolution (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.633708, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.633709, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.633710, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.633711). The profiles are in synchrony with foraging trips of the birds during austral spring (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472171, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472173, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472164, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472160, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472161). Corresponding high resolution winter data (n = 5; archived elsewhere) were provided by A. Ancel, Centre d'Ecologie et Physiologie Energétiques, CNRS, Strasbourg, France. Air-breathing divers tend to increase their overall dive duration with increasing dive depth. In most penguin species, this occurs due to increasing transit (descent and ascent) durations but also because the duration of the bottom phase of the dive increases with increasing depth. We interpreted the efficiency with which emperor penguins can exploit different diving depths by analysing dive depth profile data of nine birds studied during the early and late chick-rearing period in Adélie Land, Antarctica. Another eight datasets of dive depth and duration frequency recordings (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472150, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472152, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472154, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472155, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472142, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472144, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472146, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472147), which backup the analysed high resolution depth profile data, and dive depth and duration frequency recordings of another bird (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472156, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472148) did not match the requirement of high resolution for analyses. Eleven additional data sets provide information on the overall foraging distribution of emperor penguins during the period analysed (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472157, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472158, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472162, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472163, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472166, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472167, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472168, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472170, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472172, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472174, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.472175).

Alteração climática dos índices de estabilidade na Peninsula Iberica

Este trabalho tem como objetivo a comparação da intensidade, frequência e distribuição de um conjunto de índices de estabilidade atmosférica simulados entre o clima histórico (1986-2005) e um cenário climático (2081-2100) na Península Ibérica. Considerou-se o cenário de emissão de gases RCP8.5. Estes índices avaliam a instabilidade atmosférica que é um elemento fundamental e percursor no desenvolvimento de tempestades. Através dos seus valores limite, é possível estimar alterações na probabilidade de ocorrência de eventos extremos que se poderão desenvolver no clima futuro, relativamente ao histórico. Primeiro, utilizou-se um conjunto de simulações do WRF com dois forçamentos: reanálises do ERA-Interim e um modelo do Max Planck Institute. De seguida, foram calculados diferentes índices de estabilidade. A validação do modelo consistiu no cálculo das médias sazonais, da sua diferença e das respetivas PDFs dos índices simulados pelo WRF-MPI e WRF-ERA. Verifica-se uma sobrestimação do CAPE, SHR6km (vento de corte) e SWEAT simulados pelo WRF-MPI. No entanto, nos campos dos índices simulados pelos dois forçamentos para o período histórico, verifica-se que os padrões espaciais são semelhantes apesar das diferenças na intensidade. Como as alterações climáticas dos índices são avaliadas através de diferenças, estas discrepâncias não invalidam a utilização do modelo no futuro. Posteriormente foram estudadas as alterações climáticas dos índices através da comparação entre o clima histórico e futuro. Estima-se um aumento da intensidade do CAPE e uma diminuição (aumento) da frequência de eventos com intensidade reduzida (elevada). Estas alterações são robustas no verão e outono. Também é esperado um aumento da intensidade do SHR6km na primavera e inverno tal como da frequência de SHR6km elevado nestas estações e uma redução da intensidade e da frequência de eventos com SHR6km elevado nas restantes. Haverá um possível aumento robusto da intensidade do SWEAT no verão e outono, bem como da frequência destes valores. Concluindo, será provável um aumento da frequência dos ambientes favoráveis ao desenvolvimento de tempestades, devido a uma maior intensidade e probabilidade de ocorrência de valores extremos do CAPE e do SWEAT. No entanto, a redução do SHR6km, poderá diminuir a organização das tempestades e o seu tempo de vida.

Professional exposure to fungal pathogens: an update to exposure conditions and exposure measurement

In many occupational settings an exposure to fungi occurs. Fungal exposure may occur for instance in the form of dermatocytes, yeasts or mold. Associated to the fungi themselves an exposure to cell wall components like ß(1 ? 3)-D-glucans, to mycotoxins or to microbial volatile compounds can occur. Health hazards may differ across species because fungi may produce different allergens and mycotoxins, and some species can infect humans. Occupational settings are often characterized by special exposure conditions with respect to duration, frequency and especially to the level of exposure resulting at least sometimes to high or very high fungal exposure. Because of these special conditions occupational settings are suitable for epidemiologic studies. However, the knowledge about occupational exposure to fungi and associated compounds like mycotoxins is still fragmentary and not well disseminated. An indication for a high fungal exposure is for instance the handling of dry natural products like grain, hay or herbal plants with a high specific surface and the tendency to release dust during handling. The fungal components often form the determinative part of such dusts and might be a vehicle to respiratory airways. The authors will present results of exposure measurements of occupational settings and exposure conditions which are only rarely investigated.

Incomplete information games of conflict and collective action

My thesis consists of three essays that investigate strategic interactions between individuals engaging in risky collective action in uncertain environments. The first essay analyzes a broad class of incomplete information coordination games with a wide range of applications in economics and politics. The second essay draws from the general model developed in the first essay to study decisions by individuals of whether to engage in protest/revolution/coup/strike. The final essay explicitly integrates state response to the analysis. The first essay, Coordination Games with Strategic Delegation of Pivotality, exhaustively analyzes a class of binary action, two-player coordination games in which players receive stochastic payoffs only if both players take a ``stochastic-coordination action''. Players receive conditionally-independent noisy private signals about the normally distributed stochastic payoffs. With this structure, each player can exploit the information contained in the other player's action only when he takes the “pivotalizing action”. This feature has two consequences: (1) When the fear of miscoordination is not too large, in order to utilize the other player's information, each player takes the “pivotalizing action” more often than he would based solely on his private information, and (2) best responses feature both strategic complementarities and strategic substitutes, implying that the game is not supermodular nor a typical global game. This class of games has applications in a wide range of economic and political phenomena, including war and peace, protest/revolution/coup/ strike, interest groups lobbying, international trade, and adoption of a new technology. My second essay, Collective Action with Uncertain Payoffs, studies the decision problem of citizens who must decide whether to submit to the status quo or mount a revolution. If they coordinate, they can overthrow the status quo. Otherwise, the status quo is preserved and participants in a failed revolution are punished. Citizens face two types of uncertainty. (a) non-strategic: they are uncertain about the relative payoffs of the status quo and revolution, (b) strategic: they are uncertain about each other's assessments of the relative payoff. I draw on the existing literature and historical evidence to argue that the uncertainty in the payoffs of status quo and revolution is intrinsic in politics. Several counter-intuitive findings emerge: (1) Better communication between citizens can lower the likelihood of revolution. In fact, when the punishment for failed protest is not too harsh and citizens' private knowledge is accurate, then further communication reduces incentives to revolt. (2) Increasing strategic uncertainty can increase the likelihood of revolution attempts, and even the likelihood of successful revolution. In particular, revolt may be more likely when citizens privately obtain information than when they receive information from a common media source. (3) Two dilemmas arise concerning the intensity and frequency of punishment (repression), and the frequency of protest. Punishment Dilemma 1: harsher punishments may increase the probability that punishment is materialized. That is, as the state increases the punishment for dissent, it might also have to punish more dissidents. It is only when the punishment is sufficiently harsh, that harsher punishment reduces the frequency of its application. Punishment Dilemma 1 leads to Punishment Dilemma 2: the frequencies of repression and protest can be positively or negatively correlated depending on the intensity of repression. My third essay, The Repression Puzzle, investigates the relationship between the intensity of grievances and the likelihood of repression. First, I make the observation that the occurrence of state repression is a puzzle. If repression is to succeed, dissidents should not rebel. If it is to fail, the state should concede in order to save the costs of unsuccessful repression. I then propose an explanation for the “repression puzzle” that hinges on information asymmetries between the state and dissidents about the costs of repression to the state, and hence the likelihood of its application by the state. I present a formal model that combines the insights of grievance-based and political process theories to investigate the consequences of this information asymmetry for the dissidents' contentious actions and for the relationship between the magnitude of grievances (formulated here as the extent of inequality) and the likelihood of repression. The main contribution of the paper is to show that this relationship is non-monotone. That is, as the magnitude of grievances increases, the likelihood of repression might decrease. I investigate the relationship between inequality and the likelihood of repression in all country-years from 1981 to 1999. To mitigate specification problem, I estimate the probability of repression using a generalized additive model with thin-plate splines (GAM-TPS). This technique allows for flexible relationship between inequality, the proxy for the costs of repression and revolutions (income per capita), and the likelihood of repression. The empirical evidence support my prediction that the relationship between the magnitude of grievances and the likelihood of repression is non-monotone.

Head repositioning accuracy in patients with neck pain and asymptomatic subjects: concurrent validity, influence of motion speed, motion direction and target distance

Background: Cervicocephalic kinesthetic deficiencies have been demonstrated in patients with chronic neck pain (NP). On the other hand, authors emphasized the use of different motion speeds for assessing functional impairment of the cervical spine. Purpose: The objectives of this study were (1) to investigate the head repositioning accuracy in NP patients and control subjects and (2) to assess the influence of target distance, motion speed, motion direction and pain. Materials and methods: Seventy-one subjects (36 healthy subjects and 35 NP patients; age 30–55 years) performed the head repositioning test (HRT) at two different speeds for horizontal and vertical movements and at two different distances. For each condition, six consecutive trials were sampled. Results: The study showed the validity and reproducibility of the HRT, confirming a dysfunctional threshold of 4.5°. Normative values of head repositioning error up to 3.6° and 7.1° were identified for healthy and NP subjects, respectively. A distance of 180 cm from the target and a natural motion speed increased HRT accuracy. Repositioning after extension movement showed a significantly larger error in both groups. Intensity, duration of pain as well as pain level did not significantly alter head repositioning error. Conclusions: The assessment of proprioceptive performance in healthy and NP subjects allowed the validation of the HRT. The HRT is a simple, not expensive and fast test, easily implementable in daily practice to assess and monitor treatment and evolution of proprioceptive cervical deficits.

Neurokinin-2 receptor levels correlate with intensity, frequency, and duration of pain in chronic pancreatitis

OBJECTIVE: Generation and maintenance of pain in chronic pancreatitis (CP) have been shown to be partially attributable to neuroimmune interactions, which involve neuropeptides such as substance P (SP). So far, expression of SP receptors NK-2R, NK-3R, the SP-encoding gene preprotachykinin A (PPT-A), and the SP degradation enzyme neutral endopeptidase (NEP) and their relation to pain in CP have not been determined. METHODS: Tissue samples from patients with CP (n = 25) and from healthy donors (n = 20) were analyzed for PPT-A, NK-2R, NK-3R, and NEP expression using quantitative RT-PCR. NEP protein levels were examined by immunoblot analysis and its localization was determined using immunohistochemistry. A scoring system was used to grade the extent of fibrosis on hematoxylin and eosin- and Masson-Trichrome-stained sections. Messenger RNA levels and the extent of pain were analyzed for correlations. RESULTS: In CP tissues, NK-2R and PPT-A expression was increased, whereas NK-3R and NEP mRNA levels were comparable with normal pancreas. Overexpression of NK-2R was related to the intensity, frequency, and duration of pain in CP patients. NK-1R and NEP expression was significantly related to the extent of fibrosis. CONCLUSIONS: Expression of NK-2R and PPT-A is increased in CP and is associated with pain. Failure to up-regulate NEP may contribute to the disruption of the neuropeptides loop balance in CP and thus may exacerbate the severe pain syndrome.

Endurance exercise and DNA stability: Is there a link to duration and intensity?

It is commonly accepted that regular moderate intensity physical activity reduces the risk of developing many diseases. Counter intuitively, however, evidence also exists for oxidative stress resulting from acute and strenuous exercise. Enhanced formation of reactive oxygen and nitrogen species may lead to oxidatively modified lipids, proteins and nucleic acids and possibly disease. Currently, only a few studies have investigated the influence of exercise on DNA stability and damage with conflicting results, small study groups and the use of different sample matrices or methods and result units. This is the first review to address the effect of exercise of various intensities and durations on DNA stability, focusing on human population studies. Furthermore, this article describes the principles and limitations of commonly used methods for the assessment of oxidatively modified DNA and DNA stability. This review is structured according to the type of exercise conducted (field or laboratory based) and the intensity performed (i.e. competitive ultra/endurance exercise or maximal tests until exhaustion). The findings presented here suggest that competitive ultra-endurance exercise (>4h) does not induce persistent DNA damage. However, when considering the effects of endurance exercise (<4h), no clear conclusions could be drawn. Laboratory studies have shown equivocal results (increased or no oxidative stress) after endurance or exhaustive exercise. To clarify which components of exercise participation (i.e. duration, intensity and training status of subjects) have an impact on DNA stability and damage, additional carefully designed studies combining the measurement of DNA damage, gene expression and DNA repair mechanisms before, during and after exercise of differing intensities and durations are required.

A Multi frequency study of Radio Intensity Variations For Active Galactic Nuclei of Different Optical Classes

A study of radio intensity variations at seven frequencies in the range 0.3 to 90 GHz for compact extragalactic radio sources classified as BL Lacs and high- and low-optical polarization quasars (HPQs and LPQs) is presented. This include the results of flux-density monitoring of 33 compact sources for three years at 327 MHz with the Ooty Synthesis Radio Telescope. The degrees of 'short-term' (tau less than about 1 yr) variability for the three optical types are found to be indistinguishable at low frequencies (less than 1 GHz), pointing to an extrinsic origin for the low-frequency variability. At high frequencies, a distinct dependence on optical type is present, the variability increasing from LPQs, through HPQs to BL Lacs. This trend persists even when only sources with ultra-flat radio spectra (alpha greater than -0.2) are considered. Implications of this for the phenomenon of high-frequency variability and the proposed unification schemes for different optical types of active galactic nuclei are discussed.

Decreasing intensity of monsoon low-frequency intraseasonal variability over India

Understanding the changing nature of the intraseasonal oscillatory (ISO) modes of Indian summer monsoon manifested by active and break phase, and their association with extreme rainfall events are necessary for probabilistic estimation of flood-related risks in a warming climate. Here, using ground-based observed rainfall, we define an index to measure the strength of monsoon ISOs and show that the relative strength of the northward-propagating low-frequency ISO (20-60 days) modes have had a significant decreasing trend during the past six decades, possibly attributed to the weakening of large-scale circulation in the region during monsoon season. This reduction is compensated by a gain in synoptic-scale (3-9 days) variability. The decrease in low-frequency ISO variability is associated with a significant decreasing trend in the percentage of extreme events during the active phase of the monsoon. However, this decrease is balanced by significant increasing trends in the percentage of extreme events in the break and transition phases. We also find a significant rise in the occurrence of extremes during early and late monsoon months, mainly over eastern coastal regions. Our study highlights the redistribution of rainfall intensity among periodic (low-frequency) and non-periodic (extreme) modes in a changing climate scenario.